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John Danks

Danks Brothers Leave Boras

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According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, John and Jordan Danks have left the Scott Boras Corporation in favor of Jeff Berry.  Gonzales notes that Berry represents Mark Buehrle and Josh Fields as well.

This development may make a long-term deal for John Danks more likely.  The 23 year-old southpaw is in the midst of a breakout year with a 3.13 ERA through 74.6 innings.  Historically, the White Sox haven’t been huge fans of Boras. 

Danks will be eligible for arbitration in 2010.  The going rate for a good young pitcher’s three arb years is around $14MM, sometimes with a club option on the third.  Several years ago the Sox signed Buehrle to a three-year deal covering his arb years plus an option on his first of free agency.

Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More

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Time for this week’s mailbag.  You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.

Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan

Funny you ask this.  I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it."  So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.

Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel

I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine.  I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative?  I don’t like the Livan idea.  I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent.  Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off.  There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.

Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant

The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board.  If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.

What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew

I’ll put it at a 10% chance.  This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras.  He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.

When, just when will this Santana situation be over?!  It’s just killing me! – Dan

We all feel your pain Dan.  Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this.  I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now.  Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.

Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin

C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you.  If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships.  Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy.  So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.

Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver

The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official.  However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post.  The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it.  It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer.  Those reporters altered history.

What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus?  Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler

We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May.  There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training.  I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.

Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew

Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season.  The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense.  If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.

Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve

Thankfully I did.  I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites.  Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.

What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks

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At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been.  Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.

Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005.  That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.

Let’s start with the Fish.  They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston.  Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07.  Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal.  Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards.  Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field.  Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.

Moving on to the Rangers.  Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise).  Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs.  Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira.  In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06.  Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels.  Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club.  And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell?  Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs? 

Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake.  The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job.  Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins.  That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell.  The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.   

The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo.  The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life.  Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman.  Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett?  Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.

By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy.  Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.

I’m dizzy.  Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation?  Any juicy consequences I missed?

Tigers Getting Cabrera, White Sox After Andruw?

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UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 5:22pm: Joe Frisaro at MLB.com says Cabrera and Willis are on the verge of becoming Tigers.  And to think some people called the Winter Meetings boring.  The Marlins got some absolute studs here, though it’s surprising they couldn’t get more dealing the two separately.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 5:15pm: Ozzie Guillen confirms Chicago’s interest in Andruw, despite his agent.

UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 5:04pm: This is out of control!  Now Jim Molony is saying the Tigers are nearing a blockbuster eight-player deal to get Cabrera and Willis for Maybin, Miller, and four others.  In the same breath Molony adds that the White Sox are after Andruw Jones.

FROM 12-4-07 at 5:01pm:

This is unexpected.  Joe Capozzi says the White Sox "are making a strong push" to acquire Miguel Cabrera.  What’s more, some kind of major announcement is coming soon and White Sox sources admitted it involves Cabrera.

Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd could all be involved.  This would be an incredible move if Kenny Williams can pull it off.  I never though those guys could net Cabrera against all other offers.

Capozzi adds that that the Tigers also made a push for Cabrera this afternoon.

Conor Jackson Showcased For White Sox?

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You may have noticed Conor Jackson oddly playing left field last night.  On the surface, the idea was just to get Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy into the same lineup against Dave Bush.

However, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune reports that the Diamondbacks’ real motivation was to showcase Jackson for the White Sox.  Left field is the only place the Sox could use him.

Rogers writes that while the D’Backs scouted Jose Contreras, they’re after Jon Garland or even John Danks.  Javier Vazquez’s name did not come up, but wouldn’t it be crazy to see the Chris Young trade reversed?  [As the always sharp commenters immediately noted, Vazquez has a no-trade clause allowing him to block trades to all nine AL/NL West teams.  But it would still be cool to see the trade reversed.]  Baseball America had some interesting thoughts on the impending Young/Justin Upton center field logjam today (the On The Brink section).

Rogers also adds that the D’Backs would trade right fielder Carlos Quentin.  Quentin is 10 for 22 since his return to Triple A Tucson.  Keep in mind that he was dealing with a small labrum tear in his left shoulder in the beginning of the season, which probably contributed to his poor play.

Either player would be a nice pickup for the Sox, who desperately need outfielders for 2008.  If you’re a PECOTA fan, here are the projections for ’08 in the AVG/OBP/SLG format:

Jackson: .305/.389/.512
Quentin: .288/.380/.491

Josh Byrnes and Kenny Williams work well together, and match up nicely for another deal this summer.

Rangers Acquire Brandon McCarthy For Danks And Masset

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In a quite unexpected move, the White Sox have traded starter Brandon McCarthy to Texas for top prospects John Danks and Nick Masset.

