NL West Notes: Giants, Alexander, Dodgers, Jay, D-backs
Giants general manager Bobby Evans joined Jim Bowden and Mike Ferrin on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today (Twitter link, with audio). Evans sidestepped some questions about potential interest in Bryce Harper as a free agent — “Our focus right now is on getting him out … we’ll certainly be aggressive and appropriate with our interest.” — but he did more broadly discuss the organization’s perennial “win-now” philosophy. At a time when more and more teams are pursuing aggressive tear-downs, Evans stated that it’d be a “big adjustment” to ever even consider embarking on a rebuild.
“We want to compete to win every year,” Evans says of his Giants. “That’s our goal. That’s our plan. You get bumps in the road — problems, challenges at times — but I think it’s challenging no matter which route you take. I think when you have such a strong core, with [Brandon] Crawford, [Brandon] Belt, [Buster] Posey, [Johnny] Cueto, [Madison] Bumgarner — it makes it a lot easier to choose to compete. … Building a [minor league] system has never been our ultimate goal. Our ultimate goal is to have success at the big league level, which a strong system helps with, but it doesn’t solve.”
More from the division…
- The Dodgers recently adopted the Rays’ strategy of using an “opener” — that is, starting a reliever for a few outs before based on matchups — and in an interesting interview, bullpen coach Mark Prior chatted with Fangraphs’ Travis Sawchik to discuss how that came about. Left-handed reliever Scott Alexander had taken note of Sergio Romo‘s run in that role with Tampa Bay and approached Prior to simply express that he’d be open to it if ever needed. Prior took it to the coaching staff and, not long after, the Dodgers felt circumstances dictated experimenting with the notion. “He’s a ground-ball pitcher, and we’re in Colorado,” said Prior. “…It just so happened that we needed someone that day, and given Colorado’s lineup with the lefties at the top, it made sense to get him through the fourth or fifth hitter and then go to someone else.”
- Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen spoke with reporters following his team’s surprisingly early acquisition of Jon Jay to explain some of the thinking that went into the move (links via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). “With the way the division is shaping up, where every day matters more and more, we just felt like this was the right thing to do at the time,” said Hazen, who is currently without both A.J. Pollock and Steven Souza. Hazen explained that the D-backs pursued Jay this offseason as well and praised his strong start to the year as well as his outfield versatility. The GM acknowledged that the move had some logjam potential down the line but declined to delve into any specifics as to how that’d be addressed. It’s a purely hypothetical scenario right now anyhow, as neither Souza nor Pollock appears to be on the verge of returning.
Mets Claim P.J. Conlon From Dodgers, Designate Phillip Evans
The Mets have re-claimed left-hander P.J. Conlon off waivers from the Dodgers and designated infielder Phillip Evans for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the team announced to reporters following this afternoon’s game (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Conlon has been optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas.
Conlon’s time with the Dodgers, clearly, will prove to be abbreviated. Los Angeles only claimed him off waivers from the Mets last week, and the southpaw had yet to even pitch in a game with his new organization before being placed back on waivers. It’s nothing new for the Dodgers to claim a player and then try to run him through waivers themselves as a means of keeping him in the organization without committing a 40-man roster spot. It’s a move they’ve had a fair amount of success with in past seasons, though the Mets clearly didn’t see fit to let Conlon get away and seized the opportunity to reclaim the depth they lost last week.
Conlon, 24, allowed seven earned runs in his first two big league starts with the Mets this season, spanning just 5 2/3 innings. His struggles weren’t contained to the MLB level, either, as he posted a whopping 6.58 ERA in 39 2/3 innings spanning eight starts with Vegas this year. However, Conlon possesses solid numbers up through the the Double-A level and turned in promising K/BB numbers in Triple-A this year even while struggling with his bottom-line run prevention numbers. He’ll now return to the organization that originally drafted him and continue on as a depth piece.
As for the 25-year-old Evans, this’ll be the second time he’s been designated for assignment by the Mets in the past calendar year. He’s just 1-for-9 on the young season but hit .303/.395/.364 in a tiny sample of 38 plate appearances in the Majors last year. Evans is a career .273/.337/.445 hitter in 671 PAs at the Triple-A level and has experience at every position other than center field, first base and catcher. If he clears waivers, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, given that he was outrighted the last time he was designated by the Mets.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasmani Grandal
When Austin Barnes overtook Yasmani Grandal late last year, it seemed the latter was a potential offseason trade piece for the Dodgers. Despite quality production over his tenure in Los Angeles, after all, he took just 11 plate appearances during the team’s postseason run. Instead, the Dodgers held onto Grandal in his final season of team control.
