Uncategorized News & Rumors

An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

• If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
• If you're an iPhone user, be sure to pick up our app for the latest news and rumors. MLBTR just introduced an Android app as well.
• If you want only the hard news in the form of transactions, our transactions page is the ticket.  You can also get only the transactions via Twitter or RSS. 
• To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
• The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
• The Contact button takes you to a page where you can write an email message to the MLBTR writers.  If you have a link to a rumor we've missed, please send it in through the Contact page!  Also use the Contact page to inquire about advertising on MLBTR.
• The Archives dropdown shows you 15 months worth.  If you need to go back further, click on Site Map at the very bottom of the page.  Site Map also lists out every MLBTR post category, including players, teams, and features.
• The Tools dropdown takes you to a number of different places. The MLBTR Widget allows website owners to easily add a constantly updated box with all of MLBTR's headlines to their sites.
• Also under the tools tab is our Transaction Tracker, which enables you to search about anything and everything to do with baseball trades, signings and extensions. 
• Under the tools tab, you'll find a link to our Forums, a message board community of MLBTR readers with over 9,100 members.  You can discuss any baseball-related topic on the Forums, and start your own thread too.
• MLBTR's Agency Database lets you know which agencies represent which players. It's searchable by team, agency or player, so be sure to check it out.
• Feeds By Team is a very useful dropdown.  Hover over it to see all 30 teams.  Click on the team name to bring up a page of every post containing information about that team, with the latest on top.  These are the same pages you'll find if you go to the Rumors By Team section on the sidebar and select A's Rumors, Angels Rumors, etc.  
• Also under the Feeds By Team dropdown, you'll find RSS and Twitter buttons.  Those links allow you to follow a single team's rumors via RSS or Twitter.  Did you know we have a separate Twitter account for each of the 30 teams?  For example you can follow @mlbtrtigers, where you would get the latest Tigers updates.
• You can also follow Tim Dierkes and Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter for more MLBTR content.
• On the far right of the Navigation bar, you'll see buttons for Twitter, Facebook, and RSS.  MLBTR has over 150,000 Twitter followers, over 52,000 Facebook fans, and over 53,000 RSS subscribers.  Sign up for these and you'll be the first to receive all of our posts.
• Be sure to check out your favorite team's MLBTR page on Facebook so you can receive and comment on the latest rumors.
• On to the sidebar.  It begins with a list of our Top Stories, which our writers update any time major hard news occurs.  Go here for a quick update on the most important stories.  Below that is the site's Search Box, where you can type in any player's name and get the latest on him. 
• MLBTR Features has all kinds of goodies, including our free agent lists, non-tender candidate and projected arbitration salaries.  Many of the MLBTR Features are constantly updated by our writers, so be assured that our free agent lists are always fresh. 
• Below Features you've got headlines for all the Recent Posts, in case you'd rather not scroll to see all the headlines.  Then there's a box for our Mailing List, where you can sign up to receive a daily email containing MLBTR's posts.  Use this option if you don't need the news as soon as possible.
• Next we have Featured Posts, where you'll find original work from MLBTR writers we consider noteworthy.  For example, read about the worst extensions from two offseasons ago.

After accepting Boston's arbitration offer this winter, David Ortiz submitted a $16.5MM salary figure for 2012 against the team's $12.65MM.  They ended up settling at the midpoint recently.  Ortiz's $14.575MM salary will not be possible for a free agent accepting arbitration after the 2012 season, however, because the new collective bargaining agreement simplified the process.  Draft pick compensation for a departing free agent will require the team to make a "qualifying offer" in the $12-13MM range.  The qualifying offer amount will be determined by averaging the top 125 salaries from 2011.  This offer will be fixed each offseason, even for players already earning more than the qualifying offer amount, MLB told me today.

Though 2011 salaries are used for the 2012 qualifying offer (which reflects the player's potential 2013 salary), MLB does not seem to know the exact amount, so we'll use $12.5MM as a proxy for now.  For elite free agents, a qualifying offer will be a lock, as will their decision to turn it down.  The locks for 2012 appear limited to starting pitchers: Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Greinke.  A look at the more borderline potential free agents from the 2012-13 class follows.

Read more

One week ago I proudly announced the newest site in our network, Hoops Rumors.  If you're an NBA fan and you enjoy our transaction-related coverage, please check it out.

