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Rosenthal On Cliff Lee, MacDougal, Dunn, Valentine

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Cliff Lee starts tonight at Yankee stadium, and it figures to be one of his last outings in a Mariners uniform.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his column with an examination of the market for Lee, noting that "the acquisition cost should be lower than the last two times he was traded."  Rosenthal sees no obvious favorite for the lefty at this time, though Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times believes "the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder."  Rosenthal's other rumorage:

  • The Nationals have until Thursday to decide whether to promote Mike MacDougal.  Otherwise, he can elect free agency.  The hard-throwing righty has a 4.71 ERA, 5.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 minor league innings.
  • Rosenthal confirms other reports that the White Sox and Angels like Nationals slugger Adam Dunn.  He notes that Dunn "does not want to become a DH."
  • One executive feels that Jose Guillen will continue to hit well with the contract year carrot dangling.  Yesterday we learned from ESPN's Buster Olney that the Royals are pushing hard to move Guillen and will eat much of the $6.3MM remaining on his contract.  As for David DeJesus, an exec told Rosenthal the Royals "want to hit a home run" in any trade.
  • The Giants seek stability in their left-handed relief crew (currently Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler), but the need could be addressed internally.
  • The Cardinals "likely will wait until at least the All-Star break to fully assess their needs."  The starting pitching situation will depend on the recoveries of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.
  • At another link, Rosenthal updates the Bobby Valentine-Marlins situation.

Cafardo On Baylor, Haren, Konerko, Bedard

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With the Marlins and Orioles searching for new managers, Don Baylor wonders why he isn't being considered for either job, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Baylor would love a chance to manage Baltimore, the franchise that drafted him over four decades ago, in the second round of the 1967 amateur draft. Let's check out Cafardo's other notes….

  • The Yankees, Twins, Nationals, Cardinals, and Tigers had scouts watching Dan Haren's most recent start.
  • There were a few teams hoping Paul Konerko would be available this summer, but with the White Sox suddenly just a game and a half out of first place, they obviously don't plan to trade their home run leader.
  • Cliff Lee may not be the only Seattle left-hander on the trade block next month. Erik Bedard is due back soon, and Cafardo thinks that the Mariners could try to move him if he looks healthy in July.
  • Scott Schoeneweis would like to catch on with a club as a situational lefty, but "his phone isn't ringing."
  • D.J. Carrasco could be traded before the deadline. Carrasco's numbers this season haven't been overly impressive (4.12 ERA, 1.76 K/BB), but if the relief market is as thin as Buster Olney indicated this morning, the right-hander should draw some interest.

Rosenthal’s Full Count: Zambrano, Angels, Brewers

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Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…

  • The fact that Carlos Zambrano is a 29-year-old pitcher still capable of winning 12-15 games a year should be enough to allow the Cubs to trade him, but of course the team will have to a eat a large chunk of the $45MM left on his deal. Rosenthal reminds us that the Cubbies came ahead financially when they moved Milton Bradley this winter.
  • The Angels still want to add a first baseman, and Adam Dunn is on their list of potential targets. If they do make a move for Dunn or perhaps Adam LaRoche, incumbent first baseman Mike Napoli could become trade bait. 
  • The Nationals have yet to get serious in any discussions about a contract extension with Dunn. 
  • The Brewers are still searching for pitching, and the Blue Jays could be a potential match. Toronto likes Double-A infielder (and Canadian) Brett Lawrie, but the Brewers would be reluctant to trade him. They would have to consider it if he could land them someone like Brett Cecil or Shaun Marcum, though.
  • Arizona will probably not want to keep both Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson since they combine to make over $20MM next year, but Haren's value isn't what it once was. One baseball person told Rosenthal that "[Haren]'s not at the top of anyone's list, he's just another name."

Nationals Exploring A Trade For Edwin Jackson?

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Edwin Jackson enjoyed the finest moment of his big league career last night when he no-hit the Rays, which coincidentally came at the same time MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling heard that the Nationals "were exploring a trade" for the righthander. Current Nats' GM Mike Rizzo has plenty of ties to the Diamondbacks, having joined the franchise when they were created in 1998 and serving as their scouting director from 2000-2006.

This year, the 26-year-old Jackson has been unable to replicate the success he enjoyed during in his breakout 2009 season. He's pitched to a 4.63 ERA in 107 innings, striking out 7.1 batters per nine innings while walking 3.8 per nine. The Scott Boras client is owed approximately $2.28MM for the rest of the season, and is under contract for $8.35MM next year. 

Rizzo said he has identified starting pitching as the club's biggest need, though we really haven't seen them linked to any specific names until now. Arizona has yet to indicate that a fire sale is coming, but that could change in a heartbeat. 

Odds & Ends: Bumgarner, Tracy, Oswalt, Atkins

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Links for Friday night, as Edwin Jackson tosses a 149-pitch no-hitter against his former team….

