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Poll: Which Teams Should Make The Biggest Push For Jarren Duran?

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The Red Sox have fought their way back into playoff contention after their shocking trade of franchise face Rafael Devers last month. Boston has rattled off a seven-game win streak to put themselves at a 50-45 record entering play today and in a statistical tie with the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot. That hasn’t stopped some of their top players from finding their names in the rumor mill, however. While it would be shocking for a team in playoff position that has plenty of uncertainty on the infield as it is to trade away someone like Alex Bregman, the Red Sox do have an overflowing outfield mix that could at least theoretically be put to use this summer and bring back some much-needed pitching help.

Masataka Yoshida returned to the Red Sox yesterday after missing the first half of the season while rehabbing his surgically repaired shoulder, and with his return comes an embarrassment of riches in the Red Sox outfield. Roman Anthony entered the season as the sport’s consensus top prospect and, after a slow start, has taken off in recent weeks with a .308/.413/.462 slash line since the Devers trade. Fellow youngster Ceddanne Rafaela has also caught fire of late, with an absurd .303/.341/.630 slash line since the start of June that he’s paired with some of the best outfield defense in the entire American League. And that’s before even getting into Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, both of whom established themselves as impact players with big campaigns in 2024.

It’s Duran who’s gotten the most attention as a trade candidate of that group, and he’s certainly attractive. He’s just one year removed from a top-ten finish in AL MVP voting, and while his 2025 season (105 wRC+) has left something to be desired, it’s easy for teams to dream on that upside given his three-and-a-half years of team control remaining. There aren’t many teams in baseball who wouldn’t stand to benefit from adding someone of Duran’s caliber to their lineup, but which clubs should be most interested in his services? A look at some potential fits:

San Diego Padres

The most discussed potential suitor for Duran early on, San Diego has targeted the outfielder in the past and that interest appears to be ongoing. The Padres are operating under a tight budget, so a player like Duran who remains in the early years of arbitration is an attractive addition. They’ve also got a gaping hole in the lineup after their left field platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe to open the season did not work out. Gavin Sheets is currently holding down the fort at the position, and while his 118 wRC+ this year has been impressive he’s also a poor defender best suited to DH work. Adding Duran, then, could upgrade the club both offensively and defensively.

Houston Astros

There might be no team that’s a better on-paper fit for Duran than the Astros. With Yordan Alvarez on the injured list for most of the season and Kyle Tucker having been dealt to Chicago, Houston has no left-handed regulars in its lineup. That lack of lefty bats has made them a pedestrian offense (103 wRC+) against right-handed pitching this year, and while Cam Smith has settled in well as the club’s new right fielder a combination of Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel, and Jose Altuve in left isn’t great. Duran would be a perfect addition for the club, though a farm system typically viewed as one of the weakest in the majors could make acquiring a talent of his caliber difficult.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have been looking to find help for Bobby Witt Jr. in their lineup, and while they thought they found just that this winter when they traded for Jonathan India, the addition hasn’t worked out as hoped so far. No team gets less production from their outfield mix than Kansas City, and while Jac Caglianone should contribute at some point, the rest of the group is in need of a serious makeover. Duran would be a strong addition who could fill the leadoff role India was brought in to address, but the team’s 46-48 record could make buying this summer a tough sell unless they can rattle off a big win streak. While other contenders are likely more motivated to make a deal now, the Royals could be an especially interesting suitor if Duran remains in Boston headed into the winter.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are clinging to a small lead over the Mets in the NL East at the moment, and they’re doing that without much production from their outfield. Brandon Marsh has turned things around after a disastrous start to the year and is now roughly league average overall, and Nick Castellanos remains his usual self. The addition of Max Kepler simply hasn’t worked out, however, and Johan Rojas hasn’t looked good as anything more than a defense-first bench option either. Replacing Kepler with Duran would not only help the Phillies in the short-term, but it would also allow the team to add a controllable, cost-effective bat to the lineup at a time where multiple significant pieces (Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez) will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

Other Options

While the four teams mentioned above are arguably the teams that could benefit most from adding Duran, there are certainly other clubs that should have at least some interest in his services. Michael Conforto’s OPS is below .600, and with him ticketed for free agency after the season the Dodgers would certainly stand to improve from adding Duran and could make room for him long-term. The Mariners could be a tricky fit given that both Duran and Randy Arozarena are best suited to left field, but they could certainly use an extra outfield bat. The Pirates are clear sellers this season but need reliable bats to surround Paul Skenes and the rest of their young rotation, and even Bob Nutting can afford an arbitration-level player like Duran. The Twins will need a replacement for Harrison Bader’s production going forward, and perhaps Duran could serve as a bridge to Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Minnesota.

