The Nationals’ Search For Pitching
Now that they’ve traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed Edwin Jackson, the Nationals’ projected rotation looks significantly stronger than it did in 2011. Last year, Washington’s rotation included Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis, along with Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Stephen Strasburg and Chien-Ming Wang. I wasn’t overly impressed with GM Mike Rizzo’s offseason additions at this point last offseason.
“It's a passable rotation, but the Nationals had hoped for more,” I wrote on January 31st, 2011. “If and when they start winning, luring free agent arms to D.C. will likely be easier, but Rizzo has a challenge before him until then.”
One year later, the Nationals have upgraded their rotation in a meaningful way by adding young, hard-throwing pitchers with upside. Hernandez was 36 last year and Marquis was 32. In their places, the rotation now features Jackson and Gonzalez, who are entering their age-28 and age-26 seasons, respectively. Hernandez’s average fastball was just shy of 84mph in 2011 and Marquis’ average fastball checked in at 89.3 mph. Jackson and Gonzalez are among the game’s hardest-throwing starters, as are Strasburg and Zimmermann (all four had an average fastball of at least 92 mph in '11).
The Nationals’ rotation posted respectable numbers in categories such as ERA (3.80, 11th in MLB) and walk rate (2.6 BB/9, 8th in MLB) last year. But it was below average in other categories, such as strikeout rate (5.7 K/9, 29th in MLB).
Only two teams obtained fewer innings from their starters than Washington in 2011, and no Nationals starter threw 200 innings. As Rizzo noted yesterday, six of the eight 2011 playoff teams had at least two starters reach the 200 inning plateau. Jackson has averaged 200 innings per season since 2008 and Gonzalez has completed 200 innings in both of the past two seasons, so the Nationals added more than youth and velocity to their starting corps — they added durability without sacrificing upside.
The Nationals were linked to Mark Buehrle before he signed with the Marlins for $58MM and to C.J. Wilson before he signed with the Angels for $77.5MM, so it’s worth noting that Jackson’s deal is for only $11MM. Considering that MLBTR ranked Jackson just behind Wilson and ahead of Buehrle at the beginning of the offseason, the deal seems like a particularly good one for the Nationals.
Nationals To Sign Edwin Jackson
The Nationals haven't finished above .500 since moving to Washington in 2005, but there's reason to expect significant improvement from the 2012 club. GM Mike Rizzo continued bolstering his pitching staff today, agreeing to terms with free agent right-hander Edwin Jackson.
The team announced the one-year deal, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who first reported the news (all Twitter links), says the agreement is valued at $11MM. The Scott Boras client will earn $11MM plus incentives this year, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports.
The Nationals' projected starting rotation includes Jackson (pictured), Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Chien-Ming Wang. Every one of the starters except Wang had an average fastball velocity of at least 92 mph in 2011. John Lannan and Ross Detwiler would provide rotation depth, though Lannan is now on the trade block.
Jackson, 28, posted a 3.79 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a 43.8% ground ball rate in 199 2/3 innings for the White Sox and Cardinals this past season. The hard-throwing right-hander has averaged 208 innings per season with a 3.96 ERA since 2009, but has a career ERA of 4.46 with 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 since he debuted with the Dodgers on his 20th birthday in 2003. Jackson ranked sixth on MLBTR’s list of top free agents entering the offseason.
Jackson profiled as a Type B free agent after the season and the Cardinals offered him arbitration. They'll obtain a compensatory draft pick in the supplementary first round of this year's amateur draft, but it won't come from the Nationals.
As MLBTR's Agency Database shows, the Boras Corporation has quite a presence on the Nationals' roster. Danny Espinosa, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Jayson Werth are all Boras clients.
Last week the Nationals added Brad Lidge to a bullpen that includes Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and Henry Rodriguez. Washington's offense finished 24th in MLB in runs scored last year, but improvements to the pitching staff could make them a threat in the NL East this coming season.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio first tweeted the value of the deal.
Quick Hits: Jackson, Fielder, Rollins, Hall, Ortiz
Here's a wrap-up of news from around the majors on the day that Edwin Jackson and Casey Kotchman both found new teams…
- The Indians had interest in Jackson but "were not close" to matching the contract Jackson received from the Nationals, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (Twitter link).
