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Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series continues with a look at the Tigers. Detroit entered the season as fringe contenders, but have emerged as the clear best team in the American League and possess MLB's best record overall coming out of the All-Star break. That's been thanks to some surprise breakout performances, as well as the club's top stars playing as expected. The Tigers are one of the most obvious buyers in the sport this trade season, though with a well-balanced roster there are few glaring holes they're desperate to upgrade.

Record: 59-38 (99.0% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield, center field, starting pitching, bullpen help

The Tigers have a well-constructed team without many needs they absolutely must upgrade. With that being said, there's at least some room for improvement virtually everywhere on the roster. A roster full of versatile position players who can be moved around as needed means that the Tigers can afford to be creative in upgrading their lineup this summer, and for a team with an above-average but not necessarily outstanding offense that figures to be a good place to start. Players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry are capable of playing virtually all over the diamond as needed, and while others like Colt Keith and Matt Vierling aren't quite as versatile, they can at least move around a handful of positions to give Detroit some further flexibility.

As presently constructed, the clearest hole in the Tigers' lineup appears to be center field. The combination of Parker Meadows and Vierling simply hasn't gotten it done this year. Both spent time on the injured list early in the season but now sport wRC+ marks of 55 and 50 respectively, although both of those figures come in fairly small sample sizes. That's especially true of Vierling, who has been healthy enough to get into just 13 games this season. Perhaps the Tigers could bet on the pair to find the form they flashed last year if given enough runway, but both hitters have options remaining and the club will surely be looking to maximize this opportunity given the dwindling team control of Tarik Skubal.

Cedric Mullins is a rental who could be available and would raise the floor for the Tigers in the outfield, with a 101 wRC+ this year and at least passable defense (though his bat has gone cold after a huge April). Mullins typically does his best work against right-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ for his career and below-average numbers against fellow lefties, but this season he's actually posted reverse splits with a 140 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances against southpaws as compared to an 86 wRC+ against righties in a larger sample. Perhaps the Tigers would be willing to offer him everyday reps in the outfield, but even in some sort of timeshare with Baez, Meadows, and Vierling, Mullins would be an upgrade for a weak spot in the club's lineup.

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Poll: Which Team Had The Most Impressive First Half?

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The All-Star game is now behind us, and we’re in the lull before games kick back up and the second half begins. There’s still plenty of baseball left to play, but in the meantime we’ll take stock of the state of the 2025 season and weigh which team impressed the most during the first half of the season. A look at some of the league’s top teams:

Detroit Tigers (59-38)

Entering the All-Star break with MLB’s best record is a surefire way to get serious consideration for an accolade like this, but the Tigers are arguably even more impressive than their record lets on given just how much they’ve outperformed their preseason expectations. Fangraphs projected the Tigers for a record of just 83-79, with a  sub-50% chance to make the postseason. Detroit would have to win only 25 games over the season’s final ten weeks in order to beat that projection, thanks to strong performances from surprise All-Stars Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, and Zach McKinstry alongside the ever impressive work of stars like Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal.

Los Angeles Dodgers (58-39)

That the Dodgers have the best record in the National League is practically assumed in recent years, which speaks to the overwhelming dominance of the team Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office have constructed. Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound and putting together another likely MVP campaign, Will Smith is having a career season behind the plate, and bottom-of-the-lineup players like Andy Pages and Hyeseong Kim are contributing. While dominance in Los Angeles is hardly a surprise, it’s nonetheless impressive that they’ve been able to maintain their high standard of play even in spite of the rising tide of competitive teams in the National League, extended slumps from both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and a patchwork rotation that at points in the first half had more Cy Young awards on the injured list than healthy members of its projected Opening Day rotation.

