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When Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel to end Game Three of the NLDS tonight, the Cardinals officially went into offseason mode, turning their eyes towards 2010. The team has several impending free agents, including Ankiel, Mark DeRosa, Matt Holliday, Troy Glaus, Khalil Greene, Jason LaRue, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz, and Todd Wellemeyer, while Ryan Ludwick and Skip Shumaker figure to get considerable raises through arbitration. Holliday projects to be a Type-A free agent, DeRosa and Pineiro come in as Type-B's.

St. Louis has an excellent core in place with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, and, of course, Albert Pujols, so the pieces are there. After finishing seventh in the NL with 730 runs scored and third with 640 runs allowed this year, what do you think the Cardinals need to do this winter to improve their team for next season?

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All the data is in for Eddie Bajek's Elias Ranking projections.  There may be a few errors to clean up but we'll take a look at the tentative rankings anyway.  The projected Type B free agents (asterisk denotes an option):

Garret Anderson
Rod Barajas
Erik Bedard
Joe Beimel
Ron Belliard
Adrian Beltre
Doug Brocail*
Marlon Byrd
Kiko Calero
Mike Cameron
Carl Crawford*
Doug Davis
Carlos Delgado
Justin Duchscherer
Scott Eyre
Pedro Feliz*
Chone Figgins
Jon Garland*
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Rich Harden
Ramon Hernandez*
Bob Howry
Aubrey Huff
Nick Johnson
Randy Johnson
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Adam LaRoche
Braden Looper*
Brandon Lyon
Jason Marquis
Hideki Matsui
Melvin Mora*
Guillermo Mota
Xavier Nady
Will Ohman*
Miguel Olivo*
Vicente Padilla*
Chan Ho Park
Carl Pavano
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Fernando Rodney
Ivan Rodriguez
Brian Schneider
Gary Sheffield
Brian Shouse*
Russ Springer
Jason Varitek*
Tim Wakefield*
Dave Weathers*
Brandon Webb*
Randy Winn
Gregg Zaun*

The biggest beneficiary of Type B status is Figgins, who was due an arbitration offer from the Angels whether he's A or B.  If his B ranking holds up, he'll be more attractive to other teams since he won't cost a draft pick.  Byrd, Nick Johnson, Marquis, Pavano, Pineiro, and Rodney seem like strong candidates to be offered arbitration.

When a Type B free agent is offered arbitration, turns it down, and signs elsewhere, the losing team does get one draft pick.  The pick does not come from the signing team; it is instead inserted into a supplemental round.  The Reds (Jeremy Affeldt), Rangers (Milton Bradley), Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon), Twins (Dennys Reyes), Brewers (Brian Shouse), and Angels (Jon Garland) were compensated with draft picks for Type B losses last year.

Eddie will take a final pass-through before signing off on his projected Elias Rankings, but all 2008-09 regular season data is included in the latest update.  Here's a list of the 31 free agents projected to have Type A status (an asterisk denotes an option):

Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt*
Orlando Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Mark DeRosa
Octavio Dotel
Jermaine Dye*
Brian Giles
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Kevin Gregg
Vladimir Guerrero
LaTroy Hawkins
Matt Holliday
Orlando Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee*
Victor Martinez*
Bengie Molina
Darren Oliver
Placido Polanco
Manny Ramirez*
Marco Scutaro
Rafael Soriano
Miguel Tejada
Jose Valverde
Billy Wagner*
Randy Wolf

We can remove Cabrera because he cannot contractually be offered arbitration, and we can assume the options for Lee and Martinez will be exercised.  That leaves 27 players. 

For the player, Type A status can be dangerous.  If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration and declines, his new team has to give up a draft pick to sign him.  The following teams would have to give up their first-round pick in 2010 if they sign a Type A free agent from another team who was offered and turned down arbitration: the Rays (#17), Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.  The teams not listed would have to give up their second-round pick. 

If Holliday and Lackey sign with new clubs, those teams will presumably feel that the draft pick cost is acceptable.  Beyond those two, the cost might be prohibitive, as it was with Jason Varitek and others last offseason.  Last year, the Dodgers (Orlando Hudson), Mets (Francisco Rodriguez), Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Phillies (Raul Ibanez), and Angels (Brian Fuentes) were willing to surrender first-round picks.