If the Red Sox decide to move Duran, which club would benefit most from bringing him in? Have your say in the poll below:

Nationals Sign Luis Garcia

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July 8th: The Nationals have now officially announced the signing of Garcia. Right-hander Eduardo Salazar has been optioned to Triple-A Rochester as the corresponding active roster move. Righty Trevor Williams has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot. Williams was just placed on the 15-day IL a few days ago due to an elbow sprain. It appears the Nats don’t expect him to return before September. Washington also recalled catcher Drew Millas and placed catcher Keibert Ruiz on the seven-day concussion-related IL.

July 6th: The Nationals have signed right-hander Luis Garcia to a Major League contract, the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reports.  The deal will become official when the 38-year-old Garcia passes a physical.

It didn’t take long for Garcia to find a new landing spot, as the Dodgers only just released the veteran reliever on Friday.  Garcia signed a minor league deal with Los Angeles last winter and broke camp with the team, but his struggled during his time on the big league roster.  Garcia posted a 5.27 ERA and 12.7% walk rate over 27 1/3 innings, and spent about a month on the injured list recovering from an adductor strain.

There have been plenty of ups and downs for Garcia over his 13 MLB seasons, which isn’t surprising for a grounder specialist who relies a lot of batted-ball luck.  His most sustained stretch of success came fairly recently, as Garcia posted a 3.62 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate across 154 relief innings for the Cardinals and Padres from 2021-23.  Those results led to a one-year, $4.25MM free agent deal with the Angels during the 2023-24 offseason, and Garcia continued to pitch decently well before his production dipped after a deadline trade to the Red Sox.

Washington has one of the league’s worst bullpens, so there’s not much risk for the Nats in taking a flier to see if Garcia can bounce back from his rough showing in L.A.  If he really pitches well between now and the July 31 trade deadline, the Nationals could even look to quickly flip Garcia elsewhere for a low-level minor leaguer.

Once Garcia gets into a game with his new club, he will have pitched with eight different teams at the big league level over the course of his long career.  This is actually the second Dodgers-to-Nationals trip Garcia has taken — after beginning his career as an international prospect in Los Angeles’ farm system, the Dodgers dealt Garcia to the Nats way back in August 2009.  Garcia didn’t see any big league action during his year-plus in the Washington organization, and didn’t end up making his MLB debut until he was a 26-year-old pitching with the Phillies in 2013.  (By coincidence, Garcia pitched against the Nats in his first Major League game.)

A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Deadline Outlook

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Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made an appearance on MLB Network Radio this weekend and discussed his thoughts about the roster with the deadline looming at the end of the month.

“Getting Darvish, King back would be huge,” Preller said, referring to injured starters Yu Darvish and Michael King. “The bullpen’s been strong. We’ve got a lot of different weapons in the ’pen. You could add to a strength. And on the offense side, it’s probably rounding out the depth of the lineup. I think, like you mentioned, the top of the lineup should be strong… You’ve got to be deep one through nine and I think probably adding a bat or two is something that we’re going to look at here in the next few weeks to try to help our team get to October.”

Wanting to add to the offense is an understandable focus, as San Diego has some clear holes. It’s been reported earlier in the year that the club is looking for upgrades at catcher and left field. Behind the plate, the club isn’t getting any offensive contributions from Elias Díaz nor Martín Maldonado. The team has a collective .206/.269/.325 line from the catching position. That translates to a wRC+ of 70, which is ahead of just the Guardians, Nationals and Giants.

The left field situation is a bit more complex. Jason Heyward had the position for a while but struggled and was released. Gavin Sheets has taken over and is having a great year offensively, currently sporting a .264/.325/.451 batting line and a 119 wRC+. However, he’s not an especially strong outfield defender, so the Friars could consider adding a left fielder to push Sheets back to the first base/designated hitter mix. That would take plate appearances away from Trenton Brooks, who is hitting .200/.231/.400 on the year.

How the Friars go about adding to those spots will be an interesting situation to watch. The club’s payroll has been an obvious concern in recent years, which led to the Juan Soto trade. In the most recent offseason, they primarily limited themselves to modest one-year deals. The one exception was Nick Pivetta’s four-year pact, which was backloaded to reduce the financial impact in 2025.

On top of that, the club has traded away a lot of prospects in recent years as they have attempted to keep the major league roster stacked with talent. Their farm system is highlighted by two really strong youngsters in Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reporting has suggested the Padres are reluctant to part with either of those two.

Put it all together and it will be a tricky balance for Preller but he should have plenty of options, at least for the left field spot. The Friars are known to be interested in Jarren Duran, though that might be more of a long-shot possibility with the Sox hanging in the American League race and Duran controlled for three more seasons after this one. Guys like Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Jesús Sánchez, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Tauchman, Ramón Laureano and Adolis García are some of the other possibilities. Behind the plate, old friends Kyle Higashioka and Gary Sánchez could be available.

