The Opener

After another day that saw a top free agent sign on with a club, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. How much more can the Mets spend?

Mets owner Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets among MLB ownership, and he hasn’t been afraid to use that to his organization’s advantage since he purchased the team in September of 2020. While this year’s collective bargaining agreement included a newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization, Cohen has yet to show much deference to that final, $293MM level. Instead, he’s given the green light to GM Billy Eppler’s front office on signing reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, lefty Jose Quintana, and set-up man David Robertson while also retaining closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo on massive contracts. Altogether, RosterResource pegs New York’s luxury tax line for 2023 at just over $335MM. That figure already has them set to pay more than $60MM in penalties — a figure higher than the entire payroll of the Pirates or A’s in 2022. With the team incurring such massive fees already, it’s fair to wonder if the Mets are approaching the limit of their payroll capacity — if there even is one. Notably, the Mets are reportedly still interesting in adding another starter to their rotation, like Kodai Senga or Chris Bassitt. As perhaps the two best pitchers on the free agent market behind ace Carlos Rodon, both Senga and Bassitt are sure to have more suitors than the Mets for their services, and that could make things complicated for New York. After all, they’ll pay a 90% tax on the AAV for any contract to which they sign Senga or Bassitt this year.

2. Where will center field-needy teams turn with Nimmo off the market?

Yesterday’s deal between the Mets and Nimmo raises more questions than those about the Mets’ payroll. Chief among those questions is where the center field market goes from here. With Nimmo and Cody Bellinger both off the market, the already thin free agent market at the position is nearly barren. Kevin Kiermaier is the top option still available, but he’s recovering from season-ending hip surgery. Those behind him, such as Rafael Ortega, Tyler Naquin, Adam Duvall, and Jackie Bradley Jr. appear to be miscast as everyday players in center, at least for any club with playoff aspirations. With the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rockies, and Marlins among the teams in the hunt for a center fielder, it seems likely that at least some of those clubs will need to explore the trade market to find their next center fielder. The Diamondbacks are flush in center field options at or approaching the big league level, and are drawing interest in that group. Pirates star Bryan Reynolds recently requested a trade, though the Bucs apparently plan to hang onto him regardless. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is a premium right fielder with decent career grades in center, and he’s also drawn some trade interest. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins has long been the source of trade speculation, but given the Orioles’ shift to a win-now mentality, it’d likely take an overwhelming offer for them to even consider moving his remaining three years of club control.

3. Relief market keeps rolling

The relief pitching market has remained active, as Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin both signed deals with the Red Sox, Robertson landed in Queens, Tommy Kahnle returned to the Bronx, and both Brooks Raley and Joe Jimenez were traded in recent days. As early as November, there were signs that the market for relief pitching this offseason would be a robust one, from the megadeal between Diaz and the Mets to surprisingly strong contracts for both Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero. That strong market continued to play out with these deals, as the Red Sox paid out almost $50MM between Jansen and Martin, while both Kahnle and Robertson secured guarantees of more than $10MM despite recent injury struggles. Even with these players off the board, there still remains a number of quality options with late-inning experience on the free agent market, with Craig Kimbrel, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, and Adam Ottavino among the options left on the market.

With a frenzied Winter Meetings in the rear-view mirror, here are some things we’ll be watching around baseball throughout the day:

1. After Bogaerts stunner, what’s next for the shortstop market?

Late last night, the Padres and Xander Bogaerts agreed to a massive 11-year, $280MM deal. While things seemed to be progressing toward a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox as recently as yesterday afternoon, the Padres managed to pry away Boston’s longtime shortstop with a huge offer that runs through Bogaerts’ age-40 season, wildly surpassing even optimistic predictions; MLBTR predicted Bogaerts would receive a seven-year, $189MM deal. Such an expectation-shattering deal could certainly come with implications for the top remaining shortstops on the market, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. With Bogaerts approaching the $300MM mark, and fellow top shortstop Trea Turner reaching it, it seems reasonable to expect that Correa will surpass that benchmark. Swanson isn’t likely to push into that stratosphere, but he could also benefit and beat expectations — particularly given the wide breadth of teams still looking for a shortstop. The Cubs and Twins are both known to be in on both remaining shortstops, but they’re far from the only suitors, even with the Dodgers reportedly bowing out of the Correa market. The Giants are pursuing Correa after missing on Aaron Judge, while both the Red Sox and Cardinals have been linked to Swanson. However, both Boston and St. Louis made significant signings yesterday that could theoretically take them out of the inflated shortstop market: a deal with Willson Contreras for the Cardinals, and deals for both NPB star Masataka Yoshida and closer Kenley Jansen for the Red Sox.

