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Cardinals Have Work To Do

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Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals.  Let’s discuss.

  • The Cardinals have $83.8MM committed to 12 players for 2008.  Even worse, they don’t know what they’re going to get out of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, and Mark Mulder. They are spending $45MM on those five and may get very little production.
  • Next year’s payroll may approach $115MM on the high end, but that doesn’t mean the Cards have $30MM to burn.  Their 0-3 guys will earn roughly $5MM in aggregate, and the arbitration-eligible group may run another $5MM even if a few are cut loose.  So I’m thinking more like $20MM to burn, and Walt Jocketty will have to stretch that money pretty far.
  • The Cardinals need a power hitter, two starters, and a shortstop.  Tony La Russa, if he returns, won’t be "going young."
  • Joel Pineiro could be one of the starters, but if the Cards view him as a cheap #5 they’re going to be disappointed.  He’ll get paid.
  • An earlier Strauss article has a couple of rumors of note.  We learned that the Cards were fairly close to signing Miguel Batista last winter and almost traded Anthony Reyes to the Phillies this summer.

Here’s what I see happening this winter.  The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy.  I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement.  Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won’t have him back.

It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop.  On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn’t, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year.  Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).

Needs and Luxuries: St. Louis Cardinals

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I’ve had several requests for the Cardinals in this series, so here we go.

C – Yadier Molina
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Adam Kennedy
SS – Brendan Ryan
3B – Scott Rolen
LF – Chris Duncan/Ryan Ludwick
CF – Jim Edmonds
RF – Rick Ankiel

SP – Adam Wainwright
SP – Braden Looper
SP – Chris Carpenter (half season at best)
SP – Mark Mulder
SP – Brad Thompson/Anthony Reyes/Todd Wellemeyer

Setup: Ryan Franklin
Closer: Jason Isringhausen

Needs

For starters, the Cards might need a shortstop.  25 year-old Brendan Ryan is hitting .302/.355/.426 in 169 ABs, better than his Triple A performance (.272/.328/.341 in 323 ABs).  I spoke to Viva El Birdos’ Larry Borowsky on this topic today.  Assuming Tony La Russa is around, Larry doesn’t expect Ryan to get starting gig at short next year.   You may recall La Russa’s benching of Ryan recently for swinging at a 3-0 pitch and his general lack of patience with youngsters.

Larry speculated that David Eckstein would be allowed to walk and the team would try to make a splash by acquiring a shortstop via trade, perhaps Rafael Furcal or another go-round with Edgar Renteria.  Makes sense.  The Cards have some interesting young players: Duncan, Ankiel, Reyes, Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Jamie Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Jarrett Hoffpauir, and Mark Hamilton.  Obviously you don’t want to gut the farm system for one year of a decent veteran shortstop.  Reyes is a young player who is out of options and has had some chances already.  I could see him with the Braves.

The other need is, of course, starting pitching.  The Cardinals revamped their rotation this year, and the two bullpen converts stuck.  They can hope for but not count on Carpenter and Mulder.  They can fill the fifth slot with whoever.  Don’t pencil in Joel Pineiro’s $4MM player option for ’08 just yet – he might prefer to hit the open market.  It seems that one or two decent starters must be imported.  Borowsky discusses trade candidates here, and here’s the free agent list.  It’d be nice to sign a healthy free agent, but Kyle Lohse is going to want $40MM.  There are many other intriguing gambles among the free agent starters.

Luxuries

I’m not confident that the Cardinals have a surplus of anything.  It’s true that they have a lot of outfielders, but they all have issues.  Duncan can’t hit lefties or play defense. Ludwick is a 29 year-old journeyman. Ankiel has the HGH stigma.  Edmonds is old, expensive, and ineffective.  Encarnacion’s terrible injury may be career-threatening.  Rasmus isn’t ready.  Still, if a big trade is made, it might have to include Duncan. 

As I said earlier, Reyes is out of options and a prime candidate to be dealt.  He turns 26 soon; plenty of clubs would like to try to turn him around.  He might be part of a package for a shortstop or veteran starter.

In any other division I’d recommend this team cash in its chips and go for a full-blown rebuild.  But this is the NL Central, and if a few offseason gambles work out they can be right back in the thick of things.

Cards Need Starters For ’08

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Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos writes today that the Cardinals again will need to revamp their starting rotation this winter.  He says Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper are the "sure things" for ’08.

We all know how weak the free agent market is.  Borowsky points out that the trade market looks much better, with a host of good pitchers set to reach free agency after the ’08 season.  And don’t forget possibly available young under-contract guys like Joe Blanton and Noah Lowry.

Borowsky prefers A.J. Burnett but finds a Jon Garland rental more reasonable.  However the Cards’ cupboard of prospects is a bit bare and a trade would probably center around Anthony Reyes.   

Could White Sox Sign Torii Hunter?

