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Poll: Where Will Nick Castellanos Play Next Year?

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It appears the Nick Castellanos era in Philadelphia is coming to a close. Reporting yesterday indicated that the Phillies plan to either trade or release Castellanos this winter, ahead of the final season of his five-year contract with the club, following a year where he clashed with club manager Rob Thomson and struggled to produce at the plate or in the field. It remains to be seen whether Castellanos will be traded or released to sign somewhere else on the league minimum, but either way, it seems likely at this point that his next MLB game will come in a different uniform. Which team fits him best? A look at some of the most intriguing landing spots:

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are perhaps the most straightforward fit for Castellanos available. They’ve already made clear they hope to upgrade their outfield mix. As a club without much money to spend most years, the fact that Castellanos could be had for a fraction of his salary (or perhaps even the league minimum) has to be enticing. Lackluster as Castellanos’s production was this year, he could be a good fit for a club that produced a wRC+ of just 70 from right field this year between players like Nolan Jones and Jhonkensy Noel. Castellanos perhaps fits best as a DH given his poor defensive abilities, but that opportunity could be available to him as well with Kyle Manzardo likely to take over first base duties after being blocked by Josh Naylor and Carlos Santana in previous years.

Kansas City Royals

Sticking in the AL Central, Castellanos would be an interesting fit for the Royals as well. Kansas City has struggled to find any sort of production in the outfield for years now. This past year, they got a 69 wRC+ (30th in MLB) from right field with a 75 wRC+ (29th in MLB) from left field. Castellanos would surely provide a major upgrade to either of those spots and is capable of playing every day if needed, which would be a step in the right direction for a team that has too often needed to platoon all around the roster recently. One major flaw with Castellanos’s fit in Kansas City, however, is the presence of Salvador Perez. Perez is expected to remain with the Royals next year, whether via club option or a fresh deal, and started 66 games at either DH or first base this year. Any first base starts would push Vinnie Pasquantino to DH, meaning that Castellanos would have to play the field frequently to be a fit for Kansas City’s roster.

San Diego Padres

The Padres might seem like an odd fit for Castellanos’s services at first glance, but San Diego has frequently had to get creative with some of its additions in recent years to balance its budget while filling holes in the roster. That figures to be true once again this winter, with both Dylan Cease and Michael King leaving major holes in the rotation as they head into free agency. Starting pitching figures to be the focus for the Padres this winter, which leaves the club to replace Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn in the lineup at DH on what might be a shoestring budget.

Enter Castellanos, who won’t cost much but could capably handle regular duties at DH while also potentially spelling Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramon Laureano in the outfield corners. San Diego hasn’t been afraid to take risks on players in need of a rebound in the past. While not all of those shots have landed, they have found success with some, such as Gavin Sheets. If there’s a flaw with Castellanos’s fit in San Diego, it’s perhaps that Sheets played just 13 games at first base this year and the club might view him as their DH headed into the offseason.

Other Options

These teams aren’t the only ones for whom Castellanos would make sense, though they are perhaps the best fits. The Cubs are about to lose Kyle Tucker to free agency but they could slide Seiya Suzuki into the outfield more often, opening the DH spot for Moises Ballesteros. Guys like Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are also around to bolster the outfield mix and are probably better than Castellanos at this point anyway. The Diamondbacks could use Castellanos as a right-handed complement to their heavily left-handed outfield and DH mix, but he might be able to do better than a pure bench role and Blaze Alexander might be better suited for that job anyway. Perhaps the Rangers could sign Castellanos to share time with Joc Pederson at DH and back up lefty outfielders like Evan Carter and Alejandro Osuna if they end up non-tendering Adolis Garcia, though even if that happens they might still prefer to try to reunite with him at a lower price point, given his superior defense. The Pirates got very little production from their offense last year but would be a better fit if Andrew McCutchen departs the club. The Giants got minimal production from right field this year but Rafael Devers is likely to be their everyday DH next year.