As for the bullpen, as Preller mentioned, it has been a strength. San Diego relievers have a collective 3.25 earned run average, which is third in the majors, trailing only the Giants and Astros. But even a club with a strong relief groups can add another arm or two, and injuries can always pop up and change the calculus, so Preller’s openness to adding there is understandable.

The rotation is perhaps a bit more in flux. Starting depth hasn’t been the club’s strong suit for a while and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target upgrades there, though as Preller alluded to, their aggressiveness in this department might depend on how things unfold in the coming weeks.

Darvish has been out all year due to elbow inflammation but will come off the injured list today. He will jump into a rotation mix that also includes Pivetta, Dylan Cease and Randy Vásquez. King is out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder and his status is up in the air.

Having a playoff rotation of Cease, Pivetta, Darvish and King would be nice but it’s still unclear how realistic it is for the Padres to expect that. Vásquez has a 3.79 ERA on the year but fairly uninspiring peripherals. He still has an option remaining, so perhaps the Padres would consider grabbing one more starter and bumping him to the minors, though they would have to weigh that against other needs while also considering their payroll and the prospect cost of making such a move.

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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July 7: San Diego officially reinstated Darvish from the 60-day IL. Lefty Kyle Hart was optioned to Triple-A El Paso to make room on the active roster. To clear the necessary 40-man roster spot, the Friars moved Michael King from the 15-day to the 60-day IL.

It’s a procedural move for King. The 60-day count backdates to his original IL placement, which was retroactive to May 22. He’ll technically be eligible to return two weeks from now. King won’t be ready by then anyhow as he works back from a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. He has made progress, however, as the team revealed this evening that he’s set to throw off a mound for the first time on Thursday (relayed by Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune). He’ll need to progress through multiple bullpen and live batting practice sessions before he’s ready to embark on a minor league assignment.

July 6: Yu Darvish is set to make his first big league appearance of 2025, as Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the right-hander will be activated from the 60-day injured list to start Monday’s game with the Diamondbacks.  Darvish developed elbow inflammation in the middle of March, and the veteran’s recovery process ended up costing him over half of the season.

The exact nature of Darvish’s progress was kept somewhat vague.  Shildt has said the team trusted Darvish to essentially manage his own rehab since the pitcher obviously knows the most about how his arm is feeling, and how much ramp-up work is required.  Darvish only pitched in one minor league rehab game back on May 14, though continued soreness in his elbow put his rehab on hold and delayed any plans for a return to the Padres’ rotation.

Acee writes that Darvish tossed two simulated games in the last 12 days, and hit the 64-pitch mark in his most recent outing.  This seems to have checked the final box for Darvish to be activated, and he’ll jump right into the deep end in a big NL West matchup.  San Diego is four games ahead of 44-46 Arizona in the standings, and the Padres would naturally love to further knock their division rivals further out of wild card contention.

It wouldn’t be surprising if it takes a start or two for Darvish to knock the rust off, but in general, getting a frontline pitcher back is naturally a big plus for the Padres.  Even with Darvish out, Michael King to the IL since late May, and Dylan Cease battling through an inconsistent season, San Diego has kept afloat with a makeshift rotation.  Nick Pivetta is enjoying a tremendous debut season in a Padres uniform, and Stephen Kolek and Randy Vasquez have held the fort over their starts, despite some shaky peripheral statistics.  The Padres’ excellent bullpen has also been instrumental in bolstering the pitching staff as a whole.

2025 will mark Darvish’s 20th professional season, counting his seven years in Nippon Professional Baseball and his 12 previous MLB campaigns.  Darvish turns 39 next month but appears to still have plenty left in the tank, as evidenced by the 3.31 ERA he posted over 81 2/3 frames for the Padres last season (and his 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 playoff innings).  As Acee notes, Darvish has been bothered by elbow problems throughout his time in San Diego, and both the pitcher and the team are focused on having him healthy and ready for the playoff stretch and throughout October.

Details On Bryan Reynolds’ Limited No-Trade Protection

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The Pirates appear to be open for business regarding trade talks for most of their roster (sans Paul Skenes) this summer. In a trade market without many quality bats available, that could make two-time All-Star Bryan Reynolds a particularly intriguing commodity for some teams. One potential wrinkle in Reynolds’s availability is his partial no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to a list of six teams. A report from Noah Hiles from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette yesterday revealed those teams are the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres.