Approximately 196 players were eligible for arbitration when the offseason began, but as our Arbitration Tracker shows, just eight remain unsigned as of today. Here's the latest on those players…

• David Ortiz, Red Sox – Filed for $16.5MM, team countered with $12.65MM. Ortiz is still hoping to work out a multiyear deal before a hearing.
• Mike Napoli, Rangers – Filed for $11.5MM, team countered with $8.3MM. Napoli's hearing is scheduled for Wednesday, and the two sides are focusing on a one-year deal before looking long-term.
• Adam Jones, Orioles – Filed for $7.4MM, team countered with $5MM. A hearing is scheduled for Friday, but there is a sense that they could settle before then.
• Casey McGehee, Pirates – Filed for $2.725MM, team countered with $2.35MM. The two sides are still negotiating, but a hearing is scheduled for Thursday.
• Garrett Jones, Pirates – Filed for $2.5MM, team countered with $2.25MM. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained how his case is linked to McGehee's earlier this month.
• Jose Veras, Brewers – Filed for $2.375MM, team countered with $2MM. There has been no progress in talks and the club expects a hearing.
• Casey Janssen, Blue Jays – Filed for $2.2MM, team countered with $1.8MM. There has been no update on the right-hander's status.
• Alexi Casilla, Twins – Filed for $1.75MM, team countered with $1.065MM. We haven't heard much about Casilla this offseason.

There's lots of fantasy baseball content at MLBTR's sister site, RotoAuthority.com. Here are some recent highlights… 

• Steve Adams is now chatting about all things fantasy baseball, so head over to RotoAuthority and send him your questions.
• Tom Warman suggests Matt Wieters, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Alexei Ramirez and Jason Heyward are among the underrated hitters who could help you win your league in 2012.
• Mike Axisa ranks this year's shortstops and Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes lead the way. Mike's fourth-ranked shortstop might surprise some people.
• Edwin Van Bibber-Orr explains why Michael Morse will be a valuable fantasy pickup in 2012.
• Dan Mennella explains why Jhonny Peralta is a buy-low option and why it might be worth resisting the urge to draft Johnny Cueto early on.

Major League teams have agreed to 20 offseason extensions so far this winter, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Nine of those extensions — almost half of them — didn't extend the teams' control over the players with options or additional guaranteed years. Here's a closer look (click on team names for MLBTR's post on each extension):

Deals Covering Two Remaining Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

• Tim Lincecum, Giants
• Nelson Cruz, Rangers
• Michael Morse, Nationals
• Nick Masset, Reds
• Tony Gwynn Jr., Dodgers

Deals Covering First Two Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
• Jose Arredondo, Reds

Deals Covering Three Arbitration Seasons

• Pablo Sandoval, Giants
• Elvis Andrus, Rangers - more on Andrus' deal here

Teams generally covet club options, and some teams, such as the Rays, have made a habit of obtaining multiple options on most or all extensions. Other clubs, such as the Red Sox, have insisted that extensions buy out at least one season of free agent eligibility.

Four teams — the Giants, Dodgers, Reds and Rangers — are responsible for eight of the nine offseason extensions that don't extend team control over the player. Those clubs accepted the risk that the players will suffer injuries or perform poorly in exchange for the possibility that they'll meet or exceed expectations on the field and turn out to be bargains.

Deals that don't buy out free agent years and don't include club options can turn out well for the teams, of course. They cap costs and avoid the rarely-pleasant arbitration process. For elite players like Lincecum and Kershaw, the savings could be substantial in 2013. However, the upside is generally limited for teams that commit to multiyear deals without extending club control.

Some franchises have had tremendous success locking up star players to team-friendly extensions early on in their careers. The deals are an integral part of the current Rays teams, and they figured prominently into John Hart’s model for the 1990s Indians. 

But not all early-career extensions are team friendly, even if they first seem shrewd. Teams couldn’t make Mo Vaughn-sized mistakes on players with one or two years of service time if they tried to, but the moves can and do backfire on a more modest scale. 

MLBTR's Extension Tracker lists all the extensions signed by players with less than two years of service time since 2009. I’ve compared these contracts to how the players' earnings might look if they had gone year to year instead of signing long-term (click on the team names for MLBTR posts for each extension):

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies – Even though Jimenez is coming off of an up-and-down 2011 season, his deal is a team-friendly one. If he hadn't signed, Jimenez would have been arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2010 season. The combination of his sparkling platform season and strong career numbers would have set Jimenez up for a potentially record-setting 2011 salary of $4.4MM or more followed by a raise for the 2012 season. Instead, he earned $2.8MM last year and will earn just $4.2MM in 2012. There's no denying Jimenez struggled last year, but this extension saved his teams money.

Denard Span, Twins – Before signing his deal, Span had a career OPS of .811 in 1087 plate appearances. Since the contract, he has a .682 OPS in 1016 plate appearances. I estimate he'd be in line for a salary in the $2-2.5MM range if he had gone to arbitration as a first-time eligible player this offseason. Instead, he'll earn $3MM in 2012 with generous raises on the way for 2013-14.

Brett Anderson, Athletics – Anderson (pictured) would have been arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason if he hadn't signed his extension. The lefty missed the second half of the 2011 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and will earn $3.25MM in 2012. If he hadn't signed an extension, his salary would have been lower, likely in the $2-3MM range. This deal could pay off later, since the A's have a club option for one of Anderson's free agent seasons.

Ricky Romero, Blue Jays – Romero would have been arbitration eligible this offseason and his numbers would likely have placed his 2012 salary in the $4MM range if he hadn’t signed an extension. Romero will earn $5MM in 2012, so the Blue Jays’ savings will start in 2013 or 2014, when the left-hander earns $7.5MM per year. The deal couldn't be going much better for either side at this point.

