Zach Dezenzo

Astros Looking For Starting Pitching

By Darragh McDonald | June 3, 2025 at 4:56pm CDT

The Astros lost yet another rotation member to the surgeon’s table recently, with Ronel Blanco requiring Tommy John surgery. He will officially undergo that procedure this Friday, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is on the lookout for more starting pitching.

It shouldn’t come as a shock that Houston has this focus. They currently have six viable starting pitchers on the injured list, most of them unlikely to return anytime soon. Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched in the majors in over two years now, as he has repeatedly hit setbacks in his attempts to return from his own Tommy John surgery. Cristian Javier underwent that procedure in June of last year. Hayden Wesneski required it last month and, as mentioned, Blanco is next. In addition to all those Tommy Johns, J.P. France is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and has an uncertain timeline.

Spencer Arrighetti is also on the IL, though he hasn’t required surgery. He suffered a right thumb fracture in a bizarre accident, getting struck by an errant ball while throwing on the field during batting practice. That means he could be able to return quicker than the guys who did require surgery, though he’s not especially close either. Manager Joe Espada said last week that the righty is now out of the cast and playing catch, per Leah Vann of chron.com. He suffered his fracture almost two months ago and will presumably need to ramp up his throwing program before going on a rehab assignment for a few weeks.

That leaves the Astros with a very top-heavy rotation in the short term. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are a fantastic one-two punch at the front but it gets flimsy behind them. Lance McCullers Jr. is back after his own two-year-plus injury odyssey and has made five starts thus far with mixed results. He is obviously talented but it’s anyone’s guess what to expect from him now after such a lengthy absence.

Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon currently have two rotation spots but they have less than 60 big league innings pitched combined. AJ Blubaugh and Brandon Walter are also inexperienced arms on the 40-man, currently on optional assignment. Jason Alexander is also on the 40-man, though he’s a 32-year-old veteran swingman. Miguel Ullola is a notable prospect but he’s not on the roster and has only 36 Triple-A innings under his belt so far.

Taken all together, it’s understandable that the front office wants to add to this group. Doing so this far in advance of the July 31st trade deadline will be a challenge. Most clubs prefer to hang onto their players until closer to the deadline to see if they can hang in the playoff race. Even those teams with pitchers to offer usually prefer to wait with the hope that the pressure of the deadline will drive up prices. To get a major deal done earlier usually comes at a premium.

Even as the deadline approaches, the Astros will probably have to walk a fine line. They have clearly been trying to avoid paying the competitive balance tax this year. While they made some notable offseason additions such as signing Christian Walker, they also moved some money around by flipping Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly to the Cubs in separate deals. RosterResource puts their CBT number at just under $236MM, which puts them about $5MM away from this year’s $241MM base threshold.

Assuming they still want to stay under that line, they will have to avoid taking on significant salary in the coming weeks. Asking another club to eat money in a deal could help them in that regard, though that usually means having to pay a higher price in terms of prospect capital. Houston’s farm system is generally considered one of the weaker ones in the sport, so that could be a tricky balancing act.

Elsewhere on the roster, infielder/outfielder Zach Dezenzo landed on the 10-day IL a few days ago due to left hand inflammation. The club told reporters today, including Rome, that Dezenzo has a capsule sprain. He will be resting for the next two weeks and will get more imaging done at that time. Even if declared healthy at that point, he will presumably need to take some time to get back into game shape, either via some live batting practice or a rehab assignment.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images.

Astros Promote Jacob Melton

By Nick Deeds | May 31, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

June 1: The Astros today announced Melton’s promotion to the big leagues. In corresponding moves, Dezenzo was placed on the 10-day injured list due to left hand inflammation while right-hander Ronel Blanco was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

May 31: The Astros are poised to select the contract of outfielder Jacob Melton, per a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. A corresponding move is not yet known, but Houston will need to create room on both the 40-man and active rosters in order to promote Melton.

Melton, 24, was Houston’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. He is rated as the club’s #2 prospect by MLB Pipeline and became the club’s top prospect according to Baseball America’s ranking when fellow youngster Cam Smith graduated from prospect status earlier this month. Scouts have typically viewed Melton as a roughly average offensive performer, with above average raw power and solid bat-to-ball skills that are held back by an aggressive approach at the plate that leads to poor swing decisions and struggles identifying certain offspeed pitches.

