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Rays Exercise 2014 Club Options On Zobrist, Escobar

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The Rays have exercised their club options over utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist and shortstop Yunel Escobar, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. As Topkin notes, the club's more difficult option decision comes due tomorrow, when Tampa must act on David DeJesus.

Neither move comes as a surprise, given that the option amounts for Zobrist and Escobar ($7MM and $5MM, respectively) are modest compared to their 2013 production. Zobrist slashed .275/.354/.402, a step back from his offensive output over 2011-12. But with stellar defense and baserunning, he nevertheless managed a third straight 5+ fWAR campaign and remains one of baseball's best values and most adaptable players. Escobar put up an exactly league-average wRC mark, but that will play at short, particularly when combined with outstanding fielding. He figures also to provide surplus production going forward after putting up a redemptive 3.9 fWAR in his first year in Tampa.

The best news for the Rays is that the club has virtually identical club options for this pair next year, as well. (Zobrist's jumps in value by $500k, though his buyout also plummets.) Tampa will hope the decision is just as easy next time around.

Free Agent Profile: Fernando Rodney

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When Fernando Rodney signed a one-year, $2MM contract with the Rays that contained a club option for the 2013 season, many were surprised to see him receive a Major League deal. Rodney rebounded from an injury-plagued 2011 season that saw him walk more batters than he struck out to turn in the most dominant season (in terms of ERA) in Major League history in 2012. He'll hit the free agent market as one of the top relief arms available coming off a pair of big seasons in Tampa.

Strengths/Pros

Only one free agent reliever — Jesse Crain — posted a higher K/9 than Rodney's 11.1. Rodney whiffed 28.2 percent of the hitters he faced in 2013, a mark that can only be topped by Crain and Joe Nathan. Rodney-FernandoIn terms of pure velocity, there's no free agent pitcher among starters or relievers with at least 10 innings pitched that can top Rodney's 96.5 mph average fastball. As such, it's no surprise to see him tied for the second-best swinging-strike rate at 12.5 percent. In other words, Rodney flat out overpowers hitters.

The 2013 campaign marked the fifth consecutive season in which Rodney has posted a ground-ball rate north of 50 percent. His 50.6 clip ranks sixth among right-handed peers on the free agent market.

As noted in the intro, Rodney's 0.60 ERA in 2012 was the lowest ERA in baseball history for a relief pitcher. Predictably, there was some regression in 2013, resulting in a 3.38 ERA. ERA estimators FIP (2.46), xFIP (2.88) and SIERA (2.69) all still love Rodney, though. As a result, Rodney ranks seventh among all qualified relief pitchers from 2012-13 in fWAR at 3.6.

Rodney remains a fastball/change-up pitcher, but the combination has become more effective with age, as he's continually added to his velocity over the past several seasons. While many pitchers see their velocity decline as they get older, there are no such concerns with Rodney.

Dominant as he was, Rodney won't be receiving a qualifying offer from the cost-conscious Rays, so he won't require a draft pick to sign.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Rodney's strikeout numbers are typically sky-high, so too are his walk totals. Rodney shocked everyone by averaging just 1.8 walks per nine innings in 2012 (5.3 BB%), but his command woes returned in 2013. Rodney has averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings in his career (11.4 BB%), and he averaged 4.9 per nine innings in 2013 (12.4 BB%). This past season was a make-or-break year for his walk rate; had he kept it down, teams may have believed that he'd corrected the issue. As it turns out, 2012's walk rate just looks fluky.

Rodney will turn 37 next March, so while he's increasing his velocity and delivering the best innings of his career, one has to wonder when he will start to show his age. There's plenty of precedent for relievers enjoying success in their late 30s and even into their early 40s, but Rodney lacks the track record of a Joe Nathan or a Mariano Rivera — two recent examples of such success.

That lack of a track record is what makes evaluating Rodney truly difficult. Heading into 2012, Rodney had a 4.42 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 over his previous 266 2/3 innings in the Majors. He'd never been able to hold down a closer's gig for more than a year at a time, as evidenced by the fact that he's saved almost as many games in two seasons with the Rays (85) as he had in nine previous seasons combined (87). Which guy is Fernando Rodney? The erratic, often hittable setup man or the dominant relief ace that held opponents to a .186/.266/.259 batting line from 2012-13? That's the question that scouts and GMs will have to answer this winter.

