Yankees Decline Club Option On Joely Rodriguez
The Yankees announced that they have declined their $3MM club option on Joely Rodriguez for the 2022 season. The left-hander will instead receive a $500K buyout and enter free agency. In another move, New York added catcher Donny Sands to the team’s Major League roster.
Rodriguez pitched quite well for the Bronx Bombers after being acquired as pat of the Joey Gallo blockbuster at the trade deadline. The left-handed had posted a 5.93 over 27 1/3 innings with the Rangers to begin the season, but then had a 2.84 ERA over 19 innings with New York. An extreme groundball pitcher, Rodriguez had a high BABIP with both teams, but reduced his walk rate and some of his hard-contact numbers once he arrived in the Bronx, though he also had a lower strikeout rate.
At the net cost of $2.5MM, the Yankees might have felt there was too much variability in Rodriguez’s grounder-heavy arsenal to count on a repeat performance in 2022. With Wandy Peralta and Lucas Luetge (not to mention closer Aroldis Chapman) all slated to be part of next year’s bullpen, the Yankees could have also felt they were set with enough left-handed relief depth.
Rodriguez’s numbers have been inconsistent over his four MLB seasons, though he has shown some flashes of quality, especially on the few occasions he has paired his big grounder rates with above-average number of strikeouts. The lefty also pitched very well with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball in 2018-19, which drew attention from the Rangers and led to Rodriguez’s return to North American ball.
Red Sox Extend Qualifying Offer To Eduardo Rodriguez
The Red Sox have issued a qualifying offer to left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Rodriguez has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept the one-year, $18.4MM contract. If he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get draft pick compensation in return, and E-Rod’s new team will have to surrender at least one pick.
Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA wouldn’t make him an obvious qualifying offer candidate at first glance, yet it isn’t surprising that Boston would issue the QO once you look at the underlying statistics. Rodriguez posted above-average strikeout, walk, and hard-hit ball rates, and his .289 xwOBA fell far under his .330 wOBA. The southpaw’s .363 BABIP was also pretty telling, as Rodriguez didn’t receive much luck on batted balls or help from Boston’s defense. Other ERA estimators (3.32 FIP/3.43/xFIP/3.64 SIERA) painted a much more appealing picture of Rodriguez’s 2021 performance.
Most importantly, Rodriguez was healthy and capable of tossing 157 2/3 innings in 2021 — a welcome sight considering that he missed all of 2020 recovering from myocarditis, caused by a case of COVID-19. Apart from a brief bout of elbow inflammation that caused him to miss the first week of the season, E-Rod looked much like his normal self in 2021.
With of all these factors in mind plus the fact that Rodriguez doesn’t turn 29 until April, there is little doubt he’ll receive plenty of attention in free agency this winter. There may be a slim chance Rodriguez accepts the qualifying offer, but he should still be able to land a healthy multi-year deal, given all of the advanced metrics that teams will pay heed to moreso than the 4.74 ERA.
The QO probably shouldn’t have too much of an adverse impact on his market, and the Sox have now put themselves in line to capitalize via the compensation route if Rodriguez does sign with another team. That said, the Red Sox have also expressed interest in re-signing the left-hander, and the two sides have discussed contract extensions as recently as this past Spring Training.
Dodgers Don’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Clayton Kershaw
As expected, the Dodgers officially announced that both Corey Seager and Chris Taylor will receive qualifying offers prior to today’s 4pm CT deadline. However, Seager and Taylor were the only players mentioned, meaning that Clayton Kershaw will enter free agency without the qualifying offer attached to his services.
Kershaw, Taylor, and Seager were the only Dodger free agents who were both eligible for the QO (Max Scherzer and Kenley Jansen weren’t eligible, for the record) and seemed like candidates to be issued the one-year, $18.4MM deal. Seager was obviously a no-brainer and Taylor also seemed like an increasingly obvious lock for the QO, but Kershaw’s case suddenly became much cloudier due to his season-ending forearm injury. While Kershaw’s injury won’t require surgery and he expects to be ready for Spring Training, the issue certainly seems substantial enough for the Dodgers to have doubts about an $18.4MM commitment.
It isn’t a guarantee that Kershaw would have accepted a qualifying offer, but it would certainly seem like a possibility considering his injury-shortened 2021 campaign. Elbow inflammation sidelined Kershaw for over two months, and his forearm problems then prevented him from taking part in the Dodgers’ postseason run. Over 121 2/3 innings pitched, however, Kershaw still posted a 3.55 ERA with outstanding strikeout (29.5%) and walk (4.3%) rates.
