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Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Tigers Claim Ty Adcock From Mariners

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The Tigers have claimed right-hander Ty Adcock off waivers from the Mariners, per announcements from both clubs. The Tigers had an open 40-man roster spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move. The righty has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo.

Adcock, 27, was drafted by the Mariners in 2019 but hasn’t been able to pitch too much since then. The pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020 and then Adcock required Tommy John surgery in April of 2021, which put him out of action for that season and most of 2022.

Last year, he was able to get back on track a bit. He tossed 20 2/3 innings in the minors between High-A and Double-A with a 1.74 earned run average. He struck out 29.3% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 6.7% clip. He was also able to make his major league debut and posted a 3.45 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. His 19% strikeout rate was a bit below average but he didn’t issue any walks.

Here in 2024, Adcock was optioned to Triple-A to start the year and got off to a shaky start, allowing two earned runs in his first 2 1/3 innings. That included three walks, though one of them was intentional. The M’s shook up their bullpen last week and Adcock got bumped off the roster.

As mentioned, the Tigers had an open roster spot, so nabbing Adcock off waivers was basically free depth for them. The righty has a very limited track record due to missing so much time but he averaged 96.6 miles per hour on his fastball in the majors last year, with his slider at 86.5 mph. Power pitchers often come with control issues but that hasn’t been the case so far in Adcock’s brief amount of official action.

Adcock will report to Toledo and look to position himself for his next big league call-up. He still has two options and just a few weeks of service time, so he could theoretically stick on the roster for many years, as long as he justifies his spot with his performance.

Mariners Promote Jonatan Clase, Place Dominic Canzone On Injured List

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April 15: The Mariners formally announced Monday that they’ve recalled Clase for his MLB debut. Canzone indeed was placed on the injured list with a sprained AC joint.

April 14: The Mariners will be calling up outfield prospect Jonatan Clase, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (X link).  It seems like Clase will replace Dominic Canzone on the active roster, as Canzone suffered a left AC joint sprain in today’s game and will surely be placed on the 10-day injured list.  No further roster move will need to be made since Clase is already on Seattle’s 40-man.

Clase’s first appearance in a game will mark his official MLB debut, and the highlight of a pro career that began as an international signing in 2018.  Over 1483 plate appearances in the minors, Clase has hit .263/.376/.457 with 39 homers and 183 stolen bases (out of 221 attempts).  Those numbers include a .308/.404/.641 slash line in 47 PA for Triple-A Tacoma this season, which marked Clase’s first taste of Triple-A ball.

The combination of this hot start and Canzone’s injury have now punched Clase’s ticket to the Show, though questions remain about his all-around readiness.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Clase as the tenth-best prospect in the Mariners’ farm system based on his incredible 70-grade speed and impressive overall set of tools, but as BA’s scouting report notes, “he is an aggressive and energetic player, who alternately excites and frustrates.”

Clase (who turns 22 next month) has struck out in 25.55% of his career minor league plate appearances, making him a bit of a three-true-outcomes style of player given that he draws a fair share of walks and has some good raw power.  At only 5’9″ and 150 pounds, Clase doesn’t fit the usual physical model for a power hitter, so if the power doesn’t translate against Major League pitching, Clase will need to improve his contact to better maximize his speed.  As MLB Pipeline’s report puts it, “maintaining a sound approach and not selling out for power and getting away from his best abilities will also be vital.”

Clase became a switch-hitter in 2022 and his career splits are generally pretty even, though his numbers are a lot better as a left-handed batter in his small sample of Triple-A at-bats.  This could indicate that he’ll slide into Canzone’s role as the left-handed hitting side of a left field platoon with righty-swinging Dylan Moore.  Clase doesn’t have a great throwing arm so he has played only left and center field, and his glovework is considered solid enough to handle some center at the big league level.

Mariners, Luke Barker Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Luke Barker, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. The Gaeta Sports client will head to Triple-A Tacoma.

Barker, 32, made three appearances for the Brewers in 2022 — his lone MLB experience to date. The right-hander was undrafted out of Division-II Chico State University in California back in 2015 but parlayed a dominant showing in the independent Frontier League into a minor league look with the Brewers organization. He spent the next six seasons in the Brewers system, working toward that ’22 debut.