Where do MLBTR readers think Castellanos would fit best in 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Phillies Notes: Alvarado, Kemp, Thomson, Calitri

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The Phillies are now in offseason mode after getting dropped by the Dodgers in the NLDS. The outfield is going to be a key focus this winter but there are other details to be ironed out. On left-hander José Alvarado, the Phils will have to decide between a $9MM club option or a $500K buyout, a net $8.5MM decision. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said yesterday, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he would be surprised if Alvarado is not back on the roster next year.

That’s not a firm commitment but it certainly seems like the most likely outcome is Alvarado’s option being picked up. That always seemed likely, as the option price is fair for a pitcher of Alvarado’s quality. On the other hand, it was reasonable to wonder if Alvarado’s 80-game PED suspension annoyed the club enough that they would let him walk. But it seems they will move past that and bring the lefty back for another year.

Dating back to the start of 2022, Alvarado has given the Phils 180 innings with a 3.25 earned run average. His 10.2% walk rate in that span was high but he struck out 31.7% of batters faced and got grounders at a strong 50.1% clip. He earned 32 saves and 48 holds in that time. As seen on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, 15 relief pitchers got $9MM or more last winter. Even Jordan Romano, who was a big question mark after an injury-marred 2024, got $8.5MM. Given those market conditions, picking up Alvarado’s option makes plenty of sense.

Elsewhere on the roster, infielder/outfielder Otto Kemp is slated for multiple surgeries, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb notes that Kemp fractured his kneecap when he fouled a ball off himself on June 17th, though he never went on the injured list. He will now be undergoing surgery to repair it, in addition to a minor surgery to clean out some damage in his left shoulder. It’s unclear what sort of recovery timeline he is facing.

Kemp made his major league debut this year and stepped to the plate 218 times. His 5.5% walk rate and 30.7% strikeout rate were both bad but he launched eight home runs. His .234/.298/.411 slash translated to a 95 wRC+, indicating he was 5% worse than league average.

In the minors, Kemp’s walk and strikeout rates have been far better, so perhaps better results can be expected going forward. It’s also possible the knee injury knocked his numbers down somewhat. He played the non-shortstop infield positions and left field, so he could be a useful utility player for the Phils.

There are also some noteworthy developments related to the Philadelphia coaching staff. Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic was among those to cover those. The Phils are planning to hire a new bench coach to work under manager Rob Thomson this winter. Current bench coach Mike Calitri will stay on the staff but with a new title of major league field coordinator.

Back in 2022, Calitri was working for the Phils as a quality assurance coach. That summer, manager Joe Girardi was fired. Thomson, then the bench coach, was promoted to the skipper’s chair. Calitri then replaced Thomson as the bench coach.

Dombrowski also mentioned that Thomson will likely get an extension at some point. The skipper is only signed through 2026 and it was reported earlier this week that he would be back next year but clubs generally don’t like to have managers in a lame duck situation. “(Thomson) was already signed for this coming year, so it really was just a matter of moving forward and having conversations in regards to a lot of different topics with him,” Dombrowski said, per Varnes. “I do think, at some point, we talked that I would look at adding a year into his contract (this winter).”

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Phillies Expected To Trade Or Release Nick Castellanos

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The Phillies are likely to trade or release Nick Castellanos this offseason, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The veteran outfielder is owed $20MM for the final season of a five-year, $100MM free agent deal.

It has been apparent for the past few months that Castellanos’ time with the organization would probably come to an end this winter. He hasn’t performed up to expectations for most of his time in Philly. He’s coming off a career-worst .250/.294/.400 batting line and lost playing time in the second half.

Castellanos has also had a couple public spats with manager Rob Thomson. The skipper benched Castellanos for a game in June after the player made what Thomson considered “an inappropriate comment” when being lifted for a defensive replacement (ESPN link). Late in the season, Castellanos publicly criticized Thomson for what he called “questionable” communication on players’ roles.

