Rays Rumors

The Astros, Pirates and Rays have completed a big three-team trade. Each team’s end of the deal breaks down as follows…

• The Pirates send right-hander Mike Burrows to the Astros and receive second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and left-hander Mason Montgomery from the Rays.
• The Rays send second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and left-hander Mason Montgomery to the Pirates, receiving outfielder Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito from the Astros.
• The Astros send Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito to the Rays and receive right-hander Mike Burrows from the Pirates.

The Bucs have a full 40-man roster and will have to make two corresponding moves, which they have not announced yet.

Lowe is the biggest name of the bunch here. The 31-year-old has spent the past eight seasons with the Rays. In that time, he has established himself as one of the better power-hitting second basemen in the sport. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has hit 151 home runs. Among primary second basemen, only Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve are ahead of him in that category, with Semien having 178 homers in that span and Altuve 158.

That power production from Lowe is even more impressive when one considers that he did that in about one thousand fewer plate appearances than Altuve and about 1,600 shy of Semien. But that also demonstrates the main knock on Lowe, which is that he has had trouble staying on the field. Due to various injuries over the years, he has only twice been able to play more than 107 games in a season. Lower back problems have been a frequent issue but he’s also hit the injured list due to a right shin bone bruise, a right triceps contusion, a right patella fracture, a right oblique strain, left oblique tightness and left ankle/foot tendinitis.

Earlier in his career, the Rays moved Lowe between second base and the outfield corners. Presumably because of the injuries, he hasn’t been sent out to the grass since 2022. He has been almost exclusively a second baseman lately, with a few stints at first as well. His second base defense was once around league average but seems to have slipped as he has battled those injuries and pushed into his 30s. He was given a minus-13 grade from Outs Above Average this year and minus-14 from Defensive Runs Saved.

There’s also a bit of concern from his declining plate discipline. He has always had a high strikeout rate but offset that earlier in his career with solid walk rates. That hasn’t been the case lately, as Lowe walked in fewer than 8% of his plate appearances in each of the past two years.

The power has still been enough to carry the profile. Dating back to the start of 2024, he has 52 home runs and a .251/.309/.475 batting line. That translates to a 118 wRC+, indicating his offense has been 18% above league average overall. Despite the defensive shortcomings, FanGraphs credited him with four wins above replacement in 241 games over that two-year span. He is going to make $11.5MM in 2026 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

Though Lowe is an imperfect player, he will be a big upgrade for the Pirates. They had almost no offensive prowess to speak of in 2025. Spencer Horwitz was the only Pirate to produce a wRC+ higher than 101.

While the Bucs had a clear lack of offense, they have a huge pile of pitching talent. Paul Skenes is the clear headliner but they have plenty of other exciting young arms in the mix. After several years struggling to return to contention, the Bucs came into this winter looking to get aggressive in upgrading the offense.

They made some spirited attempts in free agency, making competitive offers to Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor before they re-signed with the Phillies and Mariners respectively. Even if the Bucs had succeeded in signing one of those guys or someone else, it always seemed likely that they would use their stockpile of young arms to bolster the offense. This is the second such trade of the offseason for the Bucs. They sent Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox earlier this month as part of a five-player swap, with outfielder Jhostynxon García coming back to Pittsburgh.

Lowe could jump in as the regular second baseman. The Bucs used guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales there in 2025 without anyone taking firm hold of the position. Given Lowe’s age, injury issues and defensive shortcomings, it’s also possible he sees significant time in the designated hitter slot. That would leave open some playing time for those guys, though Triolo and Gonzalez could also factor in at shortstop or third base.

Since Lowe is going into the final year of his deal, he’s just a one-year upgrade for the Pirates, though it’s possible they could make him a qualifying offer at season’s end if he has a healthy and productive campaign.

They had added yet another guy to their position player mix with Mangum, though he’s not likely to be a massive lineup boost. He got into 118 games with the Rays this year as a speed-and-defense guy with a contact-based approach. His 15% strikeout rate was lower than league average but he also only drew walks at a 4% clip and hit only three home runs. His .296/.330/.368 batting line translated to a 95 wRC+ but he stole 27 bases and got strong defensive grades in all three outfield slots.

Mangum has exactly one year of service time, meaning he’s at least two years from arbitration and five years from free agency. He also has a full slate of options, so he could be sent to Triple-A to serve as depth. The Bucs should have Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in two outfield spots. One spot is available with guys like García, Jack Suwinski, Marco Luciano and others in the mix. Mangum could push for a regular role or a gig as a fourth outfielder, or he could end up in Triple-A, as mentioned. A lengthy optional assignment could delay his trajectory to arbitration and/or free agency.

The Bucs also picked up a reliever in Montgomery. The southpaw tossed 55 2/3 innings for the Rays over the past two years, allowing 5.01 earned runs per nine. He struck out 32.5% of batters faced and got grounders on 45% of balls in play but also gave out walks at a big 13% clip. He has a high-90s fastball, as well as a cutter and a slider, but control is clearly an issue.

He is also optionable and can be controlled for five years, so the Bucs can see if they can help him harness his stuff, without having to commit a big league roster spot. Pittsburgh’s southpaw relief contingent is currently headlined by Gregory Soto, with Evan Sisk and now Montgomery also in the mix.

In order to get those players, the Pirates are making a notable subtraction from their rotation. Burrows, 26, was an 11th-round pick and spent many years in the middle range of Pittsburgh’s top 30 prospects. However, he has increased his stock lately. He has thus far tossed 99 1/3 innings in his big league career with a 3.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 41.9% ground ball rate. He has averaged in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a slider, curveball and changeup. He has also thrown 83 2/3 innings in the minors over the past two seasons with a 4.20 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.

