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Jurickson Profar Reportedly Seeking Three-Year Deal

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With Juan Soto signed and both Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger traded, some of the top outfielders still available this offseason include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar. Per recent reporting, Santander is looking for a five-year deal and Hernandez is looking for three. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports today that Profar is “looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range.”

Those asks are roughly in line with preseason expectations. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents post, Santander was predicted for $80MM over four years, Hernández for $60MM over three, and Profar $45MM over three.

The three players have some similarities. Each is considered a subpar defender in an outfield corner. None is particularly threatening on the basepaths. Hernández does have 83rd percentile sprint speed but has never swiped more than 12 bags in a season and might not top that now that he’s 32 years old.

But all three are above average hitters. Profar is actually coming off the strongest 2024 season of the three, but he’s been far less consistent in his career. His 2023 season was so poor that he settled for a $1MM guarantee from the Padres last offseason.

That turned into a remarkable bargain for the Friars. Profar has always had good plate discipline and that didn’t change this year, as his 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were each a few ticks better than average. But when he made contact, he did more damage than ever before. His 24 home runs and 158 hits were both career highs. His .302 batting average on balls in play was the best of his career, but so was the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour was a few ticks above his previous best of 87.5 mph. His 44.4% hard hit rate was far higher than his previous personal best of 34.3%.

The overall result was a .280/.380/.459 batting line and a 139 wRC+, indicating he was 39% better than league average. Hernández and Santander had a 134 and 129 wRC+ this year, respectively. Profar’s defense wasn’t graded strongly but he did add ten steals this year, tying a career high. Overall, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season, with Hernandez at 3.5 fWAR and Santander at 3.3.

But as mentioned, consistency has not been Profar’s forte, something that MLBTR has covered previously. His offense has seesawed between below and above average in alternating years, dating back almost a decade now. Starting from 2017 and going to the present, his wRC+ numbers have been 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and 139. Hernández had a dip with Seattle in 2023 but has otherwise been in the 130-145 range from 2020 to the present. Santander has been between 119 and 129 in three straight seasons now.

There’s some risk in taking a three-year bet on Profar, hence the lower predicted contract. But if the Statcast data points to any kind of real change in approach and the contracts end up roughly in the predicted areas, then he has a chance at being the best investment of the three.

Profar’s market has been relatively quiet thus far. He and the Padres each desire a reunion but he hasn’t been connected to any other clubs. The mutual interest between him and the Friars isn’t surprising. San Diego’s president of baseball operations A.J. Preller clearly has an affinity for Profar. Preller was working for the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur and has since signed Profar to the Padres many times. After Profar had an unsuccessful sojourn with the Rockies, he spoke openly of how happy he was to eventually return to San Diego.

However, the financial situation might stand in the way of another reunion. RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of $210MM next year, well beyond their 2024 payroll of $169MM. It’s been reported that they need to get trim that projection down, probably closer to their 2024 number. That’s led to rumors of players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez and others being available in trades, so signing Profar to a notable three-year deal is hard to see at the moment.

Teams like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees have been connected to Hernández and Santander this winter and it stands to reason that they would have at least some interest in Profar as well. The Astros, Reds, Pirates, Royals and other clubs are logical fits for corner outfield help.

Michael Lorenzen Being Marketed As Two-Way Player To Circumvent Roster Limits On Pitchers

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Free agent Michael Lorenzen has primarily been a pitcher in his career but has occasionally dabbled in hitting and playing the outfield. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Lorenzen and his agent, Ryan Hamill of CAA, are pitching him as a two-way player for the upcoming season. However, the idea isn’t really to sell Lorenzen as a viable hitter, but to get around the roster rules that limit how many pitchers a team can have.

Major League Baseball instituted a rule in June of 2022 limiting clubs to 13 pitchers on a 26-man roster. When rosters expand to 28 in September, the pitcher limit goes up to 14. As part of these rules, each player is designated as a pitcher or a hitter or a two-way player. In the case of a two-way player, they don’t count against that pitcher limit. For instance, the Angels were able to carry Shohei Ohtani and 13 other pitchers on their roster during his time with that club, giving them one extra arm compared to all other teams. The Dodgers will be able to do the same in 2025 and beyond, after Ohtani didn’t pitch this year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

To qualify for two-way status, a player needs to have met certain criteria. They need to have pitched at least 20 innings and have played 20 games as a position player or designated hitter, getting at least three plate appearances in those games, in either the current season or the previous one. The status allows the club to get around the roster limitations, as well as the rules on when a position player can pitch.

The plan from Lorenzen and his agent, as laid out by Rosenthal, is to let Lorenzen get the necessary plate appearances this year in order to qualify for two-way status. Once he has that status, it would be in place for the remainder of 2025 and in 2026 as well.