Wade Davis, Rays – Davis wouldn't yet be arbitration eligible even if he hadn't signed his contract last offseason. So far the Rays' investment looks fair, but unspectacular. Davis pitched 184 solid innings last year and would be well on his way to a 2013 salary in the $3MM range. Instead, he'll earn $2.8MM next year.

Jose Tabata, Pirates – Tabata has only played a partial season since signing his deal, so it’s too early to assess its success.

Matt Moore, Rays – Moore has thrown all of 304 pitches at the Major League level (postseason included). We’ll have a better sense of how his deal is going a year from now.

Extensions are about risk management for both the player and the team. It’s understandable for players like Evan Longoria to seek guaranteed money early in their careers, just as it’s understandable for teams to cap costs on players who seem headed for certain stardom. Some deals work out considerably better than others, though, and the lesson here is that early-career extensions are far from a sure thing for teams.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

We are proud to announce our new NBA rumors site, Hoops Rumors!  Luke Adams and his team of NBA fanatics are covering rumors and transactions 365 days a year with the style, timeliness, and analysis you've come to love on MLBTR.  The team has been quietly covering all the latest for the past week, so there is plenty of reading material. 

The NBA trade deadline is just over a month away, so head over to Hoops Rumors to get the latest trustworthy information from around the web on Dwight Howard, Chris Kaman, Stephen Jackson and more.  If you like what you see, please bookmark the site, follow us on Twitter, and like us on Facebook.

Less than a month ago, 142 MLB players filed for salary arbitration. Today, just 16 of those players remain unsigned, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. I've discussed many of these cases with team executives or agents to get a sense of the players' value. Here are the ten most prominent cases remaining (sorted by the midpoint between team and player submissions):

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox ($14.575MM midpoint) – Unlike most of the players on this list, Ortiz will be compared to free agents if he goes to a hearing with the Red Sox. This part of the arbitration process isn’t quite as well defined as it is for players with less than six years of service, and the relative uncertainty may have contributed to the spread of nearly $4MM. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald recently asked arbitration expert Tal Smith about the case and suggested Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez and Paul Konerko are possible comps. 

2. Mike Napoli, Rangers ($9.9MM midpoint) – Napoli put together a tremendous regular season and punctuated it with three postseason home runs. He's looking for a salary of $11.5MM and could argue that the length and consistency of his career contribution puts him in Andre Ethier ($10.95MM) territory. Meanwhile, the Rangers may point to Hunter Pence's recent $3.5MM raise and argue that Napoli should obtain a relatively modest boost from his 2011 salary of $5.8MM.

3. Nelson Cruz, Rangers ($6.5MM midpoint) – Cruz (pictured) is linked to Adam Jones this year, since their numbers and salary demands are comparable. Expect Cruz, the 2011 ALCS MVP, to earn more in 2012.

4. Adam Jones, Orioles ($6.2MM midpoint) – Jones and his representatives at CAA will argue that the center fielder has earned a salary of $7.4MM salary after another stellar season in Baltimore. The Orioles will argue the demand for a $4.15MM raise is unreasonable and they could point to recent raises Adam LaRoche (after 2007), Delmon Young (after 2010), Cody Ross (after 2010), Napoli (after 2010) and Miguel Montero (after 2011) in an attempt to keep Jones below the midpoint.

5. Alex Gordon, Royals ($4.8MM midpoint) – The Royals explored the possibility of a long-term deal earlier in the offseason and are now nearing a one-year deal. Should the sides go to a hearing, the Royals could point to Gordon’s history of inconsistency, while agent Casey Close could build his case around Gordon's strong 2011 platform season.

6. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians ($4.475MM midpoint) – The Indians are discussing a multiyear deal with Cabrera, who could be in line for an extension in the four-year, $27MM range.

7. Elvis Andrus, Rangers ($3.125MM midpoint) – Power pays in arbitration and Andrus is anything but a power hitter. However, he's looking at a salary in the $3MM range thanks to three full seasons of 145-plus games and additional contributions in the postseason. It might also make sense for the sides to explore a multiyear deal.

8. Casey McGehee, Pirates ($2.538MM midpoint) – McGehee and teammate Garrett Jones are linked via arbitration, as I explained last week.

9. Garrett Jones, Pirates ($2.375MM midpoint) – Recent first-time eligible position players such as Seth Smith ($2.415MM), Colby Rasmus ($2.7MM), Ian Stewart ($2.229MM) and David Murphy ($2.4MM) could figure in to discussions for McGehee and Jones as well.

10. Jose Veras, Brewers ($2.19MM midpoint) – Veras, who was traded for McGehee earlier this offseason, has already been non-tendered twice. He's now going through the arbitration process for the first time, and has 318 respectable career innings and a strong platform season to his name.

For more on salary arbitration in baseball check out MLBTR’s arbitration resources. Photo courtesy Icon SMI.