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Olney On Price, Relievers, Colon, Salaries, Red Sox

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David Price's trade value may never be higher than it is right now, ESPN's Buster Olney argues, so the Rays may have to quell their competitive instincts and deal the ace southpaw even if they "aren't completely sold" on offers they receive before the year is out.  Olney covers several other topics in his Insider-only piece, such as how quality relievers such as Joe Smith or J.P. Howell could command three-year contracts worth $12MM-$18MM this winter.  Here's more from Olney…

  • Despite Bartolo Colon's good numbers in 2013, Olney says (in a video blog) that there isn't a strong market for his services since executives simply don't know what to expect from the soft-tossing 40-year-old.  Olney thinks Colon will find a one-year, $10MM-$12MM deal for 2014, similar to what MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts.  Despite the mutual interest between Colon and the Athletics, however, Olney predicts Colon will sign with a big-market team.  
  • Some agents believe there will be "a notable spike in salaries this winter," Olney tweets.
  • In an appearance on WEEI Radio's Mut & Merloni Show on Wednesday (WEEI.com's Jackson Alexander has a partial transcript), Olney said that if the Red Sox make Brian McCann a competitive offer, McCann would consider taking slightly less money since he's a good fit in their clubhouse atmosphere.
  • Also from the radio interview, Olney thinks "the smart play" for Stephen Drew would be to accept Boston's $14.1MM qualifying offer.  I'm not sure I agree with Olney, as while Drew couldn't find a $14.1MM average annual salary on the open market, he'd surely find a multiyear contract.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes thinks Drew can find a four-year, $48MM deal this winter.
  • Olney also thinks the Mariners will try "to change the conversation" about their franchise by making a major offer to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Free Agent Profile: James Loney

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James Loney was an afterthought in the August 2012 blockbuster trade that reshaped the Red Sox and Dodgers, with Boston sending Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to Los Angeles.  Loney joined various Dodgers prospects coming to the Red Sox, and soon after became a free agent for the first time.  He found just a $2MM guarantee with the bargain-shopping Rays, and made good by rediscovering his hitting stroke and playing his usual strong defense at first base.

USATSI_7366093

Strengths/Pros

Loney's line drive swing produced a .299 batting average this year, which ranked 13th in the American League.  His solid .285 career batting average is owed largely to his high contact rate.  He struck out just 12.9% of the time this year, a mark bested by only 17 AL players.  Loney's 29.8% line drive rate this year topped all of MLB.

Loney's strong batting average helped him to a .348 on-base percentage this year, topping the typical first baseman's .332 mark.  Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average.  Loney's 118 figure this year means he was 18% better than the league average hitter.  Among free agents with at least 400 plate appearances, Loney's wRC+ ranked ninth among all free agents, beating out players such as Kendrys Morales, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Morneau.  Loney has shown he can excel in baseball card numbers as well, averaging 89 RBI per year from 2008-10.

While Loney's sweet swing had him batting fifth in the Rays' lineup for much of the year, his calling card is his defense at first base.  He was a Gold Glove finalist this year, and has continually been sought out for his defense.  Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman explained Loney's positives in August to MLB.com's Bill Chastain, saying, "James has been one of the better defensive first basemen in the game for a while, and fit right in with our emphasis on defense.  But he's also demonstrated good natural hitting ability, especially against right-handers, and a contact bat that adds a different dimension to our lineup. We felt that with everything he brings to the table, he had a real chance to thrive in our environment."

Durability is another strong suit for Loney — he's never been on the disabled list in a career that has spanned eight seasons.  Aside from his tumultuous 2012, Loney has averaged 159 games per season since 2008.

Loney has youth on his side, as he doesn't turn 30 until May.  And unlike free agent first basemen Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, Loney did not receive a qualifying offer and is not tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Loney is underpowered for a first baseman, a drawback for those who believe the offensive standard should be higher at his position.  He's continually posted isolated power marks around .130, while the average first baseman was at .176 this year.  The typical first baseman can hit at least 20 home runs, while Loney is generally good for 13 or so.  Loney can still add value as a hitter, but he won't appeal to teams seeking power in free agency.

Loney hit .299/.339/.390 against left-handed pitching in 166 plate appearances this year, providing hope that he will not need to be platooned.  But from 2010-12, Loney was terrible against southpaws, hitting .218/.256/.299 in 425 plate appearances.