The Sox were interested in Masset at least a month ago, considering trading Brian Anderson to the Rangers.  Masset, a righthander, will turn 25 in May.  Baseball America ranked him eighth among Ranger prospects.  He had Tommy John surgery as a senior in high school, which could be viewed as a positive (given that his new tendon/ligament doesn't have a lifetime of wear and tear on it).  Masset converted to relief this year and was able to dial his fastball into the high 90s.  He could be yet another hard thrower in Chicago's explosive bullpen in 2007.

Danks, a southpaw, turns 22 in April.  He was the Rangers' best prospect according to BA.  He throws three solid pitches and has pitched well in the minors despite being young for his levels.  He'll compete for the fifth spot in Chicago's rotation.  He's the prize of the deal.

While B-Mac has 150 innings of Major League experience, it'd be tough to argue that he's worth as much as Danks and Masset combined.  The 23 year-old was confined to the bullpen in 2006 because the Sox had no openings in the rotation. With groundball rates around 37%, McCarthy doesn't seem particularly suited for Ameriquest.  He'll still be a valuable commodity if he can find a way to keep the ball in the yard.  You can view my RotoAuthority projection of McCarthy as a Ranger here.

No one thought Kenny Williams would trade McCarthy, but it looks like he got an offer he couldn't refuse.  You have to admire that he has a plan and he's sticking to it.

Assorted updates: Alou, Hudson, Garland, Okajima

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Earlier today, we found a report that Moises Alou was about to sign with the Mets.  Now Rosenthal is saying that it could be a two-year deal.  With Carlos Gomez right behind Lastings Milledge, putting two established vets in the outfield through 2008 would seem to make Milledge expendable. 

Yesterday, Phil Rogers speculated that Mark Buehrle could be headed to Texas.  Rosenthal says it’s Jon Garland, and hints (as Rogers did) that John Danks and Brian Anderson could be part of the package, especially if the deal gets bigger.

And, Buster Olney is reporting chatter about Tim Hudson heading to the Orioles.  If, as Olney speculates, the return could include Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn, it would seem to be ideal for Atlanta: free up payroll for Tom Glavine, and get another (cheap) potentially decent starter in the deal as well.

And here’s something out of nowhere: Hideki Okajima, a lefty reliever, may be coming to the states.  Okajima, a longtime Yomiuri Giant and recently a Nippon Ham Fighter, had a great 2006 but a mediocre ’05.  Sounds like your typical middle-bullpen fodder.

By Jeff Sackmann

Kenny Williams, Dealmaker

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Either Ken Williams is keeping busy at the GM meetings, or the reporters covering the Sox have very fertile imaginations.  I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between.  In addition to the Andruw Jones deal I mentioned in the previous post, here’s a roundup of possible White Sox moves:

Chris De Luca reports on a possible Freddy Garcia / Ervin Santana swap.  Oddly enough, his sources say that the "package" would be built around Santana.  Garcia might be a better pitcher right now, but just barely: last year, Garcia was worth 15 win shares, while Santana was worth 13.  Santana’s younger, and is under the Angels control for four more years.  Bill Stoneman couldn’t covet Garcia that much, could he?  South Side Sox chimes in on the improbability of that deal.

De Luca also repeats the thinking that Williams could bring Aaron Rowand back, especially if the Phillies land Alfonso Soriano.

Phil Rogers has a flurry of rumors, some of the recycled variety.  He keeps stoking the flames of Javier Vazquez-to-the-Mets, and suggests there’s the makings of a "monster deal" between the Sox and Rangers with Vazquez or Mark Buerhle headed to Texas.  Rogers is clearly speculating, but if his source is correct that John Danks is in play, there’s certainly the possibility of something getting done.

By Jeff Sackmann

Beckett Trade Nearly Done

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It’s being reported in the Dallas Morning News that John Danks will be the prospect sent over by Texas and the deal is near completion.

While lefthanded, Danks doesn’t have the same upside as his Double A Frisco teammate Thomas Diamond.  Both starters struggled in 2005.  Danks gave up a ton of hits, while Diamond had major control problems. 

John Danks Career Statistics

Click here to see our 2006 projections for Josh Beckett as a Texas Ranger.

Beckett and Lowell for Blalock

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I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the huge blockbuster that might go down today.  Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post told us late last night:

"In what could be the first step of a major housecleaning in Florida, the Marlins and Rangers are close to completing a trade that would send Beckett and Lowell to Texas for third baseman Hank Blalock and a top pitching prospect, two baseball sources said Friday night.

The Marlins are asking for either left-hander John Danks, Texas’ first-round pick in 2003, or right-hander Thomas Diamond, the team’s first-round pick in 2004."

The article goes on to say that the deal could fall apart if Texas refuses to include either pitching prospect.  My guess is that the Marlins are demanding Diamond, who has a higher ceiling than Danks and could project as a #2 starter.

Both pitchers had lackluster years after being bumped up to Double A.

This may signal a widespread salary dump for the Marlins.  We’ve all heard the rumors around Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Pierre.  One name I haven’t heard much is Luis Castillo.  You have to figure Castillo is on the market as well with a weak 2B free agent class.   

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