Gammons On Ackley, Red Sox, Relievers
ESPN's Peter Gammons has a new blog post up. Let's take a look.
- Gammons writes in praise of North Carolina's Dustin Ackley, who is likely to be chosen by the Mariners at #2 in June. Ackley may wind up at center field or second base.
- The Red Sox don't appear willing to trade young pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Nick Hagadone. The Sox have looked at bats such as Colorado's Matt Murton and Ryan Spilborghs, but for now aren't desperate enough to trade pitching. Gammons wonders if, for the right bat, Boston would part with Manny Delcarmen. He believes Delcarmen could close in the NL.
- Gammons says the Mets think they could have Carlos Delgado back by August if he has hip surgery, allowing them to stay in-house for his replacements.
- The Dodgers, Indians, Yankees, and Twins are looking for relief help. Gammon names Jose Valverde, Huston Street, Danys Baez, Russ Springer, and John Grabow as future trade candidates.
Stark’s Latest: Willis, Peavy, Astros, O’s
A summary of Jayson Stark's latest "Rumblings and Grumblings" column…
- Why did the Tigers bother giving Dontrelle Willis another shot? Frustration, perhaps. "It was pretty obvious, wasn't it?" said one longtime front-office man. "They invested $29 million in the guy. They had $22 million left… They'd already eaten Gary Sheffield's money."
- As for a possible Jake Peavy-to-the-Cubs deal, Stark writes "The Cubs' ownership limbo now looks as if it might stretch until Christmas Eve. So who knows whether Cubs GM Jim Hendry will even be released from captivity in time to pursue another Peavy deal come July."
- The chances of Roy Oswalt, along with a few other of Houston's high profile stars being placed on the trade market this summer? "Based on the history?" an executive of one club said, laughing. "I'd say zero."
- The Orioles should have relievers available come July. Scouts are drooling over Danys Baez, who seems to have regained his form this year with a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Closer George Sherrill could also draw plenty of interest.
Rosenthal On Royals, Atkins, Baez, Huff
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has trade speculation in the sidebar of his latest column.
- Rosenthal sees shortstop Mike Aviles as the Royals' weakest link, given his .523 OPS in 97 plate appearances. Most projection systems had Aviles in the .720-.750 range. Rosenthal runs through potential trade targets such as Orlando Cabrera, Jack Wilson, Miguel Tejada, and Marco Scutaro. The first three have their flaws, and Scutaro doesn't figure to be available.
- Rosenthal suggests the Rockies could accomplish their goal of more playing time for Ian Stewart by trading Garrett Atkins. However, Atkins is fairly pricey and is off to a .224/.287/.367 start through 108 plate appearances.
- Orioles reliever Danys Baez is generating trade buzz with his 2.30 ERA through 15.6 innings. Baez is still owed $4.55MM of his $5.5MM '09 salary, and he also gets a $500K bonus if traded. So just moving the contract might be a feat for Andy MacPhail, in my opinion.
- Aubrey Huff, with $6.62MM left on his contract, could eventually draw interest from teams like the Royals and Mariners, in Rosenthal's opinion. Huff seems back to his pre-2008 level; he's hitting .270/.331/.423 in 124 plate appearances.
Odds & Ends: Perez, D’Backs, Baez
Links for Monday…
- RotoAuthority looks more closely at the Pirates' MLB-best rotation.
- Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says the Marlins won't be pursuing Luis Vizcaino.
- On Saturday, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan wrote that the Rangers don't expect to be in on Pedro Martinez, but could have interest in Vizcaino for a Triple A job.
- Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has a quick American League Elias rankings preview.
- Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post thinks Oliver Perez may be headed to the bullpen or even Triple A if he'll consent. Perez has pitched poorly in three of his four starts. He's had streaks like this before, though.
- With Brandon Webb out for at least six weeks, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wonders if the Diamondbacks will be sellers this summer.
- Could Danys Baez have midseason trade value? Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun thinks it's possible, despite the pitcher's $5.5MM salary.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back at last summer's Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte deal with the Pirates.
- Murray Chass thinks Ned Colletti deserves a contract extension. Do you agree?
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. wonders who will be the first American-born player to exploit a draft loophole by dropping out of high school and living in another country for a year to become a free agent.
Orioles Rumors: Baez, Greene, Hernandez
Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun has a few Orioles notes today.
- Danys Baez, who hasn’t pitched since 2006, would like to prepare as a starter for 2008. Andy MacPhail is open to the idea; the Orioles have more open spots in their rotation than their bullpen. Baez is set to earn $5.5MM in ’09, the last year of his deal. Starting is where the money’s at, unless you get a chance to close.
- The Orioles are interested in Khalil Greene, but prefer a long-term solution at shortstop.
- Nothing new on the extension front for Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. MacPhail is probably eyeing the Jake Peavy negotiations closely, as the Cubs be out of the running for Roberts if they acquire Peavy.
- Zrebiec speculated recently that the Orioles will sign Cesar Izturis to play short and will eat the $9MM owed to Ramon Hernandez to move him.