- Jackson turned down a three-year, $30MM offer to sign his one-year deal with Washington, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looks at how Jackson, Ryan Madson and Francisco Rodriguez (all Scott Boras clients) settled for "pillow contracts" this winter to better position themselves for larger deals next year.
- Prince Fielder, however, never considered a one-year deal, Boras tells James Schmehl of MLive.com. Boras also says Fielder could have signed earlier in the offseason but was on vacation with his wife, delaying his meetings with interested teams.
- Jimmy Rollins' $11MM option for 2015 will vest if he makes 600 plate appearances in 2014, or if he makes a combined 1100 PAs in 2013 and 2014, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link).
- Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall says he has been contacted by some potential Dodgers owners about a job in Los Angeles, but Hall tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he's very happy with the Snakes. Hall has four years remaining on his contract with Arizona.
- David Ortiz's arbitration case with the Red Sox is analyzed from both sides by former Astros president Tal Smith, in conversation with Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Fangraphs' Wendy Thurm begins a series looking at which players were the best values at each position over the last two decades, starting with catcher, first base and second base.
- "The Indians’ bullpen has much more flexibility and depth heading into camp this year," writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian in his breakdown of the Tribe's relief options.
Notes On The Edwin Jackson Signing
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo held a conference call with media this afternoon to discuss his team's agreement with right-hander Edwin Jackson. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post has some of the pertinent details…
- "We did not acqire Edwin Jackson to trade another starting pitcher," Rizzo said. "In spring training or before spring training, if a deal comes up we can’t pass up that positively impacts our ball club, we’d certainly be open-minded to it.” We heard earlier today that the Nats were shopping John Lannan in order to free up some room for Jackson in the club's rotation.
- In regards to Lannan, Rizzo said that though the southpaw has a minor league option remaining, Washington won't send him down to Triple-A. "We feel that he’s a major league-caliber starting pitcher,” Rizzo said. “He’s a major league starter, and he’s ready to help a contending team. That’s what we’re going to use him as.”
- Rizzo noted that six of last year's playoff teams had at least two starters with 200 innings pitched, and Jackson's presence will help correct the "innings shortage" Rizzo said the Nationals suffered last year. This would seem to be a point in favor of the Nats keeping Lannan, as Kilgore notes Chien-Ming Wang's injury history, Stephen Strasburg's 160-inning limit and the fact that Jordan Zimmermann has never thrown more than 161 frames in a season.
- The Nationals began talking with Scott Boras about Jackson within the last two weeks, and Jackson's willingness to accept a one-year contract was the turning point in negotiations. “The term and the value was too good to pass up," Rizzo said. "We felt it improved our club immensely. There comes a point where his value was such that we were comfortable making the deal.”
Nationals Aggressively Shopping John Lannan
After beating John Lannan in an arbitration hearing this week, the Nationals are now aggressively shopping the left-hander according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The move would potentially clear $5MM in payroll, and Rosenthal says (on Twitter) they are targeting Edwin Jackson (not Roy Oswalt). Signing Jackson is contingent on trading Lannan, he adds. The Nationals would like to get a position player in a trade for Lannan, MLB.com's Bill Ladson tweets.
Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann are locks for Washington's rotation, and Chien-Ming Wang is a safe bet as well given his $4MM salary. That leaves Lannan and Ross Detwiler for the final spot, though Detwiler is out of options. He could potentially shift to the bullpen if the team is able to move Lannan and sign someone like Oswalt or Jackson.
Lannan, 27, is the team's highest paid pitcher. He posted a 3.70 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 184 2/3 innings last year. It marked the third time in four seasons that he has started 30 games, pitched 180-plus innings and kept his ERA under 4.00. He will be under team contract as an arbitration-eligible player in 2013.
Nationals Beat Lannan In Arbitration
The Nationals beat John Lannan in arbitration, so the left-hander will earn $5MM in 2012, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post tweets. A hearing took place yesterday to determine whether Lannan should earn $5.7MM, as he and his representatives at CAA requested, or $5MM, as the Nationals offered.
All of the Nationals' arbitration eligible players are now signed for 2012, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows. Lannan was arbitration eligible for the second time this offseason and will remain under club control through 2013. The 27-year-old posted a 3.70 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 184 2/3 innings last year. It marked the third time in four seasons that he has started 30 games, pitched 180-plus innings and kept his ERA under 4.00.