Personal

Rodney and his wife, Helen, have four children ranging from eight months old to 12 years old, according to the Rays media guide. As noted by MLB.com's Bill Chastain, Rodney is popular among his teammates, with Joel Peralta among the most vocal about his desire for Rodney to return. Chastain also notes that Jose Lobaton would like to see the closer return as well.

Market

Peralta feels that Rodney would take a discount to remain with the Rays. Peralta says that he and Rodney are like brothers, and that Rodney is beloved in the clubhouse. That thinking directly contradicts a recent report by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times, who wrote last weekend that Rodney will explore the market.

Rodney's agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, will likely attempt to position his client as the next-best closer on the market after Nathan. They'll have a compelling point, as Rodney's 85 saves in 2012-13 are the most of any free agent, and his 1.91 ERA in that time is topped only by Crain and his balky shoulder. Unfortunately, it looks to be a buyers' market for relief pitchers, as Rodney will be joined by Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, Jose Veras and the recently released Chris Perez — each of whom saved at least 21 games this season. And that doesn't even count Brian Wilson, he of 171 career saves, who will be a free agent after re-establishing his value and announcing his health in a late-season cameo with the Dodgers.

Expected Contract

Rodney has transformed himself from a 2011-12 afterthought to a Top 50 free agent for the 2013-14 offseason. He's a candidate to secure a multiyear contract, even though competition among closer types will be fierce. As is the case with all relievers on this market, it will behoove Rodney to sign early in the offseason while his options are still plentiful.

I'm comfortable projecting the same two-year, $18MM contract for Rodney that I projected for Balfour earlier in the month. Ultimately, our predictions are going to be off on some of these relievers, as there are just too many closer types competing for a limited amount of jobs. Some will be left standing in January and be forced to settle for one-year deals or eighth-inning roles that won't pay as well. However, with no way of knowing which relievers will come off the board first, I'm sticking to the formula of predicting the maximum dollars they can earn if they sign early in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Moves: Peter Moylan, Freddy Guzman

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Here are today's minor transactions, with the most recent moves at the top of the page…

  • Right-hander Peter Moylan has elected to become a free agent, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  The Dodgers designated Moylan for assignment last week to create 40-man roster space for the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.  Moylan posted a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 relief innings for Los Angeles last season and was plagued by injuries in 2011-12, but the Aussie righty posted a 2.59 ERA in 260 2/3 IP out of the Braves bullpen from 2006-12.
  • The Rays outrighted Freddy Guzman to Triple-A Durham and off the Major League 40-man roster, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Tribune reports (Twitter link).  Guzman will become a minor league free agent five days after the end of the World Series.  Guzman appeared in one Major League game (his first since 2009) last season, stealing a base and scoring as a pinch-runner.  Guzman has spent most of the last three seasons in the Mexican League and he posted a .855 OPS in 450 PA with Ciudad del Carmen in 2013.
  • Now that Moylan is a free agent, the Red Sox Pedro Beato and the Padres' Colt Hynes and Tommy Layne are the only players remaining in DFA limbo, according to MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

AL East Links: Rays, Loney, Rodney, Reimold

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November will bring the eight-year anniversaries of the Rays' hirings of executive vice president Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times. With Jim Leyland's retirement, Friedman and Maddon are now the longest-tenured GM/manager duo in Major League Baseball. Topkin quotes Friedman: "Joe and I have a tremendous working relationship that has only strengthened over time. I think that the continuity throughout our organization provides at least a little of a competitive advantage." Here's more on the Rays and the rest of the AL East…

  • Within that same article, Topkin reports that there aren't likely to be any pre-emptive deals with impending free agents for the Rays. He lists James Loney and Fernando Rodney as two such free agents who would like to explore the free agent market. That goes against what teammate Joel Peralta said about Rodney a few weeks back; Peralta voiced his certainty that Rodney would take a discount to return to the Rays.
  • Nolan Reimold hopes to return to the Orioles in 2014, though he realizes that he's not a lock to be tendered a contract, the 30-year-old tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Reimold missed the majority of the season once again but says he's significantly further along in his rehab from neck surgery than he was in his injury rehab at this time last season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.2MM salary for Reimold if the O's do indeed tender him.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wonders how much of an impact Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM extension will have on the pitching market, specifically impending Orioles free agent Scott Feldman.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The spectre of a David Price trade hangs over the Rays' offseason as the club considers whether or not to make a franchise-altering deal.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

All signs point to David Price wearing a different uniform in 2014, so much so that even the left-hander himself is preparing for a trade.  Price is due for another raise in arbitration and for a team on a limited budget like Tampa Bay, the window may have closed on getting back to the World Series with Price in the rotation and pitching on a relatively inexpensive salary.  Two remaining years of control over one of the league's top pitchers is a valuable commodity, so the timing seems right for the Rays to move Price and once again reload with younger (and cheaper) future stars.

