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New-Age Stats

By Tim Dierkes | February 27, 2007 at 9:00pm CDT

Murray Chass has had enough.  Enough of Roger, Bernie, and A-Rod.  Me too, despite the generation gap between Chass and I.  Still, I know that 70 year-old guys and 25 year-old guys are going to have different takes on the game of baseball.  This is only logical.  But to create this divide between those who like stats and those who don’t is silly.  If I brought up VORP to my grandpa or the guys at work the baseball conversations would die pretty quickly.  There are many different ways to appreciate the game.

Chass, however, comes out firing against "new-age" statistics. Baseball Prospectus keeps its cool and would just like to talk. Meanwhile, Fire Joe Morgan shot back with the venom I was craving.

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Jon Heyman’s Latest

By Tim Dierkes | February 23, 2007 at 2:37pm CDT

Jon Heyman has a new Daily Scoop up over at SI.com.  Much of it is informed speculation, but it makes for an interesting read.  The highlights:

Heyman believes that Manny Ramirez’s recent antics could spark trade talks once again.  He names the Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, and Mariners as teams that have had past interest.  Heyman thinks the Red Sox and Rockies could re-engage talks regarding a Manny for Todd Helton trade.  The main issue, of course, would be money.

Heyman also thinks the Cubs will lock Carlos Zambrano up to a five-year deal worth $80-85MM.  I think that is the general feeling in Chicago as well.  Cubs fans are not panicking about losing their ace, yet.  Right now is a time for the typical unmatched Cubs fan optimism.  Prior’s throwing baseballs instead of towels and Wood actually pitched off a mound.

Apparently Billy Beane was asking for three top prospects for Dan Haren or Rich Harden.  He wanted three of Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez.  Two of ’em plus Aaron Heilman seems more reasonable, if the return is Haren.  I can’t shake the feeling that Harden is going to need Tommy John surgery within the next year or two.

The Red Sox could still give Curt Schilling a contract extension before the season starts if he looks good in spring games.

The Padres could cut Todd Walker, stomaching a $650K fee given the utility man’s arbitration win. 

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Gyro Mania

By Tim Dierkes | February 23, 2007 at 10:07am CDT

In the course of a couple of days, we’ve entered full-blown gyroball mania.  The pitch’s creator, Kazushi Tezuka, is on a spring training tour.  There are a lot of different takes on this pitch; let’s survey the field.

CubDumb believes that in the course of baseball history, many pitchers have already experimented with this type of pitch.

Yesterday, I linked to this Jeff Passan article.  Passan straightens things out by talking to Tezuka and throwing the pitch himself.  He also shows video of it to Barry Bonds.

Will Carroll teaches some variation of the pitch, which he says is quite different than the one taught to Passan.  He can teach his in 10 minutes.

Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson also talked to Tezuka and hopes to add it to his arsenal.  Crazy lefty.  It’s possible some other Ranger pitchers will pick it up too.

Bottom line is that the pitch appears to be a telegraphed changeup, which doesn’t seem terribly useful.

ESPN writer Patrick Hruby has been researching the pitch for months, and in the end seemed let down.

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Jeff Passan Tackles The Gyroball

By Tim Dierkes | February 22, 2007 at 8:55am CDT

Very cool article up from Jeff Passan, who has led the way as far as getting correct gyroball information to the United States.  Passan spoke to the pitch’s creator in depth, and even managed to throw one himself.

Passan observed that the pitch "looked like a fastball and moved like a fastball."  Apparently, though, it’s slightly different.  Pedro Martinez may have been throwing it without knowing it.

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Odds and Ends

By Tim Dierkes | February 21, 2007 at 3:19pm CDT

Drays Bay scored a big interview recently – they talked to possible 2007 #1 draft pick David Price.

Also, SethSpeaks has an interesting interview up with Twins reliever Pat Neshek.

Kevin Goldstein has his top 100 prospects list up at BP.  Look out for the Devil Rays.

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Looking For Some Help

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2007 at 1:24am CDT

I’m looking some help regarding my fantasy baseball guide.  Let me explain:

I sell a fantasy baseball guide; it’s in Excel format.  To make it smaller, I make it into a .zip file.  So far, I have just been sending the guide to each customer as an email attachment (it’s about 1.2 MB currently).  I’ve used an email service called BlueTie that allows for this; it’s worked OK so far.

Each week, I re-send the Guide to all customers with updates included.  So it is a weekly mass email of a 1.2 MB file to each person.  Issues: 

1. Some people have trouble receiving attachments via email.
2. The cool features I can add to the guide are limited since I need the file size to be small if it’s sent as an attachment.
3. I like the idea of hosting the file somewhere as a password-protected download, but have no idea how to do this and whether it’s affordable.  I assume I’d have to pay for bandwidth.
4. Everything has worked OK so far using BlueTie. However, BlueTie made a fatal error this evening by sending more than 10 of the same email to every customer! How can I make sure this never happens again?