It’s a creative plan which would theoretically increase Lorenzen’s value. In this day and age, pitcher usage has been shrinking, with starters getting pulled earlier and relievers taking up larger workloads. Having one extra arm would certainly appeal to a club, so it’s understandable with Lorenzen and his reps would give it a try.

The challenge would be in implementation. Lorenzen wasn’t an especially good hitter even when he was doing it regularly. With the Reds from 2015 to 2019, he got between five and 53 plate appearances each year, getting to 145 in total over those five seasons. He hit seven home runs but only walked at a 4.8% rate and struck out 31.7% of the time. His .235/.279/.432 line led to an 84 wRC+, which is not too bad for a pitcher but still subpar. It’s also mostly buoyed by a four-homer burst in 34 plate appearances in 2018. He stepped to the plate 53 times in 2019 but went deep just once and slashed .208/.283/.313 for a wRC+ of 53.

Even getting to something in that vicinity is probably a tall ask. Lorenzen got exactly one plate appearance in both 2020 and 2021, followed by none at all in the past three seasons, so we’re talking about a guy who essentially hasn’t hit at all in five years and is turning 33 years old in January.

But the way the plan is outlined, that doesn’t seem to matter. The idea is for a rebuilding club such as the White Sox or Marlins to run Lorenzen out there, knowing full well he isn’t likely to hit much, but presumably not caring since they’re not really trying to win anyway. Once he has unlocked two-way player status, he can be traded to a contender that would benefit from having another pitcher on the roster.

It’s perhaps worth noting that this plan could theoretically be done with any pitcher, though a theoretical hurler might not be keen on the idea. A random free agent pitcher might not want to embarrass himself by stepping up the plate in those 20 games, and there’s also the risk of suffering an injury on a stray pitch hitting a hand or some kind of strain while running the bases or sliding into a bag. Lorenzen at least has the potential to be somewhat passable in the box and it’s possible he welcomes the challenge of getting back in there.

Lorenzen has been utilized more as a pitcher because his results have been better on the mound, and he would have value even just as a standard hurler. He has a 3.99 earned run average in 854 1/3 innings at this point, working as a starter, reliever or swingman over his career. He has signed one-year deals in each of the past three offseasons, just based on his abilities on the mound. He got $6.8MM from the Angels going into 2022, $8.5MM from the Tigers going into 2023 and $4.5MM from the Rangers last offseason. He just posted a 3.31 ERA this year between the Rangers and Royals and would presumably be able to get another solid one-year pact in the coming weeks or months.

The hope from Lorenzen and his reps seems to be that this unorthodox idea could perhaps get him a bit more money or maybe a second year on his next deal. It’s unclear whether any club would have the appetite for such a strategy, however. In the age of expanded playoffs and the draft lottery, very few clubs are going into the 2025 season with no hope of contending. Even clubs that have been bad in recent seasons like the Angels and Athletics have been aggressively adding to their rosters this winter.

The White Sox just had a record-setting season of futility and are surely going to be bad again in 2025, but intentionally tanking a lineup spot to gain some theoretical marginal boost in trade value might be a bit too egregious for a club that probably has some desire for a less embarrassing season next year. It’d also take some at-bats from younger players the team would like to develop.

Rosenthal scoffs at the idea of the White Sox or Marlins having young players that they want to give big league at-bats to, but that’s oddly dismissive. Surely the Fish would have to weigh a plan like this against trying out various players they hope can become viable major leaguers, such as Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Deyvison De Los Santos and so on. Even if they feel they have DH at-bats to use, they could go the more traditional route of just signing a free agent hitter such as Jesse Winker or Tommy Pham with the idea of trading that player at the deadline.

Time will tell if any club will bite, but one has to tip their cap to Lorenzen and his reps for thinking outside the box.

Yankees Interested In Thairo Estrada

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The Yankees are interested in signing Thairo Estrada, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (X link).  New York is now the second team known to be in on Estrada’s market, as the Rockies were also linked to the veteran earlier this week.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Estrada was an international signing for the Yankees back in 2012 and he appeared in 61 games for New York during his first two Major League seasons (2019-20).  It wasn’t until after the Yankees traded Estrada to the Giants in April 2021 that the infielder broke out as a productive big leaguer, hitting .266/.320/.416 over 1203 plate appearances for San Francisco during the 2021-23 seasons.

Estrada’s performance dropped off badly last season, however, and the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of August after Estrada batted only .217/.247/.343 in 381 PA.  Wrist problems plagued Estrada for much of the summer, further hampering an offensive approach that has never led to much hard contact.  Estrada has also been limited in his capacity to get on base, and his 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was the second-lowest of any player in baseball with at least 350 PA.