Those flaws at the plate may restrict Melton’s offensive upside, but he’s universally lauded as a solid contributor both in the field and on the basepaths. Additionally, whatever concerns scouts may have about Melton’s approach haven’t stopped him from succeeding in the minors to this point. In 17 games at the Triple-A level so far this year, Melton has hit an impressive .254/.371/.508. That’s good for a 132 wRC+ even in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. Given those solid numbers, it’s not hard to see why the Astros have decided to give their young outfielder a shot at the big league level.

The timing of Melton’s promotion is especially prudent considering Houston’s current lineup situation. The switch-hitting Victor Caratini has been the club’s only regular hitter who bats from the left side ever since Yordan Alvarez went on the injured list in late April. Meanwhile, center fielder Jake Meyers is the club’s only true outfielder on the roster at the moment; longtime second baseman Jose Altuve has begun to split time between left field, DH, and the keystone this year, while both Smith and Zach Dezenzo have become fixtures in the corner outfield mix as well despite spending the vast majority of their minor league careers at third base.

Chas McCormick was also on the roster as a true outfielder alongside Meyers, but he was placed on the injured list today due to an oblique strain and replaced by infielder Shay Whitcomb on the roster. Altuve, Smith, and Dezenzo may have been enough to handle the outfield corners even without McCormick, but Dezenzo left today’s game with what the organization referred to as “left hand discomfort” and (according to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) is scheduled to undergo imagine tomorrow morning. With Dezenzo potentially out as well, it makes plenty of sense for Houston to get a lefty bat back into the lineup and shore up an outfield mix in desperate need of reinforcements by bringing Melton into the fold.

Astros Considering Time In Center Field For Cam Smith

By Darragh McDonald | April 23, 2025 at 5:53pm CDT

The Astros are considering some time in center field for Cam Smith, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome points out that nothing is imminent and that the club isn’t planning on making Smith an everyday center fielder. It’s more about adding some extra versatility, giving the club the ability to perhaps put someone like Zach Dezenzo in right from time to time.

The club has already been aggressive with Smith. A third base prospect, the Astros moved him to right field during spring training since they have Isaac Paredes at the hot corner. Smith performed well enough to crack the Opening Day roster as the everyday right fielder, despite having almost no experience there. He was also just short on professional experience in general. He was only just drafted by the Cubs last summer before getting into 32 minor league games in the second half of 2024. Only five of those were at the Double-A level and none at Triple-A. He and Paredes both came to the Astros in the offseason trade that sent Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.

All things considered, Smith has taken well to all the aggression. He has a .226/.304/.403 line to start his big league career. His 29% strikeout rate is on the high side but he has three home runs, helping him to a 109 wRC+. It’s hard to read much into a small sample of glovework but both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average consider Smith to be above par in the field so far.

The Astros are clearly happy with the results and feel confident enough in his abilities that they are given him yet another test. Per Rome, they have started getting him some center field reps in pre-game workouts. “When you break down what makes a good center fielder, you’re going to see reactions, routes, speed and an arm. So far, he’s shown the ability to do all those things,” outfield coach Jason Bell tells Rome. “I know it’s early, but from the early signs, you can see the chance that he would have to do that if that was a possibility.”

Rome mentions that this could be a way to add some extra offense on occasion. Houston’s regular center fielder is Jake Meyers, who is a strong defender but has a career batting line of .230/.293/.368 in 1,250 plate appearances, which translates to an 87 wRC+.

Occasionally moving Smith over to center would allow the Astros to bench Meyers and get a different bat into the lineup. Rome mentions Dezenzo as one such possibility. He has mostly played first base in the big leagues but has also seen some brief time at second, third and in the outfield corners. His .238/.282/.363 batting line isn’t better than Meyers’ but he’s only received 85 big league plate appearances. Over 2023 and 2024, he stepped to the plate 636 times in the minors with a .303/.384/.517 line and 139 wRC+.

