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Nationals Emerge As Favorite For Fielder?

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5:11pm: The Nationals’ local TV revenue is about to “double, triple or more,” a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Owner Ted Lerner is already the wealthiest in MLB, according to Forbes.  One of Rosenthal’s sources expects the Nationals to sign Fielder, though the first baseman will want a full no-trade clause.  LaRoche’s presence on the roster wouldn't stop the team from making a move, Rosenthal writes.

2:17pm: Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post has quotes from the always-colorful Scott Boras:

"As I’ve told many, there’s a lot of passengers on the PF Flyer.  I keep having discussions with teams, and they keep coming back after those discussions. We are having a very robust and constant communication with many teams.  We’ve had an opportunity over the last 10 days to certainly get more definition, I would say. Normally in free agency, after a period of time you have teams that move to the background. When we think that’s happened, those teams have called back and they’ve changed their position."

The Lerner family's stance against a big-money splash has thawed, writes Kilgore.  Who better to pursue than a man Boras describes as "a combination of Henry Kissinger and Frank Howard?"

10:34am: One MLB official told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently that "word is spreading in the industry that the Washington Nationals have emerged as the favorite" to sign Prince Fielder.

What to make of this rumor?  Haudricourt is reliable, but he made it clear that he is relaying the opinion of "the industry" as passed through one MLB official.  So the source doesn't appear to be from Scott Boras' camp, nor from the Nationals.  Still, the rumor echoes something ESPN's Buster Olney wrote on Thursday: "Some rival executives strongly believe that Washington will be the eventual landing place for Fielder."   That same day, a Nationals player suggested to Jon Heyman the team was in the mix.  

The biggest obstacle to the Nationals signing Fielder seems to be having Adam LaRoche under contract for one year, which did not seem like a major impediment prior to the offseason.  GM Mike Rizzo left the door open a crack for Fielder last Wednesday when talking to Mike Ferrin on MLB Network Radio, speaking at length about LaRoche but adding, "As far as, are we going to dabble our toe in that [Fielder] water?  Those are decisions that we make early on in the process and we've more or less decided that Adam is going to be our first baseman unless something extraordinary, out of the ordinary happened, that's how we're going to go to Spring Training."

Extension Candidate: Tyler Clippard

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Icon_6756808The Washington Nationals are clearly a team on the rise, combining a young rotation (Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez) with an improving offense (Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Morse, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, eventually Bryce Harper) and a solid bullpen. Part of that bullpen is setup man Tyler Clippard, who's been one of the game's best relievers since the Nats moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2009.

Clippard, 27 in February, was acquired from the Yankees for Jonathan Albaladejo in December 2007. A starting pitcher with just a half-dozen big league starts to his credit at the time of the trade, the Nats kept the right-hander in Triple-A for the majority of the 2008 season. He struggled, pitching to a 4.77 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 143 minor league innings that year, making a pair of unspectacular spot starts for Washington in June. The Nationals moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2009, and after a 24-game trial in the minors, he was called up in late-June and has been a bullpen force ever since.

Since that June 2009 call-up, Clippard has pitched to a 2.52 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. His arm has proven to be resilient after working 91 innings in 2010 (78 appearances) and 88 1/3 innings in 2011 (72 appearances), and his fastball velocity has actually increased the last two years. He also cut his walk rate from 4.3 BB/9 in 2009-2010 to just 2.6 BB/9 in 2011. Clippard's biggest flaw is his utter inability to get ground balls, which makes him homer prone. His 25.6% ground ball rate since the start of 2009 is easily the lowest among all pitchers (min. 200 IP), and his 1.05 HR/9 is the third highest among relievers during that time. He did make his first All-Star team in 2011 despite the long ball problem.

Clippard qualified for Super Two status by just two days of service time this offseason, so he'll be arbitration-eligible four times instead of the usual three. Our system projects him to make $1.7MM in 2012, which puts him in uncharted territory for non-closing relievers. Fellow Super Two relievers like George Sherrill ($900K in 2008), Brandon League ($640K in 2009), Rafael Perez ($795K in 2010), and Nick Masset ($1.035MM in 2010) all received considerably less their first time through arbitration while Brian Wilson ($4.4375MM in 2010) received considerably more thanks to his saves total. Clippard falls somewhere in the middle, an elite setup man without enough saves to pad his salary.