Now, more than a third of the way through the 2018 season, Grandal again seems like one of the game’s best backstops. He’s commanding the lion’s share of the time behind the plate, helping the club weather some devastating injuries and setting himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market. We’ll use this post to take a closer look at his free agent stock.
Grandal is among the highest-rated catchers this season by measure of fWAR, with 1.3 wins tallied to this point. He’s slashing a productive .246/.346/.451 through 205 plate appearances, with nine home runs and an appealing combination of a 12.2% walk rate and 22.0% strikeout rate. Statcast likes his batted-ball profile, crediting him with a .362 xwOBA that exceeds the .343 wOBA he has produced.
If anything, though, that WAR metric likely understates Grandal’s value, because it doesn’t account for his framing prowess. Baseball Prospectus’s measure, WARP, credits Grandal with 2.0 wins to date this year. But even that may undersell the backstop. He has drawn only slightly above-average framing marks from BPro this year, while StatCorner continues to grade Grandal as the best in the business. That was a shared assessment of both outlets over the past several years. And by measure of WORP, Grandal has contributed a whopping 17.2 wins over his first three years in L.A.
Teams will make their own fine-tuned assessments of defensive value, weighing considerations — pitch calling, pitcher management, etc. — that are all but impossible to assess from the outside. But everything in the data suggests that Grandal is a top-quality catcher. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a switch-hitter who has historically been best against right-handed pitching but still reaches base at a quality clip against southpaws. Grandal is still 29 years of age, too, and has been plenty durable to this point in his career.
So, how might that play in free agency? The catching market is something of its own beast, due in no small part to the fact that many of the best receivers have reached extensions before reaching free agency. Players such as Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy, Francisco Cervelli, Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yan Gomes have all signed away their prime years recently (or in the not-so-distant past), without testing the open market.
When premium backstops do hit free agency, they certainly can be paid. Brian McCann ($85MM) and Russell Martin ($82MM) have demonstrated that recently with high-dollar, five-year deals. Of course, the biggest contracts have still come between backstops and their existing teams. Joe Mauer inked his $184MM deal with the Twins when he was still catching, of course. And Mike Piazza worked out his massive deal with the Mets before technically becoming a free agent.
Clearly, Grandal isn’t in the rarefied air of Mauer, Piazza, and Posey. But is there an argument to be made that he ought to be able to approach McCann and Martin levels of pay over a five-year term? Grandal is on par with McCann in terms of age (both entering age-30 seasons as free agents) and a fair bit younger than was Martin. And though Grandal has not reached the heights offensively that McCann did at times as a young player, there’s a case to be made that his bat is roughly as appealing at equivalent stages. In the three years prior to his deal with the Yanks, McCann compiled a composite 113 OPS+, while Grandal presently sits at 111 since joining the Dodgers. Martin turned in a 105 OPS+ in the three seasons immediately preceding his trip onto the open market.
Whether Grandal will have a case for anything approaching that level of pay isn’t yet clear, but will surely depend upon still-unknown factors including how he performs the rest of the way and precisely how the demand side shapes up. It’s worth remembering that the Martin contract came in a fair bit higher than expected, when the Jays decided to add another guaranteed season. We’re also missing potentially relevant intermediate market markers, since several of the more anticipated possible recent free-agent cases have not been tested. Cervelli re-upped with the Bucs, Lucroy and Matt Wieters struggled in platform years, and Wilson Ramos was injured just before reaching free agency. At a minimum, though, Grandal seems clearly to be trending towards a contract that includes at least four guaranteed seasons and an annual salary in the $12MM to $16MM range. Of course, that also suggests he’s quite likely to receive a qualifying offer, which could dent his market somewhat.
So long as he can sustain something like his current output for the remainder of the season — which certainly seems reasonable given his track record — Grandal could represent an interesting test case for the market’s current valuation of catchers. It’ll be particularly interesting to see how things turn out given the presence of other useful catchers (including Ramos and the increasingly interesting Tyler Flowers) on the 2018-19 market and the fact that there’s now a widespread appreciation of the value of framing. With plenty of teams likely in need of new backstops, the catching market ought to serve as a quality undercard to the premium class of free agents.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL Notes: Nova, Hellickson, Murphy, Kemp
Pirates righty Ivan Nova seems reasonably close to a return, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. He received good reports after throwing a pair of simulated innings, suggesting that his sprained ring finger won’t keep him out very long. Obviously the club will wait to see how he responds before moving things forward, but it seems reasonable to think that Nova could make it back in relatively short order given that he last pitched on May 24th. The Bucs would certainly like not only for Nova to return, but also for him to turn things around on the bump. He carries a 4.96 ERA through 61 2/3 frames, though his peripherals have been in his typical range and suggest he has been a bit unfortunate.