Getting Dezenzo into the outfield for Meyers could perhaps add a bit more offense but would be a notable gamble defensively. The club is using former second baseman Jose Altuve in left field, so an outfield alignment of Altuve/Smith/Dezenzo would effectively involve three converted infielders. Meyers, on the other hand, has tallied 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 38 Outs Above Average in his career. Having two of those infielders out there with an excellent defender like Meyers is already a bit of a gamble but this new consideration would be pushing that even farther.

It’s a plan that is all still experimental and Rome notes it’s entirely possible Smith never plays in center, but it’s notable that the club is tinkering as guys like Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz and Yordan Alvarez are all scuffling at the plate.

Cam Smith To Make Astros’ Roster

By Darragh McDonald | March 25, 2025 at 11:57pm CDT

Prospect Cam Smith is going to make the Astros’ Opening Day roster as their right fielder, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The youngster isn’t yet on the 40-man roster and they will need a spot for him, as well as Rafael Montero and Steven Okert. They have two openings already and several candidates for the 60-day injured list, meaning they shouldn’t have trouble finding room for all those guys.

It’s been an incredible whirlwind for Smith, who was a student at Florida State a year ago. In July, the Cubs selected him with the 14th overall pick in the draft and signed him to a $5,070,700 bonus. The Cubs put the young third baseman to work right away, getting him into 15 Single-A games, 12 at High-A and five at Double-A. He walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances and was only struck out at a 17.9% clip. He launched seven home runs in 134 plate appearances and had a combined .313/.396/.609 batting line.

That made him one of the top prospects in baseball going into 2025. The Cubs went into the winter with a loaded farm system but a big league roster that had struggled to push beyond the mushy middle, finishing at 83-79 in each of the past two years. They were looking for a big splash and the Astros were reportedly open to moving Kyle Tucker. He’s a tremendous player but was slated for free agency after 2025, with Houston seemingly having no hope of getting an extension done. The Astros also had a preference to avoid the competitive balance tax this year.

The Cubs, as mentioned, had a very strong farm system. That included a couple of infield guys who were viewed as ahead of Smith. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are both on many top 100 prospect lists and each of them reached the Triple-A level in 2024.

All those stars aligned to make the trade happen. The Astros sent Tucker to Wrigley in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and Smith. From the Cubs’ perspective, they were giving up a lot in the long term in order to make a big upgrade in 2025. Smith, as a prospect, was obviously a long play. Paredes still had three years of club control and would be an affordable replacement for Bregman at third base. Wesneski, with five years of club control, gave the club some affordable rotation depth.

Arguably, the Astros were making themselves worse in the short term, in order to save some money and come out ahead in the long run. Bregman and Tucker were two big losses. Parades could make up for some of Bregman’s production but likely not all. The outfield looked clearly worse on paper when compared to last year, especially with Yordan Alvarez slated to spend more time as the designated hitter. But beyond 2025, they weren’t going to have Tucker anyway. Now they would have Paredes, Wesneski and Smith’s contributions.

The short-term picture has changed a lot since camp opened. Smith put up a massive line of .342/.419/.711 in Grapefruit League action. As he started building those impressive numbers, there were whispers that the club wanted to get him work in right field, with Paredes blocking Smith’s natural third base position. It seems he has impressed the decision-makers enough to get the Opening Day nod, despite his very limited professional track record of just 32 professional games, none at the Triple-A level.

The outfield picture also changed in another way. Jose Altuve, who has been Houston’s second baseman for over a decade, is now going to be the left fielder. His glovework at the keystone was never great but has declined significantly as he has pushed into his mid-30s.

Overall, it’s a fascinating gambit for the Astros. Moving Alvarez out of left field makes sense, given all the health scares he has had over the years. Trading Tucker was also risky in its own way. Now they seem likely to feature a regular outfield mix of Jake Meyers in center, flanked by Altuve and Smith. Meyers hasn’t hit much in his career but is a strong defender. That glovework figures to be important, as he’ll be flanked by two converted infielders with no real experience on the grass.