Chicago Cubs (57-39)

The Cubs’ front office entered 2025 feeling pressure after seven years without winning a playoff game and four without so much as a postseason appearance. That helped convince them to swing a trade for superstar Kyle Tucker, who has anchored their lineup alongside breakout MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong. Tucker and Crow-Armstrong get the majority of the attention, but Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and even veteran backstop Carson Kelly have put together strong seasons in their own rights. A pitching staff that lost both of its top starters early has been carried by a strong showing from offseason addition Matthew Boyd. It’s been enough to put them in the driver’s seat of the NL Central, and while that may have been expected entering the season, Chicago has made a statement by entering the second half in position to nab a bye through the Wild Card round.

Houston Astros (56-40)

After getting knocked out of the first round of the playoffs last year and the aforementioned Tucker trade, the Astros were a trendy pick to finally lose their grip on the AL West this year. They’ve answered the doubters impressively, plugging along despite getting virtually no production from Yordan Alvarez—or any other left-handed hitter, for that matter. Isaac Paredes has looked right at home in Daikin Park, and Cam Smith has taken to the majors quite well despite being getting just a handful of games at the Double-A level ahead of his big league debut. The real story of the season for the Astros has been in the rotation, however, as Hunter Brown has stepped up to make himself a true ace and legitimate Cy Young contender in a season where Houston would’ve otherwise had little certainty outside of pending free agent Framber Valdez.

Toronto Blue Jays (55-41)

The narrative surrounding the Blue Jays was such a bleak one entering this season that it’s impossible to ignore how quickly they’ve managed to turn things around. After missing out on the big fish in free agency for the second consecutive year, it seemed entering the season that the questions facing Toronto this summer would be about the future of Ross Atkins as GM and whether or not they’d need to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before the deadline. A resurgent season from George Springer, a career year for Alejandro Kirk, and the breakout of Addison Barger have come together to help push this club to the top of a competitive AL East, however, and with both Guerrero and Kirk locked up long term the Jays should be looking towards brighter days in the future, as well.

Other Options

While those five teams have put together some of the most impressive first halves of the season, they’re far from the only contenders. The Phillies and Mets are locked in a tight battle for control of the NL East, and the starting pitching in Queens has been a pleasant surprise given the contributions of pieces like Griffin Canning (before his season-ending Achilles tear) and Clay Holmes. The Giants and Cardinals both entered this season viewed as potential deadline sellers but have put together strong enough campaigns to remain within the thick of the playoff race.

The Brewers appeared to be a question mark after losing Willy Adames and Devin Williams this offseason, but they’re just one game back of the Cubs in the NL Central and might get even better down the stretch now that Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski are contributing. The Mariners have been able to hang in the playoff picture despite lengthy absences for both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, while the Yankees have overcome significant rotation injuries. The Rays entered the season without even having a proper ballpark and look as strong as ever even after selling off key pieces like Paredes and Tyler Glasnow in recent years.

With so many strong performances in the first half, which team was the most impressive? Have your say in the poll below:

Tigers Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Minor League Contract

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The Tigers signed Geoff Hartlieb to a minors contract and assigned the right-hander to Triple-A Toledo, as per Hartlieb’s MLB.com profile page.  Hartlieb made his debut for Toledo today, tossing 1 1/3 relief innings and picking up the win in the Mud Hens’ 6-1 victory over Omaha (the Royals’ Triple-A club).

It was just two days ago that Hartlieb entered free agency, as he chose to test the market rather than an accept an outright assignment to the Yankees’ Triple-A club.  Hartlieb has been DFA’ed and outrighted several times over the years, and thus has the right to decline any further outrights in favor of free agency.  Just since the start of July, Hartlieb was twice designated for assignment by New York — his first trip to free agency saw him quickly re-sign with the Yankees, but this latest venture now sees Hartlieb land in Detroit.

The 30-year-old Hartlieb has pitched in parts of six Major League seasons, though with only 80 2/3 career innings in the Show.  The first 57 1/3 of those frames came with the Pirates in 2019-20, and Hartlieb has since bounced around for sporadic duty with the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies in addition to his time in the Bronx.  Hartlieb has a 7.92 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and a very high 14.9% walk rate against big league hitters.