The Phillies have not announced any decisions. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was asked about the situation at this morning’s end-of-season press conference. “I don’t know. I’m not going to get into specific players that are on our roster under contract. The [incidents] that you talked about are accurate, but we’ll see what happens,” he replied (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Obviously, the Phillies would prefer to find a trade partner than to simply release Castellanos. That won’t be easy. Other teams will be aware of the soured relationship. Even if things hadn’t gone south off the field, he’s coming off a season in which both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference felt he was below replacement level. Castellanos ranked among the bottom 20 hitters (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. He tied with Jo Adell and Juan Soto for an MLB-worst 12 outs below average among outfielders. He probably would have been a primary designated hitter if he weren’t teammates with Kyle Schwarber.

Castellanos did connect on 17 homers while driving in 72 runs. He’d topped 20 homers in each of the previous two seasons. He has not gone on the injured list in three seasons and has hit .282/.329/.463 against left-handed pitching over the past four years. He’d still be an offensive upgrade for some teams as a part-time outfielder/DH.

Teams aren’t going to assume a notable portion of a $20MM salary for that kind of role. The Phils will hope to find a club willing to take $3-5MM off their hands for a nominal return. Failing that, it seems they’d simply eat the contract and release him. Castellanos could then sign anywhere for the league minimum with the Phillies on the hook for the rest of the money. The Guardians, Royals, Rangers and Padres are among the teams that need more production out of the outfield and/or designated hitter.

Moving on from Castellanos will be one of multiple changes to the Phils’ outfield. Harrison Bader and Max Kepler are headed to free agency. (Bader will decline his end of a mutual option and sign a multi-year deal.) That leaves Brandon Marsh as the only returning regular. Kepler had a poor season after signing a $10MM free agent deal. Dombrowski acknowledged that he’s unlikely to be re-signed.

The Phils will presumably make an effort to bring Bader back, but they’re also facing the impending free agencies of Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suárez. While Dombrowski said the Phillies have interest in re-signing each of those players individually, he called it “probably impractical” to get all four of them done. Schwarber and Realmuto feel like the bigger priorities.

That points to a potential Opening Day roster spot for former first-round pick Justin Crawford. The Phillies were mulling a midseason call-up for the 21-year-old outfielder. Crawford probably would’ve debuted had they not managed to acquire Bader from Minnesota at the deadline. He instead spent the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he hit .334/.411/.452 and stole 46 bases in 112 games.

Crawford remains a somewhat divisive prospect. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills, but his power is limited by a swing designed to hit the ball on the ground. While he has the pure speed for center field, his arm and defensive routes lead many evaluators to project him as a left fielder. That could push Marsh back to center field, perhaps in another platoon with righty-swinging Johan Rojas.

Poll: Will The Phillies Trade Alec Bohm This Winter?

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Philadelphia’s season came to an abrupt end when they were trounced by the Dodgers in four games during the NLDS, and now they’re facing down a crucial offseason where a number of key players are headed for free agency. With Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, and J.T. Realmuto all already headed to the open market, it seems likely that big changes are coming to the Phillies one way or another. The club’s pending free agents aren’t the only places where the possibility of change can be seen, however.

Last winter, the Phillies floated the possibility of more substantial change and made regulars like Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos available. Neither ultimately ended up getting traded last year, but perhaps that could change this winter. Given that Castellanos endured a career-worst season and lost playing time down the stretch this year, the question surrounding his trade candidacy seems less to be about whether the Phillies would like to move on from him and more about what team might be interested in adding him and how much of his salary Philadelphia would need to pay down to facilitate a move.

Bohm, on the other hand, is a more intriguing trade candidate. The Phillies apparently set an extremely high asking price in trade talks regarding the infielder last winter, as they reportedly sought either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby from the Mariners and Mason Miller from the Athletics in exchange for his services. That asking price, naturally, was not met, and the teams that passed on Bohm are surely glad they did so based on his performance in 2025. After a 2024 campaign where Bohm posted a 113 wRC+ with solid defense at third base en route to his first career All-Star appearance, he took a clear step backwards this year as he slashed just .287/.331/.409 (105 wRC+) with 11 homers, a 5.8% walk rate, a 16.3% strikeout rate, and less robust defensive metrics.