The Altuve/Smith combo seems to have a good chance of outhitting a corner mix of Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick, which seemed like a possible Opening Day alignment as recently as a few weeks ago. Then again, even the best prospects often struggle when first promoted to the majors, so there are no guarantees Smith will immediately flourish. Still, it’s understandable bet on a higher ceiling.

If Smith does thrive, that would obviously help the club in 2025 but it could also benefit the Astros in another way. The current collective bargaining agreement added measures to discourage service time manipulation. One of those prospect promotion incentives is that clubs can receive an extra draft pick just after the first round under certain conditions. If a player is on two of the three top 100 lists from Baseball America, ESPN or MLB.com, they are PPI eligible if their club promotes them early enough in the season to earn a full service year. If such a player wins Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting in their pre-arbitration years, the club earns an extra pick. Smith is ranked 55th overall at BA, 73rd at ESPN and 59th at MLB.com and is therefore eligible.

Turning to a few other roster decisions for the Astros, Zach Dezenzo will get a bench spot but Cooper Hummel will not, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Hummel is out of options, so he should be designated for assignment or traded in the coming days.

Hummel has an awful .159/.255/.275 batting line in the majors but has been much better in the minors and has interesting defensive versatility. He has a .285/.419/.480 line over the past four minor league seasons and hit .316/.435/.447 in camp this year. Defensively, he’s an option at all four corner spots. He didn’t play behind the plate in 2024 but did in previous seasons. That could make him attractive to other clubs but he cleared waivers in April of 2024 when he still had an option remaining.

One final bench spot will come down to Brendan Rodgers or Zack Short, manager Joe Espada tells Rome. Both players were signed to minor league deals, so that will be another 40-man spot the team will need to open. But as mentioned, they have lots of 60-day IL candidates and should be fine there.

Images courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

Astros Notes: Bregman, Dezenzo, McCormick

By Anthony Franco | November 5, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

The Astros have made no secret about their hope of retaining Alex Bregman. General manager Dana Brown reiterated that optimism when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this afternoon.

“Our biggest priority is third base, without a doubt. We’d love to have Alex Bregman back. It’s our biggest priority,” Brown said (links via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The GM added that the Astros have had “productive conversations” with the Boras Corporation, though he didn’t elaborate on the status of talks or specify whether the team has actually made an offer. ESPN’s Alden González wrote in early October that Houston was preparing to do so in the near future.

The Astros don’t have many options to step in at third base if Bregman walks. Re-signing him will almost certainly require the biggest investment in franchise history, though, which casts real doubt about whether they’ll be able to get anything done. Brown himself acknowledged a few weeks ago that the team may need to be “creative” in managing payroll. The Astros haven’t gone beyond six years under owner Jim Crane. Bregman would probably require breaking that precedent. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $182MM deal in ranking him as the offseason’s #3 free agent.

Brown suggested the Astros were open to going beyond six years in the right circumstances, though it’s clear the organization tends to shy away from those contracts. “I don’t think we’re going to be in the business of giving multiple seven-year deals or multiple eight-year deals. But if there’s an opportunity to sign a guy that we feel is going to be good for six or seven years, I think Jim would do it,” the GM said.

Houston faces questions in the opposite corner infield spot. First base was an issue all season. The Astros pulled the plug on the ill-fated José Abreu deal a few months into the year, but Jon Singleton didn’t perform well either. Brown acknowledged the team needed better production at that spot. It’s unclear whether they’re willing to go back into free agency for someone like Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo as they remain on the hook for the final season of the Abreu deal.

Brown pointed to Zach Dezenzo as a potential internal option. The 24-year-old hit well in a small sample in Triple-A. That didn’t translate in an even briefer MLB look. Dezenzo slumped to a .242/.277/.371 slash over his first 19 MLB contests. He’s a career .295/.377/.499 hitter over parts of three seasons in the minors. Dezenzo has experience at both corner infield spots and could factor into the third base mix if Bregman walks, though he’s probably a better defensive fit at first.

Turning to the outfield, Brown indicated the Astros planned to tender an arbitration contract to Chas McCormick (X link with video from Ari Alexander of KPRC 2). The right-handed hitter had a rough season, hitting .211/.271/.306 in 94 games. McCormick had posted very strong numbers through his first three big league campaigns, so it’s not much of a surprise that Houston plans to bring him back on a relatively modest salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.3MM sum. Brown added that the Astros could look for a left-handed hitting outfielder to potentially spell McCormick (and presumably Jake Meyers) against righty pitching.