While Barker was tagged for five runs in four innings during his MLB cup of coffee, his minor league track record is outstanding. In 261 2/3 minor league innings, the righty carries a 2.38 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. That includes three seasons of Triple-A work — a total of 116 1/3 frames with a 2.32 earned run average, an even better 30.4% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. Barker doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91 mph on his heater during his brief MLB look, but he’s routinely posted swinging-strike rates north of 14% in the upper minors.

Barker didn’t pitch in 2023. He spent the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery after suffering a UCL tear late in the 2022 campaign. He’ll now join just the second organization of his career.

The Mariners aren’t short on talented relievers, though two of their best are currently on the 15-day injured list: righties Matt Brash and Gregory Santos. Brash was slowed by a bout of elbow inflammation during spring training, while Santos suffered a lat strain late in camp. Neither has pitched in the big leagues or on a minor league rehab assignment so far this season. Barker will give the M’s some more depth in the upper minors. Seattle has a recent track record of striking gold on unheralded bullpen acquisitions — Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo among them — and Barker will hope to add his name to the list.

Dominic Canzone Leaves Game With AC Joint Sprain

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  • Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone likely seems headed for the 10-day IL after suffering a left AC joint sprain in today’s game.  In the second inning, Canzone collided with the wall while catching a Mike Tauchman fly ball, and had to be removed from the game.  Playing in his second MLB campaign, Canzone has hit .219/.286/.531 over 35 plate appearances for Seattle, hitting three homers as part of his early-season power surge.  Canzone and Dylan Moore have shared a left-field platoon, but if Canzone is out, Moore could get more of a regular role, or the Mariners could have Luke Raley assume the lefty-swinging side of the platoon.

Beau Taylor Retires, Joins Mariners’ Triple-A Coaching Staff

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Former big league catcher Beau Taylor has retired, and taken a new role as the first base coach of the Mariners’ Triple-A Tacoma affiliate. An earlier version of this post indicated that Taylor had signed a minor league deal with the M’s, but as explained by Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto, Taylor has decided to wrap up his playing career.

Taylor was selected by the A’s in the fifth round of the 2011 draft, but did not make his big league debut with the club until 2018, when he slashed .200/.333/.400 in a seven-game cup of coffee with Oakland. Taylor spent the next two seasons bouncing between the A’s as well as both Toronto and Cleveland as a depth option behind the plate, appearing in just 18 big league games during that time. The catcher’s seven-game stint in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season represents his most recent big league experience.

Since then, Taylor has spent time in the Reds, A’s, and Orioles organizations at the minor league level, most recently batting a decent .222/.365/.368 in 50 games split between Oakland and Baltimore’s Triple-A affiliates during the 2022 season. Taylor departed affiliated ball last year in favor of signing with the Atlantic League’s High Point Rockers and enjoyed a strong season in indy ball. Beau appeared in 77 games (catching 61) and slashed a strong .291/.386/.453 with nine homers and 16 doubles in 316 trips to the plate.

Mariners Announce Several Roster Moves

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4:15pm: Bolton is dealing with kidney stones, per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.

3:10pm: The Mariners shook up their bullpen with a series of roster moves Monday. Right-handers Brett de Geus and Tyson Miller were selected to the 40-man roster from Triple-A Tacoma, with righty Ty Adcock being designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Right-handers Cody Bolton and Collin Snider were both placed on the 15-day injured list — the latter due to a knee contusion and the former with what the team labeled a “general medical issue.” The Mariners also reinstated first baseman Ty France from the paternity list and optioned infielder/outfielder Samad Taylor to Tacoma.

Both Miller and de Geus have big league experience, albeit fairly minimal. The 28-year-old Miller was a fourth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2016 and has pitched for five different teams over the past four years (Cubs, Rangers, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers). In 31 career innings, he’s been tagged for an ugly 6.97 ERA, though his Triple-A work is far better. Miller was roughed up for an ERA north of 7.00 in his first taste of Triple-A as a 23-year-old back in 2019. In parts of three seasons since that time he’s logged a 3.85 ERA in just under 200 innings. That includes 43 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with the Triple-A clubs for the Dodgers and Mets last year, during which he punched out 28% of his opponents.

