Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Posada, Cardinals
A few articles that caught my eye this morning…
- Scott Boras seemingly scoffs at the idea of Alex Rodriguez being forced by the Yankees to sign in November. Reggie Jackson, a special adviser to the Yankees, thinks Rodriguez will top $300MM if he leaves. Jackson takes a subtle shot at A-Rod for his lack of postseason heroics. Rodriguez’s .279/.361/.483 career postseason line pales in comparison to Reggie’s .278/.354/.527. Wait, no it doesn’t.
- Barry Rozner thinks Jerry Reinsdorf could arrange for two blockbusters for his teams, netting Alex Rodriguez for the White Sox and Kobe Bryant for the Bulls. Rozner thinks the $300 mil would come back five-fold. Rozner manages to work in a shot at Aramis Ramirez, his second in two weeks. What did Aramis do to Barry? Anyway…I don’t consider the White Sox serious contenders for A-Rod.
- George King says Joe Torre’s departure is more likely to drive Jorge Posada away than Mariano Rivera.
- Bernie Miklasz talks about the Cardinals opening their wallet so far this offseason. Is there a chance payroll could go past $115MM?
Mariano Rivera To Test The Market
As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera. The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:
Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today. Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”
Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera. Ultimately I think they will. The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera. He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.
Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams. The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.
Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod
When we last heard from him eight days ago, Brian Cashman left himself some wiggle room to negotiate with Alex Rodriguez even if he opts out in November and the Yankees lose the Texas money. The implication then was that higher-ranking club officials could overrule Cashman’s recommendation.
Yesterday, after the Yankees’ meeting of the minds in Tampa, Cashman took a firmer stance:
If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract then we will not participate in free agency. That is accurate and that is definitive.
Why this is being aired out in public I’m not sure, but at this point the Yankees will seem kind of stupid if they do negotiate with Rodriguez after he opts out. It really seems that they’re not kidding about not wanting to lose the Texas money or enter a bidding war. Meanwhile Scott Boras just spent three full days convincing A-Rod to opt out. However, Ken Davidoff believes that rather than opt out, A-Rod will sign an extension amounting to $297MM over nine seasons.
George King also revealed that Bobby Abreu‘s $16MM option is at the bottom of the queue. The Yanks will make decisions on Joe Torre, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada first.
Odds and Ends: A-Rod, Boras, Pettitte
Early Monday morning reading material…
- Interesting article in the New York Daily News regarding Scott Boras and Alex Rodriguez. Boras insists that many of his clients have not taken the largest deal offered to them, giving examples. The article also touches upon recent Boras clients connected to performance-enhancing drugs (Rick Ankiel and Scott Schoeneweis). Boras’ agency is known for its obsessive attention to detail for all of its clients, and seeing a few of them busted raises some questions.
- Last winter, we discussed the possibility of Hiroki Kuroda coming over from Japan. Well, he’s a free agent again, and Nick Cafardo is wondering if 2008 will be the year. Cafardo also noted that Daisuke Matsuzaka did not earn the Red Sox nearly as much marketing revenue as Scott Boras suggested.
- Newsday’s Ken Davidoff says Andy Pettitte intends to exercise his $16MM player option for 2008. Davidoff points out that Pettitte has the same deadline for this decision as A-Rod has for his opt-out. Davidoff also mentions that Roger Clemens‘ most likely destination for 2008 appears to be back in Houston, if he plays.
- You’ve probably heard by now that Hank and Hal Steinbrenner will have final say on baseball decisions (especially Hank). Hank will insist Joba Chamberlain be used as a starter in ’08, heightening the need to re-sign Mariano Rivera.
- The Hardball Times tries to place dollar values on some top free agents, plus Adam Dunn.
Latest Phillies Rumors: Lowell, Rivera, Schilling
Let’s catch up on the rumors and minor moves involving the Phillies recently.
One offseason objective is, of course, third base. Abraham Nunez was an easy buyout decision; Pat Gillick will import a new third baseman this winter one way or another. Phils fans can stop dreaming up A-Rod scenarios; Gillick won’t pursue him. Mike Lowell is the one free agent 3B on the Phils’ radar. While Lowell wouldn’t mind playing in Philly, he made it clear yesterday that Boston remains his first choice. So there’s a good chance Gillick will have to get his man via trade. Scott Lauber names Garrett Atkins and Joe Crede (free agent after ’08, Boras client) as possible targets. We all know how Gillick loves dealing with Kenny Williams (and the Sox can use Josh Fields at third base).
Rod Barajas won’t be retained; Chris Coste will serve as the backup to Carlos Ruiz. A nice, cheap catching tandem.