The lack of a QO doesn’t necessarily spell the end of Kershaw’s run in a Dodgers uniform. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already said that the team will approach Kershaw’s trip to the open market in a different manner than they would a normal free agent, given Kershaw’s legendary status in Los Angeles.
Interpreted another way, however, it could be that the Dodgers are giving Kershaw a bit of leeway towards a potential departure by not extending a qualifying offer. If Kershaw rejected a QO, his new team would have to give up a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money to sign him, which could have hampered Kershaw’s market to some extent.
Now, the southpaw doesn’t have anything hindering his first-ever trip to free agency, which would at least slightly increase the chance that Kershaw’s Dodgers tenure could be up after 14 seasons. There has been speculation that the Texas native might be interested in pitching closer to home, which would put the Astros and particularly the Rangers (Kershaw is from Dallas and lives in the area) on the radar as possible landing spots.
Tigers Select Elvin Rodriguez
The Detroit Tigers have announced that they have selected right-handed pitcher Elvin Rodriguez to their 40-man roster. Additionally, Tucker Barnhart, recently acquired in a trade with the Reds, had his club option for 2022 selected. Three players were also reinstated from the 60-day IL: catcher Jake Rogers and righties Rony Garcia and Spencer Turnbull.
Rodriguez was originally brought over to the organization as the player to be named later in the trade that sent Justin Upton to the Angels. At the time of the trade, he was only 19 and pitching in A-ball. Since that time, he has climbed through the Tigers’ system, reaching Triple-A this year. Baseball America ranked him as the #18 prospect in the organization in 2020, but he didn’t crack the 2021 list. FanGraphs ranked him at #30 in the Tigers’ system last year and #35 this year.
The righty, who turns 24 in March, made 18 starts at the Double-A level this year, logging 75 2/3 innings. His 5.83 ERA certainly doesn’t seem impressive, but it came with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate and average-ish 8.8% walk rate. After his season in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A for a single two-inning appearance in October. The club has a solid core of young hurlers in their rotation, with Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning being the headline names. Rodriguez will likely start the year in Triple-A and try to force his way into the big league picture as the season goes on.
The other transactions were mere formalities. There is no IL in the offseason, meaning all players on the 60-day IL have to be reinstated and retake their roster spots, with today being the deadline to do so. Barnhart was just acquired in a trade a few days ago, making it a lock that his option would be exercised by the club.
Rays Pick Up Option On Mike Zunino
The Rays have exercised their $7MM club option to keep Mike Zunino in the fold for 2022, as reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Also, Topkin reports that the club has selected catcher Rene Pinto to the 40-man roster and designated left-handed pitcher Adam Conley for assignment.
After a mediocre showing in 2020, the Rays declined a $4.5MM club option on Zunino for 2021, but then re-signed him to a new deal. It paid him $2MM for the year, as well as a $1MM buyout on a club option for 2022, which had a base value of $4MM but could increase as high as $7MM if Zunino played 100 games on the campaign. In the end, he got into 109 games and thus increased the option to its maximum value of $7MM.
Along the way, he had arguably his best season, hitting 33 home runs and slashing .216/.301/.559. Combining that offensive production with his strong defensive numbers, he was worth 4.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, just shy of his personal best of 4.6 from 2017. That level of production made it a no-brainer for the Rays to pick up the option and keep him around.
However, with the perpetually-frugal Rays, you can never discount a player being sent packing via trade, no matter how good they’ve been. They’ve never had an opening day payroll higher than $77MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, their 2022 payroll is already hovering in that range. That might mean this offseason sees the Rays engage in more of their usual creative maneuverings to keep the team competitive under their self-imposed limits.
This year’s crop of free agent catchers is quite weak, meaning Zunino would be of great interest to other clubs if the Rays were to shop him around. But then again, that would leave the club with a big hole behind the plate, as Francisco Mejia would be the only catcher on the 40-man roster with big league experience.
The 25-year-old Pinto was added to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency in a few hours. He split this season almost evenly between Double-A and Triple-A. Overall, he played 93 games, slashing .274/.325/.500, good enough for a wRC+ of 121.
As for Conley, the 31-year-old logged 19 2/3 innings for the Rays this year, with an ERA of 2.29. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $900K through arbitration, but the club will instead subtract him from the roster. Teams will now have seven days to claim Conley or work out a trade with the Rays. If he clears waivers, he can elect free agency as a player with more than three years’ service time.
