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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bruce, Longoria

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Yesterday Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the fates of Baseball America’s top two prospects, Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. While Bruce start the season in the minors, Neyer notes that the Reds could be a playoff contender if Bruce and Joey Votto receive 1,000 plate appearances. On the other hand, a decision has yet be made on where Longoria will start the season. Neyer feels that the Rays may wish that Longoria was not playing so well in Spring Training. He thinks the Rays should forgo the potential savings of keeping him in the minors and buy some goodwill with the fans by showing them that the team is serious about winning.

Keeping top prospects in the minors to begin the season is likely to become a growing trend. Decisions in both of the above cases may at least in part be based on future arbitration and free agency eligibility. A team can delay free agency by just postponing a player’s debut a few weeks. And as arbitration figures continue to rise, team’s can delay the start of the arbitration clock by waiting until June to promote a prospect. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24th to promote him to the majors. In doing so, Braun will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2010 season.

Let’s take a look at what is being written about Bruce and Longoria in the Blogosphere…

  • Redleg Nation understands starting Bruce in AAA, but laments the idea of having Corey Patterson batting leadoff. They worry that this confirms the belief that Dusty Baker prefers veterans even if they are less talented.
  • Red Reporter is split on the issue of Bruce noting that the issue is not as clear as we would like it to be. They also wonder if the Reds are staggering the debuts of their prospects so their arbitration and free agency clocks are also staggered.
  • Bugs & Cranks wonders if the Reds had already decided Bruce’s fate even before bringing Patterson on board, for the sole purpose of delaying Bruce’s arbitration clock.
  • At Fanhouse, Pat Lackey tries to justify the demotion of Bruce, noting that he may be better off developing under the tutelage of somebody other than Baker, getting more experience and delaying his arbitration clock.
  • On the other hand, Eamonn Brennan of Fanhouse thinks any team not managed by Baker would have kept Bruce on the roster.
  • Rays of Light notes that Longoria’s future teammates may not be happy if he is demoted. Rays of Light wouldn’t be happy with a demotion but they understand the reasoning.
  • Outs Per Swing notes that if Longoria is demoted, Willy Aybar will start at third. They do not believe that Aybar’s recent hamstring issues will have an effect on the team’s decision regarding Longoria.
  • Sports Indeed notes that Longoria is receiving a lot of playing time in the spring and wonders if this is an indication that he will be on the opening day roster.
  • Rays Index predicts a May 26 debut for Longoria based on his arbitration clock.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: 2008 Debuts For Top Prospects

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Baseball America recently unveiled their lists of the Top 10 prospects in each organization. Many of these top prospects will make their major league debut in 2008 and a number of moves made this off-season have a direct impact on exactly when that will happen. With one week to go before pitchers and catchers report, and still no official announcement of an Erik Bedard trade, let’s take a look at these speculations from the blogosphere.

  • Red Reporter would not be surprised to see Jay Bruce start the year in Triple A, as they feel his strikeout totals suggest he may struggle early on the big leagues. However, the recent trade of Josh Hamilton to the Rangers suggest the Reds are at least entertaining the idea of starting Bruce in the big leagues despite beginning 2007 in Single-A.
  • Sox & Dawgs projects that the last spot in the rotation will come down to Jon Lester or top prospect Clay Buchholz. The recent news of a shoulder injury for Curt Schilling makes it more likely for Buchholz to be on the opening day roster.
  • Rays of Light believes that Evan Longoria is the top candidate for Rookie of the Year in the AL, if he starts the year on the Major League roster. It is believed that the Rays will make a decision prior to Spring Training, as it should not be impacted by the recent legal troubles of Willy Aybar or the signing of Eric Hinske.
  • Dodger Thoughts feel that Clayton Kershaw will be in the Dodgers rotation by midseason. It is unclear if this decision will be impacted by a potential acquisition of Joe Blanton from the A’s.
  • Redbird Ramblings does not see Colby Rasmus making the Cardinals roster out of Spring Training without any experience in Triple A. However, they project that Rasmus will be manning center field for St. Louis and leading off at some point this season. The off-season trade of Jim Edmonds opened a spot for Rasmus.

by Cork Gaines

Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

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You’ve probably heard of Jonathan Mayo.  He’s a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently.  Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man."  Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.

In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I’ll get 46 cents.  Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!

Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.

MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up?  What players would you compare Bruce to?  How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?

Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.

Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF.

Erik Bedard Rumors

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Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider dug up "a few fresh nuggets" regarding the Erik Bedard trade discussions.

  • The Mariners reportedly offered Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill for Bedard.  Seems the Orioles want Brandon Morrow or Carlos Triunfel instead of Clement.  One source of Churchill’s believes the Mariners would be more inclined to buckle and surrender Morrow than Triunfel.  It’s even possible that the Orioles gave the Mariners a "final counteroffer" including one of the two and will move on if it’s rejected.
  • Many Mariners fans believe Bedard is not even worth Jones straight up, so imagine how they’ll feel if the Orioles extract significantly more.
  • The Orioles still want Jay Bruce from Cincinnati; otherwise they would ask for a ridiculous package of pretty much everyone else worth discussing in the Reds’ farm system.

Erik Bedard Rumors: Mariners, Reds, Indians

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Erik Bedard staying put in Baltimore this winter?  Maybe not.  Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill both busted out brand new material this evening with the latest Bedard chatter.  The upshot is that the Mariners seem to have a decent shot at him.

  • Rosenthal says the Mariners will put Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Matt Tuiasosopo in the deal.  He indicates that the Orioles could push to substitute and get one of Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, and Carlos Triunfel.  Looks like Bill Bavasi is sticking to the idea of keeping Brandon Morrow.  Rosenthal hedges his bets, but admits to "growing indications that the teams could be moving closer to a deal."
  • Churchill says something similar: the Mariners and Orioles "may very well be making significant progress."  Churchill sees a package of Jones, Triunfel, and George Sherrill as the likely scenario. 
  • Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein recently listed his Top 11 Prospects for the Mariners.  Clement was a five-star, Tillman and Triunfel four-stars, Butler a two-star, and Tuiasosopo an honorable mention.  Jones would be first were he still considered a prospect.
  • Both Ohio teams have interest in Bedard as well, but a trade to the Indians or Reds seems less likely.  The Reds still won’t give up Jay Bruce.

Orioles To Hold On To Bedard?

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UPDATE, 12-22-07 at 4:52pm: John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer says the Orioles have backed off on their demand for Jay Bruce from the Reds in a Bedard deal.  He says they still require three top prospects, who would probably be Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto.  That would wipe out the farm system, as that trio ranks #2-4 in the organization according to Baseball America.  Would it be better to substitute Edwin Encarnacion for Cueto?

FROM 12-22-07 at 12:35pm:

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun recently snagged some quotes from Andy MacPhail, the Orioles’ president of baseball operations.  MacPhail said there’s a "strong likelihood" that Erik Bedard is the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2008.  He also said not to expect any Orioles deals before the new year.

MacPhail made the assertion because he hasn’t been impressed with any of the offers for Bedard.  The Reds would have to crack and give up Jay Bruce.  The Mariners would probably have to give up both Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow, and they seem unwilling to trade Morrow.  The Dodgers seem out of the mix given the Hiroki Kuroda signing.  It sounds like it would take a dark horse to sweep in and make a monstrous offer.  The Indians could fit the bill, in my estimation.

Reds Still Searching For A Starter

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John Fay writes of the Reds’ continued search for a starting pitcher.  That’s Wayne Krivsky’s focus; his main limitation is that Jay Bruce is untouchable.

The Reds couldn’t get Dan Haren because they wouldn’t give up young starter Johnny Cueto.  The focus remains on Erik Bedard; the Reds seem willing to offer Homer Bailey as a starting point.  Fay indicates that the Dodgers lead for Bedard, which is odd given their current six-deep rotation.

I have a feeling the hot stove is going to turn to Joe Blanton now.  The Reds may be in the thick of it, especially if they’d give up Bailey for him.  What do you think, would that be a wise move?

The Giants and Hideki Matsui

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As we learned earlier this week, the Giants and Yankees have talked about a Hideki Matsui trade.  Let’s discuss.