Here are some more recent notes from the National League:
- The Nationals placed righty Jeremy Hellickson on the 10-day DL with a hamstring strain, but indications are that it’s minor, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. It’s not even clear that the Nats will need to find a fill-in starter, as they won’t need an extra rotation piece for a decent stretch. The DL placement, then, will actually leave the team with some added roster flexibility for the time being. Of course, it’d be preferable if there wasn’t an injury issue at all. Hellickson has been a gem of a minor-league signing thus far for D.C., turning in 43 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball over nine starts.
- In a health matter of equal or greater significance for the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman covers the latest on second baseman Daniel Murphy. Though it seems he’s in solid form with the bat, Murphy is still not looking to be at full speed on his legs. For the Nats — and, particularly, their medical staff — there are some tough questions as to how to bring Murphy along. It seems uncertain at this point whether the club can really expect him to function as a full-fledged, regular second baseman this year, which could pose some rather complicated roster questions. The situation is also concerning for the 33-year-old Murphy, of course, who had seemed primed to hit the open market this winter as a high-end hitter.
- What’s most amazing about Matt Kemp‘s remarkable two-month run with the Dodgers, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes, is not the fact that he’s off to a .344/.374/.568 slash. (Indeed, it seems there’s reason to anticipate those numbers coming back to earth, given his .400 BABIP.) Rather, it’s the fact that Kemp is suddenly grading as a solid defender in the corners, allowing him to rack up an impressive 1.8 fWAR in just under two hundred plate appearances. Sullivan examines the defensive component in an interesting piece that’s well worth a full read.
NL West Notes: Padres, Hughes, Stripling, Duplantier
The Padres‘ acquisition of Phil Hughes was clearly more about acquiring the Twins‘ competitive balance draft pick than the pitcher himself, and GM A.J. Preller and scouting director Mark Conner spoke to MLB.com’s A.J Cassavell about the swap. Preller told Cassavell that he’s been calling every team that received pick in the competitive balance lottery on a near-weekly basis in an attempt to acquire an additional selection — something that’s long been a priority but was magnified in 2018 after San Diego surrendered a pick to sign Eric Hosmer. “The game now is about making your money work for you,” said Preller. “…You have to figure out what’s the best bang for your buck. Having the extra pick gives you more options.”
The move was met by excitement from Conner and his scouts, who’ll now not only have an extra pick (No. 74 overall) but an additional $812,200 in their draft pool. The Padres, of course, spent considerably more than that to obtain the pick, relieving the Twins of just over $7.6MM of Hughes’ salary. While it seems a shrewd (albeit expensive) pickup of a resource with limited availability, not every organization agrees; one exec from another club told FanRag’s Jon Heyman last week that the Padres were “insane” for taking on that much of the remaining contract to obtain the pick.
More from the division…
- Ross Stripling, who looks to be in the midst of a breakout season with the Dodgers, spoke to Pedro Moura of The Athletic about the role that data and analytics have played in his emergence (subscription required). The 28-year-old righty has turned in a ridiculous 1.68 ERA with 11.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate in 48 1/3 innings for the Dodgers so far in 2018. Stripling’s success is derived in large part from advance scouting of opposing lineups and taking deep dives into hitters’ strengths and weaknesses. Specifically, Stripling discusses the importance of knowing the quality of contact a hitter will make against pitch types in various portions of the strike zone. “I don’t care about average,” said Stripling. “I just want to know where he pulls the ball at 100 mph. I’m a believer in limiting slug, which is basically limiting exit velocity.” Moura’s column takes a long look not only at Stripling’s sudden success, but also his amateur days, his childhood fascination with baseball statistics and his path to professional baseball.