The good news for Rays fans is that the team has scored big in recent trades of star pitchers — Matt Garza to the Cubs in January 2011 and James Shields to the Royals last winter.  Those deals brought the likes of Wil Myers, Chris Archer, Sam Fuld, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, and it's likely that Price would command an even larger haul of prospects than either Garza or Shields. Teams such as the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Rangers and more have been cited as possible landing spots in a Price deal, with Texas in particular has been linked to Price for over a year given their deep minor league system.

If Price stays, then he remains the anchor of an impressive rotation that also includes Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Archer and Jeremy Hellickson.  Jeff Niemann could also be in the mix if he's healthy, though MLBTR's Tim Dierkes doesn't believe the oft-injured righty will be tendered a contract.  The Rays have Odorizzi, Alex Colome and Alex Torres as minor league starting depth.  If Price is dealt, the Rays could add rotation depth in the form of a low-cost veteran with upside, a la the Roberto Hernandez signing from last winter.

Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar are very likely to have their options picked up, so that will bring the Rays' payroll to a guaranteed $23.5MM for those two, Moore, Joel Peralta and Evan Longoria.  MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects the Rays will have to pay roughly $25.7MM to eight arbitration-eligible players (and maybe more if Niemann and/or Sam Fuld are tendered contracts), bringing the total to $49.2MM for 13 players.  Owner Stuart Sternberg has hinted that the team's continued attendance problems will impact the payroll, which stood at just under $62MM in 2013, so executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will again have to deliver on a tight budget.

The payroll crunch makes it unlikely that the Rays will re-sign more than one or perhaps two of their free agents, and even then those players would have to be willing to come back at a discount.  Fernando Rodney could be willing to take such a deal (if Peralta's claims are true) but it seems more like the Rays' M.O. to pursue another low-cost relief arm rather than pay extra to keep one of their own.  The Rays can afford to be flexible with their bullpen situation as internal options like Peralta, Jake McGee or Wesley Wright could also step up to close games or be part of a committee.  MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts that Jesse Crain can find a one-year, $3.5MM deal in free agency — that's a bit pricey for the Rays, but if they liked Crain enough to acquire him last July even when he was injured, re-signing him isn't out of the question. 

The Rays are mostly set around the diamond with Longoria at third, Escobar at short, Zobrist at second, Myers in right and Desmond Jennings in center.  Jose Lobaton was a walkoff hero in Game Three of the ALDS and the switch-hitting catcher posted a decent .736 OPS against righty pitching during the regular season.  The Rays would be fine with Lobaton and a veteran backup (maybe a re-signed Jose Molina) handling the duties behind the plate, though they'll keep an eye out to see if a catching upgrade could be found.

David DeJesus' $6.5MM option seems too expensive to be picked up, leaving Tampa Bay with a hole in left field to go along with question marks at DH and first base.  The left-handed hitting Matt Joyce could combine with the right-handed hitting Guyer for a solid platoon in left.  Delmon Young wants to return and could be in the LF/DH platoon mix as well, as he could be re-signed at a limited price.

The Rays have struck gold with two of their three first base reclamation projects over the last three seasons, as James Loney and Casey Kotchman both performed above expectations while Carlos Pena struggled in 2012.  Tampa Bay will again look to score with a veteran with a good pedigree and perhaps is in need of a change in scenery.  Perhaps a slugger like Mark Reynolds could regain his stroke while only playing as part of a platoon, or a utilityman like Jeff Baker would be even more useful since he could back up multiple positions and provide a big bat against southpaws.

Though the Rays have these three key power positions up in the air, LF/1B/DH and even catcher or the rotation could all be addressed in a Price trade.  In an ideal world for Tampa Bay, they'd be able to sign Price to a multiyear extension — in the realistic/ideal world, the club would be able to free up $13MM in payroll space while moving Price for at least one or two players like Myers, a star prospect who quickly broke out in the majors and looks to be a lineup stalwart for years to come.

