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2008 Club Options

Instead of rehashing the usual Jacque Jones/Jose Capellan trade rumors, let's take a stab at predicting whether teams will exercise their 2008 options.

Ivan Rodriguez - $13MM with $3MM buyout.  Pudge will be 36 in 2008, but his defensive value and continued pop seem to justify the $10MM difference.  Exercised.

Adam Dunn - $13MM.  What team wouldn't sign Dunn to a one-year, $13MM contract for his age 28 season?  There's a chance the Reds will cut ties - maybe 25%.  It might be that they talk a big game, complain about his strikeouts, but ultimately exercise it.  The Cardinals took this route with Jim Edmonds last year.  Even if Wayne Krivsky exercises it and then shops Dunn, it'd be better than just letting him walk to save the money.  Exercised.

Marcus Giles - $4MM.  I know, it's just 75 ABs.  But Giles looks rejuvenated as a Padre, hitting .347/.386/.493.  At this price Kevin Towers can't go wrong.  Exercised

Juan Uribe - $5MM.  Uribe is doing his usual thing, hitting for power with no plate discipline.  Combined with good defense at a premium position, this is worth the price.  The White Sox don't have any viable alternatives.  Exercised

Cesar Izturis - $5.45MM.  Lou Piniella doesn't seem very tolerant of Izturis's anemic bat, opting to get Ronny Cedeno's anemic bat in the lineup in recent days.  It would be a feather in Jim Hendry's cap if Izturis cemented himself as the Cubs' shortstop, as he was the return in the Greg Maddux trade.  But I think the Cubs will look for something better at short, and at least entertain Alex RodriguezDeclined.      

Geoff Jenkins - $9MM.  If Jenkins continues to sit against lefties, he can put up his best rate stats in a while.  But I don't see the Brewers volunteering for another season with a $9MM platoon player.  Declined

Bobby Abreu - $16MM.  He's off to a nice start, but has just two extra-base hits.  This option is going to be a tough call.  If Abreu scores 140 runs or something, can Cashman really cut him loose?  On the other hand, are the Yankees going to be paying $16MM for another Brian Giles next year?  It could go either way, but I'll say Declined

Jose Guillen - $9MM.  Too early to tell, but that's the fun of this exercise.  One certainty is that Jim Bowden is glad he didn't give Guillen that five year, $50MM deal he wanted.  Since we haven't seen signs of life from Guillen since 2005, I'll go with Declined.

Shawn Green - $10MM.  No chance the Mets want him around in '08 at that price.  Declined.

Randy Wolf - $9MM.  Yes, Wolf's contract was a huge bargain, but it was more a hometown discount than a brilliant move by Ned Colletti.  Any GM would've taken him at that price.  Wolf doesn't need to maintain his 3.38 ERA to justify the option; he just needs to toss 200 innings with an ERA in the low 4s.  Exercised

Paul Byrd - $8MM.  This should be an easy one for Mark Shapiro, as he's got plenty of cheap pitching talent in the pipeline.  Even with the price of pitching as it is, a 37 year-old Byrd isn't worth it.  Declined.   

Kris Benson - $7.5MM.  With another year of mediocrity, Benson might've gotten this exercised.  However, rotator cuff surgery makes this an easy decision.  Declined.

Odalis Perez - $9MM.  Dayton Moore got a half-price deal on Perez, as the Dodgers are picking up some of the tab.  It was a reasonable gamble, and hopefully he can spin Odalis for something this summer.  No team is picking up that option though.  Declined.

Jason Isringhausen - $8MM.  Assuming Izzy stays healthy, the Cards will be happy to pick this one up.  So far, so good in the early going.  Quite a recovery for a guy thought to be finished last August.  Exercised.

Your turn - where do you disagree?  Abreu, Dunn?

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I'd pick up the Abreu option but I'd trade him. Melky is going to come around, We have Tabata waiting in the wings and tearing up in the minors, same goes for Bronson Sardhina. Even if the yankees have to pick up the half of the contract it would be worth it if they could get a good catching or pitching prospect. With Abreu's walk rate and his defense and the ability to steal bases, he would be a steal for $8-10 million.

I wouldn't be shocked if Byrd's option is picked up, maybe only to trade him. His 2006 was killed by a very high BABIP and low strand rate. His LD% increased but then again so did his ground ball %. I think it's likely, even given his age, that 2007 will be better than 2006 for him. He's a relative bargain at $8M, especially for an NL team.

