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Livan Hernandez

Mets and Devil Rays

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Ryan McConnell of the New Jersey Star-Ledger posted a run-down of Mets’ rumors, mostly old hat by now.  Items of note:

  • The Mets are being asked too much for both Chad Cordero and Octavio Dotel, causing them to take another look at Eric Gagne.  They are also looking at Matt Thornton (White Sox), Shawn Chacon (Pirates), Chad Bradford (Orioles) and Jon Rauch (Nationals).  I think they should go for Chad Bradford, silly contract be damned.
  • We’ve all heard about second base possibilities in Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta and Luis Castillo.  I think that of these candidates, Grudzielanek is the best defender, while Castillo is the best offensive player, even though Loretta is putting up better numbers this year.  All three will be free agents this off-season, with the exception of Grudzielanek if he earns the $4M player option for 2008 which vests with 500 plate appearances, a slim possibility.  Castillo is the youngest player and the best choice for the Mets, if they can get him.  He’s likely be a Type A free agent if the Mets let him go; if they don’t, he could be their 2008 second baseman.  All in all, though, I’d prefer the Mets stick with Damion Easley and Rubén Gotay.
  • Now the kicker.  This is what makes trade deadlines fun (and painful).  From McConnell:

And, finally, the hot, completely unsubstantiated rumor floating around my workplace was that the Mets and D-Rays were discussing a Lastings Milledge and "a Minor League pitcher" (probably Pelfrey, maybe Humber) for Carl Crawford. It didn’t pass my smell test — I’d think Tampa would command a lot more for their stud outfielder — but it’s fun to think about regardless. Plus, for what it’s worth, a Met scout was spotted at Tropicana Field last week.

It doesn’t pass my smell test either, but it’s still fun to think about, unless you’re convinced that Lastings Milledge is the next Gary Sheffield, like I am.

John Peterson writes for the Met-blog Blastings! Thrilledge.

Mariners Watching Starters

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UPDATE: Hickey writes that the Mariners have also scouted Kyle Lohse, Matt Morris, Jason Johnson (thought he went to Japan), and Octavio Dotel.  However, a deal seems unlikely because none of those players are worth top Mariner prospects.

According to Jim Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners have been scouting all kinds of available and not-so-available starters lately.

  • The Mariners have been scouting the White Sox "religiously" lately.  If they saw Javier Vazquez beat the Tigers on Tuesday, they came away impressed.  (However, Vazquez can and probably would veto a trade to the AL or NL West).  They were on hand to watch Jose Contreras tonight; the Tigers had batting practice with him and his ERA is up to 6.22.  Did you hear that?  That was the sound of Contreras’ remaining ounce of trade value evaporating.
  • As you know, the Ms watched Dontrelle Willis on Monday.  Compared to Contreras, Willis pitched well – four earned runs, nearly seven innings. 
  • The Ms also had a scout on hand to see Livan Hernandez twirl a gem over the Marlins on Tuesday.  Hey, at least he takes the ball every fifth day.  That has to be worth something.
  • Hickey says Seattle has also been monitoring the Astros, perhaps in hope of acquiring Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls.  He speculates that Wandy Rodriguez would be a coup for the Mariners.  Wand-Rod has thrown up stinkers in his last two outings but tossed a complete game shutout over the Mets in the game prior.  He’s inconsistent like that.  The Astros’ #2 starter for 2008 wouldn’t come cheap.

Graziano’s Latest: Livan, Wily Mo

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Dan Graziano at the Newark Star-Ledger has really stepped up in recent days with a lot of insider trade talk.  Let’s see what he has in store for us this morning.