Red Sox Decline Options On Martin Perez, Garrett Richards
The Red Sox have declined their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. He will instead receive a $500K buyout and head into free agency. Right-hander Garrett Richards will also have his $10MM option declined, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He gets a $1.5MM buyout on his way into the free agent pool.
The decision on Perez is largely unsurprising, given how things went for him in 2021. He posted mediocre results over the first few months of the season and was eventually bumped to a bullpen role for the playoff stretch. In 22 starts, the last of which was August 5th, he threw 100 innings with an ERA of 4.77, 19.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. After moving to the bullpen, he logged 14 innings in 14 games with similar results, as he had an ERA of 4.50, strikeout rate of 18.8% and 4.7% walk rate. Perez also pitched three postseason innings for the Red Sox, but they didn’t go well, as he allowed six hits, four walks and four earned runs, without tallying a strikeout.
Despite that meager showing, Perez could garner some interest for a job at the back of a rotation or a swing role. Although he has a lengthy track record, he’s still relatively young, turning 31 in April. The lack of strikeouts have always been a part of his numbers and that hasn’t stopped him from having productive seasons in the past. He could help a team soak up some innings without a huge financial commitment.
As for Richards, he also made 22 starts but eventually got bumped into a bullpen role, just like Perez. His last start was August 8th, just a few days after his teammate’s. In those starts, he logged 110 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.22, strikeout rate of 17.2% and 9.5% walk rate. After moving into a relief role, things seemed to greatly improve for him, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in September. At that time, Richards had thrown 20 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with an ERA of 0.87, a 29.4 percent strikeout rate, a 9.4 percent walk rate and a 48.1 percent ground-ball rate. However, his final few appearances weren’t great and his ERA as a reliever shot up to 3.42. Richards made one postseason appearance but was removed from the ALDS roster with a hamstring strain that ultimately ended his season.
He will make for an interesting wildcard option on the free agent market this year. He’s now far removed from his best stretch as a starter, which came in 2013-2015, but he showed flashes of potentially being an effective reliever, albeit in a fairly small sample size. He’ll turn 34 in May and seems to be in line for a short-term deal, whether it’s as a starter or reliever.
Cubs Claim Wade Miley Off Waivers From Reds
Nov. 7: The Cubs have announced that they have officially picked up Miley’s option, securing his services for the 2022 campaign.
Nov. 5: The Cubs announced Friday that they’ve claimed left-hander Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall said just two days ago the the team needed to “align our payroll to our resources,” and the surprising decision to waive Miley, who has an eminently reasonable $10MM club option for the 2022 season, further foreshadows the team’s direction this offseason.
By placing Miley on waivers rather than declining his option, the Reds spared themselves a $1MM buyout (while also strengthening a division-rival club’s rotation). Given the fact that Miley was claimed at that $10MM price point, it stands to reason that the Reds could have exercised the option and found a trade partner later in the offseason.
Krall tells reporters that he explored the market for Miley over the past couple of weeks and found no interest (Twitter link via the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale). That said, we saw last offseason that Brad Hand went unclaimed on waivers at $10MM, only to eventually land a $10.5MM guarantee in free agency. It’s certainly plausible (if not likely, based on the Cubs claiming Miley with the No. 7 waiver priority) that a team would have eventually shown interest once the option was exercised. However, it seems the ownership wanted no part of either paying the buyout on the option, paying down any of Miley’s would-be salary, or simply being “stuck” with a $10MM left-hander who pitched 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball in 2021.
It’s the second straight season that the Reds are signaling a clear intention to reduce payroll. The Reds’ $126MM Opening Day mark in 2019 took the team to a new franchise-record, and ownership committed to an even larger sum in advance of the 2020 season, when the Reds would’ve had a payroll north of $150MM were it not for the Covid-19 shutdown and the eventual prorating of salaries.
Last offseason was punctuated by a series of Reds moves designed to reduce expenditures, most notably dumping Raisel Iglesias‘ salary on the Angels and non-tendering both Archie Bradley and Curt Casali. The Reds spoke of “reallocating” those resources at the time of those moves but largely sat out the free-agent market despite needs at shortstop and (due to the Iglesias/Bradley decisions) in the bullpen. The early-offseason decisions to waive Miley and trade catcher Tucker Barnhart (who had a club option of his own) pair with Krall’s comments to date to portend a rough winter for Reds fans.