Loney had a rough 2012 in general, hitting .249/.293/.336 in 465 plate appearances.  Overall, his play was below replacement level.  Loney has only been worth two-plus wins above replacement twice in his career, in 2011 and '13.  Otherwise, he's often been around replacement level.  Though he drove in a good amount of runs from 2008-10, Loney was still just a league average offensive player, and his defense generally doesn't make up for that.  The Rays seemingly rescued Casey Kotchman's career in 2011, but he was terrible in the season that followed.  Fair or not, some teams might connect the two first basemen and wonder if Loney can maintain success outside of Tampa Bay.

Personal

James' parents, Ann and Marion, met when both were basketball players at SUNY Oswego.  James was born in Houston and still lives in Texas with his wife Nadia and their son, born this year.  James told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick in 2008 he had a hard time deciding whether to root for the Astros or Braves as a kid.  When the Dodgers drafted Loney out of high school in the first round in 2002, most teams viewed him as a pitcher, wrote Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times in 2011.

Loney is known as a laid-back player.  "Loney is so calm that sometimes you wonder if there's a pulse," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  "I think he's the most unaffected guy I know," Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Hernandez in 2009.  Former teammate Randy Wolf used the word "spacey," and former manager Joe Torre agreed.  Giants first baseman Brandon Belt may own the nickname "Baby Giraffe," but Wolf used that term to describe Loney's awkwardness in the '09 article, and the first baseman's nickname was "Geoffrey" after the Toys R Us giraffe. 

Market

Loney changed agencies around the opening of free agency, jumping from CAA to The Legacy Agency.  Without knowing the details, the agency change prior to the biggest payday of Loney's career suggests dissatisfaction with his previous contract.

Several teams may be in the market for a first baseman this winter, assuming the Rays don't retain Loney.  The Brewers, Pirates, Twins, and Rockies don't have clear plans at first base, though the Rockies seem to be seeking right-handed power.  The Rangers could be an option if they move on from Mitch Moreland and find bigger bats elsewhere.  As far as starting first basemen, Loney's competition on the free agent market consists of Mike Napoli, Corey Hart, and Justin Morneau, plus maybe Kendrys Morales, Paul Konerko, Mark Reynolds, and Kevin Youkilis.

Expected Contract

I expect Loney's agent to set out with a three-year deal in mind, since he's a relatively young player and the average annual value on the contract won't be staggering.  Ultimately, I think he'll land a two-year, $16MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Teams Showing Early Interest In Grant Balfour

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Grant Balfour is expected to sign with a new team as a free agent this offseason after three excellent years with the A's — two of which came as the team's closer. According to the latest from Susan Slusser at the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees, Tigers, Rockies, Rays and Angels have all expressed interest in the hard-throwing Aussie.

Balfour, 36 in December, saved 62 games for the A's over the past two seasons as their primary ninth-inning option and has a sparkling 2.47 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 254 2/3 innings dating back to 2010. It's a buyer's market for closers this offseason, with Balfour, Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Perez, Jose Veras, Edward Mujica and Kevin Gregg among the free agents who saved at least 20 games this past season. Brian Wilson, who returned as a dominant setup man, figures to garner interest for ninth inning jobs as well.

Interest between the Tigers and Balfour will turn a few heads due to the fact that Balfour's signature shouting on the mound didn't sit well with Victor Martinez in the ALDS, leading to a benches-clearing confrontation. Still the Tigers figure to add at least one high-profile arm this winter after opening last season with no set closer and experiencing ugly results from a carousel of relievers until Benoit solidified the job.

Rays, DeJesus Agree To Two-Year Deal

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WEDNESDAY: Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune provides the breakdown of the new contract (on Twitter). DeJesus will be paid $4.25MM in 2014 and $5MM in 2015. The club option is valued at $5MM with a $1MM buyout. Topkin also tweets that DeJesus received a $250K signing bonus.

TUESDAY, 7:18pm: DeJesus' deal is worth $10.5MM over the first two seasons, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  Of course, the Rays also hold an option on the ACES client's third year.

MONDAY, 8:40am: The Rays and David DeJesus have agreed to a new two-year contract that will cover the 2014-15 seasons and include a club option for 2016, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).  DeJesus-David-Rays

DeJesus, 34 in December, took an interesting path to the Rays. Originally signed to a two-year, $10MM contract with the Cubs, he was claimed off waivers in August by the Nationals this summer. However, GM Mike Rizzo instantly put DeJesus back on waivers, and the Rays claimed him two days later. The Nationals ultimately acquired lefty Matthew Spann from the Rays in exchange for DeJesus, which appears to have been Rizzo's plan all along (to acquire a prospect — not Spann specifically).