The Pirates are hoping that their trades this offseason have bolstered their lineup and bullpen, while the rotation could still be a strength despite the subtractions. Even without Oviedo and Burrows, they still have Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington and others in the mix. Jared Jones is still recovering from Tommy John surgery but should rejoin that group at some point in 2026.

Burrows is a sensible addition for the Astros. Injuries tore apart their rotation in 2026. Luis Garcia required yet another elbow surgery and was jettisoned from the roster. Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter all required Tommy John surgery during the 2025 season and are facing lengthy absences.

In addition to the injury issues, they also lost Framber Valdez to free agency and don’t appear likely to re-sign him. That’s because they are reportedly hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2026. RosterResource pegs them for a CBT number of around $220MM, which is roughly $24MM shy of the $244MM base threshold. That gives them some ability to do things but they also have other needs on the roster and presumably want to keep some powder dry for midseason additions.

Put it all together and the Astros came into the winter with a rotation consisting of Hunter Brown and a series of question marks. Cristian Javier should have a spot next year but he had middling results in 2025 after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. They can’t count on Lance McCullers Jr. for anything after he posted a 6.51 ERA in his return from a lengthy injury absence. Jason Alexander is in the mix but is a veteran journeyman. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, Colton Gordon, AJ Blubaugh and Miguel Ullola are on the 40-man but they’re all either unestablished at the big league level or struggled with injuries in 2025.

Adding to the rotation was obviously necessary but the budgetary situation has impacted their approach. Instead of going after top free agents, they have given modest deals to reclamation project Nate Pearson and KBO returnee Ryan Weiss.

Burrows also fits into the low-cost mode. He has less than a year of service time, meaning he’s still years away from arbitration and even further from free agency. He also still has an option season remaining, so the Astros can send him to Triple-A throughout the year if other guys push him for a rotation spot.

To get that affordable rotation upgrade, they are subtracting from their outfield mix and their long-term pitching pipeline. Melton, now 25, debuted in 2025 but didn’t hit the ground running. He hit just .157/.234/.186 this year, though in a tiny sample of 78 plate appearances. A right ankle sprain cost him a decent chunk of the season, as he only got into 67 games between Triple-A and the majors.

His minor league work is naturally more impressive. Prior to this trade, many outlets considered him the top prospect in Houston’s system. He’s considered a plus outfielder and baserunner. Though his 2025 was shortened by injury, he swiped at least 30 bags in the two previous minor league seasons. In 1,146 minor league plate appearances, he has a 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 48 home runs, .255/.334/.462 line and 110 wRC+.

Though Melton had reached the big leagues, he was part of a somewhat jumbled outfield mix consisting of Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo, with Yordan Alvarez also in the mix from time to time when he’s not the designated hitter. Meyers has been in some trade rumors but Melton was perhaps more appealing to the Rays. Meyers is down to two years of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $3.5MM salary next year.

Melton has less than a year of service time, so he comes with six full years of control. He also has two option seasons remaining, so the Rays can keep him in Triple-A if he hasn’t yet earned a big league job with them. The Rays effectively swap him into their outfield mix for Mangum. He’ll compete for playing time with Chandler Simpson, Josh Lowe, Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley, Jonny DeLuca, Richie Palacios and others.

Brito is also an attractive piece but he’s farther away. An amateur signing out of Venezuela, he has limited professional experience, having not yet reached the Double-A level. Thus far, he has shown big strikeout stuff but he’s clearly still working on controlling his stuff. He has thrown 103 minor league innings over 2024 and 2025 with a 2.36 ERA, walking 11.7% of batters faced but also punching them out at a 35% clip. Baseball America had him ranked as the #3 prospect in the Astros’ system before the deal.

The Rays have been busy today, as they have also sent Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. This deal is also future-focused for them, as they have sent out three big leaguers for two prospects. Given the young and controllable talent they acquired, it’s possible this is some kind of setback for a rebuild.

On the other hand, Lowe was already a classic Rays trade candidate, as he is relatively expensive for them and nearing free agency. Baz isn’t quite the same, as he can still be controlled for three more seasons, but he is projected for a $3.1MM salary next year. Maybe the Rays will now pivot to investing in the roster, now that they’ve saved some money and bolstered their farm system.

Given that this deal involves three teams and half a dozen players, most of whom are young and controllable for years to come, it’s going to take quite a while to determine whether it was wise for the clubs involved. For now, it aligns with their immediate needs.

The Astros have bolstered their rotation without having to pay big bucks. They have subtracted one of their top prospects in Melton, but from an area of the roster with some depth. Brito is another notable prospect gone but he’s been replaced by a pitcher who can provide more help in the near term.

The Rays have saved a bit of money by trading Lowe. They also subtracted a couple of other players but one of them was in a crowded outfield mix with some fourth outfielder tendencies, the other a clearly talented but volatile reliever.

The Pirates were widely expected to move starting pitching to try to add to their position player group and this is the second time this winter they have executed a trade with that aim. There’s a bit of risk in giving up a controllable starter for an injury-prone bat with just one year of control and a couple of fringier pieces, but they needed to do something for the lineup and free agency was proving challenging. They have gone the trade route instead and used their area of greatest strength to hopefully patch over weaknesses elsewhere.

Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the elements of the deal. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com and Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com reported that the deal was done but pending medical reviews. Rome and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the deal was done.

Photos courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Kim Klement Neitzel, Nathan Ray Seebeck, Charles LeClaire, Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images