Yanks Set Sights On Roberto Hernandez
Though relievers are always a hot deadline commodity, this year seems different. To hear Buster Olney tell it:
"The value of middle relievers (or set-up men, or whatever you want to call them) is increasing, like oil stock."
That’s no excuse for what Wayne Krivsky did, but bashing him isn’t productive. What is productive is cranking out the trade rumors like there’s no tomorrow.
According to Gotham Baseball, Roberto Hernandez is "the guy the Yankees would like to get." The 41 year-old righty signed a $2.75MM contract with the Bucs this winter. He has somehow managed a 3.10 ERA this season despite allowing more than 1.6 baserunners per inning. Last season with the Mets was Hernandez’s one decent season since 2000.
If Dave Littlefield can spin Hernandez into anything useful, we may see more of this trend. Non-contenders will snap up free agents like Aaron Fultz, Kent Mercker, Darren Oliver, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brian Meadows for a few million bucks and then peddle them come July. Maybe the Cubs should consider trading Bob Howry and Scott Eyre? If there’s another Austin Kearns to be had it’d be foolish not to.
The Gotham report also contains a rundown of various starters on the block and their chances at being dealt.
Oliver Perez Available?
Here’s a new one for ya, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll yesterday:
"One rumor from the last few days is that Oliver Perez and Ryan Doumit are being dangled to the Phillies."
Would this deal make a good fit? It seems a foregone conclusion that Mike Lieberthal is spending his last year as a Phillie, so the team does need to begin thinking long-term about its backstop. Doumit would be a decent option. Ronny Paulino has impressed the Pirates so far, and just a few weeks ago Jim Tracy indicated that Humberto Cota would start more often than Doumit for defensive purposes.
While I don’t doubt Doumit’s availability, the Phils would be well served to give Carlos Ruiz a crack at the job in 2007. Granted he’s not a super prospect at age 27, but an impressive 2005 at Triple A coupled with his current .386/.448/.663 line warrants a look.
Obviously, the Phillies need pitching. Their 4.99 team ERA is better than only the Giants. Their starters have been pretty much toasted outside of Brett Myers (though he has allowed more than 1.5 baserunners per inning so far). The hit rates on these guys are out of this world. If you subscribe to the idea that hit rate is largely influenced by defense and luck, you may expect these guys to turn it around.
I do know that Jon Lieber is better than his 6.87 ERA by a long shot. But Ryan Madson has failed in every aspect of pitching so far: hit, home run, and walk prevention, strikeout rate, you name it. I did not see that coming at all, especially after his sparkling spring. With Madson and Gavin Floyd getting smacked around consistently, the Phillies desperately need a reliable veteran to step in if they are to close the five game gap with the Mets. They also need to support their pitchers with better defense – they’re second from the bottom in defensive efficiency this year.
I don’t think Oliver Perez is the answer. Dejan Kovacevic’s April 3rd piece shows how the Pirates are playing it cool, but internally they have to be concerned about his lack of velocity. As the article says, heat was a main ingredient of Perez’s 2004 breakout. The Bucs can afford to sit around for at least a few more months to see if it comes back, but a contender like Philadelphia cannot.
The Phils are stacked with young pitchers like Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson, so I can’t see where an Oliver Perez project fits in. A Hamels callup, possibly this month, may be the shot in the arm the team needs. On the other hand, Perez is a Scott Boras client, and it’s not like Littlefield hasn’t given away star players in the past…
Red Sox After Craig Wilson?
Sometimes all it takes is an educated guess to put two and two together. Hell, maybe Theo and Dave got the idea from this site yesterday – sort of a GM matchmaker (alright, that’s wishful thinking). But it’s always interesting when speculation turns to real trade talks.
Yesterday I mentioned:
"If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them."
Then today in Rob Rossi’s article for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, he revealed that the Pirates are trying to trade Wilson for a starter, possibly Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo. For the Bucs, I like the idea. Sure, their offense could use a guy like Wilson, but if they must discard him they should at least solidify the rotation.
A Pittsburgh rotation of Clement/Duke/Perez/Maholm/Snell has a chance to be quite impressive. It might be five guys with ERAs hovering around 4, but that’s actually hard to find when the average NL starter has a 4.22 ERA.
The Red Sox seem to be anticipating an injury for Trot Nixon or a failure by Mike Lowell, and expecting at least one of the two is the safe play. The club needs a player like Wilson, who can handle both right field and first base and has an .851 career OPS.
Assuming the White Sox plan to hold on to Jose Contreras, I think they might have it right. That is, there’s nothing wrong with an overload of starting pitchers. The White Sox shouldn’t expect their front five to be completely healthy and effective once again. Similarly, the Red Sox don’t necessarily have a surplus with Arroyo/Beckett/Clement/Papelbon/Schilling/Wakefield/Wells all capable of starting. Yes, that’s seven pitchers, but three of them are injury risks and Papelbon is unproven.
In Defense Of The Jack Wilson Signing
Yesterday I noticed that the contract extension given by the Pirates to Jack Wilson was universally panned throughout the Internet. Maybe someone somewhere liked the deal, but I haven’t seen it in print yet.
While I won’t go as far as to say I liked this extension, I will say that I don’t mind it. Faint praise, yeah, but let’s not tear the Bucs a new one over this just yet.