DeJesus batted .260/.328/.413 in 35 games (117 plate appearances) with the Rays, adding three more hits in the playoffs as the Rays advanced to the ALDS — the first postseason experience of DeJesus' career. Overall on the season, DeJesus slashed .251/.327/.402 and played solid defense in all three outfield positions, per UZR (DRS didn't like his work in center, pegging him at -6 runs).

Rays manager Joe Maddon is no stranger to using platoons to his advantage, and he'll have to do that to maximize DeJesus' value. Though he could once handle his own against left-handed pitching, DeJesus is batting a ghastly .162/.248/.207 against southpaws dating back to 2011, signaling that he's a clear platoon bat at this stage of his career. The flipside of that is that he's done very well against right-handed pitchers, slashing .274/.356/.441 in 1,068 plate appearances.

Extending DeJesus calls into question Matt Joyce's future with the Rays, in my mind. The two are very similar players in the sense that each hits right-handed pitching well but must be platooned against left-handers. Joyce appears to be a trade candidate or non-tender candidate now (he's projected to earn $3.7MM). Perhaps Rays GM Andrew Friedman decided that if he's going to carry a platoon outfielder, he wants him to be a strong defender. Joyce's defensive metrics have slipped in right field in recent seasons, and he doesn't come with DeJesus' versatility, as he's played just 32 innings in center field in his Major League career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenthal On Nats, Scherzer, Phillies, Price, Rangers

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The Nationals are looking to add an "elite" starting pitcher via trade, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and they're in luck, as both Max Scherzer and David Price have been rumored to be available this winter. Rosenthal explains his reasons behind believing that Scherzer could be a better fit, highlighted by the fact that Nats GM Mike Rizzo drafte Scherzer in the first round when he was the Diamondbacks' scouting director. Rosenthal's sources maintain that the Tigers aren't shopping Scherzer at this point but rather just listening to offers. Here's more from a jam-packed column from Rosenthal…

  • The Phillies have kicked around the idea of trading for Price, but it's unlikely to happen. The Phils would likely have to include top prospect Jesse Biddle in a potential package and perhaps Domonic Brown as well. Also, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recognizes that his club has multiple needs and that he will need to make multiple additions rather than going "all-in" on one big splash like Price or free agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
  • While many will argue that Tim Lincecum's deal doesn't impact the free agent markte for starting pitchers because it was the Giants paying to keep one of their own, Rosenthal points out that other starters and their agents will argue the direct opposite — "that the Lincecum contract was merely the outgrowth of supply-and-demand economics." In particular, he feels that it hurts the Pirates in their quest to retain A.J. Burnett. Rosenthal wonders how the Bucs can possibly retain Burnett after Lincecum got $17.5MM per year when they didn't even want to offer Burnett a $14.1MM qualifying offer.
  • The Rangers are once again pondering their infield logjam and whether or not to trade one of Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler. Kinsler could also be moved to first, though it may be less appealing that moving Kinsler and his salary ($57MM through 2017). Kinsler's contract makes him the easier of the two to trade. Figuring out the middle infield and securing some salary relief could be the key to the Rangers' offseason, he adds.
  • The Mariners consider right-handed pop their biggest need, and Rosenthal wonders if they'll take a second run at Mike Napoli, who they tried to land last offseason.

Rays Decline Juan Carlos Oviedo’s Option

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The Rays have declined Juan Carlos Oviedo's $2MM 2014 option, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. They will instead pay a $30K buyout.

The former Marlins closer did not pitch at all in 2013, as he had Tommy John surgery during the 2012 season. The Rays purchased his contract anyway in March, then placed him on the 60-day DL. Oviedo has a 4.34 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in seven big-league seasons.