His Triple-A numbers are considerably better, as Hartlieb took a 4.17 career ERA in Triple-A ball into today’s outing against Omaha.  This solid production in the minors has consistently gotten Hartlieb looks from clubs in need of relief depth, and the Tigers are the latest team to bring the right-hander aboard.  Hartlieb is out of minor league options, which limits his flexibility if he gets called back up to the majors, and likely means he’ll face future trips to DFA limbo.

Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax

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Virtually every contender is looking for relief help come the deadline each season, and the 2025 campaign figures to be no exception to that. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, two members of the Twins’ bullpen are getting plenty of attention from rival clubs this trade season: closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax. Nightengale highlights the Phillies as one potential suitor, a suggestion that lines up with reporting last week regarding Philadelphia’s interest in the pair, and goes on to list the Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds as other clubs that are intrigued by Minnesota’s impact arms.

It’s not hard to see why teams would have interest in the duo. Duran is the bigger name of the two. The 27-year-old has averaged more than 100 mph on his fastball every season of his career and pairs his impressive 31.0% career strikeout rate with a career ground ball rate of 63.9%. That ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground is hard to match, and Duran’s 2.38 ERA since making his big league debut back in 2022 speaks for itself. Jax, meanwhile, pitched poorly as a starter in his rookie season but has posted a 3.22 ERA with a 2.63 FIP, a 30.3% strikeout rate, and a 50.3% ground ball rate since moving to the bullpen in 2022.

A .391 BABIP has held Jax’s results back this year, but he’s striking out an absurd 38.0% of batters faced while walking 5.8%. Duran, meanwhile, has by far the lowest K-BB% of his career in 2025 but is making up for it with an eye-popping 69.2% ground ball rate. Duran is in the midst of the stronger season and has substantial closing experience that Jax lacks, but either one should bring Minnesota back a haul if traded this summer between their dominance and the fact that they can both be controlled via arbitration through the end of the 2027 season.

Of course, all of this hinges on the Twins actually being interested in selling. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey suggested just a few short weeks ago that the club was not “focusing on” the possibility of selling this summer. Minnesota has gone 11-8 since Falvey made those comments, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them decide to hold onto controllable pieces like Duran and Jax. On the other hand, trading one of the club’s two dominant relievers could make it easier for the club to address other holes in the roster while still retaining the other to serve as one of the sport’s best closers going forward.

Looking at the potential suitors, the Phillies and Reds make a ton of sense as teams that could desperately use reinforcements in the bullpen. Philadelphia’s gamble on Jordan Romano this past winter hasn’t worked out, and a PED suspension for Jose Alvarado means that he’ll not only miss half the year but be ineligible to pitch in the postseason for the Phillies this year. That leaves the club in desperate need of the sort of lockdown relief arm they lost when they allowed both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to walk in free agency last year. As for the Reds, Cincinnati’s closer Alexis Diaz was torched to a 12.00 ERA in six outings before being optioned to Triple-A and eventually traded to Los Angeles, where he’s continued to struggle.

The Cubs and Tigers have less glaring needs at the back of their bullpen, but both figure to be very aggressive this summer as they currently sit positioned for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. Adding a dominant closer at the deadline can be a way to push a good team over the edge and make them favorites in the postseason, and while incumbent closers Daniel Palencia and Will Vest are impressive relievers it’s not hard to see why Chicago or Detroit would want a more proven option in the ninth for a playoff run. As for the Dodgers, the club’s splashy additions of Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates to the back of their bullpen have looked a bit shakier than anticipated, and given how aggressively L.A. prioritized adding relief help in the winter it’s understandable they would continue to do so this summer with both of their star additions sporting ERAs approaching 4.00.

Which Other Draft Picks Are Eligible To Be Traded Before Sunday?

