Perrotto’s Latest: Royals, Ibanez, Rauch, Gregg
It’s Sunday, which means that John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s the highlights…
- Royals GM Dayton Moore will likely make a big splash in the free agent market once again. Two years ago, he signed Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal. Last year, he signed Jose Guillen to a three-year, $36MM contract. This year, his big target appears to be Rafael Furcal, which would allow the Royals to move Mike Aviles to second base. Moore is also believed to be willing to trade anyone on the team with the exceptions of Meche, Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria.
- Raul Ibanez isn’t likely to be back with the Mariners as a free agent next season. Perrotto feels that Ibanez is a good bet to become the Rays’ designated hitter for 2009.
- The Diamondbacks originally wanted to use Jon Rauch as their closer for 2009 and let Brandon Lyon leave through free agency. Rauch’s recent string of rough outings has them reconsidering that train of thought.
- The Marlins will try to trade Kevin Gregg this offseason, and will likely non-tender him if they don’t find match.
- The Braves are looking to add two starters for the 2009 campaign. General manager Frank Wren has traveled overseas to scout Japanese pitchers Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami already this year.
- The Nationals have a crowded situation at first base with both Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young under contract, but they’ll still be looking to improve at the position in the offseason.
Odds and Ends: Sabathia, Pavano, Penny, Burnett
Random links to start the morning…
- Ben Shpigel says Billy Wagner‘s $10.5MM for ’09 is not covered by insurance, making the Mets unlikely suitors for K-Rod (hat tip to MetsBlog).
- The Padres claimed knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. You have to like the move; he’s only 24.
- Ken Davidoff writes about Nationals pitcher Tim Redding, who dreams about returning to the Yankees one day.
- Davidoff also says that contrary to popular belief, C.C. Sabathia did not buy a home in Southern California.
- In another post, Davidoff lists the worst trades of ’08.
- Nats GM Jim Bowden will probably bring in a veteran first baseman next year due to health concerns with Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young.
- Not much cooking on the Pedro Alvarez front…Bud Selig testified yesterday, and the next part of the hearing isn’t until September 23rd.
- Andrew Baggarly explains Bengie Molina‘s contentious relationship with the Giants.
- From Saturday: Carl Pavano‘s side of the story. Can Pavano be a useful pitcher next year?
- Larry Borowsky would like to see the Cardinals enterain an extension for Todd Wellemeyer. He’s eligible for free agency after the ’09 season.
- Joel Sherman isn’t sure the Yankees will invite Andy Pettitte back next year.
- Brad Penny says he pitched through a shoulder injury because of uncertainty around his ’09 option.
- Interesting fact…A.J. Burnett is second in MLB with 3286 pitches thrown (Sabathia jumped into the lead last night). Many of the ’07 leaders in pitches thrown came down with injuries this year.
- Michael O’Keefe sits down with agent Scott Boras.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney notes that the Blue Jays will pursue a shortstop this winter.
- All you ever wanted to know about Dr. James Andrews.
- Jed Hoyer explains where Curt Schilling learned his negotiating tactics.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
Check out our previous offseason outlooks here. Today let’s take a look at the 2009 Washington Nationals:
C – Jesus Flores – $400K
C – Wil Nieves – $400K
1B – Nick Johnson – $5.5MM (wrist surgery June ’08)
2B – Emilio Bonifacio – $400K
SS – Cristian Guzman – $8MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $465K+
IF – Dmitri Young – $5MM
IF – Ronnie Belliard – $1.9MM
IF/OF – Willie Harris – $800K+
LF – Elijah Dukes – $400K
CF – Lastings Milledge – $403K
RF – Austin Kearns – $8MM
OF – Wily Mo Pena – $5MM club option or $2MM player option (shoulder surgery July ’08)
SP – Tim Redding – $1MM+
SP – John Lannan – $400K
SP – Jason Bergmann – $404K
SP – Collin Balester – $400K
SP – Shawn Hill – $402K (arthroscopic elbow surgery September ’08)
RP – Joel Hanrahan – $400K
RP – Garrett Mock – $400K
RP – Saul Rivera – $436K
RP – Jesus Colome – $1.25MM+
RP – Ryan Wagner – $450K+
RP – Charlie Manning – $400K
RP – Steven Shell – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Chad Cordero – $6.2MM, Ryan Langerhans – $500K+
The Nats have about $40MM committed for ’09 before arbitration raises. After that they could be around $45MM (mainly due to Zimmerman and Redding). The Nats entered the ’08 season at $55MM, so they can add a few free agents without increasing payroll.
Odalis Perez was a nice signing for around a million bucks; the Nats should re-sign him at a small increase or attempt to find a similar veteran to stabilize the rotation (they pursued Bartolo Colon last year). Beyond that, they can just let guys fight it out. Hill will try to stay healthy, Bergmann has potential (he was recently removed from the rotation). Prospect Jordan Zimmermann looks interesting and nearly ready. Redding could have value on the trade market, but there’s no rush to deal him.
