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Some franchises have had tremendous success locking up star players to team-friendly extensions early on in their careers. The deals are an integral part of the current Rays teams, and they figured prominently into John Hart’s model for the 1990s Indians. 

But not all early-career extensions are team friendly, even if they first seem shrewd. Teams couldn’t make Mo Vaughn-sized mistakes on players with one or two years of service time if they tried to, but the moves can and do backfire on a more modest scale. 

MLBTR's Extension Tracker lists all the extensions signed by players with less than two years of service time since 2009. I’ve compared these contracts to how the players' earnings might look if they had gone year to year instead of signing long-term (click on the team names for MLBTR posts for each extension):

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies – Even though Jimenez is coming off of an up-and-down 2011 season, his deal is a team-friendly one. If he hadn't signed, Jimenez would have been arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2010 season. The combination of his sparkling platform season and strong career numbers would have set Jimenez up for a potentially record-setting 2011 salary of $4.4MM or more followed by a raise for the 2012 season. Instead, he earned $2.8MM last year and will earn just $4.2MM in 2012. There's no denying Jimenez struggled last year, but this extension saved his teams money.

Denard Span, Twins – Before signing his deal, Span had a career OPS of .811 in 1087 plate appearances. Since the contract, he has a .682 OPS in 1016 plate appearances. I estimate he'd be in line for a salary in the $2-2.5MM range if he had gone to arbitration as a first-time eligible player this offseason. Instead, he'll earn $3MM in 2012 with generous raises on the way for 2013-14.

Brett Anderson, Athletics – Anderson (pictured) would have been arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason if he hadn't signed his extension. The lefty missed the second half of the 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and will earn $3.25MM in 2012. If he hadn't signed an extension, his salary would have been lower, likely in the $2-3MM range. This deal could pay off later, since the A's have a club option for one of Anderson's free agent seasons.

Ricky Romero, Blue Jays – Romero would have been arbitration eligible this offseason and his numbers would likely have placed his 2012 salary in the $4MM range if he hadn’t signed an extension. Romero will earn $5MM in 2012, so the Blue Jays’ savings will start in 2013 or 2014, when the left-hander earns $7.5MM per year. The deal couldn't be going much better for either side at this point.

Wade Davis, Rays – Davis wouldn't yet be arbitration eligible even if he hadn't signed his contract last offseason. So far the Rays' investment looks fair, but unspectacular. Davis pitched 184 solid innings last year and would be well on his way to a 2013 salary in the $3MM range. Instead, he'll earn $2.8MM next year.

Jose Tabata, Pirates – Tabata has only played a partial season since signing his deal, so it’s too early to assess its success.

Matt Moore, Rays – Moore has thrown all of 304 pitches at the Major League level (postseason included). We’ll have a better sense of how his deal is going a year from now.

Extensions are about risk management for both the player and the team. It’s understandable for players like Evan Longoria to seek guaranteed money early in their careers, just as it’s understandable for teams to cap costs on players who seem headed for certain stardom. Some deals work out considerably better than others, though, and the lesson here is that early-career extensions are far from a sure thing for teams.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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Less than a month ago, 142 MLB players filed for salary arbitration. Today, just 16 of those players remain unsigned, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. I've discussed many of these cases with team executives or agents to get a sense of the players' value. Here are the ten most prominent cases remaining (sorted by the midpoint between team and player submissions):

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox ($14.575MM midpoint) – Unlike most of the players on this list, Ortiz will be compared to free agents if he goes to a hearing with the Red Sox. This part of the arbitration process isn’t quite as well defined as it is for players with less than six years of service, and the relative uncertainty may have contributed to the spread of nearly $4MM. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald recently asked arbitration expert Tal Smith about the case and suggested Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez and Paul Konerko are possible comps. 

2. Mike Napoli, Rangers ($9.9MM midpoint) – Napoli put together a tremendous regular season and punctuated it with three postseason home runs. He's looking for a salary of $11.5MM and could argue that the length and consistency of his career contribution puts him in Andre Ethier ($10.95MM) territory. Meanwhile, the Rangers may point to Hunter Pence's recent $3.5MM raise and argue that Napoli should obtain a relatively modest boost from his 2011 salary of $5.8MM.

3. Nelson Cruz, Rangers ($6.5MM midpoint) – Cruz (pictured) is linked to Adam Jones this year, since their numbers and salary demands are comparable. Expect Cruz, the 2011 ALCS MVP, to earn more in 2012.

4. Adam Jones, Orioles ($6.2MM midpoint) – Jones and his representatives at CAA will argue that the center fielder has earned a salary of $7.4MM salary after another stellar season in Baltimore. The Orioles will argue the demand for a $4.15MM raise is unreasonable and they could point to recent raises Adam LaRoche (after 2007), Delmon Young (after 2010), Cody Ross (after 2010), Napoli (after 2010) and Miguel Montero (after 2011) in an attempt to keep Jones below the midpoint.

5. Alex Gordon, Royals ($4.8MM midpoint) – The Royals explored the possibility of a long-term deal earlier in the offseason and are now nearing a one-year deal. Should the sides go to a hearing, the Royals could point to Gordon’s history of inconsistency, while agent Casey Close could build his case around Gordon's strong 2011 platform season.

6. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians ($4.475MM midpoint) – The Indians are discussing a multiyear deal with Cabrera, who could be in line for an extension in the four-year, $27MM range.

7. Elvis Andrus, Rangers ($3.125MM midpoint) – Power pays in arbitration and Andrus is anything but a power hitter. However, he's looking at a salary in the $3MM range thanks to three full seasons of 145-plus games and additional contributions in the postseason. It might also make sense for the sides to explore a multiyear deal.

8. Casey McGehee, Pirates ($2.538MM midpoint) – McGehee and teammate Garrett Jones are linked via arbitration, as I explained last week.

9. Garrett Jones, Pirates ($2.375MM midpoint) – Recent first-time eligible position players such as Seth Smith ($2.415MM), Colby Rasmus ($2.7MM), Ian Stewart ($2.229MM) and David Murphy ($2.4MM) could figure in to discussions for McGehee and Jones as well.

10. Jose Veras, Brewers ($2.19MM midpoint) – Veras, who was traded for McGehee earlier this offseason, has already been non-tendered twice. He's now going through the arbitration process for the first time, and has 318 respectable career innings and a strong platform season to his name.

For more on salary arbitration in baseball check out MLBTR’s arbitration resources. Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

The Tigers used "draft pick currency" in acquiring Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins in 2007 using '05 first-round pick Cameron Maybin and '06 first rounder Andrew Miller, agent Scott Boras noted in January.  Boras feels that the Tigers were ahead of the curve in that regard.  Let's take a look at other first-round picks who were dealt within approximately three years of being drafted in recent years.

• November 2007: Twins trade 2005 first-rounder Matt Garza with Eduardo Morlan and Jason Bartlett to Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.  GM: Bill Smith.
• January 2008: Braves trade 2005 first-rounder Joey Devine with Jamie Richmond to the Athletics for Mark Kotsay.  GM: Frank Wren.
• July 2008: Red Sox trade 2005 first-rounder Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to Pirates, Dodgers sent 2006 first-rounder Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche to Pirates, Red Sox sent Manny Ramirez to Dodgers, Pirates sent Jason Bay to Red Sox.  GMs: Theo Epstein, Ned Colletti.
• July 2008: Phillies trade 2006 first-rounder Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer to Athletics for Joe Blanton.  GM: Pat Gillick.
• July 2008: Brewers trade 2007 first-rounder Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson, and Zach Jackson to Indians for C.C. Sabathia.  GM: Doug Melvin.
• June 2009: Cardinals trade 2006 first-rounder Chris Perez and Jess Todd to Indians for Mark DeRosa.  GM: John Mozeliak.
• July 2009: Giants trade 2007 first-rounder Tim Alderson to Pirates for Freddy Sanchez.  GM: Brian Sabean.
• July 2009: Red Sox trade 2007 first-rounder Nick Hagadone, 2008 first-rounder Bryan Price, and Justin Masterson to Indians for Victor Martinez.  GM: Theo Epstein.
• July 2009: Cardinals trade 2008 first-rounder Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Mortensen to Athletics for Matt Holliday.  The A's traded Wallace several months later, and then the Blue Jays traded him in July 2010.
• July 2009: White Sox trade 2007 first rounder Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter for Jake Peavy.  GM: Kenny Williams.
• December 2009: Mariners trade 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow to Blue Jays for Johermyn Chavez and Brandon League.  GM: Jack Zduriencik.
• December 2009: Diamondbacks trade 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer and 2008 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth to Tigers, Tigers sent Curtis Granderson to Yankees, Tigers sent Edwin Jackson to Diamondbacks, Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to Tigers, Yankees sent 2006 first-rounder Ian Kennedy to Diamondbacks.  GMs: Josh Byrnes, Brian Cashman.
• December 2009: Phillies trade 2006 first-rounder Kyle Drabek, 2007 first-rounder Travis d'Arnaud, and Michael Taylor to Blue Jays for Roy Halladay and cash.  GM: Ruben Amaro, Jr.
• December 2009: Mariners trade 2007 first-rounder Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies to Phillies for Cliff Lee.  GM: Jack Zduriencik.
• July 2010: Rangers trade 2007 first-rounder Michael Main and Chris Ray to Giants for Bengie Molina.  GM: Jon Daniels.
  
• July 2010: Rangers trade 2008 first-rounder Justin Smoak, 2007 first-rounder Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, and Josh Lueke to Mariners for Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and cash.  GM: Jon Daniels.
  
• December 2011: Reds trade 2008 first-rounder Yonder Alonso, 2010 first rounder Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, and 2009 first-rounder Brad Boxberger to Padres for Mat Latos.  GM: Walt Jocketty.
• December 2010: Brewers trade 2008 first-rounder Brett Lawrie to Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum.  GM: Doug Melvin.
• December 2010: Red Sox trade 2008 first-rounder Casey Kelly, 2009 first rounder Reymond Fuentes, Anthony Rizzo, and Eric Patterson to Padres for Adrian Gonzalez.  GM: Theo Epstein.
• July 2011: Tigers trade 2010 first-rounder Chance Ruffin, Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush, and Casper Wells to Mariners for Doug Fister and David Pauley.  GM: Dave Dombrowski.
• July 2011: Indians trade 2010 first-rounder Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joseph Gardner, and Matt McBride to Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.  GM: Chris Antonetti.
• July 2011: Giants trade 2009 first rounder Zack Wheeler to Mets for Carlos Beltran.  GM: Brian Sabean.