In the wake of this down year, Estrada surely isn’t being viewed as a starting candidate in the Bronx, though his versatility makes him an interesting candidate for a part-time or bench role.  The large majority of Estrada’s MLB playing time has come at second base, but he has seen a decent amount of time as a shortstop while also chipping in as a third baseman and corner outfielder.  Estrada’s career splits are pretty even, yet on paper, his right-handed bat could complement the left-handed hitting Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is expected to hold down the starting role at either second or third base.

Chisholm and shortstop Anthony Volpe have two of the starting infield jobs spoken for, and Chisholm’s versatility gives New York some flexibility in deciding how to address second or third base.  Conceivably, the Yankees could add Estrada to their in-house collection of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza and let that whole group serve as something of a rotating bench/platoon mix while rotating Chisholm between the keystone and the hot corner.  Or, the Bronx Bombers could go bigger with more of an everyday infield option, though those endeavors are probably on hold until the Yankees learn whether or not Juan Soto will be returning to the team.

Manfred: Golden At-Bat Idea Has Gotten “A Little Buzz”

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December 6: Jesse Rogers of ESPN followed up with Manfred about the golden at-bat idea. The commissioner emphasized that there’s “a very long road” from an idea being considered before it can be implemented and that he’s not personally in favor of the change, though he does encourage things like this to be discussed.

December 2: MLB hasn’t shied away from considering rule changes over the past few seasons. The league has unilaterally implemented a pitch clock, a three-batter minimum for pitchers (barring injury), shift limitations, and incentivized base stealing with pickoff limits and larger bases. MLB and the Players Association also agreed to implement a universal designated hitter in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement.

That hasn’t dissuaded commissioner Rob Manfred from considering other changes. Perhaps the most extreme suggestion that the commissioner has publicly floated would be the possibility of implementing a “golden at-bat” rule. Jayson Stark of The Athletic published a lengthy piece on Monday detailing potential variations of that concept.

At its core, the golden at-bat idea is to allow a team one opportunity to call upon a hitter who is in the lineup but not due for the upcoming at-bat. It’d be somewhat akin to pinch hitting with a player who is already in the game. As Stark notes, the rule could be narrowed to limit when teams could use the golden at-bat (e.g. after a certain inning, only when they’re trailing, etc.)

In October, Manfred suggested there could be some support within the league for exploring that concept. In an appearance on The Varsity podcast with Puck’s John Ourand (X link), Manfred said at the time “there was a little buzz around” the concept at a recent owners meeting. The commissioner said that idea is “in the conversation-only stage right now.”

It’s worth stressing that there’s nothing to suggest MLB has any plans to test this idea. There’s a significant gap between it surfacing in casual conversation and its appearance in any of Spring Training, the minors, or at the All-Star Game — much less in meaningful MLB contests.

The purpose would be to increase the number of high-leverage plate appearances that go to top hitters. That’d create more drama in close games, but it’d be a radical change to the sport. The fixed nature of the batting order often leaves huge at-bats in the hands of less heralded players. One could argue that’s a flaw in comparison to other sports where teams can choose to turn the ball to their stars when games are on the line. At the same time, many of baseball’s most magical moments come when players at the bottom of the order rise to the occasion with key hits.

While implementing one golden at-bat wouldn’t entirely eliminate those opportunities, it’d reduce them. It’s also an inherently artificial measure that’d represent a fundamental change from the way baseball has been played throughout its history. That’s arguably true of some other recent rule adjustments, but the golden at-bat would probably have a much bigger effect than any of the other changes.

Stark’s column goes into much more detail about the strategy implications that would be at play, as well as concerns about tradition and inflated record totals that’d come with allowing teams to give their best hitter an extra at-bat every game. Stark speaks with players, front office personnel, and longtime skipper Joe Maddon (many of whom express their disapproval for the concept) about the idea in a piece that’s worth a full read.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The hot stove is starting to warm up, with multiple deals being signed in the recent days and weeks. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the rest of the winter or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Ty France Open To Playing Catcher

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Ty France hit free agency at the start of the offseason when the Reds outrighted him off their 40-man roster. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the former Mariner is open to catching opportunities as he fields interest from other teams. Feinsand adds that France has already received at least one guaranteed contract offer, though it’s not clear how many teams (if any) view him as a realistic option for work behind the plate.

France has never played catcher in an MLB or minor league game. He’s not wholly unfamiliar with the position though. As a member of the Padres early in his career, France took catching reps at the team’s alternate training site during the 2020 canceled minor league season. He was reportedly viewed as a potential emergency catcher in both San Diego and Seattle, though neither team ever got into a situation where they were compelled to use him.