- The D-backs have had rotten luck with injuries at the big league level in 2018, and it’s apparently extending to the farm system as well. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets that the team’s top prospect, right-hander Jon Duplantier, is dealing with biceps tendinitis and has been shut down from throwing for at least a week. The 23-year-old Duplantier has dominated in Double-A this year, working to a 2.52 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and a 59.8 percent ground-ball rate in 35 2/3 innings. He’s currently ranked as the game’s No. 50 overall prospect over at Baseball America and No. 65 overall at MLB.com.
Dodgers To Select Caleb Ferguson
The Dodgers are set to select the contract of left-handed pitching prospect Caleb Ferguson, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. The news first got out, it seems, when Ferguson’s mother announced it on Facebook (though Hoornsta notes that he’s confirmed the promotion himself as well). The Dodgers have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to add him to the roster.
[Related: Los Angeles Dodgers depth chart]
Ferguson, 21, entered the season ranked 15th among Dodgers farmhands, per Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com. Tommy John surgery in high school caused him to drop to the 38th round of the draft, but he’s steadily risen through the Dodgers’ minor league ranks as he’s mended and rebuilt his arm strength. After dominating Double-A opponents with a 1.38 ERA, 40 strikeouts and 10 walks through 39 innings, Ferguson was moved up to Triple-A for a brief eight-inning stint before now ascending to the game’s highest level.
The addition of Ferguson will give Los Angeles an option to start on Wednesday this week. The Dodgers currently have an entire rotation’s worth of talent on the DL (and a very good rotation, at that) with Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Julio Urias all on the shelf at at the moment. As such, if Ferguson is indeed called upon to start, he’ll step into the rotation alongside Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and fellow rookies Walker Buehler and Dennis Santana. It could be a simple spot start regardless, as the Dodgers have a pair of off-days next week that’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation.
Quick Hits: Hanley, Trumbo, Bellinger, Peavy, Red Sox, Draft
Hanley Ramirez is getting interest from “multiple teams” since officially becoming a free agent, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets. It isn’t any surprise that the veteran slugger is drawing some attention, particularly since he’d be available at a prorated minimum salary while the Red Sox cover the approximately $14.5MM remaining on Ramirez’s contract. Considering the low price tag, any number of teams could have interest — consider that the Orioles, who are already loaded with first base/DH candidates, have already been linked to Ramirez. It was only weeks ago that Ramirez was one of the league’s hottest hitters (posting a .330/.400/.474 slash line over 110 plate appearances in March and April) before he fell into a deep slump that led to his release from the Sox.
Some more from around the baseball world…
- Last winter, the Orioles “checked on” any trade interest in Mark Trumbo, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. It isn’t stated how much interest existed, though one can imagine it was a pretty thin market, given that Trumbo was coming off a rough 2017 season and is owed $26MM in 2018-19. Trumbo has a decent .292/.320/.427 slash line over 100 PA, though he has only two homers and missed all of April recovering from a quad strain. The O’s seem primed to be deadline sellers, though they’d likely have to eat some money to facilitate a Trumbo deal. (Incidentally, he also has a seven-team no-trade clause.)
- The slumping Cody Bellinger hasn’t started two of the Dodgers‘ last three games, as manager Dave Roberts talked to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) about how the reigning NL Rookie Of The Year is trying to adjust to being pitched differently as well as some bad breaks at the plate. “He’s doing everything right as far as the preparation. The results just haven’t been there,” Roberts said. “So as a young player, he’s constantly trying to make adjustments. You get to a point where you wonder if you’re ever going to get a hit. All players go through that at some point in time.” Roberts wasn’t ready to say that a brief minor league stint might eventually be in the cards for Bellinger, who is hitting only .225/.298/.413 with eight homers over his first 238 plate appearances.
- In the latest on Jake Peavy‘s comeback attempt, the veteran righty will hold a private workout for teams sometime in June, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. After sitting out the 2017 season to deal with personal issues, Peavy had been working out and planning to have a showcase in early May, though he said a few weeks ago that he wanted to consult with his children before deciding on a comeback.
- Also from Cafardo’s piece, he notes that tomorrow’s amateur draft carries particular import for a Red Sox farm system that has been thinned out by trades in recent years. Between those losses, Jay Groome‘s Tommy John surgery and Michael Chavis‘ PED suspension, Boston doesn’t seem to have enough young trade chips to make a splash at the deadline. “Let me put it this way, there isn’t anyone in their farm system that a team would say, ‘I have to have that guy.’ Not saying they don’t have anything to make a deal, but they don’t have enough to make a major deal,” one AL scout tells Cafardo. Of course, it remains to see if the Sox will necessarily be looking for a blockbuster upgrade given that the roster is already in very good shape and cruising towards a postseason berth.