Bottom line: if the Cubs reach a point of contending under Epstein, recent first-round picks should keep their bags packed.  Melvin, Sabean, and the Phillies' brass have been aggressive in trading first-round picks.  Zduriencik moved a couple of first-rounders when the Mariners were closer to contention, although they were not his draft picks.

As for literal draft pick currency, 13 teams are eligible for the first competitive balance draft pick lottery this year.  The picks given for this lottery can be traded, but only once by a team, only during the regular season, and not for cash.

With over 1,500 players, MLBTR's agency database has become a useful tool for fans and journalists.  The database has been growing for about a year now, but some gaps in the data remain.  Specifically, we're seeking agency information for 315 players currently on 40-man rosters.  If you work for an agency that represents any of these players, or otherwise know a player's representation with certainty, we'd greatly appreciate an email to mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.  Click below to see the list of players for which we seek agency data.

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So far this offseason, we have seen whole lot of big money contracts handed out.  In early December, Albert Pujols signed with the Angels for an eye-popping $240MM over ten years.  Some speculated that Prince Fielder might not get a deal on the same scale as suitors appeared to drop out but the slugger hooked up with the Tigers on a nine-year, $214MM deal.  This winter also brought significant paydays for Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Jonathan Papelbon, and others. 

However, there were also plenty of bargains to be had this offseason and so far we have seen nine players ink guaranteed deals worth less than $1MM in base pay.  Using MLBTR's Transaction Tracker, here's a look at some of the most payroll-friendly Major League signings of the 2011-12 offseason..

1. Chris Snyder: $850K with the Astros
2. Matt Treanor: $850K with the Dodgers
3. Joel Zumaya: $800K with the Twins
4. Adam Kennedy: $800K with the Dodgers
5. Brian Schneider: $800K with the Phillies
6. Clay Hensley: $750K with the Giants
7. J.C. Romero: $750K with the Cardinals
8. Jack Cust: $600K with the Astros
9. Andrew Brackman: $480K with the Reds

This marks Treanor's second consecutive induction into the Six-Figure Contract Club as he re-upped with the Rangers on an $850K guaranteed deal last year.  Each deal listed is for one year but the contracts of Treanor, Snyder, and Cust all include options for the 2013 season.  With Spring Training just around the corner and several big vets still remaining on the open market, we're sure to see some high-profile inductees added to this list.

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As the 2011-12 offseason concludes, next winter's market becomes easier to anticipate, since team needs are clearer and the 2012-13 free agent list is taking shape. The Nationals agreed to terms with Edwin Jackson on a one-year deal yesterday and Roy Oswalt is expected to sign a one-year deal of his own before long, so both right-handers will likely reappear on the free agent market a year from now. 

Four All-Star caliber starters are projected to join them: left-hander Cole Hamels and right-handers Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Anibal Sanchez. Jackson, Hamels, Greinke, Cain and Sanchez each contributed at least 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011 and they're all 27 or 28 years old. If they continue pitching at an All-Star level in 2012, they'll be candidates for substantial long-term deals in free agency.

Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Guthrie, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy and others add depth to the projected free agent market. Some of those pitchers could position themselves for multiyear deals with strong seasons, while others will end up signing one-year contracts.

Keep in mind that this isn't a final look at the starting pitching market. Last year four starters signed extensions between the beginning of February and the end of April, as MLBTR's Exension Tracker shows. Some of the starters listed above will likely sign multiyear deals and weaken the projected 2013 free agent class in the process.

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The offseason is far from over, with extensions on the horizon, dozens of unresolved arbitration cases, and players like Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt and Yoenis Cespedes remaining on the free agent market. But if recent history is any indication, there’s not much reason to expect franchise-altering trades in the next six weeks. 

Last year, the biggest name dealt between the beginning of February and the middle of March was Aaron Laffey, as our Transaction Tracker shows. The year before saw an early February deal involving Willy Taveras, Aaron Miles and Adam Rosales, but not much else. In 2009, the February 1st to March 15th window featured a Michael Wuertz trade during a similarly quiet period. 

Back in 2008, however, months of rumors and speculation ended when Erik Bedard and Johan Santana were involved in early February blockbusters. There’s some history of major trades involving top starting pitchers, but the Matt Garza rumors have quieted down in recent weeks, and a significant deal doesn’t seem likely this month.

Why the calm six-week stretch from the beginning of February to the middle of March? Teams want to see what they have in their own camps before calling around for outside help. Plus, general managers are less likely to inquire about trades before injury concerns emerge during Spring Training. The quiet period should end toward the end of March, when out of options players who haven’t earned roster spots become available and a mini-flurry of deals takes place.