Rizzo, Boras Have Had Initial Talks About Harper

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The deadline for teams to sign their draft picks is still a little under eight weeks away, but Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo and agent Scott Boras have had "initial conversations" about a deal for first overall pick Bryce Harper according to principal owner Mark Lerner, as told to The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore.

"I'm confident we'll get a deal worked out," said Lerner. "I think the kid wants to play."

Kilgore mentions that negotiations are unlikely to begin in earnest until close to the August 16th deadline, which Boras is known to do with his top players. Rizzo and Boras have hammered out deals before, most notably for Stephen Strasburg as last year's top pick. 

The 17-year-old Harper is expected to shatter Rick Porcello's record deal for a teenage draftee, which guarantees him $7.285MM. Strasburg's $15.1MM contract represents the all-time draft record. You can follow the signing status of all first and supplement first rounders with our complete list.

Nationals Could Be Buyers Or Sellers

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The Nationals could be sellers at the trade deadline, but if the team climbs out of last place and improves upon its 32-39 record, they could become buyers. GM Mike Rizzo told reporters, including Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, that the Nats front office remains flexible as the deadline approaches.

"If there's a good deal to be made to acquire talent, we'll acquire it," Rizzo said. "There's no marching orders to dump payroll or to add payroll.” 

Rizzo, who says he is always looking to make a deal that helps the team long-term, identified starting pitching as the Nationals’ biggest need. If the team becomes a seller, players such as Livan Hernandez, Matt Capps and Adam Dunn could interest other teams. 

But Rizzo says the club likes Dunn offensively and defensively, so the Nationals continue looking into an extension with the slugging first baseman. Dunn’s two-year $20MM deal expires after the season and the two sides have been discussing an extension since the spring.

Minor League Transactions: Johnson, Mastny, Botts

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Tom Mastny and Jason Botts were among the former major leaguers to sign deals with big league clubs from June 8th-14th. Baseball America's Matt Eddy has the details:

  • Ben Johnson, one of the players the Padres sent the Mets for Heath Bell, has signed a deal with the Tigers. The outfielder, who has a .230/.313/.414 line in parts of three major league seasons, had been playing in the Golden League.
  • Scott Patterson, who played briefly with the Yankees and Padres in 2008, signed with the Mariners after posting an 18K/3BB ratio in the Atlantic League.
  • The Marlins turned to Tom Mastny in their search for relievers, signing the former Indian out of the Atlantic League. Mastny, 29, posted a 6.13 ERA in 94 innings with Cleveland from 2006-08.
  • The Royals released Jason Taylor four years after drafting him in the second round and signing him to a $763K deal.
  • The Nationals signed Jason Botts out of the Atlantic League. Botts, who has a minor league OPS of .875, spent parts of the 2005-08 seasons with the Rangers.
  • The Orioles and Royals, two of the organizations that have seven domestic minor league clubs, have pursued and signed non-drafted free agents aggressively.
  • Mike Curto reports (via Twitter) that the Astros acquired Tommy Everidge from the Mariners. Everidge appeared in 24 games for the A's last year.

Heyman On Lee, Yankees, Harper

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The Cubs' acquisition of Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley, the Tigers' decision to let Magglio Ordonez's 2010 option vest and the Yankees' decision to put Phil Hughes in the starting rotation all make Jon Heyman's list of the year's best non-free agent moves. Here are Heyman's latest rumors, from SI.com:

  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik isn't waving the white flag yet. He says the AL West is winnable and wants to see how the M's play "in the next couple weeks" before deciding whether to sell.
  • Every executive Heyman spoke to expects Cliff Lee to choose free agency over an in-season extension, no matter what uniform he's wearing this summer.
  • The Yankees now seem like the favorites to sign Lee this winter, but could they acquire the lefty during the season? They will call the Mariners in case they like the asking price for Lee, but the Yanks don't seem like a fit.
  • Bryce Harper will look for a record bonus, according to an NL executive. Heyman's sources say Harper will be aiming for considerably more than $12MM. Stephen Strasburg, who signed for $15.1MM last summer, could be considered a bargain since he has generated lots of excitement (and revenue) in Washington. Harper and agent Scott Boras can point to the buzz around Strasburg in their negotiations with the Nats.

Using Postseason Odds To Identify Sellers

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Buyers and sellers can be hard to identify this time of year, since so many teams are often within a few games of a playoff spot. It's not even July yet, but a number of clubs have extremely slim odds of becoming contenders and appear likely to sell. Here are the teams that have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs in 2010, according to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus.

  • Orioles
  • Royals
  • Indians
  • Mariners
  • Nationals
  • Astros
  • Pirates
  • Diamondbacks

Other than those eight clubs, the A's (7% chance of making the playoffs), White Sox (6%), Cubs (5%) and Brewers (2%) are potential sellers to watch. The White Sox, winners of ten of their last 12, have dramatically improved their chances of playing meaningful games down the stretch. They have shown that anything is possible, but the eight teams listed above seem like good bets to become sellers within the next six weeks. 

In case you're wondering, BP suggests the Rangers (81%) are the safest bet to make the playoffs.

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