By Tim Dierkes | at
Outspoken Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon signed a one-year deal for $775K for ’08. That’s significantly more than the Sox had to give him, so it seems they value his happiness. His new salary beats Mariano Rivera’s two-year service time closer record of $750K.
Papelbon’s salary will increase drastically a year from now, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time. He probably won’t get the $10MM Ryan Howard did, but something north of $5MM seems possible.
By Cork Gaines | at
Last year, in his final year prior to arbitration eligibility, Ryan Howard was renewed for $900K. This was about twice what the Phillies were required to pay Howard, but significantly less than the reigning MVP thought he deserved. Of course, this year that number has been used as a measuring stick by several young stars that have yet to reach arbitration and are subject to automatic renewals from their clubs. It seems that this year, more than years past, players are voicing their displeasure about the automatic renewals. Prince Fielder is displeased at being renewed for $670K, or about 50% more than what the Brewers were required to pay. Jonathan Papelbon has stated that he wants the same $900K that the Phillies gave Howard, and said he would not agree to anything less. Cole Hamels called the $500K that the Phillies gave him a "low blow" compared to the $750K he was asking for. At the other end of the spectrum is B.J. Upton, who was automatically renewed at $10K less than what he made in 2007, despite hitting .300-24-82 with 22 steals last year. Upton made it clear that it was a "non-issue" and it will not impact future negotiations. The stances made by these players has many fans up in arms on both sides of the issue. Lets take a look at what is being written in the blogospere.
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Link time!
By Tim Dierkes | at
Let’s round up some Monday morning links.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Your collection of links and rumors…
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.
Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60. Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year." Now wait, where have we heard that argument before? Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been. Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise! Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right. With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum. And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start. Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now. Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference: the Yankees actually have a closer.
It’s an interesting conundrum. In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief. The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera. There’s an obvious divide in thought here.
I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done. Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc) would be solid for 2008. And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
By Tim Dierkes | at
Locking up young potential star players through their arbitration years has become quite trendy in baseball. Going year-to-year in arbitration with a Joe Mauer type is a thing of the past. A few might slip through the cracks – an unhappy Ryan Howard might not find common ground with the Phillies through his arb years. But it appears that most players are willing to sacrifice $5-10MM to set themselves and their families up for life. Since the deals sometimes steal a year or two of free agency, we can expect even weaker free agent classes in the future despite more money to spend.
Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has a good discussion of this concept up at his blog. He’s got some quotes from GMs that may be telling. Brian Cashman talks about how the Yanks have tried it and haven’t had much success. That makes me wonder whether some covert talks have gone on with Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. J.P. Ricciardi talks about his newfound skepticism of the process, most likely because of Eric Hinske.
Jonathan Papelbon has talked to his agents about long-term possibilities, but there’s been no dialogue with the Red Sox. As Bradford writes, he is in a unique place because you don’t find a ton of star rookie closers. 2005 rookies like Jeff Francoeur, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez, and Ervin Santana could start talks on long-term deals during or after this season.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s not a trade rumor, but it’s somewhat related. According to ESPN’s Erin Andrews, the Red Sox are expected to announce Jonathan Papelbon’s return to the closer role today. Somewhere, Joel Pineiro just shed a tear. Papelbon hopes to become the next Mariano Rivera.
My guess is that the Sox will use a stopgap solution in the fifth starter spot until Jon Lester is ready, perhaps by late April. Personally, I like the decision. Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver summed it up well:
"I understand full well that a great starter is more valuable than a great reliever. But in Papelbon’s case, the risk is too high to justify the reward."
Curt Schilling discusses the transition at his blog. Check out the fantasy ramifications over at RotoAuthority.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Given Jonathan Papelbon’s recent hints about starting in 2007, there’s a lot of hubbub about who might close for the Red Sox next season.
Let me preface this by saying that I agree with Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver: Papelbon should remain a closer. His utter dominance in relief, the taxing nature of his splitter, the open question about his ability to throw 200 innings. Why risk it? As Silver says, "A great closer is as valuable as all but the very best starters, once we properly account for the effects of leverage."
But say the Red Sox do use Papelbon as a starter in 2007 (I’m not anywhere near convinced they will). Who’s going to pitch the ninth inning in Boston? It’s really not their style to pursue any of these guys. Only Eric Gagne has the potential to be elite, so the Boston papers are throwing his name around. But let’s not forget that Gagne has thrown all of 15.3 innings over the last two seasons. He’s a very risky signing, especially if he would require an inflated offer to leave L.A.
The better solution, in my mind, is to try to trade for Brad Lidge. Lidge is still healthy and it would be a buy low situation. It wouldn’t be the first time the Red Sox have looked at acquiring him. Lidge is still racking up the strikeouts, though his control has slipped to a dangerous level. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2008 season.
Whether or not the Red Sox target Lidge, relying on one of the available free agent closers doesn’t seem like their style. They gave Keith Foulke a big contract after 2003, but Foulke was one of the game’s dominant closers at the time. There’s no similar free agent option this year. How about a creative solution: give the job to a starter? Matt Clement, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Kerry Wood, or Randy Wolf could surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot.
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