  • According to Andrew Baggarly, talks are still in the early stages but the teams will meet again soon on the topic.  A source close to Matsui indicated that he’d waive his no-trade for San Fran.  However, the Giants are said to prefer adding a right-handed slugger.  Baggarly thinks the Giants would readily part with Jonathan Sanchez and Brad Hennessey, with Noah Lowry a possibility.  The Giants won’t part with Brian Wilson, their closer of the future.
  • Other notes from Baggarly – the Giants are over Miguel Tejada and were told Jay Bruce is untouchable.
  • Pete Caldera says the Yankees like Lowry but considers a deal a long shot.
  • Ed Price reports that Matsui’s agent hasn’t had a request about waiving the no-trade, and the agent won’t comment on Matsui’s willingness.
  • Don’t expect the Giants to acquire both Alex Rios and Matsui.  Tim Lincecum would stay if Lowry goes.  At this same link Mark Feinsand notes that subtracting Matsui’s contract might create more flexibility to acquire Johan Santana.

Latest Erik Bedard Rumors: Tuesday

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UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 11:36pm: Geoff Baker says that a Bedard trade with the Mariners would likely involve Wladimir Balentien, Adam Jones, and Brandon Morrow.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 11:06pm: The Dodgers met with the Orioles to talk Bedard today.  Ned Colletti has pretty much deemed Broxton untouchable, and no deal is close.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:19pm: John Fay says the Reds are seriously pursuing Bedard.  Wayne Krivsky won’t reveal much, but Fay thinks Bailey, Votto, and another prospect might interest the Orioles.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:16pm: The Mets again offered Heilman, Gomez, and Humber for Bedard, perhaps thinking that offering it twice would be helpful.  MLB.com’s Marty Noble says the Mets may reconfigure their offer, replacing Humber with Pelfrey or Mulvey.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 4:10pm: Joel Sherman confirms the Cubs’ interest, so that’s officially 11 teams in on Bedard.  Sherman says the Yankees and Mets are unlikely to snag the southpaw ace, and names the Dodgers as the frontrunner.  Peter Angelos is letting Andy MacPhail run the show but doesn’t want Bedard traded within the division.  Sorry Yankees and Blue Jays.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 3:10pm: Nick Cafardo notes that Cubs GM Jim Hendry and Andy MacPhail had lunch today, which leads him to believe they may have discussed Bedard.  A bit of a stretch since Hendry and MacPhail used to work together.  Then again the Cubs did pursue in a Mark Prior/Miguel Tejada deal a few years back.  The Cubs would represent the 11th team in on Bedard.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 3:01pm: Buster Olney says the Jays continue to talk with the Orioles about Bedard, noting that the Jays have the young pitching.  Bedard would certainly represent the Canadian draw they’ve been looking for.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 2:16pm: There is growing buzz that the Dodgers may get Bedard.  ESPN’s Amy Nelson has a source saying a deal may be close.  Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton would be the main pieces of a trade.  Readers are reporting in that WFAN is saying the same.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 9:32am: The Mets are still hawking Gomez, trying to get Bedard.  Joel Sherman adds the Tigers to the list of teams after Bedard, bringing the total to ten.  He says the Tigers and Phils are getting creative trying to get Bedard.  The Tigers don’t need to get that creative – they can offer Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

FROM 12-4-07 at 8:45am:

How many teams are after Erik Bedard?  The tally yesterday included the Phillies, Cardinals, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Angels, Dodgers, and D’Backs – that’s eight.  The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly check in with the latest on the Orioles’ ace.

  • There’s been a ton of trade interest in Bedard (as you might expect).  Andy MacPhail is still talking about signing him to an extension, but no one really buys it.  The package he’ll get in trade should rival what the Twins get for Johan.
  • The Dodgers, Mariners, and Mets have been pursuing Bedard the most aggressively.  More meetings with the Mets should occur today.  The Mariners could make an intriguing offer built around Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow.
  • A new team is added to bring the tally to nine: the Reds are interested.  However, Jay Bruce is off the table.

Odds and Ends: Cliff Lee, Edwin Jackson

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You know the drill…

  • Nick Piecoro checks in on his blog.  Apparently the D’Backs discussed swapping Carlos Quentin for Cliff Lee before sending him to Chicago.  As much as he might’ve liked to it seems like Josh Byrnes couldn’t get a starter for Quentin.
  • Geoff Baker links the Mariners to Lee,  Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, and Edwin Jackson based on yesterday’s buzz.  The Sheets one has since been questioned, since the Dodgers were identified as the West Coast team that inquired.  Prior could be part of a Raul Ibanez trade, but the Cubs are first focusing on Fukudome.  As for Jackson, the Rays would want more than just Ben Broussard.
  • John Fay believes the Reds will have to part with Jay Bruce or Homer Bailey to get a frontline starter.

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