MLBTR Podcast: Marlins’ Moves, Opt-Outs, And Outfielders
MLBTR’s Steve Adams joins host Jeff Todd to talk about a variety of topics. In a wide-ranging discussion, Steve and Jeff chatted about the Marlins’ extension of Dee Gordon and signing of Wei-Yin Chen, creative uses of opt-out clauses, and the still-developing free agent market for outfielders.
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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.
Alexei Bell Departs Cuba In Search Of MLB Deal
Yet another Cuban ballplayer has departed the island, as 32-year-old outfielder Alexei Bell has left in search of an opportunity in the majors, according to Jorge Ebro of Baseball de Cuba. Bell is preparing for a showcase in two or three weeks, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez adds.
Bell, a long-time mainstay on the national team, is said to have left Cuba legally. It’s unclear whether that will impact his clearance timeline in any way, but regardless, the first order of business for his representatives at DPX Sports will presumably be to obtain an official declaration of free agency. Bell will not be subject to international bonus restrictions due to his age and long experience in Cuba.
Starring with Santiago in Cuba’s Serie Nacional for many years, Bell compiled a robust .319/.417/.547 batting line in 3,441 career plate appearances. That made him one of the island nation’s most productive hitters. Notably, he has just eight more strikeouts (439) than he does walks (431) in that span, and didn’t end a Cuban campaign with more K’s than walks in a single season after 2008.
As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote this time last year, however, Bell has shown inconsistency at times with the Cuban national team. He does feature a plus arm and could fit in right field, said Badler.
Bell’s current status and major league prospects remain somewhat unclear, however. He spent the 2015 season with the Capitales of Quebec, in the Canadian-American Association, and the results weren’t all that promising. Over 241 plate appearances, Bell slashed .317/.363/.424 with two home runs (and an uncharacteristic 24:14 K:BB ratio).
Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Manny Machado has reached arbitration eligibility at the young age of 23, and has already put up solid numbers in his career, including a breakout year in 2015. Machado hit .286 this past year, which is not all that much better than the .278 career mark he had going in, but his 35 home runs more than doubled his career high. After Machado’s 51 doubles in 2013 suggested he would eventually show more power than the 14 home runs that accompanied them, injuries in 2014 limited him to 354 PA. As a result, Machado’s pre-platform performance and overall career numbers are not as strong as his platform year, which makes him somewhat of a tricky case. Few comparables cases present themselves, so although his $5.9 million projected salary seems plausible, it could easily miss by a lot.
Machado’s strong defense also makes his case trickier as well. Although my model has repeatedly shown that defense does not consistently affect arbitration cases, many of the hitters who could be considered comparables for Machado were far worse fielders, and this could certainly help him earn more than them. Just because the model does not prove the importance of any specific defensive statistic, that does not mean that defense never enters into a case—we know from firsthand reports that it does. Machado’s relatively low number of RBIs for a guy who hit 35 home runs also makes his case unique as well.
Perhaps the best comparable could be Chris Davis’ case three years ago, although nearly everything about Davis’ case is slightly worse. Davis hit .270 with 33 home runs and 85 RBIs, which is a near match of Machado’s .286/35/86 in his platform year. Davis also did not have many home runs pre-platform, so his career 77 home runs at the time are not much different than Machado’s 68. However, Davis’ career average of .258 is way below Machado’s .281. Davis also plays an easier defensive position than Machado. However, the Orioles could certainly try to argue that Machado should not out-earn Davis’ $3.3 million award by too much.
Although it was seven years ago, Ryan Ludwick’s case looks very similar to Machado’s when Ludwick earned $3.7 million in 2009. He hit .299/37/113 in his platform year and had .273/65/209 career numbers, and although Ludwick’s platform numbers were slightly better, Machado’s career .281/65/215 is extremely similar. The Orioles could try to argue that a little salary inflation on Ludwick’s $3.7 million would put Machado between $4 and $5 million.
If Machado wants to argue for a salary closer to his $5.9 million projection, one potential comparable that Machado could consider is Dan Uggla, who had 32 home runs and 92 RBIs in his platform year before reaching arbitration eligibility, and who received $5.3 million. However, this was back in 2009 and cases that old are rarely used. Uggla also only hit .260, although he did have 90 career home runs, far exceeding Machado’s 68.
Another possibility Machado could use to try to push his salary closer to his projection, who is more recent than Uggla, is Giancarlo Stanton’s case just two years ago. Although Machado could be a similar match in terms of stardom, Stanton’s injuries kept him to 504 PA in his platform year and only 24 home runs, while he hit .249. He did have 117 career home runs though. While he played a different position, Stanton could be considered a comparable. He earned $6.5 million in 2014. Like with Uggla, the difficulty for Machado if he tries to argue for Stanton as a comparable is that both Uggla and Stanton had many more career home runs than Machado does.