How about pitching? Randy Miller has a source saying the Phils are targeting a couple of AL East stalwarts – Curt Schilling and Mariano Rivera. To sign Rivera at $12MM per and use Brett Myers in setup seems like a misallocation of resources to me. As for Schilling, Miller says he’s expressed interest in coming back to Philly to finish his career. I like the fit.
Miller also has some very interesting info on Aaron Rowand – he’s looking for a six-year, $84MM contract! Does that mean he ends up with a five-year, $60MM deal? Pretty hefty for a guy coming off a career year. Miller says the Phils won’t go for big-name replacements like Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.
Finally, Pat Burrell has surfaced as a solid trading chip. He’s left with a reasonable one-year, $14MM commitment, albeit with a full-no trade clause that would require more compensation. How about Burrell to the White Sox for Crede? Phils kick in a couple mil, the White Sox get much-needed OBP for ’08 plus draft picks when Burrell leaves.
Torre’s Status Will Influence Rivera
Mariano Rivera isn’t a sure thing to return to the Yankees in 2008. He’s not happy about Joe Torre’s unknown status, and he doesn’t seem thrilled that the Yanks passed on their opportunity to re-sign him earlier this year.
Jon Heyman’s best guess yesterday: the Yanks re-sign Rivera for two years and $26MM, plus an option year for 2010. That seems fairly reasonable to me; it’s still hard to picture a closer earning more than $13MM. But Rivera may listen to offers, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see a team offer him three years guaranteed.
One stopper who could average such a salary in his next deal is Joe Nathan. Nathan will be well underpaid at $6MM next year; he’s arguably the game’s best closer. From 2004-07, Nathan has a 1.94 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 282.3 innings. He’s also got 160 saves over that four-year span. If given an extension window, would the Yankees part with a Robinson Cano this winter to get Nathan?
Joba The Starter?
It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.
Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60. Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year." Now wait, where have we heard that argument before? Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been. Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise! Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right. With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum. And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start. Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now. Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference: the Yankees actually have a closer.
It’s an interesting conundrum. In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief. The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera. There’s an obvious divide in thought here.
I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done. Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc) would be solid for 2008. And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
No Boston For Mariano Rivera In ’08
Mariano Rivera, asked whether he could cross enemy lines and join the Red Sox as a free agent in 2008, said, "I don’t think I could do it." So we can almost officially cross Boston off the list. Which other clubs might be ready to woo him after this season?
I think the Giants, Rangers, Cubs, and Phillies should be top contenders. Those are the teams I can see having the need and willingness for an $11-12MM a year closer. Of course, the Yankees have to be considered the favorite.
What If Rivera Just Retires After ’07?
A reader recently brought an interesting New York Times article to my attention. Jack Curry’s article from December 10th, 1999 discusses Mariano Rivera‘s devotion to God. Some interesting quotes:
Curry:
"Finally, after he half-sobbed and half-spoke for 20 minutes, Rivera, who is 30, told the congregation that he would play baseball for four more years before retiring to become an evangelical minister or preacher."
Rivera:
"I would love to play as long as I can, but I think if I play four, five, or six more years, that’s enough and then I’ll stop. Maybe it’s one year. Maybe it’s two. You never know."
Curry:
"Then he stopped speculating and reaffirmed what he had told the congregation: ‘Like I said, I want to play four more years.’"
Rivera:
"If I came to be a free agent, I wouldn’t think about going anywhere else. I want to finish my career with the Yankees. Inside of me, I’m thinking four more years. That will be enough. I love the game, but I love God more."
By all accounts, Rivera should’ve retired by now. I’m not sure what happened in the last six years to change Rivera’s mind. But what if instead of being the object of his first-ever free agent bidding war, the Hall of Fame closer simply retires after 2007?
Yankees Won’t Have Advantage For Rivera
New York papers put out at least seven articles concerning Mariano Rivera today, even though almost nothing new was said. I took the liberty of summing it up for you:
Rivera on free agency:
"Everybody has the same shot. The Yankees will not have an advantage. Everyone will have the same shot."
Jeter on Rivera leaving:
"Mo ain’t going anywhere. Mo will be right here next year. … I’m sure he’d like an extension. I’d love for him to have an extension, too. I’m sure they’ll work it out."
Not much new here. But it’s spring training and these guys have deadlines. I apologize for adding any fuel to the fire; I’m going to compensate with some Royals material today or tomorrow. This website is the last place you’re going to find an East Coast bias, but New York churns out more rumors and articles than anywhere. My two cents: Jeter is right, he’s not going anywhere.