It could be argued that since the return on the Price trade will shape the rest of Tampa Bay's winter plans, such a deal could happen relatively early in the offseason, akin to how Shields was swapped just after the Winter Meetings in early December 2012.  Friedman isn't going to rush to make a move, however, since his organization's margin for error is so thin.  A contender may be looking to acquire Price so they can challenge for a World Series in 2014 and 2015; Friedman needs the return on the Price trade to keep the Rays afloat for championship runs for the rest of the decade.

Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rays are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Price projects to have the third-largest salary of any arbitration eligible player, and he'll go to arbitration again after the 2014 season.  He missed over a month with triceps tightness this year and came back much improved, posting a 2.53 ERA in his final 18 starts with a K/BB ratio near eight.  The 28-year-old is far superior to any free agent starter and one of the best in baseball.  He told reporters on an October conference call he expects to be traded this winter, perhaps due to his rising salary, diminishing team control, and the precedent set by the Rays with James Shields and Matt Garza.  Indeed, a blockbuster deal this winter seems likely, and if Price lands with a new team, that club will surely have interest in locking him up barring further health complications.  I anticipate something in the range of five years and $125MM, if the contract includes his final arbitration year.  Otherwise Price could wait, re-establish his health in 2014, and use Clayton Kershaw's next contract to leap past the $135-140MM in new money guaranteed to Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

The rest of the Rays' arbitration class is more pedestrian.  Joyce continued to serve as a useful platoon outfielder.  Rodriguez, Lobaton, and Fuld held down lesser reserve roles, with Fuld facing at least some threat of a non-tender despite another low salary projection.

Starters Hellickson and Niemann project for similar salaries.  Despite improved peripheral stats, Hellickson's third season was his worst in terms of ERA, with a 5.17 mark.  The Rays sent him to the minors for a brief period toward the end of the season, which was used as a break since the organization never intended to have him pitch at a lower level.  Hellickson is likely penciled into next year's rotation, especially if Price is on the move.  Niemann has missed most of the last two seasons, and had shoulder surgery in April this year.  Another $3MM guarantee would be risky, so a non-tender seems likely.

Wright, McGee, and Ramos are up for arbitration in the bullpen, and all seem in good standing after decent seasons.

Assuming the Rays tender contracts to Price, Joyce, Hellickson, Wright, Rodriguez, McGee, Lobaton, and Ramos, they're looking at an estimated $25.7MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Cubs, Backman, Leyland

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Tony La Russa is available, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears that the Cubs haven't reached out to the former Cardinals skipper.  Meanwhile, La Russa is telling his friends that he'd be more intereted in a front office role if he were to jump back in.  Here's the latest managerial and coaching news from around baseball..

  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez says that his interview with the Cubs for their vacant managerial position went "really well," writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  In addition to the standard topics, Martinez said they talked about lineup construction and game preparation and watched some in-game video sequences to go over what moves he would make.  The Cubs have also interviewed Padres bench coach Rick Renteria, former Indians and Nats manager Manny Acta, and former D-backs manager A.J. Hinch.
  • Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo is also in the mix for the Cubs' gig, but he says that he's not thinking about it at this time, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  At the same time, he was open about his desire to manage a big league team and spoke fondly of Theo Epstein.
  • Wally Backman is expected to return as the Mets' Triple-A manager next season, a team insider told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.  The Mets have not been asked by any other club for permission to speak with Backman about a managerial opening.
  • When asked about whether Jim Leyland will return in 2014, GM Dave Dombrowski said that now is "not the time," tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

AL East Notes: Anderson, Davis, A-Rod, Guerrieri

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The Red Sox can return to the World Series for the third time in the last 10 seasons if they beat the Tigers tomorrow or in a potential Game Seven on Sunday.  The other four AL East teams will be working hard this offseason to match (or better) Boston's 2013 success, so here's the latest from around the division…