I have to admit that the Pirates didn’t do a good job exploiting Wilson’s lousy year with the bat. He hit .257/.299/.363 in his age 27 season last year, right at career levels. You’d think they could’ve gotten him for 3/15 because of this. It’s not as if he was coming off his 2004 Silver Slugger season. But his agent snagged three years and $20.2MM with an $8.4MM option for 2010 and most folks chalked this one up as a typical Pirate mistake.
Let’s turn to my favorite new toy, Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Over Replacement Player. That metric says he’ll be worth $15,650,000 over the next three seasons. BP has him as on average a 3.6 win player over the next three seasons. Wilson was worth 6.9 wins in 2004 and 4.6 last year, so he can easily beat that projection. He only needs to beat their projection by four and a half million bucks worth of value spread out over the next three seasons.
Topping 2005 offensively shouldn’t be too tough for Wilson. He added 20 pounds this offseason, typically a good thing for hitters. I will admit, this could have an effect on his range in the field. Keep in mind that Wilson’s ’05 season was definitely affected by a December 2004 emergency appendectomy. He lost fifteen pounds during that surgery.
There are a million defensive stats out there; just take my word for it that Wilson is a defensive whiz. His glove probably comprises 90% of his value, so any offensive value is gravy. It’s not like there’s anything in the Pirates’ farm system that could possibly replace Wilson, even in year three of the deal. And it’s not like the market is bursting with 4.6 win shortstops; only eleven shortstops were better in 2005.
You want to pan a long-term contract? Start with Paul Konerko, Kevin Millwood, A.J. Burnett, and Johnny Damon. There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell their teams break even on those deals. Of course, breaking even overall matters a lot more to the Pirates than it does to the Yankees.
Pirates Interested In Sosa
Emailer Joe tipped me off to a blog referencing an article from a Dominican news service. The article discusses Pittsburgh’s interest in Sammy Sosa.
Despite my pathetic grasp on the Spanish language, here’s what I’ve pieced together from Rob Rossi’s article.
With Joe Randa in tow as the Pirates’ third baseman, they’d like to make one more free agent acquisition this winter. Now that first choice Eric Byrnes has a tentative agreement with the Diamondbacks, Sammy Sosa is the primary target for right field. Apparently several teams desire Sosa’s services (I must’ve translated that part wrong.)
The Pirates plan to bat Randa sixth, and they’d like Sosa to hit fourth or fifth in the lineup. Pirates’ management has the money available to sign Sosa. As far as I can tell, Rossi thinks the Pirates will be an improved team under the management of Jim Tracy. The reunion of Sean Casey and Joe Randa and improved defense are key components.
If there are any Spanish-speaking readers who’d like to offer corrections to my translation, I welcome it.
In case the Pirates missed it, Sosa hit a woeful .221/.295/.376 in 380 at-bats for the Orioles in 2005. It was his worst year since 1991, when he had a wispy mustache and hit .203/.240/.335 in 316 at-bats for the White Sox. Since I like to point out the hidden positives occasionally, Sosa did manage a .288/.370/.471 line in 104 at-bats against lefties in ’05. Honestly I think he would’ve made an entertaining platoonmate for Jacque Jones. Now that would’ve been humbling.
Anyway, signing Sosa would seem to make Craig Wilson the odd man out in Pittsburgh. The 29 year-old doesn’t deserve this fate, as he boasts a career line of .268/.363/.488 in 1593 at-bats and can play catcher, first base, left field, and right field. Expect some team far more intelligent than the Cubs or Pirates to make a deal for Wilson this winter.
Damaso Marte Dealt For Rob Mackowiak
Two emailers just told me that Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the White Sox have dealt lefty reliever Damaso Marte for super-utility man Rob Mackowiak.
For his career, the 30 year-old Marte is 14-14 with a 3.21 ERA in 303 innings. He’s been tough to hit and strikes out many, but walks have always been a problem. In 2005, Marte walked a ridiculous 6.55 batters per nine innings. This will be a return to Pittsburgh for the southpaw. He was dealt for Matt Guerrier back in 2002.
Mackowiak, a native of Oak Lawn, IL, can handle most of the infield positions and anywhere in the outfield. His career numbers are .258/.328/.414. He’s a useful part if kept in a utility role.
Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close
Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred. Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.
Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton. I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield. Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ‘pen. The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005. One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.
The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal. Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief. MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9. As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea. But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run.
The Reds unloaded Sean Casey‘s salary on the Pirates. Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk. Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great. The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first.
What’s Jason Michaels Worth?
Jason Michaels just can’t get a break. He was kicked around the minors long enough to lose the "prospect" label, and then he was branded a part-time player despite out-hitting many regular center fielders. I touted Michaels in my recent Center Fielders With Potential article, noting his .380 OBP in 808 Major League at-bats.
After Kenny Lofton‘s contract expired, Michaels finally figured to be pressed into full-time duty. Of course, the Phillies decided to import Aaron Rowand instead. Not a bad trade for the Phils, but now they have a clear surplus of center fielders. It remains to be seen what kind of bounty Michaels will bring.
Odds are that Pat Gillick waits until most of the other CFs are off the market to make his deal for Michaels. The Yankees are Pirates are already poking around. The Cubs could get in on the act if Milton Bradley, Juan Pierre, and Brad Wilkerson fall through the cracks.
The Phillies have asked for Chien-Ming Wang from the Yanks, a very even trade as far as I can tell. They were rebuffed, and then chuckled when the Pirates offered Mark Redman. Some pitchers I’d consider comparable to Michaels are Jorge Sosa and Bruce Chen. While Chen is certainly available, the Phillies don’t want him back for a second tour of duty.