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The Rays made an “early” strike in deadline season yesterday, shipping off their Competitive Balance Round A selection (No. 37 overall) in Sunday’s draft to acquire righty Bryan Baker from the division-rival Orioles. Baker, 30, has had his two worst outings of the season in his final Orioles appearance and last night’s Rays debut — which came just hours after he was “shocked” to learn he was traded and boarded a last-minute flight to meet his new team in Boston — but carried a 2.58 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate through July 5. He comes to the Rays with three additional seasons of club control, as well.

Following the trade, O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged that Thursday’s trade was “earlier than my comfort level” but that the timing of the draft and strength of the return pushed him to make a deal sooner than he’d have preferred (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). It’s feasible that other general managers/president of baseball operations feel similar pressure if presented with opportunities to add an extra pick over the next two-plus days.

As a refresher, Competitive Balance picks are the only picks in the annual amateur draft that are eligible to be traded. They can only be traded one time, meaning the pick the Orioles received for Baker — and the picks the Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox received in trades of Gavin Lux, Josh Naylor and Quinn Priester, respectively — are now locked in place for those clubs. There are still a handful of selections that could be traded, however.

Here’s a rundown of the picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B. MLBTR has confirmed via industry sources that the picks held by the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets in Round A are ineligible to be traded, as they’re technically first-round picks that were dropped down into Competitive Balance Round A as penalty for exceeding the luxury tax by more than $40MM. Similarly, the picks held by the Rays and Brewers in Round B are ineligible to be traded due to the fact that they are compensation for failing to sign last year’s picks in Competitive Balance Round B. Picks that are eligible to be traded are in bold; those ineligible to be moved are in strikethrough font. The deadline to trade any of these eligible picks is 4pm ET on Sunday — two hours prior to the start of this year’s amateur draft.

Round A

  • No. 33 overall: Red Sox (acquired from Brewers in exchange for RHP Quinn Priester)
  • No. 34: Tigers
  • No. 35: Mariners
  • No. 36: Twins
  • No. 37: Orioles (acquired from Rays in exchange for RHP Bryan Baker)
  • No. 38: Mets
  • No. 39: Yankees
  • No. 40: Dodgers
  • No. 41: Dodgers (acquired from Reds in exchange for INF/OF Gavin Lux)
  • No. 42: Rays (acquired from A’s in exchange for LHPs Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez)
  • No. 43: Marlins

Round B

  • No. 66 overall: Guardians
  • No. 67: Rays (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 68: Brewers (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 69: Orioles
  • No. 70: Guardians (acquired from D-backs in exchange for 1B Josh Naylor)
  • No. 71: Royals
  • No. 72: Cardinals
  • No. 73: Pirates
  • No. 74: Rockies

The Tigers are the only clear buyer with a pick that can be traded, and it’s a prominent one. The Mariners and Cardinals are only one game out of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Seattle is expected to act as a buyer and has been on the hunt for corner infield bats and late-inning bullpen help. The Royals (3.5 games), Twins (4) and Guardians (5) are all within five games of a Wild Card spot.

Fans would largely welcome the advent of additional selections becoming eligible to be traded, but that’s not in the cards for now. MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer joined Foul Territory earlier this week and told hosts Scott Braun, Erik Kratz and A.J. Pierzynski that the union is in favor of trading draft picks and has unsuccessfully raised the issue in past waves of collective bargaining (video link, draft pick talk coming around the one hour, 12-minute mark).

“This union has consistently been in favor of teams being able to trade draft picks,” said Meyer. “It would help competition. We think it would help small-market teams that have those valuable draft picks. They should have the flexibility to trade them if it’s in the best interest of the team. I think many teams would agree, but the league for whatever reason has, to date, been against allowing clubs the ability to trade Rule 4 [amateur] draft picks. We proposed it last time. It was rejected. I don’t want to commit to much for the next round of bargaining, but I feel pretty confident we’ll propose that again, because we think it’s actually beneficial to competitive balance.”

It should be noted that virtually any proposal in collective bargaining comes with some give and take. Meyer’s comments only portray one side of the discussion, and it’s not clear whether anything else was attached to that proposal. Regardless, it’s notable that the union’s lead negotiator has signaled a desire to again broach the subject of draft pick trades when the two sides return to the table to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.