  • The Athletics could exercise Brett Anderson's $8MM option for 2014 and then trade him to one of a few teams who are interested, with the Blue Jays being specifically cited, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Toronto scouted Anderson late last season and have been interested in the southpaw for the last two years.  Anderson has appeared in just 54 games over the last four seasons due to several injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, so it would be a risky move for the injury-plagued Jays to acquire another pitcher with a poor health history.
  • Rajai Davis is looking forward to his first free agent experience, the outfielder tells MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm.  Davis is looking for an everyday job and has historically struggled against right-handed pitching, which Chisholm notes makes it unlikely that the Blue Jays will re-sign him.
  • Both Major League Baseball and Alex Rodriguez's camp have admitted to paying to obtain documents from the Biogenesis clinic, sources familiar to the Rodriguez appeal hearing tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
  • Rays right-hander Taylor Guerrieri has been suspended for 50 games for a PED violation, the league announced Friday.  Guerrieri twice tested positive for a "drug of abuse" that is believed to be marijuana, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Guerrieri was the 24th overall pick of the 2011 draft and was considered one of the top prospects in baseball by MLB.com (44th-best), ESPN's Keith Law (#47) and Baseball America (#64) in preseason rankings.  The 20-year-old won't miss any game action due to the suspension since he was already slated to miss most of the 2014 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • In AL East news from earlier today, the Yankees are reportedly planning to spend $300MM on new contracts this offseason while the Red Sox have agreed to sign Cuban right-hander Dalier Hinojosa to a minor league deal.

AL West Notes: Gray, Mariners, Luhnow, Ryan

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Sonny Gray underwent surgery on his left thumb today and is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training, the Athletics announced via their Twitter feed.  Gray said he would still be pitching if Oakland was in the ALCS, despite the tear in his thumb's UCL that he suffered on a Prince Fielder line drive in Game Five of the ALDS.  The A's obviously want Gray fit for 2014 given how impressive the right-hander looked in his rookie season — Gray posted a 2.67 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 3.35 K/BB over 12 regular season games (10 starts) and then posted a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings in two postseason starts.

Here's the latest from around the AL West…

  • Eric Wedge and the Mariners have different accounts of why exactly they parted ways, but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman notes it was clear that a change was necessary at manager given the differences between the two sides. 
  • Also in the piece, Heyman reports that the Mariners have Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo on their list of possible manager candidates.
  • The Mariners aren't likely to make a play for David Price this offseason, MLB.com's Greg Johns writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Seattle has been linked to Price in at least one rumor but Johns thinks if the M's are going to deal prospects for any major star, it will be for a big hitter.
  • Reid Ryan, the Astros' president of business operations and Nolan Ryan's son, tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he hasn't spoken to his father about joining the 'Stros now that the elder Ryan has stepped down as the Rangers' CEO.  Astros owner Jim Crane would be open to Ryan taking on a role with the team, saying "We have Reid here, and [Nolan] is certainly welcome as a family member to hang out with us. I like Nolan, and at some point, if Nolan wanted to do something, we're all ears."
  • In AL West news from earlier today on MLBTR, you can check out Charlie Wilmoth's Offseason Outlook entry on the Rangers, a collection of Rangers notes, and Steve Adams' free agent profile of A's closer Grant Balfour.

Minor Moves: Rays, Cubs, Purcey, Okajima

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves here..

  • Infielder Ryan Roberts, 1B/OF Shelley Duncan, outfielder Jason Bourgeois and right-hander J.D. Martin have all elected to become free agents, MLBDailyDish.com's Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter links).  All four players were outrighted off the Rays' roster earlier this season.
  • Also from Cotillo (Twitter links), catcher J.C. Boscan and outfielder Darnell McDonald have elected to become free agents.  Both players were outrighted off the Cubs' 40-man roster last week.
  • The White Sox announced they have outrighted David Purcey to Triple-A Charlotte. Purcey, 31, posted a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 6.0 BB/9 in 24 relief appearances. The club's 40-man roster is now at 36.  Purcey was one of Chicago's arbitration eligible players this winter.
  • Left-hander Hideki Okajima and right-hander Chris Resop have elected free agency from the Athletics, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (Twitter link).  Okajima, 38 in December, pitched in five big league games for the A's but spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A where he posted a 4.22 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 37 appearances.  Resop, 31 in November, also spent the lion's share of the year in Triple-A and had a 6.81 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
  • Reds right-hander Jose Arredondo, Angels right-hander Robert Coello, and Marlins third baseman Gil Velazquez have elected free agency under Article XX(D), according to Eddy (via Twitter).  Arredondo struggled at the Triple-A level in 2013, posting a 5.87 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9.  Coello made 16 big league relief appearances in 2013 and put up a 3.71 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
  • At Baseball America, Eddy has the full list of the past week's minor league transactions.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

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