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Marlins Notes: Rotation, Smith

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The Miami Marlins haven’t had a lot to feel good about in recent seasons, but the rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. The Marlins rotation has been a talking point since around the All-Star break of 2019, and though they’re not yet a fearsome unit, they’re worth keeping an eye on. They finished the year 16th in the majors by ERA, 20th by FIP, 14th in HR/9, and 22nd by fWAR. They didn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s playing to strength given their ballpark. The biggest area of improvement looking ahead to next season will be control, as they finished second-to-last with 3.50 BB/9. Still, given where the franchise has been in recent seasons, any unit climbing from the cellar is noteworthy.

That said, the first wave of talent often becomes the last wave of prospect-gathering trade bait. At least for the time being, however, the Marlins aren’t overeager to move their starting pitching. Still, that doesn’t stop teams from asking, particularly about Caleb Smith, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Smith, 28, is the veteran at the front of their young group, and his trade value remains high due to having just over two years of service time. He struggled with the long ball in 2019, but it was an overall successful campaign: 10-11, 28 starts, 4.52 ERA/5.11 FIP, 153 1/3 innings. Smith definitely made strides in securing his spot as a major leaguer, though it would not be surprising were the Marlins to pivot and decide to move him.

Regardless, President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill suggested the Marlins are secure in their starting options heading into 2020, and they’re unlikely to make a major acquisition in that regard, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The current group includes Smith, 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernandez, and Robert Dugger. Alcantara and Smith are probably the only two with their rotation spots guaranteed. The rest of the group should have no trouble conjuring a sense of urgency, as top prospect Sixto Sanchez finished the year in Double-A, as did Edward Cabrera, perhaps their most promising arm after Sanchez.

The Marlins felt secure enough in this group (and the intriguing group of prospects coming behind them) that they dealt Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for young shortstop Jazz Chisholm. The position player side of the ball should soon see an influx of intriguing young talent get their chance in the big leagues. Along with Chisholm, the Marlins added JJ Bleday with the 4th overall pick in the draft and acquired another top prospect in Jesus Sanchez from the Rays. Chishold and Sanchez are likely to reach the majors in 2020, along with centefielder Monte Harrison. Chisholm, Sanzhez, and Harrison are the Marlins #3, 4 and 5 ranked prospect by MLB.com. On both sides of the ball, patience will carry the day for now in Miami. Given the gusto with which their division mates have approached the offseason, Miami is all but assured to finish 2020 in the NL East cellar for the third consecutive season.

NL Notes: Brewers, Moustakas, Shaw, Marlins, Anderson

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A return to Milwaukee for Mike Moustakas “seems inevitable,” writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also suspects the Crew aren’t willing to extend a multi-year offer to the 30-year-old third baseman. Moustakas, who yet again has garnered little interest in his repeat foray into the free-agent market, would figure to reprise his role as the team’s primary third baseman, shifting Travis Shaw across the diamond to second. Moose’s 105 wRC+ output was slightly down from the previous three seasons, though his hard-hit rate jumped to a career-best 41.2%. His ZiPS projection, released yesterday on FanGraphs, shines brightly, perhaps as a result: the system forecasts a 116 OPS+/3.2 WAR output for the longtime Royal, seeing him as an easily above-average big-league third baseman. MLB teams, it seems, are hardly in accord.

Here’s more from around the NL . . .

  • Milwaukee, who’s yet to tire of yo-yoing Shaw back and forth from second to third, also hasn’t begun extension talks with the now-versatile 28-year-old, reports Rosenthal. Fresh off his third 118 or better wRC+ season in four years, the former ninth-round selection of the Red Sox has found a home in Wisconsin, turning in consecutive 3.5+ fWAR campaigns in his first two seasons with the team. Peripherals paint an even better picture: Shaw upped his walk rate by nearly four percent, to 13.3, and dropped his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%, his first MLB season under 20 in the category. Though the minor-league track record was mostly stellar, save for two stints in AAA, the son of longtime MLB closer Jeff Shaw was never a highly-touted prospect, even in the hyped-up Boston system, and it’s certainly possible that the Brewers would like to see more before offering him a hefty chunk of change. Still, another season like the last two, and it may not be Milwaukee on the next deal’s bottom line.
  • The quartet of prospects sent from Milwaukee to Miami in the Christian Yelich deal, headlined by the trio of Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, and Isan Diaz, top 100 guys all, have yet to look the part. Still, Miami doesn’t view the return as a “lost cause,” writes Rosenthal, who notes that the Fish are still particularly high on minor-league strikeout king Harrison. Diaz, too, has flashed an intriguing power/plate-discipline combo in the upper minors, and appears poised to get his second-base shot in the upcoming campaign. Brinson, to be sure, suffered through a rookie campaign that almost could not have gone worse, but figures to get all the ship-righting opportunities he needs in the seasons to come.
  • Third baseman-turned-right fielder Brian Anderson will move back to the hot corner for 2019, tweets the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer. Anderson handled the shift with aplomb last season, posting 4 DRS and a +5 UZR on the way to an impressive 3.4 fWAR rookie campaign. Still, a young, well-rounded third baseman is a tougher find, and the Fish will surely like to test their young outfielders in the months to come. One-time incumbent Martin Prado may be on his last leg, and it seems the Marlins will again to look to the 35-year-old to fill his early-career super-utility role in 2019.

Marlins Add Seven Players To 40-Man Roster, Designate Three Others For Assignment

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The Marlins announced an avalanche of roster moves in advance of tonight’s deadline for protection from the Rule 5 Draft. Being selected to the 40-man roster are right-handers Jorge Guzman, Jordan Yamamoto, Jordan Holloway and Kyle Keller, infielder Isan Diaz, outfielder Monte Harrison and left-hander Jose Quijada. Adding that group required the creation of three spots on the 40-man roster, which led the club to designate left-hander Dillon Peters, outfielder Braxton Lee and right-hander Ben Meyer for assignment.

Of the players to be designated for assignment, Peters is perhaps the most interesting. It’s not long ago that the 26-year-old lefty was deemed one of the more promising arms in an admittedly thin Marlins system on the heels of a 2.38 ERA between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2016. Peters didn’t have gaudy strikeout numbers but showed excellent control, and he followed up that season with a 1.57 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 63 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017.

He’s been shelled in the Majors, though, surrendering a 6.10 ERA in 59 innings while displaying walk issues that weren’t present as he worked through the minors. At this point, he’s 26-year-old (27 next August) who’s yet to even pitch at Triple-A and hasn’t had success in the Majors — but one who did draw praise for an above-average breaking ball in the past. A year ago at this time, he was viewed as a largely MLB-ready back-of-the-rotation starter.

Lee, meanwhile, drew plus running grades as a prospect and was said to have an average or better glove with a chance to play center. He’s never shown any semblance of power but has previously had excellent contact skills and even won a Double-A batting title in 2017. His 2018 campaign was a disaster, though, as Lee hit just .233/.316/.294 across three minor league levels and didn’t hit in a tiny sample of 18 MLB plate appearances.

Meyer, 26 later this offseason, debuted in 2018 and was clobbered for 22 runs in 19 innings of work. He was sensational in 2017, pitching to a 2.02 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 111 1/3 innings — but those numbers came against much younger opposition, as Meyer was a college pitcher in his third full pro season splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced. He logged a 4.24 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 63 2/3 Triple-A innings this season.

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