Joe Coleman Passes Away

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Former big league pitcher Joe Coleman has passed away yesterday, according to multiple reports. He was 78 years old.

Coleman was a baseball lifer. His father, also named Joe Coleman, pitched in the majors in the ’40s and ’50s. The younger Coleman was born in 1947 and grew up around the game. “I can remember a time that I sat on Mr. (Connie) Mack’s knee for a picture,” Coleman once said. “After the games I used to run around the infield and slide into every base.”

By the mid-’60s, Coleman was pitching in high school. The very first Major League Baseball draft was held in 1965 and Coleman went third overall. The Athletics went first and took Rick Monday, followed by the Mets taking Les Rohr. The Washington Senators, the franchise which would eventually become the Texas Rangers, took Coleman with the third pick.

Shortly after being drafted, Coleman got some cups of coffee in the majors. He made two starts in his draft year, at the age of 18, and one more start in 1966. He would get lengthier stints in subsequent seasons. He logged 134 innings in 1967, posting a 4.63 earned run average. He followed that up with 223 innings with a 3.27 ERA in 1968.

Going into 1969, the Senators hired Ted Williams to manage the club. Coleman and Williams didn’t get along, but the pitcher still managed to post good numbers. Over the 1969 and 1970 seasons, Coleman logged 466 1/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA.

Perhaps due to the contentious relationship with Williams, Coleman was shipped out of town shortly after the 1970 season. He was sent to the Tigers alongside Ed Brinkman, Jim Hannan and Aurelio Rodríguez in exchange for Elliott Maddox, Denny McLain, Norm McRae and Don Wert.

The change of scenery worked out well for Coleman and the Tigers. He posted a 3.15 ERA in 286 innings in 1971. The following year, he dropped his ERA to 2.80 in 280 innings, getting selected to the All-Star team in the process.

Detroit ended up atop the American League East in that strike-shortened season. In the ALCS, which was a best-of-five series at that time, the Athletics took the first two games in Oakland. The series shifted back to Detroit and Coleman got the ball for game three. He tossed a complete game shutout as the Tigers won 3-0. His 14 strikeouts that day were an ALCS record at the time. Though Mike Boddicker tied the record in 1983, it wasn’t topped until Mike Mussina got to 15 in 1997. The Tigers would also win the fourth game of that series but dropped the fifth and were eliminated. That one brilliant performance would eventually go down as Coleman’s only postseason appearance.

He stayed in Detroit for a few more years, though with declining results. His ERA climbed to 3.53 in 1973, 4.32 the year after that and then 5.55 in 1975. He went into journeyman mode from there, pitching for the Cubs, Athletics, Blue Jays, Giants and Pirates throughout the rest of the decade. He finished his playing career with a 3.70 ERA over 2,569 1/3 innings.

After his playing days were done, he went into coaching, doing some minor league work within the systems of the Mariners and the Angels. He would eventually get up to the majors with the latter club, serving as bullpen coach. He then spent a few years as the pitching coach of the Cardinals from 1991 to 1994 before returning to the Angels, serving at times as bullpen coach and pitching coach. He later spent some time coaching in the minors for the Rays, Tigers and Marlins. His son Casey Coleman pitched for the Cubs and Royals about a decade ago, making three straight generations of Coleman men pitching in the majors.

We at MLB Trade Rumors join the baseball world in sending our condolences to the Coleman family and everyone else in mourning this week.

Photo courtesy of Malcolm Emmons, Imagn Images

Tigers Agree To Minor League Deal With Devin Smeltzer, Release Manuel Margot

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The Tigers have agreed to a minor league deal with southpaw Devin Smeltzer and released veteran outfielder Manuel Margot, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Smeltzer has been assigned to Triple-A Toledo.