East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Orioles, Rays

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The Phillies' possible offseason targets include Nelson Cruz and Carlos Beltran, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman notes. Seidman suggests that signing Cruz to a two-year deal for $30MM might make sense. He notes that, while the Phillies shouldn't be trying to get older at this stage, and with $120MM already committed to other players in 2014, they won't have a ton of money to spend. A power-hitting outfielder appears to be the Phillies' greatest short-term need, however. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson says it's "safe to say" the loss of a draft pick won't prevent them from signing a free agent who has received a qualifying offer, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. The Mets' first-round pick in next year's draft, the tenth overall, is protected. If they sign a free agent, they could lose their second-round pick, but not their first.
  • Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com wonders if the Orioles can afford to extend both Chris Davis and Matt Wieters without stretching themseles too thin. Dubroff notes that if Wieters were a free agent this year, he’d probably more coveted than Atlanta’s Brian McCann, who is ranked as the fourth-best free agent available by Tim Dierkes.
  • The Rays' biggest obstacle in finding a deal for ace David Price might be their own sky-high expectation for a return, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Tampa Bay will want to beat out their return for James Shields by a vast margin, but they may have to accept a little less than what they have in mind.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Rays Exercise Club Option On David DeJesus, Discussing Extension

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The Rays have exercised the club's $6.5MM option on outfielder David DeJesus, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. (With a $1.5MM buyout, this was effectively a $5MM decision.) Meanwhile, the sides are also discussing a multi-year extension, Topkin further tweets.

This news rates as at least a mild surprise, largely due to Tampa's historically lean payroll, which has landed just over $60MM at opening day the last two years. Looking ahead, the Rays owe $23.6MM to five players in 2014, and could spend right around $30MM on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk was among those who expected the option to be too pricey for GM Andrew Friedman to exercise it. Of course, if ace David Price finds a new home, his projected $13.1MM salary would open a lot of room.

DeJesus, who turns 34 in December, has been a solid-if-unspectacular contributor for some time now. He was exactly league average at the plate in terms of OPS last year, and he's never posted an OPS+ of under 91 or over 118 in a full season of action. (He played in just 91 games in 2010, when he managed a 127 OPS+ for the Royals.) Of course, the lefty has historically struggled against southpaws, with a .252/.321/.342 slash line that is dwarfed by his .289/.365/.447 line against righties. Even worse, that split has significantly worsened over the course of his career. Formerly just slightly below average against lefties, DeJesus has put up three straight wRC+ marks of 32 or lower when facing same-armed hurlers. DeJesus has divided his time about evenly between center field and the corner outfield, and is generally viewed as acceptable at the former and good at the latter.

The $6.5MM that DeJesus will earn next year becomes the largest annual payroll he's pulled down. He joined Tampa through the August non-revocable waiver trade market, after spending much of the season with the Cubs and then getting three at-bats with the Nationals on his way south.

Cafardo On Free Agency, Price, Nathan, Lackey

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Free agents are not allowed to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs until 11:01 pm (CT) Monday, but agent Scott Boras says his phone was ringing off the hook regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew within hours of the Red Sox winning the World Series, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees will be the most interesting team during free agency, according to Cafardo, but will be hamstrung until a decision is made on Alex Rodriguez's appeal. Cafardo also lists the Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers as active participants in the free agent market. In other tidbits from his Sunday Baseball Notes column:

AL East Links: Price, Lester, Papi, Orioles

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Timing will be the trickiest issue of the offseason for Rays, GM Andrew Friedman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Even if Friedman has an early opportunity to address first base (e.g. re-signing James Loney) or left field, he will have to keep the possibility of a David Price trade in the back of his mind. Acting too quickly to fill either hole could cause the team to miss out on a superior, more permanent option at the position that could be filled in a potential Price trade. Says Friedman: "We have to utilize all the information we have accumulated to that point to make the best decision possible while also appreciating the trickle-down effect of each move." Here's more from the AL East…

  • Jon Lester told reporters, including WEEI.com's Alex Speier, that he's excited to be returning to the Red Sox for another year after having his option picked up but hopes that he can work out a long-term deal with the team. Lester is currently more focused on celebrating Boston's 2013 World Series victory, but said "Hopefully [next year is] not the only one and we can be here for a long time."
  • David Ortiz is still producing at a virtually ageless clip, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald in arguing that the Red Sox should extend their DH. Big Papi is signed through 2014, but his potent bat and status as face of the franchise should earn him a lengthier guarantee, opines Silverman.
  • The Orioles must decide if they wish to protect left-handers Chris Jones and Tim Berry as well as catcher Michael Ohman from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly also points out the potential fit between the O's and Mark Ellis, should Brian Roberts not be re-signed. There's still some mutual interest between Baltimore and Roberts, Connolly reports.
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