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The Twins came to Chicago on Friday, sparking another round of Torii Hunter speculation for the White Sox.  Hunter, of course, played it cool. He basically said he’d be honored if the Sox wanted him, and wouldn’t have a problem playing for one of the Twins’ biggest rivals.

Remember, though, that Hunter’s bare minimum contract is 5/75 and the White Sox are currently looking at $92MM+ committed for 2008.  Even a backloaded deal would take the Sox close to their payroll limit.  While moving Jon Garland for cheap young players is a distinct possibility, I’m not sure if the rotation can take the hit.  And no one’s taking on Jose Contreras’s contract.  Kenny Williams is in a bit of a pickle as his farm system could use a reload but the team has too many veterans to rebuild.  He could trade them all off but Sox fans would revolt.

Despite the salary concern, Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press names the Sox as Hunter’s leading suitor and crosses the Cardinals off the list.

Cardinals Face Decisions On Relievers

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It seemed Jason Isringhausen’s career was in jeopardy less than a year ago, but he’s fully returned to form and re-established himself as a successful closer.  He’s been ridiculously hard to hit this year, allowing a career-best 4.85 hits per nine innings. 

The Cardinals hold a very reasonable $8MM club option for 2008, with a $1.25MM buyout attached.  So there’s no doubt Izzy will be donning Cardinal red once again next year.  He’ll probably reach his 300th save, too.  The Cardinals may do that one better, though, giving him a contract to cover 2008-09 as they did Jim Edmonds.  I admit I liked the Edmonds deal at the time, but the Cardinals could’ve minimized risk by simply exercising his ’07 option and leaving waiting on ’08.  The same may apply here.

Additionally, it seems Cards reliever Russ Springer has scrapped retirement plans and would like to come back in 2008.  It’s known that Springer has his son attending a specific school in St. Louis and would like to keep him there.  So look for the Cards to ink him for $3MM or so.  Surely he could get a two-year deal on the open market, so the length will depend on Springer’s plans.

Walt Jocketty already locked up Ryan Franklin, another member of the St. Louis pen having a fine season.  Franklin is signed for 2008-09 for $5MM, with a club option for 2010. 

Coming into the season, who would’ve thought the three righties would form perhaps the best relief trio in the game?  The surprising nature of this speaks to the volatility of bullpens, which makes you wonder whether the Cardinals will want the same three pitchers under more expensive contracts in 2009.      

Disgruntled Encarnacion Could Be Moved

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Cardinals right fielder Juan Encarnacion is not happy about his recent lack of playing time.  The St. Louis Post-Dispatch mentions that Encarnacion has spoken to his agent about potential trades.  Besides Encarnacion, the Cards have Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Ludwick, and So Taguchi competing for playing time.  There’s really not a clear choice to demote, either.

The Encarnacion signing back in ’05 has a lot in common with the Cubs’ signing of Jacque Jones.  Both mediocre right fielders signed at about three years, $15MM.  Both signings were of the "well, we gotta sign somebody" variety.  And both signings, by their second year, have come to be viewed mostly as burdens.

Encarnacion makes about $1.45MM more this year plus $6.5MM in ’08.  I imagine such a contract would clear waivers.  Any contenders looking for a mediocre outfielder?  The Twins might make sense.  Viva El Birdos lists the Tigers and Angels as other possibilities.     

Edmonds Would Waive No-Trade Rights

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Cardinals center fielder Jim Edmonds has the right to veto any deal as a 10-and-5 player.  And while the Cardinals have never asked him to approve a deal, he said recently that he’d be open-minded if the team wanted to move him.

Edmonds makes another $3.66MM this year, plus $8MM in 2008.  Some of this year’s salary is deferred without interest until 2010-19, making it even better.  I have to admit I liked the two-year $19MM pact when it was signed in November of 2006.  But the Cardinals did have the choice of simply exercising Edmonds’ $10MM option for ’07 instead of extending him through ’08.

Would Edmonds pass through waivers?  Probably.  He hasn’t shown that he’s able to stay healthy and find a rhythm at age 37.  While his salary for next year isn’t too bad, it still might be a waste of money.  Not that the Cardinals would ever help the Cubs, but an Edmonds acquisition would make some sense right now.   

Isringhausen Would Veto Any Trade

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Several teams have expressed interest in soon-to-be 35 year-old Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen.  However, as a 10-and-5 player, Izzy has earned the right to veto any trade.  He’s prepared to exercise that right.

According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Isringhausen told the Cardinals he would not waive his no-trade clause and wants to finish his career in St. Louis.  He said as much publicly, too.  300 career saves might be a goal; he’s at 269 now.

Isringhausen’s career was nearly left for dead in September of ’06, when he elected to have surgery for his degenerative hip condition.  He’s silenced that talk with a 1.45 ERA and 20 saves so far this year.  It would be absurd if the Cardinals didn’t exercise his $8MM option for ’08.  I could even see them renegotiating and extending as they did with Jim Edmonds (if they haven’t learned their lesson).

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