Smeltzer, 29, has seen big league time in parts of five major league seasons — nearly all with the division-rival Twins. The Vayner client is a former Dodgers fifth-round pick who went from L.A. to Minnesota a deadline swap for Brian Dozier. Smeltzer has worked both as a starter and long reliever in the big leagues, compiling a total of 162 1/3 innings with a 4.32 ERA. He’s only fanned 16.5% of his opponents but boasts a sharp 6% walk rate.

Smeltzer posted a 3.99 ERA in 140 innings with Minnesota from 2019-22, but his inability to miss bats and his susceptibility to home runs led fielding-independent metrics to cast a far more bearish outlook on his performance (4.82 FIP, 4.78 SIERA). Smeltzer’s 2023 season with the Marlins indeed brought a good bit of regression; he pitched 22 1/3 innings but was rocked for a 6.45 ERA as he served up seven round-trippers in that limited role.

That 2023 season in Miami saw Smeltzer regularly designated for assignment, passed through waivers, and outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville. The Fish designated Smeltzer for assignment four different times, and he accepted an outright on each occasion. He also returned on a minor league deal in the 2023-24 offseason and pitched well (3.69 ERA) in 31 2/3 innings with Jacksonville in 2024 before being released.

Smeltzer has been pitching for los Dorados de Chihuahua in the Mexican League this year, logging a 5.17 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in an extremely hitter-friendly setting, where the league-average ERA is a staggering 6.01. He’d been working as a starter, averaging better than six innings per outing across 13 starts, so Smeltzer will provide Detroit some depth for the rotation or a swingman candidate.

The Tigers currently have Sawyer Gipson-Long, Alex Cobb, Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden and Jose Urquidy on the injured list. Jobe’s season is over due to Tommy John surgery. Cobb has yet to pitch for the major league club since signing a one-year deal over the winter. Madden, the No. 32 pick in 2021, has been out all season with a shoulder strain. Gipson-Long has been out since late June due to a neck injury. Urquidy signed a free agent deal over the winter while recovering from Tommy John surgery and will likely be an option in the second half.

As for the veteran Margot, he appeared in six games with the Tigers earlier this year and went 6-for-19 (all singles) in 20 plate appearances. He’s had a very rough showing in Toledo, slashing only .211/.299/.266 in 144 plate appearances for the Mud Hens.

Now 30 years old, Margot is a former top prospect who had a solid run from 2017-22 between the Padres and Rays, slashing .254/.309/.386 with plus baserunning, elite defense and quality production against left-handed pitching. He suffered a severe strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee back in 2022, however, and his sprint speed, baserunning and defensive grades have all plummeted since that injury. (He also missed time earlier this season with an injury in his other knee.) When Margot debuted late in the 2016 season, Statcast credited him with 99th percentile sprint speed — an average of 30 feet per second. In his brief look with the Tigers earlier this season, he was covering 25.3 feet per second, all the way down in the ninth percentile of MLB players.

Since returning from that career-altering knee injury in 2022, Margot has taken 862 plate appearances in the majors. His average hasn’t changed much, but he’s walked less often and seen the minimal power he previously possessed dry up. He’s a .250/.395/.348 hitter (82 wRC+) in that time, and this year’s bleak minor league showing doesn’t create a lot of reason for optimism. He’ll be an option for teams seeking some righty-swinging outfield depth, but it’s been years since Margot has performed at peak levels.

Cubs, Tigers Among Teams Interested In Ke’Bryan Hayes

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Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is drawing interest from multiple teams, with reporter Francys Romero listing last week that the Cubs, Tigers, and Yankees were all “potential suitors.”  Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote a few days ago that Hayes was indeed “on the Yankees’ radar,” and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that Chicago and Detroit have also checked in with the Pirates about Hayes’ status.

Hayes remains one of the sport’s best defenders at any position, as he is again posting fantastic numbers (+13 Outs Above Average, +11 Defensive Runs Saved) over 710 1/3 innings at the hot corner.  The 28-year-old has also played in 83 games this season and thus far stayed off the injured list, which is noteworthy given how recurring back problems have plagued Hayes for multiple years, and limited him to just 96 games in 2024.