Young and Kearns are the team’s worst contracts, and they’ll be near-impossible to move. If everyone’s healthy next year, hopefully Manny Acta will ensure regular playing time for Dukes and Milledge. Pena may choose to stick around for $2MM.
The bullpen is questionable, but it’d be best not to spend significant money there for a team not expected to compete. Big-name free agents in general would be a mistake. Last year the Nationals pursued Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones; neither would’ve been a good signing for them. Hopefully Jim Bowden won’t become too obsessed with Adam Dunn this winter (assuming Bowden keeps his job). Dunn doesn’t fit on this team. They’re in the beginning of a long rebuilding process.
Drama Over Pedro Alvarez Contract
4:51pm: Jim Callis’ analysis is a must-read at Baseball America. There is a legitimate chance Alvarez is treated as if he didn’t sign, and will become eligible for the ’09 draft.
2:08pm: Jonathan Mayo, Jenifer Langosch, and Kevin Goldstein dig up more details. Turns out Hosmer turned down $5.5MM prior to the deadline, but agreed to $6MM during an MLB-approved extension. The Nats may have had an extension for Aaron Crow as well.
THURSDAY, 8:19am: MLB and the Pirates say the grievance is without merit, while Boras says the Bucs violated MLB’s rules and need to "come clean." Dejan Kovacevic says the sides have not yet discussed the idea of more money, dismissing the idea that Boras demanded another $200K. An arbitrator will make a binding decision on this case on September 10th. Most believe Alvarez will remain a Pirate with a $6MM bonus.
By the way, Royals GM Dayton Moore is not concerned about Hosmer’s contract.
WEDNESDAY, 5:07pm: MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has been digging all day on this topic. Many questions remain, but it’s a good read.
2:27pm: Baseball America’s Jim Callis offered thoughts on the situation in a chat today. He heard Hosmer was granted an extension by MLB, and signed a bit after the deadline. Alvarez may have been granted one as well. Alvarez apparently took control of the negotiations toward the end, which may be the cause for Boras’ complaint. A similar situation happened in ’93 with A-Rod, and the grievance didn’t go anywhere.
Also, it should be noted that the Players Association filed the grievance, not Scott Boras.
2:07pm: MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch talked to a source who said Boras wants another $200K, so that Alvarez’s bonus matches Buster Posey‘s.
12:57pm: Turns out Pedro Alvarez has not reported to the Pirates yet for a reason – the Players Association filed a grievance on his behalf today. They’re saying Alvarez verbally agreed to his $6MM bonus after the midnight deadline on August 15th. Scott Boras informed the Pirates that Alvarez will not sign the contract unless it is renegotiated at a higher number. Royals top pick Eric Hosmer may also become tangled up in this mess, since his contract was submitted after Alvarez.
The Pirates issued a statement, showing their displeasure with Boras’ tactics but expressing confidence the grievance will be dropped. The team also indicates disappointment with Alvarez himself, as he ultimately approved this grievance. In a way, it seems like Boras is taking a stand in general against the idea of the midnight deadline.
Fuentes, Taveras Placed On Waivers
3:25pm: Rosenthal says Fuentes’ trip to the bereavement list pretty much kills the chances of a trade.
WEDNESDAY, 10:55am: Troy E. Renck weighs in, suggesting that Taveras might clear waivers. The Nationals like him, but don’t want to add payroll. He expects the Dodgers, Rays, and Cardinals to put in claims on Fuentes (the Dodgers would win). The price remains a premium young starter, even though now the receiving team would get one less month of Fuentes.
TUESDAY: As expected, the Rockies have placed closer Brian Fuentes and center fielder Willy Taveras on waivers. Ken Rosenthal does not expect either player to clear.
As Rosenthal says, the Rockies will still require a return superior to two draft picks for Fuentes. He is certain to sign a multiyear deal elsewhere in the offseason. The Dodgers have first crack among contenders, though a non-contender could put in a claim just for sport.
Taveras is under team control through 2010, unless he is non-tendered before then. The speedy 26 year-old is hitting just .264/.316/.312 in 465 plate appearances.
Aaron Crow’s Perspective
Jim Bowden and the Nationals failed to sign first round draft pick Aaron Crow over a mere $900K. The process was a sticky one, to say the least.
Eric SanInocencio, host of Baseball Digest Daily Live, sat down with Crow yesterday for an intriguing podcast and got his perspective in the failed negotiations. The interview is about 15 minutes into the show:
- Crow said the process was an emotional roller coaster, but was content with the resolution. In dealing with Washington and the way they handled the process and communicated with him and his family, he began to realize he’d be better off next year dealing with any of the other 29 clubs. According to Crow, after speaking with Jim Bowden and being congratulated for being picked, he "didn’t hear back from him for… the whole rest of that month."