- With the first round of the draft less than 24 hours away, Baseball America has released its latest mock draft of the first 35 picks. Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is still seen as the favorite to go to the Tigers with the first overall pick, with Mize unlikely to fall beyond the Giants (at the No. 2 pick) if Detroit goes go in another direction. Interestingly, Baseball America’s executive editor JJ Cooper (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that “it is more likely now than it was any time up to now” that the top three picks will be Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart (Tigers), California high schooler Cole Winn (Giants) and then Mize to the Phillies third overall. Still, there is “only a small chance” of this scenario playing out, and the likeliest scenario is still Mize going to the Tigers.
Dodgers Claim P.J. Conlon
The Dodgers have claimed left-hander P.J. Conlon off waivers from the Mets; the club announced the move. Conlon will be assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma City, and left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu has been transferred to the 60-day DL in order to make room on the 40-man roster.
Conlon hasn’t exactly impressed in his first taste of big league action; he’s allowed seven earned runs in his first two big league starts spanning just 5 2/3 innings. The Mets apparently didn’t need to see much more, as they designated him for assignment on Thursday in order to clear room to add a pair of right-handers to the roster. Juan Lagares was also transferred to the 60-day disabled list at that time.
Even in Triple-A last season, Conlon pitched to a whopping 6.58 ERA in 39 2/3 innings spanning eight starts. A mid-round pick of the Mets back in 2015, Conlon rocketed up the minor league ladder to make his MLB debut while spending no more than one year at each level of the minors. It’s almost curious that the Mets gave up on Conlon without ever giving him more than ten starts above the Double-A level, particularly given his serviceable results at Double-A in 2017.
The Dodgers have some rotation issues of their own, and Conlon could provide some decent minor-league depth. After all, they just learned they’ll be without fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw for another month (though obviously Conlon wouldn’t be much of a consolation prize in that regard).
Dodgers Place Clayton Kershaw On 10-Day DL
6:06pm: Manager Dave Roberts suggests that there’s at least a preliminary expectation that Kershaw will miss over a month of action, Moura tweets.
5:22pm: Star Dodgers hurler Clayton Kershaw returned from the disabled list to start yesterday, but he’s now headed right back to the shelf, as Pedro Moura of The Athletic was among those to indicate on Twitter and the team has now announced. Kershaw has been diagnosed with a lower back strain, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times tweets.
It’s really not surprising to hear that Kershaw will need at least at least a brief additional respite. He reported a tight back yesterday that required an MRI and kept him from traveling with the club. During his five innings of action, Kershaw never topped 90 mph with his fastball, which is hardly a promising sign.
At the moment, there’s no firm indication as to the seriousness of Kershaw’s new injury concern. His prior DL stint this year was for biceps tendinitis, but he has dealt with back troubles in the past two years, including a five-week absence last year for an injury with the same description as this one. Until we learn more, though, there’s no way to know how long Kershaw will be down. And the length of the absence will surely be tied to his progress.
Kershaw is hardly the Dodgers’ only injured starter, which complicates matters in the near term. The club just brought up youngster Dennis Santana for his first taste of the majors to help account for the missing arms. Now, righty Brock Stewart will be recalled to take the open spot on the active roster.
Marlins Acquire Peter O’Brien
The Marlins have acquired first baseman Peter O’Brien from the Dodgers in exchange for cash, tweets Matthew DeFranks of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. It’s a homecoming of sorts for O’Brien, a Miami-area native, though he’s been assigned to the team’s Double-A affiliate in Jacksonville for the time being. He wasn’t on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary for the Marlins.
O’Brien, 27, came up through the Yankees minor league system as a catcher noted for his tremendous power, but he’s bounced all over the diamond thanks to questionable defensive skills and has ultimately settled in at first base. He’s had a rough start to the season with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate, hitting .150/.241/.390. While he’s shown his typical brand of impressive power, clubbing seven homers in 112 plate appearances, he’s also struck out at a 38.9 percent pace so far.
The Marlins will be the seventh organization for O’Brien, who went from the Yankees to the D-backs in the 2014 Martin Prado trade and has since bounced from the D-backs to the Royals, Reds, Rangers and Dodgers in a series of smaller trades and waiver claims. He’s a career .176/.228/.446 hitter in 79 Major League plate appearances and has slashed .254/.306/.495 in 1162 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.