You don't see many teams locking up relievers to long-term contracts that buy out arbitration years for a number of reasons, namely the risk involved. Relievers are more volatile than just about any other position in the game, plus their salaries generally remain affordable through arbitration anyway. Wilson, Masset, Manny Corpas, and Jonathan Broxton all signed multi-year contracts that bought out some (but not all) arbitration years and no free agent years. A similarly structured contract could benefit both the Nationals and Clippard.

A two-year contract in the $4-4.5MM range or a three-year contract around $8MM seasons reasonable, though that is just my speculation. A relatively short-term commitment like that would put some guaranteed money in Clippard's pocket while allowing him to maintain the earning potential of his later arbitration years and free agency. The Nats would get some financial certainty and save a few bucks before he starts approaching closer money through arbitration. Most relievers don't get the luxury of multi-year contracts, but then again Clippard isn't most relievers. Washington is improving every year, and a multi-year deal for their star setup man could help ensure that he's still affordable when they're ready to contend.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Oliver, Cubs, Nationals, Byrd, Aviles

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Some Quick Hits for Friday night..

  • The Rangers never made a formal offer to Darren Oliver before the reliever agreed to sign with Toronto, writes Drew Davison of the Star-Telegram.  The 41-year-old's deal is for one-year with a club option for 2013.
  • The Cubs have made a good deal of moves so far this offseason but they've quietly made major changes to their scouting department as well, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.  The team hired former Red Sox major league scout Kyle Evans to oversee Chicago's revamped video and advance scouting.  President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein also plucked amateur scout Matt Dorey from Boston but subsequently agreed not to hire any other BoSox front office personnel until December 2014.
  • Yesterday, ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggested that the Red Sox and Nationals could have interest in Cubs outfielder Marlon Byrd.  Eric Seidman of Fangraphs believes that Olney was right to link the Nats to the veteran outfielder but argues that the club should be thinking bigger.
  • Cuban outfielder Guillermo Aviles is a name to keep in mind down the road, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Aviles, 19 in January, stands at 6-foot-1 and scouts say he shows a good deal of promise.  The left-handed outfielder remains a resident of Cuba and its not known when or if he might look to make the jump to the Majors.

Prince Fielder Rumors: Thursday

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said yesterday on MLB Network Radio that there's every reason to expect Adam LaRoche to play first base in Washington next year. "We've more or less decided that Adam is going to be our first baseman unless something extraordinary, out of the ordinary happened," Rizzo said. However, reports continue to link the Nationals to free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. Here's the latest on Fielder with the most recent updates up top:

  • A Nationals player told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that the club is on on Fielder. "We're in the market. We're still shooting for him," the player said. It's possible the player knows something Rizzo isn't saying publicly, but it's just as possible that the player spoke out of turn about a topic he hasn't been fully briefed on. We can be reasonably sure of one thing — that the unnamed player wasn't LaRoche himself.

Rizzo On Center Field, First Base

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo joined Mike Ferrin on MLB Network Radio today; here are a few key comments.

On center field:

We see the 2013 free agent class at center field is much stronger than it is for the 2012 season.  With that in mind we know Jayson [Werth] can handle the center field position.  It's not a perfect world for us.  He's a good defender out there and is ready, willing, and able to take on the responsibility to play center field.  We recognize that we need a true gliding, defensive, rangy center fielder out there in a perfect world. As far as the 2012 season we're not going to make a kneejerk reaction and lock ourselves into anything long-term if it doesn't make sense for us.  

MLBTR's 2013 free agent list can be seen here.  Viable candidates for the Nationals could include Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino, or perhaps Angel Pagan or Grady Sizemore if they have strong 2012 seasons.

On whether Rizzo will monitor the Prince Fielder situation:

Adam LaRoche is under contract for us, we're paying him a lot of money to play first base for us next year.  We feel that he's going to have a bounceback season.  We just want him to have his career norms: .265, 25, 85-100 RBIs and play great defense.  We feel that his shoulder is rehabbed, he's 100%, and talking to him just recently he feels great and he's ready to contribute to us in 2012.  As far as, are we going to dabble our toe in that water?  Those are decisions that we make early on in the process and we've more or less decided that Adam is going to be our first baseman unless something extraordinary, out of the ordinary happened, that's how we're going to go to Spring Training.