TheHall brings up a good point about Abreu and Yankees in general. They've shown a willingness with Sheffield to pick up the option and then trade a player. This is essentially a way that they can buy prospects from other teams, without it looking as bad as them just calling up teams and offering plain cash for their prospects.

I have a slight fear that the commisioner's office won't allow an Abreu trade where the Yankees include more than a couple million though, so they may not be able to pick up any prospects of value.

Abreu would only be a couple of million overpriced. They could decline and try and resign him, or exercise and trade him (I HATE when they do that, just another way to exploit their money advantage). I can see them keeping him because of his high value in non power departments like OBP and baserunning.

Odalis is not likely to be traded. The money going from the Dodgers to the Royals is contingent on him staying with the Royals, so any team wanting to trade for him(excluding the Dodgers) would have to absorb his full salary for this year. Unless he turns back into 02-04 Odalis, I doubt anyone would want him at that price. I still remember when Odalis took a no-hitter into the 7th against the mets in 04...after the game he said, "One day I'll get one, I just have to be patient." I wonder what happened to him.

Interestingly, BP has him right at $16M for 07 ($13.9M for 08). On the open market, I think Abreu would get about $15-16M if it were a one year deal (but in reality it would be something like $35M/3 or something).

I could see the Cubs being interested, could you?

If the Yanks included $2M, I could see them getting a decent reliever back. If they included $6M+, then you're probably talking about someone like a team's #2 or #3 pitching prospect.


I think it will depend on how Melky does this year. If he improves offensively, I could see him in right and the Yankees picking up a power hitting 1B.

lih, where'd you find that info about Perez? Just asking because mlbcontracts.blogspot.com just says that KC will have to pay LA $.75M for the 08 option if they trade him.

Could you imagine the Yanks losing A-Rod, Posada, and Abrea? If that extreme circumstance happens, there is no way they could recover from that. Hell, losing 2/3 of that would be a major hit. It will be interesting to see the team the Yankees have next year, both with the hitters and pitchers.

The Yankees have too much an advantage Texas paying so much of the contract. I suspect that if he wants to stay, they'll work out something that doesn't void the Texas payments.

Perhaps a one-year, $40M extension for 2011 paid out over time or something like that.

I doubt Posada will leave too, but I was never a fan of his defense. If the others stay, I would be ok iwth him leaving.

Posada's defense has been exceptional as of late, and he can also handle pitchers very well, which is something I can't say for Nieves. He calls a good game, provides a great bat, and last year he was basically the second best defensive catcher in the league, behind Pudge. He will stay.

I know it's not technically an option but Alex Rodriguez' situation is at least somewhat similar...

I was wondering what anyone thought of a Hideki Matsui for Andy LaRoche trade?

Also, Marcus Giles' salary is a highway robbery on Kevin Towers' part. The San Diego discount amazes me.

Posada's arm is good, but I can't stand his refusal to block the plate. Over and over again he goes into the infield and tries to reach behind him to tag the runner. The most notable time I believe was in the 2003 World Series. It drives me crazy. What drives me even more crazy is the announcers' refusal to even mention it.

It will be hard to find out, but I remember thinking at the time that if he had blocked the plate, the Yankees could have won the series (or at least been in position to force a game 7).

Don't get me wrong, I love the offense from a catcher, and love seeing home grown players spending their entire careers in pinstripes. But I don't think he'd be missed as much as people think. It would be cheaper to get a .700 OPS catcher and find someone to add .100 points of OPS to 1B than to keep Posada. Plus that player would play every day.

I think with the Cubs spending all this money, they wont be signing A-Rod. But I think the south siders might. They could possibly lose Jermaine Dye, Mark Beurhle, and Tadahito Iguchi. So they are going to have some money to spend. Put A-rod at short and move Uribe over to second.

I think everyone can agree that Shaun Green is the easiest decision of all :)

I like the call on Abreu. Brian Giles is a great comparison. Cut him loose.

The best shortstops available on next year's free agent market are David Eckstein and John McDonald if Uribe's option is picked up. That's historically bad.

"The best shortstops available on next year's free agent market are David Eckstein and John McDonald if Uribe's option is picked up. That's historically bad."

Making the timing for Alex Rodriguez to opt out even more enticing.

