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Rangers Rumors

Rangers To Activate Tyler Mahle On Friday

By Anthony Franco | September 17, 2025 at 10:29pm CDT

The Rangers will activate Tyler Mahle from the 60-day injured list for Friday’s series opener against the Marlins. He is listed as the probable starter against a yet to be announced pitcher for Miami. Texas has a full 40-man roster and will need to designate someone for assignment or transfer one of Marcus Semien, Nathan Eovaldi or Sam Haggerty to the 60-day injured list.

Mahle makes his return from a three-month shoulder injury. He landed on the injured list in the middle of June and was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain a few weeks later. Mahle was shut down entirely for a few weeks and went over two months without getting into a game. He began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Round Rock in the beginning of September. He was bombed for five runs in an inning during his first appearance. He has since reeled off 6 1/3 scoreless frames with nine punchouts and three hits.

Texas will get a pair of starts from Mahle to finish the season. He’ll take on Miami and then one of Minnesota or Cleveland in the final week. It’s probably too late to make a difference in the playoff picture. The Rangers entered the week within a game and a half of a playoff spot. They had a chance to make up ground on the Astros, who were holding the last Wild Card position.

Houston instead ripped off a three-game sweep that probably drives the nail in the coffin. Texas has fallen 4.5 back of the Red Sox and Mariners (now tied for the AL’s last two Wild Card spots) with nine games to play. They’re two games behind the Guardians, who have the best chance to unseat one of the American League’s top six teams. The Rangers probably need to go at least 8-1 to have a shot at a playoff berth.

Mahle made 14 starts earlier in the season. He pitched to a 2.34 earned run average through 77 innings despite a modest 18.2% strikeout percentage. The 30-year-old righty has been injured for the majority of his two-year free agent deal. Texas knew Mahle would miss the first half of last season as he rehabbed from a May 2023 Tommy John procedure. He returned last August but only made it through three starts before being shut down for the year with shoulder discomfort.

Even if Mahle’s return doesn’t make a significant dent in the standings, he’ll welcome the opportunity to take on a pair of big league lineups before he heads back to free agency. He’ll be limited to one- or two-year offers again because of the durability questions. Mahle’s velocity has been down a tick in his Triple-A rehab work, though that’s probably attributable to his abbreviated ramp-up as he tried to get back on the mound for a playoff push.

On the minor league side, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that Kumar Rocker is scheduled to throw two innings for Round Rock tomorrow. The former third overall pick has not pitched in a Triple-A game since August 7. Texas instead has had him work on changing his release point outside of a game setting for the past six weeks. The Rangers are leaving the door open to recalling Rocker to the MLB roster before the end of the season. He opened the year in the rotation but was knocked around for a 5.74 ERA in a frustrating follow-up to last year’s promising return from Tommy John surgery.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Kumar Rocker Tyler Mahle

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Rangers Activate Adolis Garcia

By Nick Deeds | September 14, 2025 at 11:54am CDT

The Rangers announced this morning that they’ve activated outfielder Adolis Garcia from the injured list. Dustin Harris was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock to create a spot on the active roster.

Garcia, 32, has spent the entire month so far on the injured list due to a quad strain. The veteran has had a tough year this season, hitting just .235/.277/.408 with a wRC+ of 87. While he’s hit 18 homers with 13 steals and even posted a career-low 24.8% strikeout rate, walking at just a 5.1% clip with his lowest hard contact rate since he became a regular player in 2021 has led Garcia to post below-average numbers for a second straight season.

While Garcia’s numbers haven’t been anywhere near the level they were from 2021-23, when he made two All-Star appearances and won a World Series with Texas, he’s actually improved to around league average as the season has gone on. Since June, Garcia is hitting .254/.292/.432 with a wRC+ of 99,  That’s unlikely to be enough production to stop Garcia from being a non-tender candidate this winter, but with the Rangers still hanging on in the playoff picture it’s valuable to get a league average bat with power and speed back into the lineup for the final weeks of the season.

Garcia is in the lineup and batting fourth today, and he’ll likely push Michael Helman and Alejandro Osuna into a platoon with each other going forward. With the Rangers just two games back in both the Wild Card and AL West races, the Rangers will hope that Garcia can help make up for the ongoing absences of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Evan Carter from the lineup—not to mention the club’s losses in the rotation like Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.

It seemed as though the Rangers might be in for another injury scare last night when Chris Martin abruptly exited last night’s win over the Mets. Fortunately, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provided a positive update on Martin’s status after the game. Grant noted that while Martin had felt some “tingling” in his hands during last night’s appearance, the Rangers do not believe the situation will require a trip to the IL for Martin. That’s surely a relief for Texas, as an IL stint at this stage in the calendar would end Martin’s regular season even if he missed only the minimum time. Martin has been a key piece of the Rangers’ bullpen when healthy this year, with a 2.54 ERA and 3.30 FIP in 39 innings of work.