Nationals Sign Mark DeRosa

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WEDNESDAY: The Nationals officially announced their one-year deal with DeRosa today.

THURSDAY: The Nationals have agreed to sign Mark DeRosa, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday that the sides were nearing a one-year, Major League deal. The agreement with the utility player is pending a physical, Heyman notes. CSE represents DeRosa, who drew interest from at least four teams this offseason.

DeRosa played in just 47 games in 2011 because of a strained left wrist. The versatile 36-year-old was productive in 2009, posting a .250/.319/.433 line and appearing at five different positions for the Indians and Cardinals. However, he has struggled to stay on the field since signing a two-year deal with the Giants two Decembers ago. When he did play for the Giants, DeRosa posted a forgettable .235/.313/.279 line.

Minor Moves: Mike Ballard

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The latest minor moves from around MLB…

  • The Nationals signed left-hander Mike Ballard to a minor league deal, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). Ballard, 27, posted a 3.84 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 159 1/3 innings for the Orioles' top affiliates this past season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in six minor league seasons in the Rangers' and Orioles' systems.

NL East Links: Ramos, Nationals, Gonzalez

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Two years ago today, the Mets signed Kelvim Escobar to an incentive-laden one-year deal worth $1.25MM guaranteed. Escobar hurt his shoulder (again) and never did pitch for the Amazin's, and over the last four seasons he's appeared in just one game due to shoulder problems. Here's the latest from the NL East…

  • The Marlins have hired former Rays bullpen coach Bobby Ramos to be their Latin American player development coordinator, writes Juan C. Rodriguez of The Sun Sentinel. It's a new position the team created because none of their minor league coordinators are Hispanic, and they felt it was imperative to have a Spanish-speaker around all of their young prospects from Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, etc.
  • Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider looked at the back of the Nationals' rotation, where Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, and John Lannan are competing for two spots. Detwiler is out of options, but Wang and Lannan will earn $4MM+ next season.
  • Ken Davidoff of Newsday writes that he likes the Nationals' acquisition of Gio Gonzalez, even though it feels like an overpay for a pitcher who is good rather than great. With plenty of focus already directed at Stephen Strasburg, it seems unlikely that Gonzalez will be overwhelmed by attention in Washington.
  • Overall, the Nationals landed a good starter in Gonzalez, but the club has to realize that they will have to deal with some frustration over the next few years in addition to the positives, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.

Morosi On Blue Jays, First Base, Starters, Cespedes

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The baseball world figures to remain relatively quietly until after the New Year, but as Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports writes, there is still a lot of work to be done before the season begins. Let's round up Morosi's rumors…

  • The Blue Jays are saying they will not give a hitter a contract of more than five guaranteed years, though they'll likely have to violate that policy if they want to sign Prince Fielder.
  • The Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, and Pirates are all considering non-Fielder upgrades at first base. Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, and Derrek Lee remain unsigned, among others.
  • Some within the game believe that Joakim Soria and Carlos Marmol could be had at the right price. The Cubbies are said to be planning a "complete and total rebuild."
  • Both Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook remain available, and the Rangers may be willing to trade Matt Harrison for a more established starter.
  • Most believe Yoenis Cespedes will sign for more than the $30.25MM Aroldis Chapman received because as a position player, he carried less risk. A larger number of interested teams and the new collective bargaining agreement will also help his cause.

Cafardo’s Latest: Madson, Kuroda, Cespedes, Zumaya

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Even on Christmas, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe delivers his usual Sunday Baseball Notes column. This week, he runs down the best available players remaining on the free agent and trade markets at each position. Here are a few highlights from those lists and the rest of Cafardo's piece:

  • The Red Sox and Angels are "keeping the dialogue open" with Ryan Madson.
  • While many reports have indicated Hiroki Kuroda's willingness to play on the East Coast, the right-hander still has some desire to stay out west.
  • The Marlins are being aggressive on Yoenis Cespedes, with the Nationals right behind them. Earlier this weekend, we heard there's some divide within the Marlins' front office on Cespedes.
  • An AL GM on Joel Zumaya: "Our doctors don't think he would pass the physical based on what they see."
  • The Rays are among the clubs that have talked to Francisco Cordero.
  • Cafardo gets the feeling Matt Garza will be dealt, and warns not to rule out the Tigers.
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