Last winter's events might lead to a game of cat and mouse between players and teams this time around - teams will be less inclined to offer arbitration to their Type A free agents out of concern that those players will be more inclined to accept.  If a player accepts arbitration, he's under that team's control for 2010 and the two parties will go to a hearing if they can't agree on a salary.

Unless you've just started following baseball, as in today, you know that Phillies closer Brad Lidge isn't just in the middle of a bad year, but a historically bad year. His 7.48 ERA is the highest in history for a pitcher with 30+ saves, eclipsing Shawn Chacon's 7.11 mark back in 2004. Depending on who you ask, Lidge either still is or no longer is the Phillies closer, and with the playoffs less than two weeks away, the team has a pretty significant decision to make.

The once mighty Lidge has blown a Major League worst 11 saves on the year, and his peripherals have all declined precipitously across the board. With $24.5MM left on his contract over the next two years, the defending World Champs have to hope he's just experiencing a hangover year following a deep run into the postseason. Luckily, they have a top notch setup man in Ryan Madson to fall back on.

Barring a miraculous rebound in the postseason, the Phillies will start the 2010 season with a major question mark at the back of the bullpen. Do you think the Phightin's should look into adding another end game reliever this offseason? The free agent pool features plenty of relievers with closer experience, but will Philly pony up for another top notch closer?

Look no further than the Toronto Blue Jays or the Chicago Cubs to see the kind of franchise-changing effect a bad contract can have on an organization. Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells both signed nine-figure deals that their clubs must be regretting. Though the free agent market was depressed last winter, we saw teams commit to some massive deals.

There doesn't appear to be a Barry Zito–esque clunker among them, but some teams still overspent. Now that the regular season is only ten days away from completion, we have nearly an entire season's worth of information to help decide which move was the worst. (We won't really know how good or bad these deals are until they expire, of course, so we'll simply use the information we have so far.)

If you check out MLBTR's list of last winter's 20 biggest moves, you'll find that last offseason's most lucrative deals appear to have worked out. Where would the Yankees be without Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett? Ryan Dempster pitched well for the Cubs and Derek Lowe and Manny Ramirez added value to their respective clubs. But not every signing looks good. Here are some candidates for last winter's worst free agent signing:

• Oliver Perez - $36MM over three years - He allowed 51 runs in 66 innings for an ugly 6.82 ERA. Knee injuries shortened his season, but he still managed to walk 58 batters, almost one per frame.
• Milton Bradley - $30MM over three years - The volatile outfielder saw his OPS tumble by over 200 points this year. His off-field antics led to a suspension and the Cubs will now try to find a taker for the 31-year-old.
• Edgar Renteria - $18.5MM over two years, plus club option - Those who criticized the Giants for this deal appear to have been justified. Renteria hit just .250/.307/.328 and didn't play good enough defense to make up for his struggles at the plate.
• Jamie Moyer - $16MM over two years - To his credit, Moyer pitched over 150 innings for the defending champs. Still, do the Phils want to pay a hittable 47-year-old $8MM next year? Probably not.
• Pat Burrell – $16MM over two years – It's one thing for the Phillies to mis-spend, but the Rays don't have money to throw around. Andrew Friedman envisioned more than a .382 slugging percentage when he signed Burrell last winter.

So which of these contracts is the worst one? Was $161MM too much for a pitcher? Will Derek Lowe wear down? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments section.

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Last winter's biggest storylines involved Jake Peavy, Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Junichi Tazawa, and Rafael Furcal.  What will MLBTR be buzzing about this offseason?