In other words, he regressed in virtually every aspect of his game. After his middling 2025 campaign and the club’s inability to find a trade partner for Bohm last winter coming off a career year, it goes without saying that the Phillies would need to massively lower their expectations for a return in order to work out a deal involving Bohm. That might be reason enough for the Phillies to pass on the idea of trading him this winter, if they believe a bounce back is coming next season. If the club is risking the loss of Schwarber from the lineup already, any possibility of downgrading offensively at the hot corner would surely be looked at with skepticism.

On the other hand, Bohm is entering his final year before free agency, so it stands to reason that the Phillies might have an easier time accepting a less-than-elite return for the 29-year-old infielder at this point. Perhaps more importantly, Bohm’s departure could clear the way for the Phillies to upgrade the third base position, either immediately or in the long-term. Alex Bregman figures to be one of the winter’s top free agents and would be a big upgrade over Bohm if acquired, and Bo Bichette is another intriguing option even if he’d have to be convinced to move off shortstop. Going after one of those players could be an especially sensible decision if Schwarber ends up signing elsewhere this winter.

Even if the Phillies aren’t interested in adding a big-ticket free agent, it must be remembered that internal help is on the way. Aidan Miller is a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and got promoted to Triple-A shortly before the end of the regular season. He looked quite comfortable in eight games at the level, going 9-for-27 (.333) with two doubles, a home run, and more walks (9) than strikeouts (7) in 34 trips to the plate. It should be expected that he’ll be ready for the big leagues at some point next year, and the possibility of Bohm blocking him at third base doesn’t seem especially appealing. Utility man Edmundo Sosa remains in the organization as a potential bridge to Miller if he isn’t ready for the majors out of Spring Training, as well.

Of course, much of whether or not it would make sense for the Phillies to deal Bohm will come down to what they can get in return for his services. Fortunately, an offseason with this much uncertainty baked in also comes with plenty of flexibility in terms of what the Phillies can look for in a return package. Suarez’s potential departure will leave a hole in the rotation the club would do well to fill, but there’s also room for improvement in the outfield, where Harrison Bader and Max Kepler are both scheduled to hit free agency, and in a bullpen that figures to lose David Robertson and might also lose Jose Alvarado if the Phillies don’t exercise his club option. Perhaps Bohm can be packaged with prospect capital in order to bring back a starter, or he could be swapped with a similarly-controllable outfield bat if there’s a team with surplus in the outfield in need of infield help.

How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Bohm headed into this winter? Will he be placed on the trade block in order to clear the way for someone else at third base, be it Miller or a free agent addition? Or will they hold onto him and hope for better results in 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez

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The Phillies are keeping manager Rob Thomson in place for the 2026 season, but there are still some potentially notable changes coming to the roster. Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez and J.T. Realmuto are among the team’s most notable free agents. Zack Wheeler’s health outlook is a question mark after he required thoracic outlet surgery. With Suarez and Wheeler’s status uncertain at best and Aaron Nola coming off an ERA north of 6.00, Philadelphia’s rotation isn’t the typical powerhouse to which we’ve become accustomed in recent seasons.

First and foremost, it sounds as though retaining Schwarber will be one of the top’s top priorities — if not the very top item on president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s to-do list. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that executives with other clubs expect owner John Middleton to do whatever it takes to keep Schwarber in the City of Brotherly Love. Matt Gelb of The Athletic suggests that Schwarber, who’ll turn 33 next spring, is planning to seek a five-year contract in free agency.

That’d be unheard of for a designated hitter at his age, but Schwarber’s 2025 season was the best of his career. He clubbed an NL-best 56 home runs en route to a .240/.365/.563 slash. Schwarber topped the century mark in both runs scores and runs driven in for a third consecutive season.