John Lannan Had Arbitration Hearing Today
Nationals southpaw John Lannan had his arbitration hearing today, tweets MLB.com's Bill Ladson. We'll know soon whether the CAA Sports client will be paid $5.7MM or $5MM in 2012. Lannan's hearing was the first of 2012, and arbitrators Robert Herzog, Elizabeth Neumeier and John Skonier are expected to decide by Thursday according to the AP.
A file and trial team, the Nationals have had arbitration hearings with Alfonso Soriano, Chad Cordero, John Patterson, Felipe Lopez, Shawn Hill, Sean Burnett, and Brian Bruney since 2006. The Nationals won five of the seven hearings.
Nationals Sign Chad Durbin
The Nationals signed reliever Chad Durbin to a minor league deal, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Last year Durbin held out until March 1st to score a Major League deal with the Indians; this year he has time to plan before pitchers and catchers report.
Durbin, 34, posted a 5.53 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9, and 40.2% groundball rate in 68 1/3 innings for the Tribe last year. Aside from more of his flyballs leaving the yard and more of his batted balls dropping in for hits, Durbin's numbers weren't much different from when he posted a 3.80 ERA in 2010 with the Phillies.
Durbin joins non-roster invitees Jeff Fulchino and Waldis Joaquin in a spring battle for a low-leverage gig in the Nationals' bullpen.
NL East Notes: Hamels, Chipper, Harper
A few NL East notes to pass along on the day Livan Hernandez departs the division after spending the past three seasons there, with the Mets and Nats.
- The Phillies will have a tough time re-signing Cole Hamels at anything less than full market value, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, as GM Ruben Amaro has rewarded big contracts to both under-control players like Ryan Howard, and free agents such as Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins.
- Within the same piece, Amaro addressed the signing of Papelbon this offseason, saying the club regarded Pap slightly higher than the incumbent Ryan Madson, who eventually signed with the Reds for far less. “We didn’t just want any closer. The way our team is set up, we wanted the best guy, or one of the top two or three guys. We could have gotten a ‘B’ or ‘B-plus’ closer. But we wanted an ‘A.’ With (Papelbon), as good and as durable as he has been, I felt he was the right fit for us.”
- Braves third baseman Chipper Jones, 40 in April, said 2012 may not be his final season, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Jones is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, but his deal includes a $7MM club option that will vest to $9MM if he plays in 123 games. “As long as I stay healthy and I’m having fun, I’m going to keep going. I sit here with three weeks to go before spring training and I’m not ready to say this is it.”
- Nationals manager Davey Johnson wants Bryce Harper to start the season as Washington's right fielder, hears Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That seems like an aggressive approach to me, but it would create quite a bit of buzz in Washington — and in baseball, in general.
Quick Hits: Chacin, Orioles, Dodgers, Ramirez
Sunday night links..
- No team has been has active as the Rockies over the last five years of locking up young players long term before they reach the arbitration process and Troy Renck of The Denver Post writes that Jhoulys Chacin is the next candidate. Chacin is eligible for salary arbitration in 2013 and can't become a free agent until 2016. When asked, GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck that the club isn't ready to do anything at this time.
- The Orioles are involved in "at least three" active trade talks, a source tells Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com. Earlier today, we learned that the O's are in talks with the Cardinals regarding Kyle McClellan.
- There are at least five major groups left in the bidding to buy the Dodgers and all have submitted bids for at least $1.5 billion, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Assistant GM David Forst suggested that the Athletics are open to signing slugger Manny Ramirez but the team is not actively pursuing the free agent, according to the Associated Press.
- Brewers negotiator Teddy Werner said there has been "good progress" in talks with arbitration-eligible right-hander Shaun Marcum, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Marcum filed for $8.7MM and the Brewers countered with $6.75MM in arbitration.
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo confirmed to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter) that the club has no interest in reacquiring Adam Dunn.
- The Orioles' top priority is upgrading their bullpen, but if trade talks for Kyle McClellan come to fruition he could be yet another starting option, tweets Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com.
- While Commissioner Bud Selig looks to expand the postseason from eight to ten teams this year, there remains uncertainty whether it can happen before 2013, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Despite Selig's aspirations, the Players Association still has doubts whether it's feasible.
- New Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez doesn't expect to replace Prince Fielder's bat in the lineup but says that he is fitting in well with his new team, Haudricourt writes.