• Aroldis Chapman, a 21 year-old Cuban defector, is expected to become a free agent in a few weeks.  The hard-throwing lefty may inspire a good old-fashioned Red Sox-Yankees bidding war, with the price beginning around $40MM.  Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano is another hot topic – is he really 16?
• Will Scott Boras secure a $100MM contract for left fielder Matt Holliday?  At this point it's unclear which teams would be open to such a commitment, but the Cardinals will try to lock him up.  Jason Bay, also a free agent, is more than a year older than Holliday.  How will his contract compare?
• Would Manny Ramirez, another Boras client, dare turn down his $20MM player option?  He's had a typical Manny season aside from a 50-game suspension for use of a banned substance.
• Will the Mets reduce payroll for 2010, despite multiple needs?  How will the Rangers sale play out?  Will the Cubs' new ownership be willing to spend? 
• The Angels have many prominent free agents, including Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, and Bobby Abreu.  Lackey is the best available pitcher; will he command Burnett money?
• Joe Mauer's contract is up after the 2010 season, which is also the inaugural year for the Twins' new ballpark.  Will the team pony up a massive extension for the MVP candidate?
• Roy Halladay figures to be a regular presence in the rumor mill, after the Blue Jays shopped him this summer.  Other trade candidates include Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, Javier Vazquez, and Milton Bradley.
• Free agent bargains such as Bobby Abreu and Randy Wolf didn't sign until February last time around.  Will teams be more inclined to play the waiting game?
• The NL West has three free agent GMs: Dan O'Dowd, Brian Sabean, and Ned Colletti (mutual option).
• Thanks to the MLBTR writing staff and our Twitter followers for many of these storylines.

Recently we posted a list of players who will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season.  Certain rebuilding clubs may look to save money this winter and instead spend it the following offseason.  Those clubs will probably have a better crop of free agents from which to choose.  Let's look at the big names projected to be available a year from now.

• Players with options for 2010 will not be added to the 2011 list until those decisions are made.  The following players may have their options exercised within a few months: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Freddy Garcia, Cliff Lee, Braden Looper, and Brandon Webb.  Assuming these players are not extended, we can pencil them in for the 2011 free agent list.
• Of course, any player who signs a one-year deal this winter will be a free agent again after the 2010 season.  Players such as Carlos Delgado, Adrian Beltre, Rick Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Erik Bedard, and Justin Duchscherer are candidates.
• Aside from those who fit the criteria above, the biggest names headed toward free agency after the 2010 season are Joe Mauer, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, Derek Jeter, Aramis Ramirez (player option), Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Josh Beckett, Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez, Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera, and Huston Street.  Keep in mind that some of these players will have their contracts extended before reaching free agency.
• Aside from Carlos Pena and those who receive one-year deals this winter (Manny among them), Scott Boras' crop does not look impressive.  He's got Gerald Laird, Willie Bloomquist, Kevin Millwood, Bobby Seay, and possibly Magglio Ordonez.
• Shortstops Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins both have affordable club options for 2011.  If exercised but not extended, they'd both be free agents after '11.  Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jonathan Broxton could also be part of that 2012 class.

This year's crop of free agents isn't the sexiest collection of names we've seen, but Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are two bonafide stars that will be available to the highest bidder. Several teams will be looking for middle-of-the-order run producers, so there will be no shortage of suitors for this pair.

Let's take a second to quickly compare the two outfielders, starting with Holliday…

• Represented by Scott Boras, but has expressed an interest in signing an extension with the Cardinals.
• Will turn 30 in January.
• Hitting .356/.407/.654 with St. Louis after .286/.378/.454 with Oakland.
• Career .318/.386/.547 hitter with double-digit steals annually, but just .289/.359/.476 outside of Coors Field.
• Has a +2.1 UZR/150 in left this year, down from +10.9 last year and +14.7 the year before.
• Making $13.5MM in 2009, plus possible bonuses. FanGraphs values his performance at $22.8M.

And now for Bay…

• Represented by Joe Urbon of CAA, who also represents Grady Sizemore, among others.
• Talks about a contract extension have been put on hold until after the season.
• Turns 31 tomorrow.
• Hitting .274/.382/.540 in his Red Sox career, right in line with his .280/.377/.522 career mark.
• Double digit steals in four of the last five years.
• Left field defense rates a -13.8 UZR/150, which is actually an improvement over last year's -18.2 mark. In 2007 it was -11.4.
• Making $7.5MM this season, but FanGraphs says he's actually been worth $12MM overall.

Earlier this week SI.com's Jon Heyman spoke to an agent who thought that Holliday and Bay could pull down identical seven-year, $147MM contracts this offseason, although an unnamed GM guessed that Bay would get $15MM per season. A $147MM contract would be the 8th most lucrative deal in baseball history, and frankly it seems pretty astronomical for either player.

What kind of contract do the readers of MLBTR think Holliday and Bay will walk away with? Which player would you rather have for the long term?