- Crow didn’t seek advice with former Missouri teammate Max Scherzer, or Luke Hochevar, figuring it worked out for them so it’d work out for him. He said he put himself up against those guys, believing in himself, "believing in a similar outcome as well."
- He admitted to seeking a major league deal that would put immediately on the 40-man roster. According to Jim Bowden, when he asked the rationale was behind such a deal, Crow’s agents, the Hendricks, failed to respond. In the end, their insistence on a major league deal was dropped but Bowden would not meet the $4.4MM asking price.
- When asked if he would accept a situation in which the Nationals drafted him again next year, Crow said he "would prefer if they stayed away from me and drafted somebody else. I’d be a lot more comfortable and would work out better for both of us if they just decided to go with other players."
A Closer Look at Strasburg
A spot on the US Olympic team has thrown some extra attention on 20-year old San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg, likely to be the top pick in next year’s draft. As Thomas Boswell wrote today in the Washington Post, Strasburg’s fastball has been clocked at 101 mph and it’s not even his best pitch (that would be his curveball).
Boswell excited because his hometown Nats are so terrible, they just might be getting the No. 1 draft pick that would let them snag the 220 lb, 6’4" Strasburg. But Buster Olney rains on his parade:
Strasburg’s advisor is Scott Boras, and if the Nationals thought the asking price of Aaron Crow was high, well, they ain’t seen nothing yet.
Nonetheless, DC scribes are following the scouts’ lead and positively drooling over the big righty. In addition to his high-90s heater and his 70s curve, Strasburg has a slider in the 80s and struck out 23 batters in one game in April.
Washington has a .354 winning percentage as of right now. The only other teams under .400 are San Diego (.375) and Seattle (.367).
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro. She can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Manny, Pavano, Gonzalez
Some Saturday mid-day linkage:
- Hitoki Iwase was lit up in the Olympics, possibly dropping his stock as a prospect. Iwase was one of several Japanese players being scouted by Major League clubs in Beijing.
- Luis Gonzalez reminisces about his trade to the Diamondbacks ten years ago.
- Manny Ramirez is not interested in talking about those old Philadelphia rumors. I’m shocked, shocked.
- J.D. Drew‘s back spasms are actually a herniated disk. According to Nick Cafardo, the Red Sox would love to add another outfielder, but can’t seem to lay their hands on one. No offense to Jason Lane.
- He’s baaaa-aaaack: Free-agent-to-be Carl Pavano is starting tonight for the New York Yankees. Strike up the band and break out the rum punch.
- Recently traded infielder Jose Bautista was at odds with Pirates manager John Russell.
- Thomas Boswell talks about the possibility of Stephen Strasburg becoming a National next year.
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro and can be reached here.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Howard, Burrell, Burnett
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new column up today.
- With Ryan Howard looking at maybe a $14MM salary in his second year of arbitration, the Phillies could shop him this winter. Rosenthal lays out a scenario where they trade Howard and use some of those young players to acquire Matt Holliday. In this scenario Pat Burrell could be re-signed to play first base. I was surprised to see that a club official sees the chances of retaining Burrell as better than 50-50.
- If A.J. Burnett opts out, he will again favor teams such as the Nationals, Orioles, and Cardinals. Rosenthal thinks the Yankees and Mets are possible as well. And it’s still possible the Jays convince Burnett to stay by adding to his ’09 and ’10 salaries.
- Rosenthal frowns upon the Mariners’ double-failure to unload Jarrod Washburn‘s contract.
Heyman’s Latest: Bowden, Helton, Maddux, K-Rod
Let’s take a look at the latest from SI.com’s Jon Heyman.
- Despite the headline "Nats GM in trouble," Heyman says Jim Bowden has the support of his bosses. They do not blame him for Aaron Crow and are not concerned with his possible connection to the scout skimming scandal.
- Heyman suggests the Rockies could shop first baseman Todd Helton this winter if he demonstrates a healthy back in September. Here’s the thing – if Helton was a free agent and you had to give him a three-year deal, what would you pay? $5MM a year maybe? Are the Rockies going to eat $40MM? Helton might have to be swapped for another bad contract.
- Heyman sees Ryan Dempster getting four years and $48MM, and Oliver Perez snagging $60MM over five. Are they worth that?
- People close to Greg Maddux are saying he wants to pitch next year. Heyman also sees John Smoltz and Tom Glavine back in ’09.
- "Some are expecting" the Reds to be big players in free agency this year. The Reds figure to be in the market for catching and outfield help. Manny Ramirez would be interesting.
- Heyman wonders if the Mets will be players for Francisco Rodriguez this winter.