As for Harris, the 26-year-old made his big league debut with the Rangers last year and has appeared in just 21 big league games over the past two seasons. A .217/.280/.435 hitter across 50 trips to the plate, Harris has experience at all three outfield spots in the majors and has showed solid pop in his bat despite a 30% strikeout rate. He has some experience at the infield corners in the minor leagues as well, but has stuck exclusively to the outfield in the majors. He’ll head back to Triple-A and wait for his next opportunity, which at this point may not come until next season.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Adolis Garcia Chris Martin Dustin Harris

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Rangers Sign Donovan Solano, Cal Quantrill To Minor League Deals

By Anthony Franco | September 9, 2025 at 6:51pm CDT

The Rangers have signed infielder Donovan Solano and right-hander Cal Quantrill to minor league contracts, the team informed reporters (including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News). Both players had recently been released — Solano by the Mariners, Quantrill by the Braves.

Solano follows in the footsteps of former M’s teammate Dylan Moore. He signed with Texas days after being released by Seattle in late August. Marcus Semien had just landed on the injured list, and Texas lost Corey Seager to an appendectomy a couple days later. Moore was quickly called up and is usually in the lineup when the Rangers face a left-handed starting pitcher. Texas also has Rowdy Tellez operating as a bench bat after signing him following a release from Seattle in June.

The 37-year-old Solano provides veteran depth in that injury-riddled infield. Cody Freeman and Josh Smith are the primary middle infield duo. First baseman Jake Burger has been injured three times this year. Moore and Ezequiel Duran are ahead of Solano as right-handed bench bats. Solano might be the first one up if another player goes down before Seager returns, as Texas hasn’t wanted to give Justin Foscue (their only position player on optional assignment) much playing time.

Solano signed a $3.5MM free agent contract with Seattle over the winter. His .252/.295/.344 slash across 69 games was below his typical level. Solano had been an average or better hitter each season from 2019-24. Seattle didn’t start him anywhere other than first base, but he has plenty of experience at second and third base as well.

Quantrill is on his third team of the year. The veteran starter signed with the Marlins for $3.5MM over the offseason. Quantrill struggled to a 5.50 earned run average over 24 starts. Miami didn’t find a taker at the trade deadline and placed the former eighth overall pick on waivers last month. The Braves placed a claim that got the Fish off the hook for the rest of the salary.

It proved an ill-advised move for Atlanta. They only gave Quantrill two starts, over which he was blasted for 12 runs in eight innings. The Braves released him last week. Quantrill now has an ERA a little north of 6.00 across 117 2/3 frames. His 16.6% strikeout rate is well below average. Quantrill throws a lot of strikes but has become increasingly susceptible to the home run over the past couple seasons. He’s now three years removed from a career season in Cleveland, when he took the ball 32 times and posted a 3.38 ERA through 186 1/3 innings.

The injury bug for Texas has carried into the rotation. Tyler Mahle will need at least one more rehab start as he works back from a shoulder injury. Nathan Eovaldi probably won’t be back this year due to a strained rotator cuff. Jon Gray is done for the season. Texas has gotten solid work from lefty Jacob Latz, who has stepped in as the fifth starter behind Jacob deGrom, Merrill Kelly, Jack Leiter and Patrick Corbin.

Any other injury, at least until Mahle returns, would essentially leave them with no one who can step in as a fifth starter. Kumar Rocker is out of the short-term picture as he works on mechanical issues. Tampa Bay claimed swingman Caleb Boushley off waivers this week. Quantrill isn’t a high-upside pickup but is at least stretched out and could make a spot start if anyone else goes down.

Texas has managed to stay within a game and a half in the Wild Card race despite the injuries. Neither Solano nor Quantrill would be eligible for the playoff roster if they qualify. They’ll each be free agents again at season’s end. These additions are solely about adding organizational depth for the next three weeks. Texas would owe either player the prorated $740K league minimum for however long they spend in the majors if they promote them.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Cal Quantrill Donovan Solano

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Rays Claim Caleb Boushley

By Steve Adams | September 9, 2025 at 2:11pm CDT

The Rays have claimed right-hander Caleb Boushley off waivers from the Rangers, per a team announcement. Fellow righty Brian Van Belle was transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to make roster space.

Boushley, 32 next month, has pitched a career-high 43 1/3 innings with Texas in 2025 but has been tagged for an unsightly 6.02 earned run average in that time. However, he’s posted respectable strikeout and walk rates of 21.2% and 7.3% in that time, and he’s done a nice job keeping the ball in the park (1.04 HR/9). Boushley has been plagued by a sky-high .374 average on balls in play, which has surely contributed to his struggles in terms of stranding baserunners (just 58.7%).

