Yoan Moncada Market Notes
With the evening’s news that prized young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is free to sign, additional information has begun to roll in. It isn’t hard to see why he has generated so much attention. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, Moncada may not have quite the certainty of an otherwise generally comparable prospect such as Corey Seager, but could reasonably be valued in the same range as — and, indeed, ahead of — a young player as heralded as Miguel Sano. That would make Moncada one of the best dozen or so pre-MLB properties in the game.
Here’s the latest:
- Moncada is expected to sign soon, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, although he does have workouts scheduled with individual teams through the middle of this month. The list of teams he has already worked out for does not appear to have been expanded upon from prior reports, with Sanchez noting (via Twitter) that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, and Brewers have all had private looks.
- With Moncada now eligible to sign, and a long stretch remaining before the July 2 market flips over, Badler tweets that the Cubs and Rangers are probably out of the mix. Moncada could still theoretically wait to sign with one of those teams — each of which is currently prohibited from paying all but relatively small international signing bonuses for blowing their allotment in past seasons — but that seems rather unlikely.
- Some clubs believe the Dodgers are a “strong favorite” to add Moncada, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Los Angeles has made no secret of its intention to pursue the talented 19-year-old.
- Another expected front-runner, the Red Sox, have remained fairly tight-lipped about Moncada, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski confirmed that his club had expressed interest and held a workout for Moncada, but otherwise would only acknowledge that Moncada is a talented player, as James Schmehl of MLive.com reports.
James Shields Expected To Sign By End Of Week
Reports this evening suggest that the wheels are now turning for free agent righty James Shields. With multiple offers in hand, says Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter), the veteran is expected to sign by the end of the week.
As I wrote yesterday, while Shields and agent Page Odle face a difficult task of maximizing value in the month of February, time remains for his market to re-develop. It appears that could now be taking place, with the list of suitors potentially growing this evening.
The Cardinals have now “shown interest” in Shields, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. While the St. Louis brass has insisted that the club feels good about its rotation depth, there are enough areas of concern that another arm could make good sense — particularly one of Shields’s quality.
Meanwhile, a rival general manager says that he believes the Yankees are “actively pursuing” Shields, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. New York certainly could justify buttressing its starting five: it probably has an even greater need to upgrade at the back end and protect against uncertainty in the projected rotation than do the Cards. On the other hand, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he hears the team is not changing its decision not to pursue top-of-the-market starters.
It certainly appears that both clubs have the financial wherewithal to make such a move. St. Louis has been judicious with committing future assets and maintains good forward-looking payroll flexibility. And New York can never be counted out from dipping into its coffers when opportunity arises.
As for other possibilities, the Padres are also believed to have engaged in recent discussions with the Shields camp, Morosi tweets. Another busy club, the White Sox, are almost certainly set to enter the spring with their current array of talent, GM Rick Hahn tells Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (via Twitter).
While both of these clubs have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Shields at various points in the past, it was never entirely clear whether that was based on analysis or real internal consideration. These latest reports appear to push the needle toward the latter. Obviously, the entry of either or both would be excellent news for Shields’s leverage.
NL West Notes: O’Brien, D-Backs, Padres, Grandal
By electing not to add a significant catcher to their ranks, the D-Backs are essentially giving prospect Peter O’Brien, acquired in last summer’s Martin Prado trade, a vote of confidence. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America isn’t so sure that’s a wise idea, and he explains his reasoning after speaking to several scouts from around the game. O’Brien’s large frame limits his agility behind the plate, causing him to struggle with receiving breaking balls to his right. He also has an inconsistent transfer motion when attempting to throw runners out, and while he’s caught 24 percent of base-stealers in his minor league career, he caught just three of 31 last year in Double-A. Cooper notes that few scouts believe he can catch long-term, and even fewer think he could do so in 2015. One pro scouting director to whom Cooper spoke said he’d yet to see a report from a single evaluator who thought O’Brien could be a big league regular behind the plate.
Here’s more on the D-Backs’ catching situation and the NL West…
- Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello also examined Arizona’s current supply of catchers (albeit, before the team signed Gerald Laird), noting that some teams wouldn’t be content with the current group competing for their backup job, let alone the starting job. However, the offensive loss may not be the biggest issue for the D-Backs, Petriello notes. Rather, the drop from Miguel Montero‘s excellent pitch framing could be significantly detrimental to pitchers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster. All are coming from organizations that have employed excellent framers (Christian Vazquez in Boston and Jose Molina in Tampa), and yet each has either struggled with command or struggled to match his peripherals. Petriello, like Cooper before him, wonders if the Snakes will truly take this group into camp or make an addition. Even after adding Laird to the mix, I find myself in the same boat.
- The Padres have “won the offseason,” MLB.com’s Richard Justice opines. While teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners all got better, GM A.J. Preller’s nearly unprecedented roster overhaul has taken the Padres from baseball’s worst offense to legitimate NL West contenders, in Justice’s eyes. While the Red Sox may have made themselves a better all-around offense than San Diego, he notes, Boston already had the trio of David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Dustin Pedroia in place and was therefore starting from a higher point. Preller’s moves have created expectations and excitement among a fan base that previously had been highly skeptical of the new regime.
