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Counsell: Freddy Peralta To Miss “Significant” Time

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An MRI of Freddy Peralta’s sore right shoulder revealed a posterior shoulder strain, and the right-hander is expected to miss “significant” time, Brewers manager Craig Counsell announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). The Brewers expect that Peralta will be able to return this season, but a specific timetable isn’t yet clear. Surgery isn’t expected  to be necessary, Counsell added. Left-hander Aaron Ashby is expected to step into the Milwaukee rotation in his place, joining Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser.

Deep and talented as Milwaukee’s pitching staff is, there’s little denying that Peralta’s loss is a major one for the Brew Crew. The right-hander hasn’t been himself this year, evidenced by a pedestrian 4.42 ERA and a diminished (albeit still excellent) 30.3% strikeout rate through his first 38 2/3 frames. That’s solid production for a fourth or fifth starter but a far cry from Peralta’s dominant 2021 campaign, when he posted a 2.81 ERA and 33.6% strikeout rate through 144 1/3 frames.

The group of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta looked to be arguably the top rotation trio of any team in the league, but it hasn’t played out that way this year. Burnes has been dominant, following up on his 2021 Cy Young win with a brilliant 2.26 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. But both Peralta and Woodruff have struggled to match last year’s outstanding results. Rather, it’s been Lauer who has stepped things up considerably, while through his first seven turns, the underrated Houser somewhat remarkably has perfectly replicated last year’s 3.22 ERA.

Ashby will now step into that mix and hope to solidify his place in the Milwaukee rotation for the foreseeable future. A former fourth-round pick, Ashby has generally been considered the Brewers’ top pitching prospect for the past few seasons and, so far in 2022, has looked the part. He’s split his time between the rotation and the bullpen, notching a 3.49 ERA with a strong 27.6% strikeout rate and a mammoth 64.8% grounder rate. Ashby’s command has been spotty, as advertised (13.8% walk rate), but he’s minimizing hard contact and getting tons of chases off the plate (35.5%). He’s yet to pitch more than four innings in an outing this season, though, so it’ll be telling just how Ashby fares when working deeper into games and perhaps turning a lineup over for a third time.

Brewers’ Enviable Rotation Depth Could Open Trade Possibilities For Front Office

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The Brewers’ star rotation trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta has drawn plenty of well-deserved attention. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award for his excellence in 2021. Woodruff and Peralta were well-deserved All-Star selections, with the former also receiving a solid amount of Cy Young support.

Essentially no one else around the league can match that kind of firepower at the top of the rotation. But Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta weren’t the only Milwaukee starters to have strong showings in 2021. Fourth and fifth starters Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer may not have been as electric as their rotation mates, but they’re both overqualified for back-end roles.

Houser pitched to a 3.22 ERA over a career-high 142 1/3 innings last season. The righty’s 17.5% strikeout rate wasn’t impressive, but Houser’s a ground-ball machine who’s had a decent amount of success despite mediocre whiff rates throughout his career. He owns a solid 3.78 ERA since the start of 2019, showing a knack for suppressing opponents’ exit velocities and keeping the ball in the yard.

Lauer came over from the Padres as part of the Trent Grisham – Luis Urías swap over the 2019-20 offseason. He barely pitched in the majors during his first season in Milwaukee, but the southpaw held down a rotation spot for most of last year. Across 118 2/3 frames, Lauer posted a 3.19 ERA that was far and away the best mark of his career. His strikeout and walk rates — 23.9% and 8.4%, respectively — were right around the respective league averages.

Unlike Houser, Lauer doesn’t excel at keeping the ball on the ground. A 4.24 SIERA suggests he’s probably closer to a league average rotation arm than his ERA — which befits a #2/3 type starter — might suggest. Even still, league average production would be a notable upgrade for many clubs’ starting staffs around the league. There are quite a few hopeful contenders expected to look for back-of-the-rotation help coming out of the lockout, and there’s not much reliability with the remaining free agent starters. Teams like the Reds and A’s might make notable starters available, but clubs looking for back-end help could also view the Brewers as a plausible trade partner.

Milwaukee’s squarely in win-now mode, and there’s a case to be made for them to hold onto their rotation depth. Each of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Lauer made 20+ starts last year, and the injury risk associated with any pitcher could make banking on a repeat of that kind of rotation durability risky. On the other hand, Milwaukee also has another promising young arm who could step into a permanent rotation role.

Aaron Ashby has been one of the top prospects in the Brewers system for the past few seasons. Public prospect evaluators have raised some questions about his spotty control, but Ashby has the kind of stuff to succeed against MLB hitters already. He debuted last season and flashed special ability. His 4.55 ERA over 31 2/3 innings isn’t eye-catching, but Ashby struck out 29.3% of opponents and racked up ground-balls at a massive 61.3% clip that even slightly exceeded Houser’s mark. Only White Sox setup man Aaron Bummer matched Ashby’s combination of strikeouts and grounders.

That alone doesn’t guarantee Ashby will be an impact starter. There’d be risk in moving one of Houser or Lauer to entrust him with a full-time rotation spot. But the Brewers at least have to be encouraged by the promise Ashby showed, and a Houser or Lauer trade could enable the front office to creatively address the offense. Milwaukee’s lineup was a touch below-average last season, and they’ve since lost Avisaíl García to free agency. The Brewers acquired Hunter Renfroe to replace García in right field, but the overall lineup could stand to pick up another bat, particularly if the new collective bargaining agreement adds the designated hitter to the National League.