Schwarber’s 14.9% walk rate was 6.5 percentage points higher than the 8.4% league average, and while Schwarber’s 27.2% strikeout rate was also considerably higher than average (22.2%), it was also his lowest since 2021. The NL home run leader has also made immense gains against left-handed pitching in recent seasons, shedding platoon concerns that followed him earlier in his career. Schwarber was actually better against lefties than righties, hitting same-handed opponents at a .252/.366/.598 against clip.

If one were to set MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to show the number of position players commanding a five-year free agent deal beginning in their age-33 season, well … there aren’t any. In fact, the only free agent hitters in the past decade to sign even a four-year deal beginning at age 33 or later are Ben Zobrist ($56MM), Starling Marte ($78MM) and Josh Donaldson ($92MM). All are at least four years old now (10, in Zobrist’s case), and Schwarber is coming off such a prodigious offensive showing that he should top all of them with ease.

Gelb also suggests that Realmuto is expected to seek a three-year deal — a hefty ask considering he’ll turn 35 next spring. Again, looking to our Contract Tracker to find catchers who signed for three or more guaranteed years beginning with their age-35 season (or older) reveals only two: Carlos Ruiz’s three-year, $26MM deal to return to the Phillies all the way back in 2013 and Yadier Molina’s three-year, $60MM extension back in 2017.

Realmuto showed in 2025 that there’s still plenty left in the tank, but his days as a premium all-around catcher also look to be in the past. His .257/.315/.384 batting line was 6% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but still checked in a bit better than that of the average catcher, specifically. He’s still plus when it comes to controlling the run game (29.7% caught-stealing rate), but Realmuto has now registered negative blocking grades (according to Statcast) in consecutive seasons and has seen his once-vaunted framing grades decline sharply.

The market offers little in the way of starting-caliber catchers, which could work to Realmuto’s benefit. Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are arguably the most notable alternatives on the open market. The former has posted nice rate stats in the batter’s box but has primarily operated as a backup. The latter has now had back-to-back poor seasons at the plate. Potential non-tenders (e.g. Jonah Heim, Joey Bart) could add some change-of-scenery candidates to the list of options, and the trade market will surely offer a few names to ponder (e.g. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Ivan Herrera).

Turning to Suarez, he made no secret of his hope to remain in Philadelphia. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes that the left-hander was among the last players to leave the clubhouse after the 2025 season ended. He told reporters at the time: “I don’t want it to be the last year with the team.”

The 30-year-old Suarez has been a rock in the Philly rotation, averaging 26 starts per season across the past four years and pitching to a 3.59 ERA in that time. He’s been even better in the playoffs, with a sub-2.00 ERA in his postseason career. Suarez doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting 91-92 mph with his sinker, but he still consistently posts better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.

As it stands, the Phillies’ rotation will include Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. The team hasn’t yet provided a timetable for Wheeler’s recovery from his thoracic outlet procedure. Taijuan Walker is signed for $18MM in 2026, but the Phillies would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the some or all of that remaining sum. Top prospect Andrew Painter could make his long-awaited debut next year, but he posted uneven minor league results in his return from Tommy John surgery. Mick Abel was traded to the Twins in the Jhoan Duran swap.

Retaining Suarez would go a long way toward solidifying a rotation with an atypical number of red flags, but the Phillies already project for a nearly $228MM payroll before making any additions or bringing back any potential free agents (via RosterResource). It’s hard to imagine them keeping all three of those prominent impending free agents — particularly when there are other needs elsewhere on the roster.

Rob Thomson Will Return As Phillies’ Manager In 2026

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The Phillies’ latest postseason exit has led to some speculation about manager Rob Thomson’s job security, but Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post report that Thomson is “safe for 2026” and is expected to return to lead the Philadelphia dugout next year. The team is planning a formal announcement later in the week.