At 30 years old with no in-game catching experience, France is probably no more than a third catcher or emergency option. It’d be a huge task for him to acclimate to the receiving and game-calling nuances for even semi-regular work at the position. Still, there’s little harm for France in expressing a willingness to entertain catching if a team offered him the opportunity.

France’s lack of defensive value is the biggest knock against him. While he has a bit of experience at both second and third base, he doesn’t have the quickness to play either position regularly. France played almost exclusively first base in 2024. He received poor defensive marks there as well. Defensive Runs Saved graded him seven runs below average, while Statcast estimated he was nine runs below par.

For a couple years, France offset that minimal defensive profile with a big performance at the plate. He combined for a robust .284/.354/.441 slash between the 2020 deadline deal that sent him to Seattle and the end of the ’22 season. His production dipped to a .250/.337/.366 line in 2023. The decline continued this year, as France got out to a .223/.312/.350 start before the Mariners designated him for assignment. A move to hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park didn’t spark his bat. France hit .251/.292/.391 in 52 games for the Reds.

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each graded France’s 2024 performance below replacement level. That made it an obvious call for Cincinnati to decline to tender him an arbitration contract that likely would’ve topped $8MM. It wasn’t out of the question that France would be limited to minor league offers, but Feinsand’s report indicates there’s at least one team willing to give him an Opening Day job. That’d very likely be on a low base salary, potentially with incentives based on his games or plate appearances.

MLBTR TikTok Focus Group

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This website is 19 years old.  I am the owner of the site, and I’m 42 years old.  I have two teenage children and another who is 12, and they have helped me realize that MLB Trade Rumors might benefit from having a presence on TikTok.

I’ve played around with TikTok recently and understand the basic idea, but it’s not an app I would use naturally.  So before launching an MLB Trade Rumors account, I’d like to talk to people who use TikTok regularly.

We are looking for 12 people for a focus group who meet these criteria:

  • Available to join a Zoom call on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time
  • Use TikTok regularly
  • Use this website/app regularly
  • Would like to help us out by answering my questions for an hour.  Generally I am trying to figure out what an entertaining and/or informative MLBTR TikTok account would look like and what you’d like to see.

If you’d like to participate, please enter your email address into this Google Form.  I will select roughly a dozen people at random from that list to participate in a one-hour TikTok/MLB Trade Rumors discussion over Zoom on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time.

I assume more than 12 people will add their email, but I think a larger group would be hard to manage for an open discussion.  All who enter their email will be added to a list where I may send emails about future TikTok focus groups or surveys (your email will not be used for any other purpose).

A few quick notes on this topic:

  • I’m not sure we’ll be launching an MLB Trade Rumors TikTok, but I’m leaning toward it.
  • The possibility of TikTok being shut down in the U.S. likely won’t affect my decision, because we’d be cross-posting to YouTube Shorts.
  • This account would not be run by a current member of the MLBTR writing staff.  We would hold a separate hiring process for this, but I’m not ready to do that yet.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The hot stove is starting to warm up, with a multi-year free agent signing and a notable trade in recent days. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the rest of the winter or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

By | at

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The offseason is here, though the stove isn’t exactly hot yet. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet Named Comeback Players Of The Year

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Major League Baseball conducted its 2024 awards show on Thursday evening. MLB revealed a host of honors, most notably Comeback Player of the Year and the Hank Aaron Award winners. The top honors from the Baseball Writers Association of America — the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards — will wait until next week.

Braves lefty Chris Sale and White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet were named Comeback Players of the Year. Sale rebounded from a middling final season in Boston in which he was limited to a 4.30 ERA in 20 starts. He starred for Atlanta, turning in an MLB-best 2.38 ERA across 177 2/3 innings. He’s favored to win his first Cy Young next week.

Crochet, who was limited to 12 2/3 innings of relief by elbow and shoulder problems in 2023, was one of the game’s biggest breakout performers. The former first-rounder moved into Chicago’s rotation and turned in a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts. While the Sox eased his workload late in the season, he managed 209 strikeouts across 146 innings. Crochet is the top pitcher known to be available on the offseason trade market.

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were named the respective winners of the AL and NL Hank Aaron award, given to each league’s best offensive player. Ohtani also picked up the Edgar Martinez award as MLB’s best designated hitter. Guardians star Emmanuel Clase and Cardinals fireballer Ryan Helsley won the respective Reliever of the Year honors in each league. Much like Crochet, Helsley is one of the winter’s top trade candidates.

MLB also announced its 1st and 2nd teams. Those are not league specific and are designed to honor the best player at each position. Those are as follows:

1st Team

2nd Team

Show all

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