Uncategorized News & Rumors

With the World Series set to finish up this week, the month of November promises plenty of hot stove activity. As October comes to a close, let's turn back the calendar a year and take a look at November 2008 to get an idea of what kind of action we can expect in 2009.

• Tim kicked off the month by posting MLBTR's top 50 free agents of the offseason. Scrolling through the list with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to spot plenty of surprises. And who knew then that the Yankees would end up with three of our top five free agents?
• A.J. Burnett opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays early in November, but had yet to sign by the end of the month. He was waiting on a five-year offer that he eventually got from the Yankees.
• It looked like the St. Louis Cardinals were the frontrunners to acquire Matt Holliday, but, in a surprise move, it was the Oakland A's that dealt for the outfielder. Of course, it was a brief stay in Oakland for Holliday, who ended up in St. Louis a few months later.
• The Houston Astros signed LaTroy Hawkins, who turned out to be a key piece in their bullpen. He cut his 2008 ERA nearly in half in 2009. Jeremy Affeldt did the same thing for the San Francisco Giants, who signed him to a two-year deal in November.
• The Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the White Sox, in a deal that looked lopsided then and looks even more lopsided a year later.
• The Florida Marlins made a few moves, including trading Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals. They also dealt Kevin Gregg to the Cubs, signaling the end of the Kerry Wood era in Chicago.
• Mike Mussina announced his retirement, while Greg Maddux looked likely to call it quits too. Maddux officially announced his retirement in early December, and I have to admit that I missed watching him pitch this season.
• The Yankees made a big offer to C.C. Sabathia, but not as big as the one he later accepted from them. By the end of the month, the Angels had emerged as players for C.C. as well. It's easy to forget that the Angels were heavily involved in both the Mark Teixeira and Sabathia talks, before losing out on both to New York.
• After winning the World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies got some bad news, learning that Chase Utley would miss 4-6 months following hip surgery. Utley ended up making a speedy recovery from the surgery, returning for Opening Day 2009.
• The Kansas City Royals acquired outfielder Coco Crisp from the Boston Red Sox.
• Rumors that didn't pan out? There were quite a few, including Casey Blake to the Twins, Mark Teahen to the Cubs, and Andy Pettitte to the Dodgers.

Any early predictions for what we might see this November?

Got a bad contract on your hands?  Maybe you can swap it for another team's problem.  I'll list the bad contracts, you connect the dots.

• Vernon Wells, Blue Jays - five years, $98.5MM
• Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – five years, $90MM
• Barry Zito, Giants – four years, $83MM
• Alex Rios, White Sox – five years, $59.7MM
• Travis Hafner, Indians – three years, $40.25MM
• Aaron Rowand, Giants – three years, $36MM
• Carlos Guillen, Tigers – two years, $26MM
• Carlos Silva, Mariners – two years, $25MM
• Francisco Cordero, Reds – two years, $25MM
• Oliver Perez, Mets – two years, $24MM
• Gary Matthews Jr., Angels - two years, $23MM
• Milton Bradley, Cubs – two years, $21MM
• Juan Pierre, Dodgers – two years, $18.5MM
• Jeff Suppan, Brewers – one year, $14.5MM
• David Ortiz, Red Sox – one year, $12.5MM
• Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers – one year, $12.5MM
• Jose Guillen, Royals – one year, $12MM
• Eric Chavez, Athletics – one year, $12MM
• Dontrelle Willis, Tigers – one year, $12MM
• Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks – one year, $11MM
• Fausto Carmona, Indians – two years, $11MM
• Scott Linebrink, White Sox – two years, $10.5MM
• Nate Robertson, Tigers – one year, $10MM
• Edgar Renteria, Giants – one year, $9.5MM
• Pat Burrell, Rays – one year, $9MM
• Kei Igawa, Yankees – two years $8MM
• Jeff Francis, Rockies - one year, $5.75MM
• Kyle Farnsworth, Royals – one year, $5MM
• Willy Taveras, Reds – one year, $4MM
• Aaron Miles, Cubs – one year, $2.7MM
• Honorable mentions: Michael Young (4/64, some deferred), Carlos Lee (3/55.5), Derek Lowe (3/45), Todd Helton (2/40.3), Kyle Lohse (3/32.625), Magglio Ordonez (1/18, possible vesting option), Mike Lowell (1/12), Chris Snyder (2/11.25), Cristian Guzman (1/8), Jamie Moyer (1/7.5), Kaz Matsui (1/5)

We've already discussed what four teams – the Red Sox, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies – should do this offseason to improve themselves after being eliminated from the postseason, but we never touched on the Twins.

Minnesota has a handful of players due to become a free agents, most notably Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Joe Crede, Mike Redmond, and Carl Pavano. Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano are all eligible for arbitration, and the team holds a $2.9MM club option ($100K buyout) on reliever Jon Rauch.

In addition to strengthening the roster, it would also behoove the team to, at the very least, begin discussions with Joe Mauer's camp about an extension this winter. What do you guys and gals think the Twins should do this offseason to make a run in the winnable AL Central next year?

Looking for free agent bats that can crush lefties?  Among those with 100 plate appearances against southpaws this year, here are your best bets, ranked by OBP:

• Nick Johnson – .440
• Mike Cameron – .420
• Matt Holliday – .405
• Jason Bay – .402
• Marco Scutaro – .389
• Jermaine Dye – .387
• Adrian Beltre – .384
• Gabe Kapler – .379
• Felipe Lopez – .379

They didn't make the OBP list, but Mark DeRosa, Bengie Molina, Gabe Kapler, and Jason Giambi showed good power (SLG) against lefties.