Wolf, Baez to new homes
Looks like Randy Wolf is about to become a Dodger. Apparently LA is set to sign him to a one-year deal with an option for 2008; I’d guess it’s in the $6-7M range. The same article speculates that Greg Maddux is looking for a raise on his $9M salary from last year–a two-year deal for Mike Mussina money. I guess I didn’t realize quite what a stud he was after the trade last year, but I don’t know who’s going to give him that kind of cash. I’ve been a Maddux fan since the first time he was with the Cubs, but if you had the choice between Maddux at $22.5M/2 and Ted Lilly at $27M/3, isn’t that a no-brainer? Then again, we don’t know that Lilly won’t get more than that.
Also, Danys Baez looks to be headed to Baltimore. The Orioles seem to think that, whatever their problems were last year, they can be solved with a very expensive bullpen. It’s a three-year deal, according to the Baltimore Sun, and I suppose it could open up the possibility that Chris Ray could be traded for something that the Orioles really need. Like, oh, I don’t know, an 1B/OF/DH type who can hit above replacement level? (Otherwise known as "the Fahey line.")
By Jeff Sackmann
Braves Swap Betemit For Baez, Aybar
I step out for a twenty minute jog, and another deal goes down. Ned Colletti and the Dodgers made a nice move by snagging Wilson Betemit from the Braves for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez.
The Braves add another free-agent-to-be reliever with closer credentials in Baez. While the 28 year-old has been more hittable than ever this season, he’s compensated by posting career-low walk and home run run rates. The hits may stem from a strikeout rate that’s become dangerously low at just 5.26 per nine innings. While Baez is a decent reliever overall, he’s not the shutdown guy the Braves needed to differentiate their bullpen.
In Betemit, the Dodgers get an acceptable stopgap at third base for the rest of the season. More importantly, though, they’ve acquired a young, cheap second base candidate who could put up an .800 OPS in regular duty for several years.
Willy Aybar profiles as a poor man’s Betemit and profiles as more of a utility infielder. There’s a good chance Willy can commiserate with his brother Erick soon enough. Erick is the Angels’ primary trade bait.
Seems like John Schuerholz and Wayne Krivsky are a step behind the other GMs lately, trading away solid, affordable regulars for very questionable bullpen help.
Breaking News: Baez To Dodgers
This just in: the Devil Rays have traded righthanded relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter plus a player to be named later to the Dodgers for starting pitching prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany.
Ken Rosenthal had a whiff of the deal earlier this afternoon, and it’s a variation on the trade rumor we reported back on Tuesday. Jackson and Tiffany had fallen out of the Dodgers’ top ten prospect list. Before the 2005 season, Jackson ranked 3rd and southpaw Tiffany 10th.
Edwin Jackson brings a mid 90s heater and dangerous slider to the table. Despite throwing 55 innings of 8.62 ball in Triple A in 2005, Jackson is likely to see some starts for the Devil Rays at the Major League level in 2006. Baseball America ranked him the Dodgers’ #1 prospect in 2004 after a sparkling Double A season at the tender age of 19. Jackson has been inconsistent since then and has yet to succeed above Double A.
Chuck Tiffany throws a high 80s fastball, big curve ball, and circle changeup. He pitched 110 innings of 3.93 ball in high A ball in ’05, striking out almost 11 hitters per nine innings.
You can view my breakdown of Danys Baez here. He’s a solid insurance policy for Eric Gagne, although both pitchers hit free agency after 2006. Lance Carter’s claim to fame is making an All-Star team by default in 2003 after saving 15 games with a 4.05 ERA for the Devil Rays in the first half. He has good control and doesn’t strike people out. Dodger Stadium won’t hide his home run tendencies.
Baez To Dodgers?
Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News reported a new Danys Baez rumor today. Apparently, the Dodgers have inquired on him given Eric Gagne‘s impending free agency. Of course, Baez is due for a big contract himself when he hits free agency after 2006.
These talks are still preliminary, but I was able to uncover some more info from a source close to the Devil Rays. Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall. The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away.
As mentioned on this site a week ago, the Baez for Aaron Heilman rumor wasn’t equal value for the Mets. This possibility seems more reasonable to me.
Not Buying Baez
There’s about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets. In every one, the price is steep – it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman. I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype. Let’s take a look.
Vital Stats
Danys Baez is still young; he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2006. The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater. The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he’ll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.
2005 Season
I’m guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA. I don’t think he did. He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA. Plug Baez’s 2005 numbers into Bill James’s component ERA formula, and he probably should’ve had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.
Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker. Those two guys don’t throw hard, however, so they’re not high on anyone’s offseason shopping list.
The Save Factor
Even now, in 2006, relievers’ saves totals are being overvalued. Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it’s inflating his value tremendously. It’s tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from ’05, 41 of them to be exact. Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever?
Of course not. Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games. Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003. To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he’ll rack up saves and his value will be inflated. Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.
Back to Baez
Baez is tough to hit. He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board. He walks a lot of guys. His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006. He’ll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond. He’s just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.