As pointed out by Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Thomson is just the fourth manager in major league history to lead any team to the postseason in each of his four years on the job. He’s also only the third Phillies manager to guide the club to consecutive NL East championships.

Thomson, 62, was elevated to the manager’s post midway through the 2022 season when Joe Girardi was fired. The team’s bench coach at the time, Thomson has now famously indicated that he was actually planning to retire at the end of that 2022 season before being reinvigorated by the promotion to manager.

In three-plus seasons at the helm, Thomson guided the Phillies to a 346-251 regular season record and steered the ’22 Phillies all the way to an NL Pennant and to Game 6 of the World Series before falling to the ’22 World Champion Astros. Thomson’s Phillies reached Game 7 of the NLCS against the Diamondbacks in 2023 but have now lost in the Division Series in consecutive seasons, falling to the ’24 Mets and the ’25 Dodgers.

Prior to his time as the Phillies’ manager, Thomson spent five years as the bench coach under Girardi. He was also the Yankees’ bench coach under Girardi, holding that position from 2008-17. He’d served as a major league coach with the Yankees prior, dating back to 2003, and has also held roles in their front office (specifically in player development) in addition to various coaching positions in the Yankees’ minor league ranks.

Though some fans might’ve hoped for a change in voice after four consecutive earlier-than-hoped playoff exits, it doesn’t seem that any such sentiment exists within the clubhouse. Phillies players emphatically voiced last week — via both Lauber and The Athletic’s Matt Gelb — that Thomson has their support.

“I love Topper, man,” Harper said after the team’s heartbreaking end to the season. “He’s done a great job for us. I don’t know what the future holds. I have no idea. I think that’s a [question for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski]. But obviously, we love Topper in here.” Teammate Trea Turner agreed wholeheartedly.

“I’ve been blessed with a lot of good managers in my career — I’ve probably played for four or five now, and they’ve all been really good — and he’s right up there with them,” said Turner. “He’s got all the qualities. He keeps it even-keeled all year long. He’s great, man. I don’t think you can ask for more out of a manager.”

Thomson is currently signed through the 2026 season. The Phillies inked him to a one-year extension last offseason — a move that prevented him from playing out the current campaign as a lame-duck manager. Perhaps they’ll go a similar route this time around, but for right now, Thomson’s contract is slated to conclude at the end of the ’26 season and is not believed to contain any kind of option for the 2027 season.

Seven Players Elect Free Agency

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Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents. Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.

To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back. These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.

We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion. These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Poll: Will The Phillies Exercise Jose Alvarado’s Option?

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The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.

The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.

Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.

That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.

Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.

Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.

This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.

How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:

N.L. Notes: Horton, Chourio, Bader

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Cubs right-hander Cade Horton is potentially making some progress. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, he will throw off a mound this week as the club decides whether or not to include him on the NLCS roster, if they advance that far.

Horton debuted this year and hit the ground running. He logged 118 innings for the Cubs with a 2.67 earned run average. Unfortunately, his season ended on a sour note. Horton suffered a rib fracture in September and it was immediately apparent that he would miss at least one playoff series. The Cubs survived the Wild Card round without him but he still wasn’t on the roster for their NLDS matchup against the Brewers.

The Chicago rotation is feeling thin at the moment, composed of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Boyd just got rocked by the Brewers on Saturday. He was charged with six runs, only two of them being earned, as he failed to get out of the first inning. The Cubs went on to lose 9-3. Imanaga and Taillon were both decent this year but both had subpar strikeout rates. If the Cubs can hang on for a best-of-seven NLCS, getting Horton in there to take some pressure of those guys could be a difference maker.

Mooney also adds that the Cubs expect Horton to earn a full year of service time, which is understandable. As a top prospect who was promoted late enough that he wasn’t slated to get a full service year, he can earn that full year retroactively by finishing top two in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. Horton and Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin are considered the frontrunners for that award, so Horton will likely get that full service year. That would put him on track to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.