- Yasmani Grandal feels that he can rebound with the Dodgers in 2015, he told reporters, including Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, at this weekend’s fan festival. Grandal feels that a knee injury caused his overall production to plummet in 2014 and points to a strong winter ball showing — he hit .328/.469/.541 in 19 games — as evidence that his knee is “like it was before.” Grandal is open to any distribution of playing time with fellow backstop A.J. Ellis and said he’s already met with Ellis and manager Don Mattingly about the coming season. Ellis and Grandal both gave the same message to Mattingly, he tells Hernandez: “Whatever it takes to win.”
Padres To Sign Wil Nieves
FEB. 3: Nieves will earn $850K if he makes the Major League roster, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter).
FEB. 2: The Padres have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent backstop Wil Nieves, Corey Brock of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Nieves will receive an invite to big league camp and should have a chance to challenge for a backup job, says Brock.
Nieves follows Gerald Laird off the board, leaving few options left among the veteran free agent backstops who saw some MLB time last year. The 37-year-old spent last year as the Phillies’ second option behind the plate.
Over his eleven-year big league career, Nieves has compiled a .243/.281/.317 slash in 1,246 turns at bat. He has actually outperformed that mark in the last two years, averaging a .661 OPS over 334 plate appearances, although he had a much stronger line in 2013 and benefited from a .340+ BABIP in both seasons.
NL West Notes: Greinke, Rockies, Padres
You could say that Clint Barmes is something of a hipster. He signed his one-year, $1.6MM deal with the Padres on December 3rd – just before they became cool. “Being one of the earlier guys to sign over there, you hear from the GM that they’re going to try to make these trades and sign these guys,” Barmes said, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “It happens every year. You hear a lot of that. But to have a guy do what he’s done has been pretty impressive. My agent said they were focusing on making some changes and bringing guys in. It’s definitely going to be exciting.” More from the NL West..
- Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke says that he hasn’t decided whether to opt out of his contract after the season, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. The 31-year-old would forfeit three years and $71MM if he opts out, but the recent deals landed by Max Scherzer and Jon Lester indicate that he can likely make even more. Still, the hurler was very complimentary of the organization. “I do know I have really enjoyed L.A. I don’t think you could get a better organization. The owners are amazing. Our front office is, by reputation, the best – or at least in the top three in the game. Our coaching staff is great too. There’s not really any better options anywhere besides here,” Greinke said.
- Change is coming for the Rockies, but it’s not necessarily coming right now. Colorado could look quite different in 2016, as Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post writes. GM Jeff Bridich didn’t make major moves despite saying that he was “keeping his eyes and ears open” for potential deals involving everybody this winter, but those trades could go down this summer. Saunders writes that come August, it’s conceivable that the Rockies could be without Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Justin Morneau.
- It’s been a crazy offseason for the Padres and Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego ranked the biggest moves made by GM A.J. Preller. The acquisition of Matt Kemp takes the top spot, followed by the trades made for fellow outfielders Wil Myers and Justin Upton, respectively.
NL West Notes: Padres, Greinke, Withrow
The Padres are baseball’s most improved team, opines Jim Duquette of MLB.com. The additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris should revive an offense that has slumbered for years. GM A.J. Preller managed to overhaul the offense without dipping into his starting pitching depth nor by trading the team’s best prospects. For what it’s worth, I’m more impressed by the efforts of the Cubs, who Duquette lists as the fifth most improved club.
- Dodgers starter Zack Greinke has not decided if he will opt out of his contract following the 2015 season, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The 31-year-old signed a six-year, $147MM contract prior to the 2013 season, but he can opt out following next season. He’s averaged a 2.67 ERA over the last two seasons, which could set him up for another big, multi-year contract in free agency. In the past, we’ve seen CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez leverage opt outs with the Yankees to gain more guaranteed dollars and years. Greinke may take the same approach with the Dodgers. Per his comments, he seems comfortable in Los Angeles.
- Greinke doesn’t believe the Dodgers improved via “addition by subtraction” this offseason. Outgoing players like Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon, and Brian Wilson weren’t distractions in the clubhouse per Greinke. President Andrew Friedman has admitted the club might lose a little on offense, but the goal is to replace the runs scored with better defense and depth.
- Reliever Chris Withrow may be a long shot to help the Dodgers this season, reports Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles (via Twitter). The righty has pitched well in parts of two seasons with Los Angeles, with a 2.73 ERA, 11.41 K/9, and 4.98 BB/9 in 56 innings. He’s currently recovering from Tommy John and back surgeries. The back issue has slowed the timetable for his Tommy John rehab.
Padres Have Considered Trade For Luis Sardinas
The Padres have considered trading for Brewers shortstop Luis Sardinas, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). Rosenthal says the two teams have not talked lately, although the Padres’ interest in Sardinas suggests that their busy offseason might not yet be over.