Astros Reinstate Kyle Tucker From Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | September 6, 2024 at 3:55pm CDT

The Astros have reinstated outfielder Kyle Tucker from the 60-day injured list. Infielder Zach Dezenzo has been optioned to Triple-A in order to open an active roster spot. Left-hander Parker Mushinski has been designated for assignment to create room on the 40-man. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the moves on X.

Tucker got out to a brilliant start this season, hitting 19 home runs in 60 games while walking more than he struck out. He slashed .266/.395/.584 for a wRC+ of 175 despite a subpar .245 batting average on balls in play. On June 3, that wRC+ was third in the majors behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto despite some poor treatment from the baseball gods.

But it was on that June 3 date that Tucker began a strange saga. He fouled a ball of his shin and landed on the 10-day injured list. The club continued to described his injury as a “deep bruise of the bone” or a “shin contusion,” all while seeming to expect him to make a quick return. His absence turned to weeks and then months as fans continued to wonder how a simple bruise could lead to such an extended absence.

Just a few days ago, Rome reported that Tucker had suffered a fracture, despite continued denials from general manager Dana Brown. After that report came out, Brown and Tucker both admitted that the player had indeed suffered a fracture.

Though the reasons for that obfuscation aren’t clear, the larger point is that Tucker is now back. He didn’t go on a rehab assignment and is in the designated hitter slot tonight, so perhaps the club is easing him back after a long layoff. Maybe he will experience some rust but he will obviously be a huge boon to the Astros if he can get anywhere near his pre-injury form.

Despite the lineup boost, he will give the club a bit less lineup flexibility if he stays in that DH slot. Yordan Alvarez has been the DH more than anyone else but he will perhaps have to play left field more regularly. It will also be harder to put Alex Bregman in there, as he has been battling a minor elbow issue of late. The club also likes to have Yainer Diaz as the DH sometimes when Victor Caratini is behind the plate, keeping Diaz’s bat in the lineup. Perhaps that will happen less often as a result as well.

The outfield group currently consists of Alvarez, Jake Meyers and Ben Gamel, with Chas McCormick and Jason Heyward also in the mix. Whenever Tucker is ready to take the field again, he will push into that group and take some of their playing time, but also free up the DH spot once again.

Mushinski, 28, could perhaps join a new club for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Astros in 2017 and was added to their 40-man roster in 2022. He has served as a frequently-optioned depth arm for them since then. He has tossed 33 major league innings over those three campaigns with a 5.45 earned run average. His 8.1% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate are close to average but he’s only struck out 17.4% of batters faced.

His minor league work has been more impressive. In that same three-year span, he has tossed 114 2/3 innings for Triple-A Sugar Land, putting up a 3.30 ERA despite that club playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He has a 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate in that sample.

The Astros will have to put Mushinski on waivers in the coming days. He can still be optioned for what remains of this year but will be out of options next season. If he does get claimed, he has less than two years of service time and can therefore be controlled for five seasons beyond this one. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he wouldn’t have the right to elect free agency since he has never been previously outrighted and has less than three years of service time.

Astros Select Zach Dezenzo

By Darragh McDonald | August 6, 2024 at 3:05pm CDT

3:05pm: The Astros have now officially announced that they have selected Dezenzo. In corresponding moves, they optioned outfielder Trey Cabbage to Triple-A Sugar Land and designated right-hander Dylan Coleman for assignment. Coleman was acquired from the Royals in an offseason trade but has just one big league appearance for Houston, having spent the rest of the year on optional assignment. In his 36 Triple-A innings, he has a 6.50 ERA with a 23.9% walk rate.

2:25pm: The Astros are going to call up infielder Zach Dezenzo, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. They will need to make corresponding moves to open space for him on the active and 40-man rosters.