Other potential comparables that Machado could use are Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, and Pedro Alvarez, who all reached their first year of arbitration eligibility in the last couple years and earned $4.8, $4.175, and $4.25 million. They each hit between 34 and 37 home runs and between 88 to 100 RBIs in their platform year. Although they had more career home runs than Machado, ranging from 85 to 95 between them, their batting averages are much worse than Machado’s. They each hit between .227 and .233 in their platform year and between .222 and .250 in their careers. Machado could make the case that he had similar power to them, but a better average, so he deserves to have somewhere above $5 million.
It is difficult to find obvious cases where Machado exceeds his $5.9 million projection. There are a number of players with higher salaries who had similar platform years, but more home runs, while there are a couple of players who earned less money with career numbers that look similar to Machado, but whose cases are weaker in one way or another. Machado has a better batting average and defense than just about all of these players, including the players with more career home runs. However, I think Machado is probably likely to under-earn his projection.
A potential wild card that could come into play is a similar player who is also reaching his first year of eligibility this year, Nolan Arenado. With a similar breakout performance in 2015 along with strong defense at the same position, Arenado could easily help or hurt Machado’s case for arbitration this year if he reaches an agreement first.
MLBTR Podcast: Talking White Sox with Scott Merkin
MLBTR’s Jeff Todd runs down the latest from around the league before being joined by Scott Merkin of MLB.com to discuss his experience covering new Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. in his days with the White Sox as well as the outlook of the ChiSox after a disappointing 2015 season. Specifically, Jeff and Scott talk about the Sox’ philosophy, the potential of further additions to the roster and trade talks that have taken place between Chicago and Colorado.
Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.
The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.
Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Donaldson
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
The reigning Most Valuable Player of the American League enters his second year of arbitration eligibility due for a healthy raise on the $4.3MM he earned in his award-winning season. Josh Donaldson hit .297 with 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in 711 plate appearances, with an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger Award to add to his MVP honors.
It was the third baseman’s first year with the Blue Jays after a solid career in Oakland, and he certainly made a great impression on his new employers. Now, they will have to pay up in his second year of arbitration. Our model and several knowledgeable sources have confirmed that after the first year of arbitration eligibility, most players’ cases are treated as raises based almost exclusively on the previous year’s statistics. This helps explain why the model projects that Donaldson will receive a $7.7MM raise to a total of $12MM, which would be a record raise for a second-time eligible player.
The model’s projection of a record raise seems appropriate. The current record belongs to Chris Davis in 2014, who did not win an MVP Award when received a $7.05MM raise. Davis did out-homer Donaldson, 53 to 42, and had 138 RBIs — 15 more than Donaldson — as well. But, Donaldson had a higher average, .297 versus .286, and played a harder defensive position (third base versus first base) and is known for his excellent defense. While defensive performance usually does not matter much in arbitration cases (other than position played), I believe that Donaldson should be able to use his defense and his hardware to argue that he should have a bigger raise than Davis did– probably something in line with the $12MM projection, I would guess.
The last hitter to enter his second year of arbitration eligibility after winning an MVP Award was five years ago, when Josh Hamilton earned a $5.5MM raise. Hamilton had hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 RBIs, but in only 571 plate appearances. Donaldson’s 140 extra trips to the plate with nine more home runs and 23 more runs knocked in should help him argue for a much larger raise than Hamilton received on the heels of his MVP season in 2010. Even if Donaldson cannot effectively argue that his raise should be larger than Davis’ due to the power gap, he should have less trouble arguing that he is deserving of a bigger raise than Hamilton received five years ago.
Few other players seem likely to make better arbitration cases for Donaldson than Hamilton and Davis. As a result, I think the case will likely come down to an argument about whether Donaldson should get something like a $6MM raise to top Hamilton by a decent margin, or whether Donaldson should get a $7.5MM raise to set a new record beyond Davis. It’s unlikely that Donaldson out-earned the $12MM salary I have projected for him, but I think it is more likely than not that he is close to this range. If he cannot argue that his case is stronger than Davis, though, he might end up around $10.3MM — a hefty raise, to be sure, but a fair margin shy of the current record increase that our model currently projects.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
This Date In Transactions History: Mo Vaughn
On this date in 2001, the Mets acquired first baseman Mo Vaughn from the Angels in exchange for right-hander Kevin Appier. Vaughn had missed the entire 2001 season with the Angels due to a ruptured tendon in his left arm, but General Manager Steve Phillips & Co. opted to roll the dice on the slugger anyway. The trade was meant to bring some power to the Mets’ lineup, but Vaughn’s injuries wound up making the deal one of the worst moves of Phillips’ tenure in New York.