I seem to remember Posada stepping out infront of the plate and getting BLOWN UP by mark texeira last year when the yankees were down like 10 runs. They got the out and Jorge eventually capped the comeback with a walk off HR.

W/R to Abreu...I'm still convinced that Yankee fans who expect Melky Cabrera to ever hit well enough to deserve a corner outfield spot are deluding themselves. Yeah, he's young, and showed decent patience last season, but he looks like he's got about as much power as Juan Pierre. Which would be OK if he were a CF, but that's where Damon's at for another two years. He posted a .391 SLG last season, and while off to a slow start all the way around this year, none of his 13 hits have gone for extra bases. Just doesn't look like a Yankee, to me.

If Dunn's option is picked up he has a full no trade clause as well. I would still pick it up and then see if he could be extended for four or five more years at similar dollars.

I agree with bobo that Byrd is probably picked up; it will give Cleveland much more flexibility in the following scenarios. Everything is up in the air on CC and the kids, and I see these possibilities...

A) Byrd picked up, Carmona & Miller ready to take over, CC resigns ~ C.Lee traded. After 08 rotation is CC/Jake/Sowers/Carmona/Miller

B) Byrd picked up, only one of Carmona/Miller looking good, CC doesnt resign ~ CC traded. 09 rotation is Jake/Lee/Sowers/Carmona or Miller plus FA or trade

C) Byrd picked, neither Carmona/Miller looking great but team makes playoffs in 07 so they want to make sure they field the winning rotation again and Byrd provides Vet leadership. This doesnt matter on CC's status, but if he doesnt re-sign we would be able to trade him at the deadline to get what we can if it makes sense. 09 rotation has flexibility.

Having Byrd for one more year wouldnt hurt unless the kids just show they are overpowering this year and CC resigns ~ at that point Paul can just be traded for whatever in return. Not picking up Byrd would mean that they wouldnt have the flexibility to trade CC at the break if he doesnt resign.

Abreu's option has already been exercised, I believe.

"Abreu could have exercised his no-trade clause and killed the deal, as his agent said recently that any team expecting to acquire Abreu would have to pick up his $16 million option for 2008 in order for a trade to go through."

I don't remember ever reading anything that contradicted that.

From:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2534459

Reading on Cotts it seems that the Yankees are "just reponsible for the option or buyout." So its 2 or 16. Even if they renegotiated with him and had to pay the 2, it would be splitting hairs (they'd have to sign for under 14 to even break even, and several more years). They will likely exercise it.

"I don't remember ever reading anything that contradicted that."

Um, how about the rest of the article:

"However, the Yankees wanted Abreu under the expectation that they would be paying only the $22 million owed on his deal through 2007 and told the Phillies to negotiate any deal required to waive the no-trade clause, ESPN's Buster Olney reported.


A source with knowledge of the deal told ESPN Insider Jerry Crasnick that the Phillies will pay Abreu $1.5 million in exchange for waiving the no-trade clause and accepting the condition that the Yankees are not obligated to pick up his option for 2008."


Ha, well, see, I can explain that little mishap based on two things:

1) I'm at work, so opening up windows really big to read the whole thing probably isn't a great idea

and 2) I'm retarded.

I remembered the stipulation, googled it, found the article, and saw all I needed to see. Whoops. :)

Bobo, I think you might be right about the contract. I was remembering it wrong:
"While in Las Vegas to watch the Dodgers' triple-A team, [Ned Colletti] worked the phones and found a taker for pitcher Odalis Perez, sending the left-hander to the Kansas City Royals along with two Class-A pitchers and a vault full of cash. The Dodgers will pay Perez a $4.5-million signing bonus due in November and give the Royals between $7.5 and $9 million, depending on whether Perez remains in Kansas City through next season."

I still don't think he has much value though.

"same goes for Bronson Sardhina."

Haw haw haw haw. Wake me up when Eric Duncan gets there too.

I think A-Rod will opt out. He's got what, 3 years left on his deal? He could get an 8 year, $180 million deal after this year the way he's been going. Getting a new contract at age 31 is better than doing it at age 34.

IF the Yankees want to keep ARod (and that's big if - if he fails again in the postseason, fair or not, he'll be gone), they'll get something done.

It's so irresponsible of the mainstream media to ignore the issue of the Rangers' payments when talking about him opting out.

Anyway, the common opinion is that ARod would get a 6 year deal in the $120M range. With this start, let's bump that up to $140M over 7.