Dezenzo, 24, gets the major league call for the first time. A 12th-round pick of the Astros in 2022, he has made a quick rise through the farm system. He split his time between High-A and Double-A last year, hitting 18 home runs in 94 games. His 25.9% strikeout rate was a bit high but he also drew walks at a solid 10.2% clip. His combined batting line was .304/.383/.531 for a 141 wRC+, though with an unsustainable .382 batting average on balls in play.

Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him #5 in the club’s system. They noted that his bat-to-ball skills are low but he makes good decisions and crushes the pitches that he does make contact with, leading to strong exit velocities.

He began this year on the shelf due to a wrist issue and began a rehab assignment at the Complex League in early June. It was around that time that FanGraphs ranked him #6 in the system, suggesting he could wind up like Eugenio Suárez as a guy who strikes out a lot but puts the ball over the fence enough to still be a useful contributor, though perhaps in streaky fashion.

Once he overcame his wrist issue, Dezenzo returned to Double-A and hit a tepid .222/.308/.370 in 22 games there but was nonetheless promoted to Triple-A and debuted at that level on July 24, less than two weeks ago. He has since been on a massive heater, hitting .391/.472/.739 in his 11 Triple-A games. He won’t maintain a .438 BABIP but it’s encouraging that he has four home runs and an 11.3% walk rate in that time.

It’s an aggressive move for the Astros to promote him despite his lack of a track record, but it reflects how much they have struggled to get production out of their first base slot. José Abreu had an awful time this year, struggling so much that he agreed to be optioned for a time. Around that stint on the farm, he hit .124/.167/.195 in the majors and was released in the middle of June.

Jon Singleton has picked up the bulk of playing time at first base in Abreu’s absence but has hit .230/.311/.354 this year for a 91 wRC+. That’s not disastrous production, only 9% below league average overall, but clubs generally expect first base to be a position where they can count on strong offensive output. He’s also been slumping of late, with a line of .167/.196/.315 dating back to July 13.

Dezenzo has been splitting his time between third base and first base this year but it seems unlikely he’ll see significant time at the hot corner with the presence of Alex Bregman and the struggles at the other end of the diamond. It’s a bold move, with Dezenzo having just 85 Double-A games and 11 Triple-A contests on his ledger but the Astros are in a tight race and didn’t get any first base help prior to the deadline.

Houston started out dreadfully this year but managed to climb back into the race. They are currently five games back of a Wild Card spot but just a game and a half behind the Mariners in the West division. Perhaps Dezenzo can give them a bit of a boost if he can quickly acclimate to big league pitching. It’s also possible that this is a bit of an audition for next year, with Bregman slated for free agency. Prospect reports generally cast some doubt on Dezenzo’s ability to stick at third, which will likely be a long-term question, but the first test will be handling himself at the plate.

AL West Notes: Carter, Rendon, Wilson, Astros

By Mark Polishuk | August 4, 2024 at 4:24pm CDT

Rangers GM Chris Young stated earlier this week that Evan Carter’s recurring back problems would likely end his 2024 season, and Carter confirmed as much when speaking with Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and other reporters today. Carter said he doesn’t think surgery will be required to address the lumbar strain in his back, and he should have a normal offseason and a regular path to the start of Spring Training once he begins swinging in 9-10 weeks.

Carter’s official rookie season will now end with 45 games played, and a .188/.272/.361 slash line over 162 plate appearances. It was a tough follow-up to Carter’s incredible run in 2023 after his late-season MLB debut, but hopefully a full offseason of rest and recovery can help him move past the back problems that ruined his year.

Big Hype Prospects: AFL Sleepers Edition

By Brad Johnson | October 2, 2023 at 7:35pm CDT

With the postseason looming, our prospect attention shifts out west where the Arizona Fall League is set to begin this evening. The rosters include several notable prospects. They’re joined by the usual smattering untouted, statistically effective players. Today, let’s skip the big names and focus on the guys fighting for recognition. Those with long memories will recall Edouard Julien’s emphatic AFL performance. “Big Hype” can be built in Arizona.