The 26-year-old de Geus pitched 50 MLB frames between the Mariners and D-backs back in 2021 after Texas plucked him from the Dodgers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. He made 19 appearances as a Rangers and another 26 as a D-back, struggling mightily in both stops. Given that de Geus pitched in A-ball in 2019 then didn’t pitch with an affiliate in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, it’s not all that surprising that he was hammered by MLB hitters in his debut campaign. In those 50 frames, he yielded a 7.56 ERA.

Even to this point in his career, de Geus only has 14 Triple-A frames under his belt. He’s been hit hard in that tiny sample as well, but he pitched 35 1/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA in Double-A for the Royals last season. De Geus has plenty of experience working multiple innings as a reliever and has also been a starter in the past, so he can provide some length to the Seattle bullpen while he’s up.

Adcock, 27, made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2023. The former eighth-round pick tossed 15 2/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA and 19% strikeout rate out of Scott Servais’ bullpen and didn’t issue a walk or hit any of his 58 opponents with a pitch. Adcock was never going to sustain that level of command, but he still walked only five of the 75 hitters he faced between High-A and Double-A last year (6.66%). However, he’s already issued three free passes in 2024 despite facing just a dozen opponents. The Mariners will have a week to trade Adcock, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Mariners Release Sean Poppen

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The Mariners released right-handed pitcher Sean Poppen today, according to his player page on MLB.com (h/t to Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto). Poppen, 30, signed a minor league deal with the club in January.

The Twins selected Poppen out of Harvard in the 19th round of the 2016 draft. Though he was never a highly-regarded prospect, the righty rose through the ranks of Minnesota’s system, succeeding at every step along the way. He put up a 2.97 ERA in eight games of Rookie ball, a 2.77 ERA in 18 games at Low-A, a 3.15 ERA in 19 games at High-A, a 3.96 ERA in 26 games at Double-A, and a 1.55 ERA in five games at Triple-A before he was first called up to join the Twins in 2019. He bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A over the next four seasons, while he also bounced from the Twins to the Pirates to the Rays to the Diamondbacks. In a total of 63 MLB appearances from 2019-22, he pitched to a 5.08 ERA and 4.12 SIERA, earning three wins, one save, and six holds.

Following the 2022 season, the Padres claimed Poppen from the D-backs. Out of minor league options, he was soon designated for assignment and sent outright to Triple-A El Paso, where he spent the 2023 campaign. Over 58 1/3 innings, he posted an ugly 6.33 ERA and a poor 1.70 K/BB, his worst in any season at any level. He elected free agency in November.

Although Poppen received a spring training invite from the Mariners this year, his time with Seattle would turn out to be short. He pitched well in five outings this spring, striking out eight and walking just one in 5 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, he didn’t look nearly as sharp in his Triple-A debut with the Tacoma Rainiers, giving up two walks, two homers, and four earned runs over two frames in a 7-9 loss to the Oklahoma City Baseball Club. While he performed much better in his second appearance, retiring all four Salt Lake Bees batters he faced, it wasn’t enough to save his job in the Mariners organization. Poppen is now a free agent.

Mariners Release Cory Abbott

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The Mariners released right-hander Cory Abbott yesterday, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s now a free agent and can be signed by any club.

Abbott, 28, signed a minor league deal with the club in January and was in big league camp until being reassigned to minor league camp at the beginning of March. He was with Triple-A Tacoma long enough to make one regular season start lasting three innings, during which he allowed three earned runs on four hits and two walks while recording two strikeouts.

Selected by the Cubs in the second round of the 2017 draft, he was a notable prospect coming up the minors but hasn’t been able to find success in the majors or in Triple-A. Prior to the pandemic, he posted a 2.84 earned run average in the minors, getting as high as Double-A. Since the minors were canceled in 2020, he’s pitched in parts of four Triple-A seasons with a 5.51 ERA in 189 1/3 innings. He has struck out an impressive 28.5% of batters faced in that time but has also given out walks at a 12.9% clip.

He’s also thrown 104 2/3 innings at the big league level from 2021 to 2023 but with a 6.02 ERA. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate in that time were both a few points worse than league average.

Abbott’s lack of results at both the major league and Triple-A levels will tamp down his interest, but the Triple-A strikeouts are interesting. If any club feels they have the key to unlocking something with Abbott, he can be had for another no-risk minor league deal. If he eventually winds his way back to the majors, he is out of options but has just over a year of service time and therefore has years of potential club control.

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