On the down side, Hayes is still producing next to nothing at the plate.  It seemed as though Hayes was turning a corner with his .762 OPS season in 2023, as even producing league-average offense along with his superb glove would’ve made Hayes a great all-around boost to Pittsburgh’s lineup.  However, his bat has cratered over the last two years, as his .238/.288/.295 slash line over 721 plate appearances has resulted in a dismal 62 wRC+.  Since Opening Day, Hayes has the lowest wRC+ of any player in baseball with at least 700 PA.

Another possible obstacle to a trade is the eight-year, $70MM extension Hayes signed with the Pirates in April 2022.  He is still owed the remainder of his $7MM salary for 2025, $30MM over the 2026-29 seasons, and then a $6MM buyout of a $12MM club option for the 2030 campaign.  As great as Hayes’ glovework is, a trade partner would be taking a risk in absorbing over $39MM for a player with a history of both back problems and lackluster offense.

Third base has been a problem area for the Cubs all season, as the team’s hope that top prospect Matt Shaw was ready for prime time hasn’t yet paid off.  A month-long demotion to Triple-A resulted in a brief surge at the plate once Shaw was recalled to the majors in May, but his bat tapered off again, and Shaw is hitting only .207/.288/.293 over 222 PA.  Backup options like Vidal Brujan or Jon Berti also haven’t contributed much, leaving the hot corner as a clear weak link in an otherwise very strong Chicago lineup.

Hayes’ lack of pop would be less of an issue amidst so many other strong hitters, yet Shaw is no slouch with the glove himself — he has +6 DRS, though the OAA metric has him only league-average over 487 2/3 innings at third base.  Acquiring Hayes would also block Shaw at third base over an extended period of time, whereas just picking up a rental third baseman at the deadline would help the Cubs’ chances of winning in 2025 while still keeping Shaw in line as the third baseman of the future.

It can be argued that third base isn’t even a need position for the Tigers at all, as the position has become Zach McKinstry’s most common pathway into the lineup.  McKinstry is hitting an impressive .285/.356/.456 over 307 PA, and he has gone from being a utility option to a near-everyday option for manager A.J. Hinch.  The advanced metrics indicate that McKinstry is due for regression, however, and the fact that he hasn’t hit anywhere near this level in his previous five Major League seasons could leave Detroit looking for more stability at third base.

Javier Baez, Colt Keith, Jace Jung, and Andy Ibanez have all also seen time at third base for the Tigers this year, with the latter two currently in Triple-A.  Baez looks to have re-established himself at shortstop and Detroit would love to see Keith find a regular spot for himself in the lineup, as his past positions of first and second base have been filled by Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres.  Relying on Keith for a pennant run is risky, however, so the Tigers may prefer exploring veteran third base options at the deadline.

From the Pirates’ perspective, it isn’t surprising that the club is already open to moving a player that so recently seemed like a building block.  With the Buccos now approaching their seventh straight losing season, it isn’t clear if their rebuild is bearing much fruit, even with Paul Skenes’ rise to superstardom and so many other promising young arms on the way.  The struggling Pirates are reportedly open to moving basically anyone besides Skenes and Andrew McCutchen, and dealing Hayes has the side benefit of moving a long-term financial commitment from the team’s books.

AL Central Notes: Thomas, Ragans, Lynch, Cobb

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Prior to today’s game, the Guardians placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 5), as Thomas is again dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.  Infielder Will Wilson was called up from Triple-A to replace Thomas, who is headed to the IL for the third time this season.  The first placement was due to a bone bruise in his right wrist, and the last two placements were prompted by Thomas’ recurring foot problems.  Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt told MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins and other reporters that Thomas again started to feel discomfort in his foot during Friday’s game, so the team decided to see if the combination of an IL stint and the All-Star break can provide enough time for Thomas to finally heal up.

