The Astros announced that they have designated right-hander Rafael Montero for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. They also optioned righty Seth Martinez, with those two moves opening roster spots for lefties Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson, who were acquired prior to the trade deadline yesterday. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed the full slate of moves on X.
Montero, now 33, is in the second season of a three-year, $34.5MM deal he signed with the Astros after the 2022 season. He had just made 71 appearances for Houston that year with a 2.37 earned run average, 27% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 52.9% ground ball rate. He recorded 14 saves and 23 holds in the process, then added another ten strong performances in the postseason as the Astros won their second World Series.
But his performance has declined significantly since that contract was signed. He made 68 appearances for the club last year with his ERA ticking up to 5.08. His 26.5% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were all a bit worse than the year prior. There may have been a bit of bad luck in there, as his .358 batting average on balls in play was very high and his 15.3% home run per flyball ratio was almost three times his 5.7% rate from the year prior.
Here in 2024, his 4.70 ERA is actually a slight improvement over last year, but things under the hood are bleak. His 14% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate are both significantly worse than last year and also subpar compared to league averages. He’s actually been pretty lucky when considering his .243 BABIP and 78.6% strand rate. His 6.39 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest he’s actually been worse than his ERA would indicate.
It was reported last week that the Astros were looking to move Montero’s contract as they pursued pitchers with notable salaries such as Zach Eflin and Jameson Taillon. In the end, it seems they were unsuccessful in finding a taker, which isn’t surprising when considering his numbers. Now that the deadline has passed, their only option will be to put him on waivers and they will therefore see Montero depart for nothing.
Given his performance and contract, he will certainly go unclaimed, at which point he has enough service time to elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. Houston will remain on the hook for it while any other club could then sign him and pay him just the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Astros pay.
That’s obviously not the result the club was hoping for when they signed that deal and it’s yet another development that shines an unflattering light on an unusual period in Astros’ history. Despite winning the 2022 World Series, the Astros parted ways with general manager James Click just days after hoisting that trophy. Click was hired somewhat hastily after Jeff Luhnow was fired in the wake of the club’s sign-stealing scandal coming to light. Owner Jim Crane reportedly had a contentious relationship with Click and decided to pivot, despite the club’s continued success while Click was in charge.
Dana Brown was eventually hired to take over as the club’s GM, but not until January of 2023. There was a period of a few months where Crane decided to run the baseball operations department himself, reportedly advised by former big leaguers Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson.
During that window, the club’s two most significant transactions were the Montero deal and the three-year pact for first baseman José Abreu, both of which turned into huge misfires. Like Montero, Abreu grappled with massive struggles before he himself was released last month. Click later took a job in the front office of the Blue Jays, the club that just acquired Kikuchi for Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner.
Montero will surely find himself on the open market in the days to come. Some club could perhaps take a shot on him based on his past success and the fact that there will be effectively no cost. Apart from the 2022 season, his track record is pretty spotty, as he currently has a 4.71 ERA in 462 1/3 career innings. He had a solid run with the Rangers in 2019 and 2020, posting a 3.09 ERA over 46 2/3 innings with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2021 and then struggled badly with a 7.27 ERA, before the Astros acquired him at that year’s deadline. As mentioned, he then had the best season of his career in 2022 before his results tailed off.