The Brewers acquired Sardinas from the Rangers in the Yovani Gallardo trade, and Padres GM A.J. Preller worked for the Rangers before taking his current position. The Brewers appear relatively set at their middle infield with Scooter Gennett at second and Jean Segura at shortstop, while the Padres have a more unsettled shortstop picture (with their depth chart currently topped by Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes), so a trade involving Sardinas would appear to make sense for both teams.
Sardinas, 21, hit .261/.303/.313 in 125 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2014. His youth might account for some of his offensive troubles, although he’s never hit well above Class A and has never shown much power potential. He has excellent speed and good defensive tools.
The Padres remain in touch with the Phillies regarding Cole Hamels, although Rosenthal notes that some sources feel the Padres don’t have the talent to complete the deal. In mid-January, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported that the Padres were among the key teams pursuing Hamels.
Omar Minaya Joins MLBPA As Senior Adviser
The Major League Baseball Players Association has announced that Omar Minaya has left his post as senior vice president of baseball operations for the Padres to join the MLBPA as a senior adviser to executive director Tony Clark.
With the MLBPA, Minaya will focus on international affairs and game development in the United States, per the Associated Press. Clark stressed the importance of having the Dominican-born Minaya join the union’s ranks as the number of Latin American players in the game continues to increase. Minaya may also play a part in determining the structure of a potential international draft, which the league is eyeing upon the completion of the current collective bargaining agreement at the end of the 2016 season.
In a statement within the press release, Minaya said he feels that players “provide the sport with its heart and soul.” The former Mets GM continued: “I share the Players’ and Tony’s views on the state of the game, especially as they relate to what active and inactive Players are doing to help develop the game, widen its appeal and excite the next generation of players, while ensuring the integrity of the competition on the field is maintained.”
Cuba Links: Unblocking, Moncada, Olivera
We looked yesterday at the latest on the slowly-moving Yoan Moncada signing eligibility process. Today, there’s an update to that story as well as some more interesting info on the always-intriguing Cuban market:
- It is Major League Baseball, not the U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), that is currently holding up Moncada’s freedom to sign, reports Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Though MLB has already declared him a free agent, and Moncada has met the standards for a “general license” that would leave him free to sign (“unblocked”) in OFAC’s eyes, the league is not permitting Moncada (and others) to reach eligibility based on that general license. Instead, per Badler, MLB has required players since Yasiel Puig to apply for and receive a “specific license,” creating up to a six-month delay. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez adds (via Twitter) that OFAC changed its rules four years ago, with the additional step (presumably, the specific license) being added at some intervening point.
- As Badler explains, if the process drags on long enough, it could create some intrigue, as teams like the Yankees and Red Sox will face a two-year international signing ban (for all but sub-$300K bonus amounts) beginning on June 15 of this year.
- Fellow second basemen Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez, among other players, are awaiting their specific licenses, like Moncada, Badler notes.
- Olivera, of course, is more of a plug-and-play option than the other, young Cuban middle infielders. Baseball America passes on some video of Olivera, who cuts rather an imposing figure for a second baseman. Badler wrote up Olivera’s efforts yesterday, noting that the Padres, Giants, Athletics, and Braves had significant presences in the stands.
Latest On Yoan Moncada
The international market provides opportunities to make (mostly) open-market purchases of the rights to the types of players who rarely can be acquired in that manner. Recent years have brought early-prime starters (Masahiro Tanaka, Hyun-jin Ryu), still-youthful sluggers (Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes), and high-upside talents (Yasiel Puig, Jorge Soler). Cuban second baseman Yoan Moncada certainly fits into that last category, rating as the type of player who would be chosen at or near the top of an amateur draft. In that regard, his ultimate payday (bonus plus ~100% penalty) will provide some fascinating insight into team valuations. But, of course, we are still waiting for the United States Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) to establish Moncada’s eligibility to sign. Here’s the latest:
- The precise hold-up in Moncada’s seemingly overdue OFAC application is not clear, writes Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs. Moncada’s agent indicated that he has not heard from OFAC since President Obama announced changes in the US diplomatic stance toward Cuba, seemingly indicating that higher-level activity is playing a role in Moncada’s situation. As McDaniel explains, MLB is working with the government to determine how to apply new unblocking policies. For what it’s worth, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez notes on Twitter, a similar policy appears to have been in place several years back, when Cespedes was preparing to enter the market.
- One entirely hypothetical reason for the delay with regard to Moncada, apart from the broader diplomatic considerations, is the fact that he was allowed to leave the island legally. Per McDaniel, concern that money could flow from Moncada back to the Cuban government is a possible, but by no means substantiated, factor distinguishing his situation.
- Of note, fellow top young middle infielder Andy Ibanez is also rumored to have left the island with the blessing of the government. There are rumblings that he could be unblocked soon, however, McDaniel notes.
- As for another largely-uncertain bit of information, McDaniel adds that the latest chatter has Moncada going for about a $80MM total investment (based on a $40MM bonus).
- Moncada worked out for the Dodgers this morning, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Los Angeles has given public indication of its interest, and if impressed with its private look will certainly have to be counted among the most capable suitors. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and manager Don Mattingly were both on hand, Sanchez reports on Twitter.
- The other teams to have held private workouts are the Brewers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Padres, Sanchez tweets.