On the other hand, free agents Randy Winn, Hank Blalock, Alex Gonzalez, and Joe Crede struggled mightily against southpaws.

The hot stove season won't really pick up until next month, but we can still expect some developments soon if last year is any indication. Here's a look at what happened last year between mid-October and the end of the World Series:

• We heard about possible blockbusters, some of which happened (Matt Holliday) and some of which didn't (Prince Fielder, Magglio Ordonez).
• This year's equivalents: Fielder, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay and others.
• We saw teams make minor additions. For example, the White Sox signed Jayson Nix.
• The Angels picked up options on Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey.
• Victor Martinez and Carl Crawford are among the players whose 2010 options may be picked up soon.
• Players and teams began hinting at possible matches. A.J. Burnett's agent hinted that the righty would consider joining the Yankees and the Mets' interest in Francisco Rodriguez surfaced.
• Nick Markakis began discussing an extension with the O's. Could we see the Twins start extension talks with Joe Mauer this month?

On a slow news day, I thought it might be interesting to look through the MLBTR archives to see what was cooking on the hot stove a year ago.

• A.J. Burnett's agent Darek Braunecker said there would be no contract discussions with the Blue Jays until his client decided whether to opt out.  The Jays were said to be preparing a four-year, $54MM offer.  Even then it was obvious Burnett would opt out and get significantly more money.  He signed in December with the Yankees for five years and $82.5MM. 
• The Giants cut ties with Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, and Kevin Correia.  Several commenters believed they should've retained Correia, who went on to post a 3.91 ERA in 198 innings for the Padres for a mere $1.1MM.
• Jerry DiPoto was said to be among the front-runners for the Mariners GM job.  Instead, the Ms chose Jack Zduriencik a few weeks later.  Zduriencik acquired Franklin Gutierrez, Russell Branyan, and David Aardsma, among others.  DiPoto still works for the Diamondbacks, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says not to rule him out for the open Padres GM job.
• Asked about signing with the Mets, free agent Manny Ramirez talked repeatedly about how the ball doesn't carry well at Shea, despite being reminded the Mets were moving into a new stadium in 2009.  At that point we were still talking about a four or five-year deal for Manny worth $17-25MM per season.  Manny ultimately re-signed with the Dodgers in March for two years and $45MM.  His fine season was interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension.  Manny must decide next month on his $20MM player option for 2010.
• The Padres still had Kevin Towers and Jake Peavy a year ago.  At that time we were trying to decipher which teams Peavy was reportedly willing to play for.  After a winter of endless Cubs rumors, Towers struck a deal with the White Sox in May.  Peavy vetoed the trade, tore a tendon in his ankle, and later accepted another trade to the Sox at the July trade deadline.

Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a list of "the first wave of minor league free agents."  See anyone you like?

RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Josh Banks
3B Brian Barden
C Edwin Bellorin
RHP Kris Benson
1B Wilson Betemit
LHP Travis Blackley
RHP Bryan Bullington
LHP Brian Burres
RHP Vinnie Chulk
RHP R.A. Dickey
3B Joe Dillon
RHP Brandon Duckworth
OF Chris Duffy
RHP Geoff Geary
RHP Enrique Gonzalez
C Michel Hernandez
RHP Philip Humber
OF Mitch Jones
2B Matt Kata
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Shane Loux
RHP Edwin Moreno
RHP Joe Nelson
C Guillermo Quiroz
RHP Steven Register
LHP Royce Ring
RHP Connor Robertson
LHP Glendon Rusch
OF Jeff Salazar
C Dane Sardinha
RHP Chris Schroder
3B Chris Shelton
2B Jason Smith
3B Craig Stansberry
RHP Denny Stark
LHP R.J. Swindle
LHP Jon Switzer

Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a list of "the first wave of minor league free agents."  See anyone you like?

RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Josh Banks
3B Brian Barden
C Edwin Bellorin
RHP Kris Benson
1B Wilson Betemit
LHP Travis Blackley
RHP Bryan Bullington
LHP Brian Burres
RHP Vinnie Chulk
RHP R.A. Dickey
3B Joe Dillon
RHP Brandon Duckworth
OF Chris Duffy
RHP Geoff Geary
RHP Enrique Gonzalez
C Michel Hernandez
RHP Philip Humber
OF Mitch Jones
2B Matt Kata
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Shane Loux
RHP Edwin Moreno
RHP Joe Nelson
C Guillermo Quiroz
RHP Steven Register
LHP Royce Ring
RHP Connor Robertson
LHP Glendon Rusch
OF Jeff Salazar
C Dane Sardinha
RHP Chris Schroder
3B Chris Shelton
2B Jason Smith
3B Craig Stansberry
RHP Denny Stark
LHP R.J. Swindle
LHP Jon Switzer

For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player.  The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.  Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.

Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."  For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09.  (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).

Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration.  Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).

Locks to be offered arb:  Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf

Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro

Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero

Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration.  That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, this is all just one person's opinion.  Let me know where you feel differently.  Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).

For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player.  The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.  Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.

Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."  For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09.  (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).

Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration.  Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).

Locks to be offered arb:  Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf

Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro

Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero

Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration.  That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, this is all just one person's opinion.  Let me know where you feel differently.  Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).