The media got wind of the trade almost a week prior to its completion when sources told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that Phillips, manager Bobby Valentine, and Assistant General Manager Omar Minaya traveled up to Massachusetts to watch Vaughn work out, which was unusual given that Vaughn was under contract with Anaheim. ”I understand it was very positive. I heard that they really liked what they saw,” said one source. That would presumably include Vaughn’s physical shape, despite the slugger’s reported increase from 245 pounds to 275 pounds in his first two seasons with the Halos.
Less than a week later, the Mets agreed to take on Vaughn and the roughly $50MM owed to him over the next three seasons. As part of the deal, the Mets got to defer some of the money paid to the first baseman while the Angels covered the $8MM he was still owed as part of his signing bonus. Meanwhile, they would also part with Appier, who was coming off of an impressive season in his first (and only) campaign in blue and orange. The right-hander posted a 3.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, his best numbers since his time in Kansas City.
Vaughn wasn’t able to mash the ball as well as he had in years past by the time he got to Shea, but the veteran still managed to hit .259/.349/.456 with 26 homers in 139 games in 2002. The 2003 season was an entirely different story, however, as a knee injury in early May would bring his career to a close. Meanwhile, Appier pitched to a 3.92 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 32 starts for the Halos in 2002, helping to propel the Halos to their first World Series title. The Angels wound up releasing Appier the following year as he struggled with a flexor tendon injury, but one has to imagine that they were pretty happy to get out from under the money owed to Vaughn.
This post was originally published in 2012.
Follow MLBTR On Instagram
Earlier this year, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account: @TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.
Recently, we’ve giving fans an early look at traded players in their new jerseys. Here’s a glance at how Starlin Castro will look in pinstripes. And how about Ben Zobrist in his new Cubs uniform? If you’re looking for Todd Frazier in a White Sox jersey, Johnny Cueto in a Giants uniform, or Mike Leake in his new threads, we’ve got you covered there too.
So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag
It’s time for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. Our last edition fielded questions on free agents Wei-Yin Chen, Doug Fister and Mike Leake in addition to breaking down a potential Lorenzo Cain extension and offering baseball book recommendations for the holiday season.
We’ll run another edition of the mailbag later tonight. If you have a question you’ve been kicking around and would like to hear our take, let us know via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. While volume prevents our ability to come close to responding to all of the questions, remember that you can also always join our Tuesday and Thursday afternoon chats, hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.
AL Central Notes: Frazier, Salazar, Allen, White Sox, Twins
The Reds spent “at least a month” trying to pry Danny Salazar from the Indians for Todd Frazier with no luck, and were also unsuccessful with their next demand of Cody Allen and prospects for Frazier, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports in his chronicle of the negotiations between the two Ohio clubs. Cleveland wanted to keep Salazar and Allen in order to contend in 2016 so the Indians were more open to talking about Jose Ramirez and second-tier prospects (Justus Sheffield, Michael Clevinger, Bobby Bradley) with the Reds. Cincinnati, however, wanted two of those prospects plus one of Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer, and the Tribe was unwilling to give up either of its top two minor leaguers. The Indians attempted to construct a three-way deal to land Frazier from Cincinnati but the Reds instead ended up swinging a three-team trade of their own with the White Sox and Dodgers that sent the third baseman to Chicago.
Here’s more from around the AL Central…
- Also from Pluto’s piece, he hears the acquisitions of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli may be the Indians‘ last notable moves of the winter. The club may still make a minor transaction or two but their heavy lifting could be over.
- The White Sox are monitoring the free agent outfield market and giving up a draft pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent “won’t necessarily be a deal-breaker,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required). Chicago’s first-rounder is protected by virtue of being a top-10 pick, so if they were to sign someone like Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler, the Sox would only sacrifice the extra compensation round pick they recently obtained when Jeff Samardzija left to sign with San Francisco. As Olney notes, the White Sox are intent on being contenders while cornerstone pieces like Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are on such reasonable contracts.
- The Twins are looking for a veteran backup outfielder, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes. This player would essentially replace Shane Robinson on Minnesota’s roster, serving as an experienced bench piece behind the Twins’ young outfield corps.
- It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the World Series champions thus far, though Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star feels the Royals front office has earned the benefit of the doubt given its recent success. Expecting the Royals to suddenly splurge above their usual payroll limits was unrealistic, Mellinger notes, as the club needs “efficient spending” to remain competitive in both the short- and long-term. It’s worth noting that the Royals signed Joakim Soria and Chris Young to multi-year contracts and they’ve been at least connected to several major free agents and trade targets (such as Alex Gordon, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez and Frazier), so K.C. could simply be waiting to strike with another notable move.
MLBTR Podcast: Reliever Todd Coffey
Free agent Todd Coffey joins host Jeff Todd this week to talk about his career in the pen and his current comeback attempt. Coffey, who plans to throw for teams in January, says he feels healthy and wants to be able to pitch multiple innings for his next MLB club. Steve Adams also chats with Jeff about what’s up ahead in the hard-to-predict offseason market.
Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.
The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.