Tampa Bay has placed two relievers — Van Belle and Mason Englert — on the injured list within the past five days. Boushley adds a fresh arm to the bunch, bringing those decent rate stats and the ability to be optioned to his new organization. He’ll give the club some flexible depth that is stretched out enough to throw multiple innings, if need be. Boushley has just one outing greater than an inning so far this month, but he tossed three innings of long relief with the Rangers as recently as Aug. 20.

Boushley didn’t make his big league debut until he was already 29 years old (with the Brewers in 2023). As such, despite being on the cusp of his 32nd birthday, he can be controlled for a full six seasons. Given his minimal track record, it’s unlikely that’s a prominent consideration right now, but if he impresses the Rays enough to stick on the 40-man roster this winter (or to re-sign as a minor league free agent in the event that he is cut loose), it could become part of the thinking in 2026.

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Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Transactions Brian Van Belle Caleb Boushley

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Rangers Shut Down Josh Sborz For Rest Of 2025 Season

By Mark Polishuk | September 7, 2025 at 12:29pm CDT

Josh Sborz’s 2025 season will end without any big league action, as Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters that Sborz has been shut down from throwing.  Sborz underwent right shoulder debridement surgery last November and didn’t return to game action until he tossed two-thirds of an inning with Triple-A Round Rock on July 12.

The right-hander’s rehab assignment had multiple stops and starts, and Sborz finished with a 5.25 ERA over 12 combined innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  Beyond the inflated ERA and the walk rate that was much higher than usual, Bochy made note of Sborz’s velocity drop — the reliever was averaging only 91.7 mph on his fastball, which is well beneath his 95.1 mph average from 2024.  Sborz isn’t dealing with any new physical issues, but there wasn’t enough time left on the calendar to get him fully ramped up, so the Rangers will instead put Sborz on the shelf until the start of Spring Training.

It is undoubtedly a frustrating outcome for Sborz, who has now seen essentially two full years of his career spoiled by his bothersome right shoulder.  He was limited to 16 1/3 innings with Texas in 2024 due to four different IL stints related to rotator cuff strains and shoulder fatigue, and the hope was that his surgery would correct the issue once and for all.  The initial projection was that Sborz would miss the first 2-3 months of the 2025 season, yet a slower-than-expected throwing progression set his clock back and resulted in an entirely lost year.

With elbow problems also limiting Sborz to 22 1/3 innings in 2022, the right-hander’s tenure in Arlington consists of a 4.86 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate, and 10.0% walk rate over 143 appearances.  Sborz’s 3.46 SIERA over that same stretch is probably a better reflection of his overall performance, even if Sborz has had a tendency to hurt himself by allowing home runs.  Despite the inconsistent results, Sborz will be fondly remembered in Texas for his 2023 postseason, as he posted an 0.75 ERA over 12 playoff innings to help the Rangers capture the World Series.

The two injury-plagued seasons have coincided with Sborz’s first two years of arbitration eligibility.  He avoided the arb process by agreeing to a $1.1MM salary for 2025, and he’ll get only a minimal raise above the number for 2026.  The dollars are small enough that Texas will probably still tender Sborz a contract if the team thinks he’ll be fully ready for next year, though a non-tender and then a re-signing on a non-guaranteed deal is a possibility.

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Texas Rangers Josh Sborz

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Rangers Select Carl Edwards Jr., Designate Caleb Boushley

By Mark Polishuk | September 7, 2025 at 11:12am CDT

The Rangers have selected the contract of right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. from Triple-A Round Rock, according to multiple beat writers.  To create space on both the 28-man and 40-man rosters, Texas designed right-hander Caleb Boushley for assignment.

Edwards’ 2025 season has consisted of two big league games with the Angels, a brief stint in the Mexican League, and 15 games (and 50 2/3 total innings) at the Triple-A level with the Angels’ and Rangers’ top affiliates.  His time in Mexico ended when the Rangers inked Edwards to a minor league contract in July, and today’s selection is something of a full circle moment in the veteran’s career.  Texas drafted Edwards in the 48th round of the 2011 draft, but he has never appeared in a big league game in a Rangers uniform, as the team dealt him to the Cubs in advance of the 2013 trade deadline.

After making his MLB debut with Chicago in 2015, Edwards became a staple of the Cubs’ bullpen during the 2016-18 seasons, but success has been much more sporadic for Edwards in the intervening years.  Since Opening Day 2019, Edwards has pitched for seven different teams at the Major League level, with a 4.28 ERA over 124 innings in that nomadic stretch.  The righty’s contributions to the last two seasons consisted of just a single game with the Padres in 2024, and then his two games with the Angels earlier this year.