With Miley now out of the rotation in Cincinnati, starting roles will fall to Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Vladimir Gutierrez. Krall listed lefty Reiver Sanmartin and prospects Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene as candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic), at least indirectly suggests the team will first look inward to replace Miley’s innings. Of course, given the mounting context associated with these moves, it stands to reason that any of Gray, Castillo or Mahle could be moved this offseason.
As for the Cubs, the sudden acquisition of Miley no doubt qualifies as a highly unexpected but extremely welcome surprise to begin their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has made no secret that the team will seek out veteran innings this winter, and Miley provides just that in bulk — at a highly affordable rate. While the lefty’s career looked to be on the downswing back in 2016-17, he’s enjoyed a stark turnaround over the past several seasons, culminating in a brilliant 2021 showing.
Since signing a minor league deal with the Brewers in 2018, Miley has amassed 425 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball with three different clubs. He carries a below-average 18% strikeout rate in that time but a solid 8% walk rate and a well above-average 50.2% ground-ball rate. This past season was his best since way back in 2012. Miley’s 163 frames ranked 37th among the 909 players who pitched in the Majors this season, and that 3.37 ERA ranked 18th among qualified hurlers. His 49.8% ground-ball rate, meanwhile, ranked 10th.
The Cubs lacked any real form of certainty beyond Kyle Hendricks and, to a lesser extent, Alec Mills in next year’s rotation. Miley joins Hendricks as veteran anchor pair with the less-established Mills and younger arms like Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson and Brailyn Marquez. It’s quite likely that Hoyer & Co. will remain in the market for additional rotation help this winter, but securing Miley this early on affords both cost certainty and the luxury to perhaps pursue a younger free agent with a bit of upside.
Cardinals To Hire Skip Schumaker As Bench Coach
Nov. 7: Katie Woo of The Athletic tweets that Schumaker’s deal is a one-year contract with options.
Nov. 6: Skip Schumaker is returning to the Cardinals. The former infielder will join new manager Oliver Marmol’s staff as the bench coach, per Rob Rains of stlsportspage.com (via Twitter). The agreement will be finalized this weekend, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Schumaker was thought to be a candidate to take over as manager after Mike Shildt was let go, and while that job ultimately went to Marmol, Schumaker returns to the Midwest anyway to serve as Marmol’s right hand. Schumaker was the Padres’ first base coach last season. He now steps into the role that Marmol himself filled for St. Louis last year.
The scrappy infielder/outfielder was a fan favorite of the Cardinals’ rabid fanbase during his playing days. He spent eight seasons in St. Louis, slashing .288/.345/.377 in 2,687 plate appearances.
Blue Jays To Issue Qualifying Offers To Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray; Steven Matz Will Not Receive QO
As expected, the Blue Jays will issue qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). The Jays opted against issuing the QO to Steven Matz, however, and Heyman adds that Matz also recently turned down a multi-year contract offer from Toronto.
There was no doubt Semien and Ray would receive qualifying offers, as two of the top members of the 2021-22 free agent class. Semien and Ray will also surely reject the qualifying offer (a one-year, $18.4MM deal) and look to land pricey longer-term contracts on the open market. Toronto has interest in re-signing both players, but if Semien and/or Ray sign elsewhere after turning down the QO, the Jays will now receive compensatory draft picks.
Matz was an interesting borderline QO case, and the Blue Jays front office was reportedly weighing the idea of extending the offer to the left-hander. Unlike the other two Toronto free agents, Matz might have been a candidate to accept, even though he has posted very solid numbers in three of his last four seasons (excepting an injury-plagued down year in 2020). Matz doesn’t quite have the established track record to ensure that he would be a lock for a big multi-year contract on the open market, and thus might have preferred to take that one-year, $18.4MM guarantee now and then test free agency again next year.
However, it seems the Blue Jays might have felt $18.4MM was too much to spend for one season of Matz, even if the Jays are expected to spend more in payroll next year. This doesn’t mean a reunion between Matz and the Jays isn’t possible, except Toronto will now have to compete with other suitors to lock down Matz’s services. With free agency officially opening on Monday, Matz is surely interested in hearing from those other suitors, so it isn’t surprising that he rejected the Jays’ last-minute contract offer.
Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard
The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard. The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.
It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.
Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York. The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.
If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday. With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume). Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.
New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out. Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.
Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season. A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.
Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck. Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.
It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter. However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season. It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.