2. Where will the Astros turn at catcher?

The aforementioned five-year, $87.5MM deal between Contreras and St. Louis leaves Houston in a difficult position, as they were the other main suitor for Contreras. The reigning World Series champs have a clear need at catcher, where Martin Maldonado and Korey Lee are the current tandem. The next-best free agent on the market, Christian Vazquez, has been clear about his desire to receive more playing time than he did following an August trade to Houston, where Maldonado remained the starter behind the plate even after Vazquez was accquired. This could leave the Astros pursuing cheaper options behind the plate, such as Tucker Barnhart, to whom they were recently connected. It’s also possible the Astros could dive into the trade market, where each of Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno have been discussed in trade scenarios by their respective teams. The Astros have already been connected to Murphy in recent days, though the acquisition cost could be exorbitant for a division rival. Whether the Astros pursue a lower-tier free agent or a trade for a younger catcher, they won’t be spending anything close to the $87.5MM guarantee Contreras landed with the Cardinals. Given that, it’s possible the Astros could reallocate any money they had set aside for Contreras to other parts of the roster, whether that means signing a pitcher after reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander departed for the Mets, or bolstering their outfield corps with an outfielder like Brandon Nimmo or Andrew Benintendi, as they have been rumored to have interest in doing.

3. MLBTR Chat with Anthony Franco today at 1pm CT

After the whirlwind of the Winter Meetings, do you have any burning questions about your favorite team’s offseason? If so, tune in at 1pm CT for a live chat MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. With so much having happened in the past few days and a few of the biggest free agents on the market yet to sign, there’s plenty to talk about! You can submit a question in advance, and use that same link to check back and participate live.

The stove is so hot that we couldn’t even get this post out this morning! Judge, Quintana, Jansen, Contreras! Here’s what else we’re looking at:

1. How Will The Giants React To Missing Out On Judge?

Perhaps the biggest news of the offseason came in this morning, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on a monster contract. In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the Judge decision was likely holding up most of the remaining top players on the market. With Judge’s decision now made, it’s possible we’ll see movement on other top players, and any such movement will likely involve the Giants and Padres, the losing bidders on Judge. The Giants signed Mitch Haniger last night, but San Francisco will likely be thinking much bigger with regard to future pursuits, as they’ve been connected to Carlos Correa at the top of the shortstop market, have interest in bringing back Carlos Rodón, the top pitcher left on the market, and may turn to Brandon Nimmo in their pursuit of a second outfield signing. Nimmo, of course, is the top outfield free agent available now that Judge has signed. With the Giants reportedly having offered Judge a deal in the range of $360MM, they should have plenty of money available for pursuits of any of these top free agents.

2. The Rule 5 Draft Is Today

The Winter Meetings are set to end today, and they’ll likely feature the same flurry of activity the past two days had. Today won’t be entirely the same, however, as the Rule 5 draft will occur at 4 PM CT this afternoon. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have space on their 40-man to accommodate their Rule 5 selections. Currently, the 40-man rosters of the Angels, D-Backs, Rangers, Rays and Royals are full. This year’s Rule 5 draft is of particular note because the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft did not occur last year, leaving more players than usual freshly vulnerable in the draft this time. Between the Rule 5 draft and a likely third straight busy day of rumors and signings, the final day of this year’s Winter Meetings looks to be one to watch. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

3. Who’s Left On The Mid-Rotation Market?

Yesterday saw the market for mid-rotation starters heat up in a big way, as the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney, the Phillies inked Taijuan Walker and the Cubs landed Jameson Taillon. It isn’t slowing down today, with the Mets and José Quintana agreeing on a deal. Walker and Taillon landed similar deals of four years, with Walker’s $72MM slightly outdoing Taillon’s $68MM, while Heaney took a different approach to his free agency, settling for a guarantee of just two years, $25MM in order to secure an opt-out that will allow him to test free agency again next offseason if he so chooses. In any case, the deals indicate that the market has gotten much stronger for mid-rotation starters since Tyler Anderson’s three year, $39MM deal with the Angels last month. With prices soaring, the supply of mid-rotation options in free agency is shrinking rapidly, with Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt the best options remaining behind Rodón, the last remaining ace. Looking a bit further down the free agency tier list, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea also remain on the market. Any of these pitchers could see their markets heat up as the Winter Meetings come to a close, now that the mid-rotation market has been established and their fellow free agents are beginning to sign.

With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?

Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.

2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?

Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).

3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.

In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

With the biggest event of the baseball offseason underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. The Winter Meetings are underway

Today marks the first full day of the Winter Meetings, with executives, agents, and players around baseball having convened in San Diego to do business. The day is sure to be rife with rumors fresh from the hot stove, with the potential for a new deal to break at any minute. Much of the focus is on Aaron Judge, particularly in the wake of multiple reports that he could have a deal in hand some point before the Winter Meetings end. The free-agent shortstop quartet of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will also dominate headlines this week, and Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that center fielder Brandon Nimmo is in San Diego for face-to-face meetings with interested teams. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

2. Could the top of the pitching market keep moving forward?

Jacob deGrom’s five-year deal with the Rangers takes one of the most talented pitchers on the planet off the free agent market, but two aces are still available to be signed: reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and lefty ace Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers had phenomenal years in 2022, with Verlander’s 1.75 ERA in 2022 leading all of baseball and Rodon’s 2.25 FIP doing the same. The Mets appear to be among the most heavily involved on both players after losing deGrom to Texas, but they’re hardly lacking in competition. Verlander has been repeatedly connected to the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays been mentioned as another possible suitor for a second straight offseason. Rodon, on the other hand, reportedly has as many as nine teams interested, with the Orioles among those most recently connected to him. What’s more, the Rangers may still be interested in signing the lefty even after acquiring deGrom. While a team signing two players at the same position at the top of the market is typically rare, the Rangers should not be counted out, having done so as recently as last offseason when they inked both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals.