  • Apparently Josh Byrnes is calling around, actively shopping Livan Hernandez.  According to Graziano, the Mets, Braves, and Mariners have expressed interest.  To the contrary, Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Mets and Braves are not interested.  Who to believe?  Hopefully the Mariners do better than Livan if they make a move for a starter.  To hear Nick Piecoro tell it, the Diamondbacks are more likely to just opt for the draft picks they’ll get if they let Hernandez leave via free agency.
  • The Yankees are in a quandary when it comes to dealing Scott Proctor or Kyle Farnsworth.  For Proctor, they want more than just a role player like Ty Wigginton.  They want a reliever back, which begs the question – why not just keep Proctor?  With Farnsy, the Yanks are reluctant to pay a big chunk of his $5.5 salary for ’08.  They should toss in $2MM and see if that’s enough to get Wiggy.
  • If the Red Sox can snag Bobby Kielty, they might turn around and trade Wily Mo Pena to the White Sox.  Wily Mo in that ballpark with 600 plate appearances?  40 home runs.  Might make Theo look bad.  Dejan Kovacevic mentions that Epstein is "actively shopping" Pena, and seems to like the idea of the Bucs sending Salomon Torres to Boston for him. 
  • The Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers are looking at Oakland lefty and impending free agent Joe Kennedy.  Kennedy is only 28 and he has had National League success as a starter.

Olney: D’Backs Could Trade Livan Hernandez

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ESPN’s Buster Olney brings up one available starting pitcher we haven’t mentioned here anytime recently: Livan Hernandez.  It hadn’t really occurred to me that the Diamondbacks could be sellers.  But according to various playoff odds reports, their chances of making the playoffs have slipped to 3-8%.  Our good friend Jeff Sackmann took a look at teams on the bubble in a recent column at Hardball Times and recommended the Diamondbacks sell off players such as Hernandez, Eric Byrnes, and Orlando Hudson.

Hernandez reaches free agency after this season, and it seems likely the D’Backs would let him leave.  Trading him now could make some sense.  He’s got about $2.7MM left on his contract this year.  As Olney says, Hernandez’s main virtue is durability.  He will take the ball every fifth day and give you six innings.  He’s no longer the seven inning per start horse he was from 1998-2005; his average is now around 6.3 innings per start.

As far as playoff experience…would a team like the Mets really want to give him a playoff start?  I wouldn’t think so.  No doubt the NLCS MVP version we saw in ’97 is a distant memory, and even his work for the Giants in ’02 is five years removed. 

Olney believes strong offensive NL teams like the Braves, Mets, or Phillies could take a look at Livan.  The Brewers, Dodgers, and Padres may also be looking to add a starter.

Diamondbacks Acquire Livan Hernandez

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Looks like someone got some faulty info about Livan Hernandez being pulled back from waivers; Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired the 31 year-old righty.  The Nats received Double A pitchers Matt Chico and Garrett Mock.  Chico has had more success with Tennessee so far.  Neither pitcher is on the 40-man roster, making it easier to get the deal done.

Hernandez is set to earn $8MM this season and $7MM in 2007.  While his strikeout rate has remained steady from last year, his hit and home run rates have spiked.  To his credit, his two August starts have been excellent.  The D’Backs are middle-of-the-pack as far as starting pitching and are just two games back in the West.  They’re only one game behind the Reds in the wild card.

Hernandez has 56 innings worth of playoff experience from his time with the Marlins and Giants.  He was the NLCS MVP with the Marlins after winning two games.

Rumor Roundup

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Another day, another rumor roundup.  Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.

The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason.  I guess this could help next year’s push for third place.  Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me.  Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.

The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt.  If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?

The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent.  The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season.  Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.

Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago.  Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).

Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.

Nats Want Milledge for Livan

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I find it almost comical that Jim Bowden would demand Lastings Milledge in a trade for Livan Hernandez.  I know he wants to save his job with the next Scott Kazmir deal, but c’mon now.  The Mets aren’t that desperate, are they?

Hernandez has an ERA over 6 and is only 31 years old in theory.  He makes $8MM this year and $7MM the next.  Whether or not Milledge is worthy of all the hype, the Mets could do a lot better.  I still think Livan will come around and could help the Mets, but at that price they need look at internal candidates instead. 

Milledge is at .284/.440/.447 in Triple A at age 21.  The 17% walk rate is an excellent development, and you have to figure the 20 HR power will come with time.

The Nationals do need to find a way to stock up one of baseball’s worst farm systems.  Hernandez, Jose Guillen, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, and Brian Schneider should keep the hot stove boiling all summer.      

Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge

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Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night.  A respected poster lays out this scenario:

Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)

Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)

I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post.  I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion.  My thoughts:

From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump.  It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece.  However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect.  Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.

If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006.  It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.

The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement.  I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons.  The team would love to get out from under that contract.  24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect.  The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot.  They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.

The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets.  It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito.  So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here.  Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.

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