Currently the Yankees are paying $16M a year from 2008-2010. ARod is receiving $27M a year though. The Yankees could give him a 4 year extension for, say, $85M. ARod would make $166M from 2008 to 2014, which is more than he'd get on the open market.

The Yankees would only have to pay $133M, which is less than he'd get in my scenario above (if he opted out).

Or, they could do something like a one year extension for $40M.

Then ARod gets $121M for 4 years (2008-2011) - way more than market value, but the Yankees only pay $88M, less than market value. Then he can easily go get a 3 year contract for $15M a season or whatever.


Basically, the Texas payments give such a huge advantage to the Yankees that if they want him to stay and he wants to stay, there's virtually no way they can't work something out. They can easily find a way for ARod to make more than he would on the open market while having the Yankees pay less than market value.

The more I think about it, the more amazed I am that Cashman got Texas to pay so much. Incredible.

Did you seriously just say the Yankees sign him to a 1 year 40 million dollar contract? I've heard so really crazy things on this board, but that takes the cake. Arod would be making more than the DRays, Marlins, Nats, and Pirates. As much as i think Arod is a great player, he is not worth a $4M for a year. Imagine if he got hurt, Steinbrenner would be the laughing stock of league, again.

Why not? If you think the point of my post was that he is worth $40M a year, you completely missed it.

The point is, with a suitable extension, everyone can be happy. ARod makes more than he would have if he opted out, and the Yankees pay less than they'd have to if he were a free agent.

Or they can just give him a $25M bonus or something. The point is avoiding having him opt-out so Texas has to keep paying.

Bobo I dont think you can assume that if the Yankees want to keep him then they will get it done. What if he has a monster season, an average post season, or even a great one for that matter, and just basically tells all the yankee fans to fuck off. He seems like a sensitive guy, I know if i was putting up 35/120 and getting booed at my home stadium I would get the hell out ASAP. You may be right, he may stay, and they may extend him, but still, there is always a chance that they try to keep him and he says ive had enough of these fans and all of the negative media and he just leaves. And the money isnt the only issue either, because there are probably 10 teams willing to pay him huge dollars. He might opt for the huge dollars somewhere that he can be happy for the rest of his career instead of in the Bronx, where he knows that the second things go wrong everybody turns on you.

"Basically, the Texas payments give such a huge advantage to the Yankees that if they want him to stay and he wants to stay, there's virtually no way they can't work something out. They can easily find a way for ARod to make more than he would on the open market while having the Yankees pay less than market value."

Yeah, but the part you dont mention is that, if they want him to stay, but he wants to leave, then the Texas payments mean absolutely nothing. If he wants to stay, sure it will get done, but if he doesnt he holds all the cards.

Of course - if he desperately wants to leave, then he can. I think it's unlikely that the Yankees will really want him and he will really want to leave (or vice versa). If the Yankees do well and he plays well in the postseason, the attraction should be mutual.

So then there is still the issue of the money. Yeah, even if he wants to stay, if the Yankees refuse to extend him or give him a bonus or something, he can leave for more money.

But my point is, assuming the Yankees are willing to pay 80-90% of market value (which seems pretty likely if he's on good terms in NY at the end of the season), then nobody can come close to topping the Yankees' offer.

In my scenario above ($40M 1 year extension), he'd be making over $30M a year. Nobody's going to pay him that. But for the Yankees to do it, less than $22M per year comes out of their pockets.

And that's why if he has a good season and postseason, there's virtually no chance of him opting out.

After all this add 40 million here, add a couple years here, we can go back to the only other man with a say in this opt-out clause Brian Cashman,

The Yankees don't intend to offer Alex Rodriguez a contract extension, leaving him the option of opting out of his deal after the season and becoming a free agent.

"Alex has a significant contract. The most significant in baseball history," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday. "He has a decision to make. It's in his contract. It's a right he's earned."

Right, because it would make sense to say "Sure, at the end of the year we're going to renegotiate with Alex and give him a ton more money, just so we can take advantage of the gift the Texas Rangers gave us." What else is he going to say?

He made a comment when Rivera wanted to be extended along the lines of "no, I can't do it now, because then players will they can make demands that we'll give in to."


But I forgot...all GMs always tell the media exactly what they're going to do 8 months in advance...and they never do the opposite or change their minds.

I think with the Cubs A-Rod won't be a realistic get for the club...I like the middle of the infield option of Theriot and DeRosa myself...

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