Edwards’ 5.31 ERA over 39 innings at Round Rock doesn’t jump off the page, but his 26% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, and 53.6% grounder rate are more palatable.  The grounder-heavy arsenal has contributed to that inflated ERA, as Edwards has an unlucky .362 BABIP with the Rangers’ Triple-A club.  Though Edwards is best known as a reliever, he has been trying to reinvent himself as a starter during his time in the Mexican League and in the minors, and he has started seven of his eight games in Round Rock.

The Rangers used six different pitchers in yesterday’s 11-0 loss to the Astros, so Edwards is very likely being brought up as an innings-eating long relief option rather than as a candidate for the rotation.  If Edwards does happen to make a spot start, it would make the first start of his 11-year Major League career.

Boushley was one of the pitchers who took the mound in yesterday’s rout and was hit the hardest, allowing five runs to the Astros in an inning of relief work.  If this DFA marks the end of Boushley’s time with the Rangers, he’ll have bookended his stint with five-run appearances, as he was also touched up for five ER over 3 2/3 innings in his Texas debut on April 12.

Over 43 2/3 innings this season, Boushley has an ugly 6.02 ERA but a much more respectable 3.81 SIERA.  Some bad batted-ball luck (.358 BABIP) is to blame, not to mention a 58.7% strand rate.  Boushley’s 7.3% walk rate and 21.2% strikeout rate have been decent, so a rival team exploring the waiver wire might have interest in the righty’s services.  Boushley has two minor league option years remaining, so a waiver claim now could be more designed towards adding some relief depth for 2026 than the remainder of the 2025 campaign.

Boushley had pitched just 6 1/3 big league innings prior to 2025, and he has a 4.60 ERA across 503 1/3 innings (starting 97 of 105 games) at the Triple-A level.  He has a prior outright on his resume, so if he clears waivers, Boushley has the right to reject an outright assignment to Round Rock and instead choose free agency.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Caleb Boushley Carl Edwards Jr.

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Rangers To Place Adolis Garcia On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | September 5, 2025 at 4:39pm CDT

The Rangers are placing Adolis García back on the 10-day injured list, manager Bruce Bochy tells reporters (including Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports). García has been out for the past three days nursing a Grade 2 quad strain. Texas will backdate the placement to September 2, and Bochy suggested he could be back after one more week on the shelf.

Dustin Harris was selected onto the big league roster to backfill the outfield depth. Texas transferred Jon Gray from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. Gray was already known to be out for the season after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.

García suffered the injury while beating out a fielder’s choice on Monday. It didn’t seem especially likely that he’d be able to avoid the injured list. The Rangers preferred to play a man short for a couple games to see if García could at least factor in as a pinch-hitter for this weekend’s huge series against the Astros. That apparently wasn’t going to be on the table. García just returned from a sprained ankle and had hit .368 in his past nine games.

Harris is up to provide an extra man off the bench. The Rangers had outrighted him off the 40-man roster shortly after the trade deadline. Harris had a solid August while in Triple-A, batting .326/.379/.453 across 104 plate appearances. Texas has been forced to stretch their outfield depth with Evan Carter also injured.

29-year-old rookie Michael Helman has taken over center field and has played very well in a limited sample. Alejandro Osuna will get the majority of the right field playing time while García is out. The Rangers are going with Ezequiel Duran in right today because Houston called up rookie left-hander Colton Gordon to start the opener.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Adolis Garcia Dustin Harris Jon Gray

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Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

By Nick Deeds | September 5, 2025 at 10:25am CDT

While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers

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MLBTR Podcast: Aroldis Chapman, And Offseason Possibilities For The Braves, Rangers, Pirates And Marlins

By Darragh McDonald | September 3, 2025 at 11:54pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Red Sox extending Aroldis Chapman (1:10)
  • The Red Sox releasing Walker Buehler, who then signed with the Phillies (4:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What will the Braves do this winter after claiming Ha-Seong Kim? (10:10)
  • What can the Rangers do this winter? (22:05)
  • What can the Pirates do for left field next year? (31:30)
  • Who will the Marlins make available in trades this offseason or at next year’s deadline? (36:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • A Conversation With Pirates GM Ben Cherington — Also The O’s, Zack Wheeler, And The Rangers – listen here
  • The Pohlads Aren’t Selling The Twins, Nathaniel Lowe, And Service Time Manipulation – listen here
  • Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More! – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Texas Rangers Aroldis Chapman Ha-Seong Kim Walker Buehler

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Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

By Nick Deeds | September 3, 2025 at 4:05pm CDT

Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

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