Some other injury updates from around the league…

  • Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is in tonight’s lineup, batting leadoff against the Cubs. Chourio left the first game due to some right hamstring tightness. A subsequent MRI led to results which Pat Murphy described as “inconclusive,” adding that it’s “not a serious hamstring strain.” That implied that Chourio did indeed strain his hamstring, though the club is apparently comfortable running him out there tonight. Murphy said today, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that Chourio is not 100% and they’ll take him out of the game if it appears necessary.
  • Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader was removed from his club’s first NLDS game against the Dodgers due to a groin injury. He’s not in tonight’s Game Two lineup but he could be available to pinch hit. Manager Rob Thomson passed the new on to reporters, including Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Bader is an excellent defender and he hit .305/.361/.463 after being acquired from the Twins at the deadline, so the Phillies will obviously want him back in there as soon as possible. The Phils have Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos in the lineup tonight from left to right. Max Kepler is also in the mix, though he’s probably not starting tonight since lefty Blake Snell is on the bump for the Dodgers.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Harrison Bader To Undergo Imaging For Groin Injury

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October 5: Thomson said this morning that Bader’s MRI showed no major tear or strain, as relayed by Varnes. He’ll continue receiving treatment and the team will know more about his availability for Game 2 tomorrow, but MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki notes that Thomson said Bader is feeling better after receiving treatment last night.

October 4: The Phillies pulled outfielder Harrison Bader from Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers tonight due to what was at first described by the team has hamstring tightness, but manager Rob Thomson later relayed to reporters (including Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic) that the issue was actually groin tightness. Bader himself later spoke to reporters (including Tim Kelly of On Pattison) and revealed that he would be undergoing imaging to determine the extent of his injury.

While the situation might seem concerning, Bader is considered day-to-day for the time being and expressed confidence that he’ll return to the Phillies’ lineup during this series. He noted that he’ll rest during tomorrow’s day off and “go from there,” adding that playing in the postseason is the time where you “empty the tank,” suggesting a willingness to try and play through an injury that might otherwise sit him down at another point in the season. That’s surely encouraging for Phillies fans to hear given Bader’s emergence as a key piece of the team in recent weeks.

Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline back in July, Bader had already been enjoying a solid season with the Twins but kicked things up to another gear when he arrived in Philadephia. In 50 games with the Phillies, Bader has hit .305/.361/.463 with five home runs, eleven doubles, and a triple in 194 trips to the plate while serving as the team’s regular center fielder. He’s done his part defensively as well, with +1 Fielding Run Value in center this year despite playing the outfield corners exclusively in Minnesota. Bader has long been a well-regarded center fielder in the majors, but was pushed into a corner with the Twins due to the presence of a healthy Byron Buxton in the club’s lineup.

The addition of Bader at the deadline helped to stabilize the Phillies on both sides of the ball. Nick Castellanos struggled badly this year, with below-average offensive numbers that paired with his typical lackluster glove in the outfield to make him a below replacement level player. Max Kepler and Johan Rojas had disappointing seasons of their own as well, leaving Bader to step up alongside Brandon Marsh to help create some more production for the Phillies on both offensively and defensively. Few deadline additions have been more impactful for their club down the stretch, and it would be devastating for the club to go without Bader during a tough matchup against the Dodgers this week, especially after dropping game 1 of the series at home earlier this evening.

If Bader were to miss Game 2 on Monday, an outfield featuring Marsh in center flanked by Kepler in left and Castellanos in right seems like the most likely outcome, though Weston Wilson is also on the roster as a potential right-handed complement to Kepler. In a worst-case scenario where Bader needed to be pulled from the club’s NLDS roster entirely, the Phillies would have the option to place him on the injured list and replace him on the roster. Doing so would mean that Bader would miss the entire NLCS, however, and only be eligible to return this year if the Phillies made it all the way to the World Series. Needless to say, that’s a situation the Phillies will surely be hoping to avoid.

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