First, let’s back up and think about Julien’s platform last season. He played well at Double-A as a 23-year-old. In the past, that was on the old side of age-appropriate. Now, it’s just flat-out old for the level. A 23-year-old either dominates Double-A or isn’t considered a prospect (there are exceptions). He was arguably the top player in the AFL last season (Heston Kjerstad won the MVP). Julien went on to post a 2.8 WAR debut in the Majors over 408 plate appearances. High BABIPs are a key component of his success.

Notably, defense was and remains a concern with Julien. There are always a few players who slide under the radar because they have a good-not-great bat married to defensive concerns.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Damiano Palmegiani, 23, 3B, TOR (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 557 PA, 23 HR, 7 SB, .255/.364/.478

There’s some surface commonality between Palmegiani and Julien. They’re both disciplined hitters who produced big league-caliber exit velocities. Scouting reports go out of their way to question the defensive aspects of Palmegiani’s game. He mostly played first base at Triple-A after spending most of the season as the starting Double-A third baseman. Palmegiani also has a shaky hit tool. When he connects, it tends to be well-struck. However, between the discipline and a moderate swinging strike rate, there’s a chance nearly half his plate appearances will end without a batted ball. Barring a profile change, he’ll need high BABIPs just like Julien. Palmegiani is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Carter Baumler, 21, P, BAL (A)
(CPX/A) 17 IP, 11.12 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

While we don’t usually watch the AFL for pitchers, Baumler is an exception. A fifth-round pick in the abbreviated 2020 draft, Baumler’s career has been waylaid by injuries, mostly to his shoulder. He managed to return to the mound in late July and even faced 16 batters in his final regular season outing on September 7. He was once viewed as a future Top 100 prospect candidate. With health, he’s young enough to get back on track. He features a well-designed fastball-curve combo. He also shows a slider and changeup, both of which are in want of further development. Baumler is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Brainer Bonaci, 20, 2B/SS, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 350 PA, 11 HR, 7 SB, .297/.354/.464

Bonaci is on the Ramon Urias utility track. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter. I figure there aren’t many scenarios in which he’s left off the Red Sox roster. Bonaci is a well-regarded fielder, but he’s slow-footed. He’s likely limited to second and third base down the line. His bat is trending in a league-average direction. Given he’s a switch-hitter, the total sum is a useful player who fits well on any roster.

Zach Dezenzo, 23, 3B, HOU (AA)
(A+/AA) 410 PA, 18 HR, 22 SB, .304/.383/.531

Early in the season, Dezenzo was among the top minor league performers by wRC+. After beating up on High-A pitchers, he performed merely decently against Double-A arms. Even so, at least one source of mine believes Dezenzo is Top 100 prospect material. Another source says he has a hole in his swing. While there’s no question about the quality of his contact, the frequency of his contact could leave him in the Quad-A bubble. He’s likely in the AFL to work on defense. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Jakob Marsee, 22, OF, SD (AA)
(A+/AA) 568 PA, 16 HR, 46 SB, .274/.413/.428

Marsee reminds me of a lower-impact version of Julien, one whose future big league role will depend upon making good on the few opportunities he’s given. That he’ll receive such opportunities is of little doubt. He’s a disciplined hitter with a high rate of contact. As a lefty, he’s also on the strong side of any platoon considerations. Defensively, he’s considered fringy as a center fielder. He doesn’t have quite enough pop to excite evaluators about a corner outfield role. Still, he profiles as somebody who could post offensive numbers not unlike Julien’s debut. That’s a Major Leaguer, even if we’re only talking about a platoon bat on the Athletics. He’s likely in the AFL to generate trade interest. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Three More

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): You might recognize Lee from this past trade deadline when he was dealt from Philly to Detroit for Michael Lorenzen. A quad strain limited him to 32 post-trade plate appearances. Lee will be looking to make a strong impression on his new employers. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Kala’i Rosario, MIN (21): Rosario is one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL this season. He’s coming off a 21-homer campaign in High-A built around hard contact and plenty of pulled fly balls. He cut down on his swing-and-miss this year by being more patient. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz should be the odds-on favorite to lead the AFL in homers. He delivered 33 dingers this season split between Low- and High-A. With a strong AFL, he’s a fringe Top 100 prospect candidate. He’s also not Rule 5 eligible.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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Zach Dezenzo

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