3. Will the A’s deal Murphy soon?

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quashed rumors that his club could be on the verge of landing catcher Sean Murphy in a deal with the A’s last night, but Oakland is still actively discussing trades with several interested suitors. It’s been widely expected that the A’s will trade Murphy this offseason, with the team in the midst of a rebuild and flush with options behind the plate. Top prospect Shea Langeliers already reached the big league level in 2022, while fellow top prospect Tyler Soderstrom climbed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A in 2022. The Guardians, Rays, Red Sox and Cardinals are among the teams known to have interest in Murphy, all of whom have the stockpile of prospects and young talent necessary to swing such a deal.

As the calendar flips to December, here’s three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

 1. Catcher market heating up?

It’s not a particularly deep catching market in free agency this year, with Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headlining, but the trade market offers some strong options for catcher-hungry teams. Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros are planning to meet with Contreras at the Winter Meetings, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Guardians are showing continued interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, who appears highly likely to be dealt. His three years of remaining club control and strong offensive and defensive prowess makes him a sought-after target, and a robust market has developed. Morosi suggested a deal could be done during the Winter Meetings, and teams that miss out on Murphy could quickly pivot to one of the top free agents, while the Blue Jays are expected to deal one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno this winter.

2. Will Aaron Judge’s free agency come to an end at the Winter Meetings?

It’s beginning to look like it might. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Yankees have tabled an offer to Judge worth around $300MM over eight years. It’s not known how Judge’s camp has reacted to that, or what any other offers look like, but the report was notable for one other thing. Passan suggested that Judge’s free agency is primed to wrap up within the Winter Meetings, so in a week’s time we could know if Judge will be in pinstripes in 2023, heading to the Bay Area, or to some other team. In many ways, it makes sense that Judge would be the first major free agent to sign. Both the Yankees and Giants will likely be aggressive in other areas if they miss out on Judge. Agents for other top free agents are certainly aware of this and so it makes sense that Judge is holding up the top end of the market.

3. When will the first shortstop come off the board?

It almost certainly depends on what happens with Judge. If, say, the Yankees watch Judge sign in San Francisco, they could quickly pivot and jump into the market for Trea Turner or Carlos Correa. So if you’re Turner’s agent, it makes sense to wait until Judge is gone and see if the deep-pocketed Yankees or Giants are willing to jump in and drive your client’s price up further. Passan reports that the market for the shortstops is already heating up. The Twins are making a strong push to re-sign Correa, Turner has a wide range of suitors, so too are Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The offseason has been slow to this point as teams have spent the past month laying groundwork, but it certainly seems like the next week could be busy and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of the four big name shortstops settle on a home for 2023 and beyond.

As the Winter Meetings approach, here’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:

1. The top of the starting pitching market

Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon sit atop the free agent list for starting pitching this winter. A combination of injury history and age makes the contract for each tricky to predict, but we are seeing markets emerge for each. It was revealed yesterday that the Rays had been in touch with deGrom, joining the Yankees, Mets and Rangers as teams with confirmed interest. Rodon had a Zoom meeting with the Mets yesterday, and the Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Rangers and Giants have all shown interest in the lefty this winter. Verlander is coming off a Cy Young-winning season and has been linked to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, as well as a return to Houston. As teams meet with these players, it might not be long before things ramp up and given the similar teams being linked to each option, once one name comes off the board the others might follow quickly.

2. Which players might come off the board before the Winter Meetings begin?

The Winter Meetings will kick off Sunday in San Diego  for the first time since 2019, and the widespread expectation is that they’ll spur some action both on the free agent and trade markets (as is commonplace). That said, a handful of recognizable names could come off the board even before Sunday evening. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported this week that former Red Sox hurlers Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Strahm have strong enough markets that a deal could materialize this week. Meanwhile, the Pirates have had talks with Kyle Gibson, The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel reported, and his market has been “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gibson’s free agency wrapped up quickly last time he was on the market, when he signed just before Thanksgiving, so it stands to reason that he could be keen on another short stay on the market rather than a drawn-out process. Meanwhile, the Pirates have already signed Carlos Santana, acquired Ji-Man Choi and traded Kevin Newman, so they’ve shown a willingness to make some early deals themselves.

3. Chat with Anthony Franco today at 5pm CT

With the Winter Meetings just around the corner and the bulk of the market’s most notable free agents and trade targets yet to find new homes, many of the biggest storylines of the offseason have yet to truly unfold. There’s plenty to talk about, and MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will host a live chat taking your questions at 5pm CT. You can leave a question here in advance, and be sure to use this link to join and participate live if you’re able!