The injuries have contributed to a brutal .160/.246/.272 slash line over 142 plate appearances for Thomas, though he was starting to heat up a little with an .816 OPS and three homers in last 38 PA.  Thomas’ struggles have been emblematic of an ugly offensive year for the Guardians as a whole, and today’s loss to the Tigers extended the Guards’ losing streak to 10 games.  It increasingly seems like Cleveland will be sellers at the deadline, yet Thomas’ injuries and lack of production will probably mean the Guards won’t be able to move the impending free agent.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Cole Ragans will resume throwing tomorrow after an MRI came back clean, Royals manager Matt Quatraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  The Royals ace hasn’t thrown since suffering a left rotator cuff strain in early June, so with that four-week shutdown period now over, Ragans can get started on the early stages of what could be a lengthy ramp-up plan.  It doesn’t appear likely that Ragans will be back in the K.C. rotation before the July 31 deadline, and his progress will surely be a factor in whatever decisions the Royals face about buying or selling.  Today’s win over the Diamondbacks bumped Kansas City up to a modest 43-48 record, and the club sits 5.5 games out of the final AL Wild card slot.
  • Another injury arose for the Royals prior to today’s game, as the club placed left-hander Daniel Lynch IV on the 15-day IL due to nerve irritation in his throwing elbow.  Right-hander Jonathan Bowlan was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Lynch will undergo further testing tomorrow to determine the severity of the injury.  The former top prospect has settled into a relief role (with a pair of opener starts this season) in Kansas City, and has managed a 2.59 ERA over 41 2/3 innings despite lackluster strikeout and walk rates.  With Lynch out, Angel Zerpa and the struggling Sam Long are the remaining left-handed options in the Kansas City bullpen.
  • Alex Cobb was slated to resume playing catch yesterday after receiving an anti-inflammatory injection in his left hip, as per a Tigers medical update from Friday.  Cobb has yet to pitch this season due to inflammation in his right hip, and he has made three minor league rehab outings but recurring discomfort in both hips has halted those rehab assignments.  Cobb has now received multiple injections in both hips, and it remains to be seen when (or even if) the right-hander will be able to make his official debut on Detroit’s big league roster.  The Tigers signed Cobb to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal this past winter, taking the risk on the veteran following his injury-riddled 2024 campaign.

Tigers Select PJ Poulin

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The Tigers announced a pair of roster moves this morning. They’ve selected the contract of left-hander PJ Poulin to the 40-man roster and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. Left-hander Sean Guenther was recalled from Triple-A and placed on the 60-day injured list to make room for Poulin on the 40-man roster. According to Evan Woodbery of MLive, Poulin had an upward mobility clause in his contract and the Tigers opted to add him to their 40-man roster in order to keep him in their organization.

Poulin, 29 later this month, was an 11th-round pick by the Rockies back in 2018. A two-way player in college, Poulin committed to pitching upon his move to affiliated ball. He looked quite good in the lower minors as a reliever in his first two years as a professional, but the canceled minor league season in 2020 lost him a year of development and he generally struggled with his effectiveness in the upper minors during his time with the Rockies organization.

He was dealt to the Tigers prior to the 2024 season and has looked quite good since then, as he posted a 2.10 ERA in 60 innings between Double- and Triple-A last year before posting a 3.72 ERA in 36 1/3 frames at Triple-A this season. That solid but unspectacular ERA comes with a much more impressive 33.8% strikeout rate, and that kind of strikeout stuff from the left side makes it easy to see why the Tigers decided it was worth it to add the lefty to their 40-man roster rather than risk losing him to another organization.

Making room for Poulin on the 40-man roster is Guenther, who has a 2.30 ERA and 2.73 FIP across 31 1/3 innings of work with the Tigers over the past two seasons. Guenther was on the shelf in the minors after undergoing hip surgery last week, meaning that the move to place him on the 60-day IL is largely a procedural one. With that being said, it does come with the side effect of allowing him to collect a big league salary and earn MLB service time until he’s activated and optioned back to the minor leagues.

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