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Kosuke Fukudome

Padres To Push For Fukudome?

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One National League exec has indicated to a source of mine that the Padres plan to go hard for Kosuke Fukudome.  Apparently, Kevin Towers nearly signed him out of high school as a shortstop.

We’ve heard Fukudome mentioned mainly as a right fielder, but the Friars have Brian Giles signed through 2008.  Perhaps they’d try him in center field for one year, where he’d probably be adequate at best.  Fukudome is currently recovering from endoscopic elbow surgery, but he should be ready for spring.

Previously we’ve seen the White Sox, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees linked to Fukudome at varying levels of speculation.

Kosuke Fukudome Targeted By White Sox, Giants?

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We’ve begun the Kosuke Fukudome Watch early here at MLBTR.  A lot of good info was revealed in our May 2nd interview with Mike Plugh.  A few months later Plugh wrote a more in-depth article about Fukudome at Baseball Prospectus.  Fukudome will be a free agent this winter and doesn’t require a posting fee.  The current estimate is $12-15MM annually over three or four seasons.  He’s currently recovering from elbow surgery but will be ready by spring.

There has been some confusion regarding Fukudome’s position.  While many have referred to him as a center fielder, Plugh told us he’s best in right field.  Plugh said Fukudome could handle center but his defense would be questionable there.  A return to the infield seems highly unlikely.

Fukudome’s position is an important question when it comes to the White Sox.  They’ve got Jermaine Dye locked in at right field, and there’s no where else for him to go.  They also want to try Josh Fields in left to leave room for Joe Crede at third.  Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says Fukudome could be an option for the Sox in center if they don’t sign Torii Hunter.  Additionally, Susan Slusser tosses the Giants into the mix.  Apparently Dave Roberts and Randy Winn wouldn’t be considered obstacles.

A review of previous Fukudome rumors: Will Carroll said back in April that the Red Sox were eyeing him.  It seems the Sox would not have room for Fukudome though.  Rogers speculated in May that the Cubs could get involved.  Dan Graziano confirmed the Red Sox, Cubs, and White Sox while adding the Yankees to the list of suitors.

Fukudome To Have Elbow Surgery

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According to JapanBall.com, Chunichi Dragons outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will have endoscopic surgery to remove bone fragments from his right elbow this week.  The surgery will take place in Los Angeles, perhaps by Dr. Lewis Yocum.

It’s a two-month recovery period, and originally there was a concern that the injury would prevent Fukudome accruing the service time needed to reach free agency after the season.  However, a new rule will still allow free agency.

In talking to Mike Plugh in May, I learned that Fukudome is a fine right fielder with gap power.  Plugh suggested Fukudome might command $12-15MM over three or four years.  Fukudome’s main competition among free agent right fielders will probably be Jermaine Dye.  Whether Bobby Abreu will hit the market this winter is still an open question. 

Graziano’s Latest: Andruw, Dunn, Fukudome

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Dan Graziano has a new article up regarding the free agent outfielder crop.  He spoke to two anonymous GMs.  Let’s take a look at some highlights.

  • Andruw Jones has an awful .216/.312/.418 line this year.  He’s been outdone by Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, Jose Vidro, and Shannon Stewart in terms of OPS.  Nonetheless, Jones isn’t expected to come at a discount.  Scott Boras will just play up the defense, the RBIs, the career totals, whatever. 
  • Graziano says "it’s hard to see" the Reds picking up Adam Dunn’s $13MM option.  This would just be plain dumb on Wayne Krivsky’s part.  Given the $0.5MM buyout, it’s basically like signing Dunn to a one-year, $12.5MM deal.  How many teams would pass on a huge power bat on a no-risk one-year commitment?  If the Reds don’t exercise the option, it will be change for change’s sake.  And a bad decision.
  • Kosuke Fukudome is the dark horse, a possible impact right fielder from Japan.  He will not require a posting fee.  Graziano says the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and White Sox are among the teams scouting him.  More on Fukudome in a separate post.

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.

Cubs Trade Speculation

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What are those crazy Cubs up to now?  They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff.  Here’s the rundown:

  • Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer.  Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts.  Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter.  He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad.  Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games.  His success will depend on his control.  It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
  • Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer.  This is an interesting and unexpected idea.  He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings.  He does have good stuff and decent control.  Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation.  It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
  • Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter.  He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options.  I like the Fukudome idea.  According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder.  A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core.  Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
  • Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season.  Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee.  Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter.  He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.

Mike Plugh On Kosuke Fukudome

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Mike Plugh is a Japanese baseball guru, and he’s writing quite a bit these days.  I first caught on to his reading with the Matsuzaka Watch.  He also has a Yankees blog called Canyon of Heroes, and has been featured at Baseball Prospectus regularly.   

Following my April 29th post on Japanese right fielder Kosuke Fukudome, I asked Mike whether he thought Fukudome could play third base or center field capably.  Not only did Mike answer that question, but he gave some interesting background on Fukudome in general.  His thoughts are below.

On which positions Fukudome could play:

Fukudome would be an excellent Red Sox outfielder, and he’d hit a million doubles in that park. His days as an infielder are finished, but I think he could play any of the outfield positions. He’s best in right though. Center would be an option, but not the most attractive one from a defensive standpoint.

What we can expect offensively:

He is an on base machine with power to the gaps. He won’t be a home run slugger, but he’ll be standing on first or second base after about 40% of his plate appearances. 

On Fukudome’s personality and attitude:

He’s a competitor too. Kind of a throwback guy. No dyed hair, jewelry, image enhancements. Buzz cut, square jaw, intense eyes. Not that those things make you a good or bad player, but fans will be turned on by his serious approach.

On possible interested teams:

I think it’s premature to say who is or who isn’t interested in Fukudome. I happened to know that several MLB clubs are going to make a serious run at him. I can’t say who those teams are for confidentiality reasons, but it will be a multi-team battle for his services. He should command in the $12-15 million range over 3 or 4 years. It will be a very good buy for whichever team he chooses. The Red Sox would benefit from the additional TV coverage they’d receive, but a lot of clubs would like to break into the Japanese market and have scouts over here on a permanent basis.

Red Sox Eyeing Kosuke Fukudome?

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Kosume Fukudome is a 30 year-old outfielder currently playing for the Chunichi Dragons.  Mike Plugh praises his doubles power and has described him as an on-base machine with a rifle arm on defense.  He may compare to Hideki Matsui in some ways.  Should Fukudome come over to the Majors after this season, it won’t involve the posting process.  He’ll be a free agent.

According to injury guru and occasional rumormonger Will Carroll (subscription required), the Red Sox already have their eye on Fukudome.  Carroll doesn’t expect the Sox to acquire a long-term outfielder like Rocco Baldelli this summer because of their interest in Fukudome.

I will have to find out if Fukudome could play a credible center field or return to third base.  Otherwise, such a signing would only seem to make sense for Boston if they moved Manny Ramirez.  They don’t seem likely to try J.D. Drew as the regular CF.   

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