Houser and Lauer are each entering their first season of arbitration eligibility. Assuming there aren’t any changes to the service time structure in the next CBA, they’d remain controllable through 2024. Both pitchers are projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for modest salaries between $2MM and $3MM next season. With Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Ashby all controllable for at least three more years themselves, the Brewers could contemplate dealing from their enviable rotation depth to bolster the offense after the transactions freeze.

Dodgers Claim Bobby Wahl Off Waivers

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2:15 PM: The Dodgers have claimed Wahl off waivers, per Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter). To make room on the 40-man roster, they moved Corey Seager to the 60-day injured list. He will not, therefore, return to the team before July 15.

11:08 AM: As expected, the Brewers have selected the contract of Aaron Ashby to make his Major League debut in today’s game against the Cubs. Pablo Reyes was optioned to Triple-A to make room on the active roster, and Bobby Wahl was designated for assignment, the team announced. The latter move was necessary to add Ashby to the 40-man roster.

Wahl, 29, will be exposed to waiver claim by any of the game’s other 29 teams. He made three appearances for the Brewers last season, but Wall has yet to appear in a game at the big-league level this season. He’s appeared in 13 games at Triple-A, however, struggling to a 9.58 ERA over that span. He has, at least, flashed some strikeout ability, striking out 18 over 10 1/3 innings. The Brewers acquired from the Mets in 2019 as part of the Keon Broxton trade.

As for Reyes, the 27-year-old infielder/outfielder has slashed .224/.240/.265 line in 50 plate appearances. The former Pirate has fared much better in 49 trips in Triple-A, with a triple slash line of .350/.449/.600. The Brewers will be down to a four-man bench for today, so Reyes could return shortly.

Brewers To Select Aaron Ashby

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The Brewers are planning to call up left-handed pitching prospect Aaron Ashby, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The 23-year-old is expected to work out of the bullpen initially, Passan notes. He isn’t on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move is forthcoming.

Ashby is one of the game’s more exciting pitching prospects. Milwaukee selected him in the fourth round in 2018 out of Crowder Junior College, and his prospect status has steadily improved throughout his time in pro ball. Ashby had a strong couple months at Low-A during his draft year, and that continued the following season. Between Low-A and High-A in 2019, he worked to a 3.50 ERA with a strong 25.5% strikeout rate and an elevated 11.3% walk percentage.

Clearly, Ashby’s control can be an issue at times, but his low minors performance has impressed evaluators. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Ashby among Milwaukee’s top ten prospects entering the season. BA suggested he’d likely settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter, while Law noted Ashby had mid-rotation raw stuff but needed to develop better control to reach that ceiling. Longenhagen was arguably the most bullish, placing Ashby at #127 in his top overall prospects list, praising his mid-90s fastball and pair of quality breaking pitches and calling the southpaw a potential impact multi-inning reliever.

It’s been more of the same for Ashby in 2021, which he’s spent at Triple-A Nashville. Through 38 innings, he’s managed a 4.50 ERA with a stellar 33.3% strikeout rate but a very high 14.3% walk rate. Milwaukee is clearly comfortable enough with his bat-missing prowess to tolerate some potential control issues, as he’ll be thrust into a tight division race. The Brewers lead the Cubs by four games in the National League Central. Milwaukee dealt a pair of relievers (Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen) in the Willy Adames trade last month, likely in anticipation of Ashby contributing at some point this season.

Even if he’s in the majors from here on out, Ashby won’t accrue a full season of MLB service. He’ll be controllable through 2027, and he’s unlikely to be eligible for arbitration until after 2024. Future optional assignments could obviously change that service time outlook.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/25/20

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Checking in on the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Phillies announced that they’ve outrighted reliever Deolis Guerra. The 31-year-old righty had been in limbo since the Phillies designated him for assignment last Saturday. Guerra threw 7 1/3 innings and allowed nine runs (seven earned) on 10 hits, two walks and eight strikeouts from Philly’s bullpen this season before the club booted him from its roster. In all, Guerra has combined for 103 major league frames with a few teams and put up a 4.81 ERA/4.78 FIP with 7.25 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.

Earlier:

  • The Giants have added first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw to their 60-man player pool, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area relays. Shaw was a 2015 first-round pick (No. 31) who spent the subsequent few seasons as one of the Giants’ top prospects, but the 26-year-old hasn’t made a mark in the big leagues yet. Across 82 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, Shaw has batted .153/.244/.222 with one home run. But Shaw did enjoy a productive 2019 between Double-A and Triple-A, where he combined for a .294/.360/.559 line and 28 homers in 492 trips to the plate.
  • The Marlins have outrighted catcher Ryan Lavarnway to their alternate site, per a team announcement. Lavarnway got off to a 4-for-11 start at the plate this year, but the Marlins designated him for assignment last week to make room for the return of starting backstop Jorge Alfaro from the injured list. The 33-year-old Lavarnway has now seen regular-season action with seven teams since his career began in 2011.
  • The Brewers announced that left-hander Aaron Ashby is now part of their player pool. Ashby, a 2018 fourth-rounder, posted a 3.50 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 126 innings between Single-A and High-A last season. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranks Ashby as the fifth-best prospect in Milwaukee’s system, writing that the 22-year-old has “nasty” stuff that could work out of the team’s rotation or bullpen down the line.
  • The Rays have outrighted southpaw Sean Gilmartin, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. This is the second time this year the Rays have outrighted Gilmartin, who will head back to their alternate site. He has thrown 4 1/3 innings of four-earned run ball this season with seven hits and four walks (five strikeouts).

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