If you can help me solve these IT-type issues, please email me at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com with your ideas.  I’ll pay you for this project, should it become a project.  Thanks.

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Rosenthal’s Latest

By Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2007 at 12:26am CDT

Ken Rosenthal has the latest buzz going around regarding various free agents and trade possibilities.  An overview:

The Braves might find Oscar Villarreal and/or Lance Cormier expendable if the rest of their pitchers remain healthy throughout the spring.  Stephania Bell, or Orthopedic Clinical Specialist, recently reported on Mike Hampton’s risk level in RotoWire’s fantasy magazine.  She lists him as a moderate risk, and views having 2006 off as a positive for him.  It gave him time to get healthy everywhere and strengthen muscles where needed.  Interestingly, Bell labels Bobby Crosby as low risk.

Rosenthal says Steve Finley’s only decent shot at starting would be if the Cubs trade Jacque Jones.  The 42 year-old Finley must decide whether to wait that situation out or sign elsewhere.  Jones recently said he never asked the Cubs for a trade.  He also volunteered to help out in center field if need be.

The Reds are the most likely destination for Dustin Hermanson, but Rosenthal quotes one exec saying he was only throwing 85-87 mph in his recent workout.  In a fantasy league, I’d still lean toward Bill Bray for saves in Cincy.

The Rangers have liked Texas native Kerry Wood for a while now, but the Cubs should have no motivation to trade him.  Wood recently recovered from his hot tub incident to throw ten pitches off a mound without trouble.   

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Bonds Contract Is Official

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2007 at 3:08pm CDT

Finally, Barry Bonds has an MLB-approved, signed contract.  It’s for $15.8MM with $4.2MM in "reachable" incentives.  As opposed to Ryan Dempster’s Cy Young clause.  That’s called an unreachable incentive.  RotoWorld says the indictment clause remains in the contract.

Bonds will be in camp on time, on Monday.  At AT&T Park, he’ll be a locker buddy with new acquisition Barry Zito, who requested to be next to him.

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Bonds Contract Is Official

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2007 at 3:08pm CDT

Finally, Barry Bonds has an MLB-approved, signed contract.  It’s for $15.8MM with $4.2MM in "reachable" incentives.  As opposed to Ryan Dempster’s Cy Young clause.  That’s called an unreachable incentive.  RotoWorld says the indictment clause remains in the contract.

Bonds will be in camp on time, on Monday.  At AT&T Park, he’ll be a locker buddy with new acquisition Barry Zito, who requested to be next to him.

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Spring Trade Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | February 11, 2007 at 6:33pm CDT

Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs down some trade candidates for this spring.  His list is fairly comprehensive.  A quick rundown:

Starters

Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, Mark Hendrickson, Brad Penny, Mike Maroth, Dan Haren

Relievers

Akinori Otsuka, Armando Benitez, Chad Cordero, Scott Linebrink

First Basemen

Todd Helton

Outfielders

Jacque Jones, Rocco Baldelli, Ryan Church, Adam Dunn, Chone Figgins, Jay Gibbons, Ryan Langerhans, Brady Clark, Geoff Jenkins, Kevin Mench, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro Suzuki

Excellent list.  How we expand it to summertime to consider some more trade candidates?  I have a hunch Kenny Williams will do his fair share of wheeling and dealing.  It would make sense to cash in Mark Buehrle for something good, as he seems unlikely to stay.  Jermaine Dye will be tougher to part with, but he too is an impending free agent.  Joe Crede will reach free agency after ’08, so there’s less urgency to send him packing.

As far as the whole trading off impending free agents idea, here are some possibilities: Mike Lowell, Michael Barrett, Jason LaRue, Ivan Rodriguez, Eric Byrnes, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Mike Sweeney, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Jake Westbrook.  Jones and Rodriguez have full no-trade clauses, however.  Sweeney and Hunter have partials. 

Anyone being pushed by a stud prospect?  Orlando Cabrera and Scott Hatteberg may feel the pressure, in addition to the aforementioned Crede and Jacque Jones.  Adam Miller could force his way into the Cleveland rotation, which could result in a trade of Westbrook, Paul Byrd, or Cliff Lee.

When should we expect some deals?  Nothing major happened in February of 2006.  The biggest deal of March ’06 was probably Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.  In April of last year, we saw deals for Brandon Phillips and David Dellucci.  All in all, expect just a handful a trades until we hit summertime.

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