All six of those teams are in playoff contention and stand out as likely to not only buy this season, but do so fairly aggressively. It’s not unheard of for a player to waive their no-trade clause, and some players with limited no-trade protection even specifically prioritize putting likely contenders on their no-trade lists to maximize the amount of leverage they have in determining their destination should their team decide to trade them. With that being said, the news of Reynolds’ no-trade list certainly makes a deal sending him to any of those six clubs far less likely.

Many of the clubs Reynolds can block a trade to appear to be imperfect fits on paper. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets all have deep corner outfield mixes and seem very unlikely to prioritize adding a bat like Reynolds when they have larger needs elsewhere. The Giants likely made their big splash of trade season already when they acquired Rafael Devers from the Red Sox, although Mike Yastrzemski is in the final year of his contract and would be unlikely to stop San Francisco from adding an impact bat. Addison Barger’s breakout and George Springer’s resurgence have more or less locked down the right field and DH spots for the Blue Jays, and while there’s an opening in left field for the moment that figures to change as soon as Anthony Santander returns from the injured list.

Perhaps the clearest fit for Reynolds on his no-trade list is the Padres, who have long appeared to be a bat short in the lineup as they’ve cycled through options like Jason Heyward, Trenton Brooks, and Oscar Mercado with little success this year. There’s a clear opening in left field for Reynolds to theoretically step into, as well. With that being said, San Diego has operated under some extremely tight financial constraints in recent years that would make it difficult to see them deal a player like Reynolds, who is due more than $77MM after this season on his extension with the Pirates. It should also be noted that, despite Reynolds’s long track record of success in the majors, he’s in the midst of the worst full season of his career as he’s slashed just .232/.298/.384 with a wRC+ of 87 this season.

That combination of a hefty contract, a tough 2025 campaign so far, and now a list of six contenders who likely will not be in the market for Reynolds’s services could mean the Pirates won’t get as much interest in their star outfielder as they may have hoped. Even if that proves to be the case, however, Reynolds is sure to get at least some interest around the league. The Royals have already been connected to Reynolds just this past week, and there will surely be more outfield-needy teams who at least give the Pirates a call to see if there’s a match. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies and Cardinals stand out as clubs that could theoretically stand to make a substantial upgrade to their outfield who might have the resources necessary to take on Reynolds’s contract.

Padres Outright Logan Gillaspie

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TODAY: Gillaspie cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A El Paso earlier this week, the Padres announced.  Gillaspie made the start for El Paso in yesterday’s game.

JUNE 30: The Padres announced Monday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Logan Gillaspie from the 15-day injured list. Rather than add the out-of-options righty back to the active roster, San Diego has designated him for assignment.

Gillaspie, 28, has been out since late April due to an oblique injury. He appeared in three games for the Friars in 2025, tossing seven innings and holding opponents to just two runs. He did so with matching 12.9% strikeout and walk rates, however, and gave up quite a bit of loud contact along the way (92.1 mph average exit velocity, 45.5% hard-hit rate).

This is the fourth straight season in which Gillaspie has logged at least some big league time. He’s pitched a total of 44 2/3 MLB frames between the Orioles and Padres, logging a combined 4.63 earned run average with a 14.5% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 35.7% ground-ball rate. Gillaspie has averaged 95.1 mph on his four-seamer in his career (94.7 mph in 2025) and typically pairs the pitch with an 83-84 mph slider, an 87-88 mph changeup and an 82-83 mph curveball (in descending order of use). At least in his brief three-inning look this year, he’d also begun to mix in a cutter that sat 91.5 mph.

Gillaspie has worked exclusively as a reliever ever since reaching High-A. Originally signed by the Brewers as an undrafted free agent, he’s now pitched in in four Triple-A seasons as well, logging a 4.37 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 129 2/3 innings. The Padres can trade Gillaspie or place him on waivers at any point in the next five days. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so his DFA will be resolved within a week’s time. Since Gillaspie has never been outrighted and doesn’t have three years of big league service, he’ll stick with the organization as a depth arm in Triple-A if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Padres Seeking Upgrades At Catcher

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The Padres are hoping to upgrade their offensive production behind the plate as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes. It’ll likely be a thin market for available catchers, which complicates their search.

San Diego has leaned exclusively on Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado behind the plate this year and received virtually no production on the offensive side of things. That veteran duo has combined for a feeble .205/.268/.328 batting line in 296 plate appearances. The resulting 70 wRC+, which indicates they’ve been 30% worse than average at the plate, ranks 27th in the majors.

Unfortunately for the Friars, few of the clear sellers around the game have catching help for sale. The White Sox (Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero), Marlins (Agustin Ramirez) and Rockies (Hunter Goodman) all have young catchers enjoying good seasons — and all are controllable at least five years beyond the current campaign. Pittsburgh’s Joey Bart makes some sense on paper, but he hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s breakout. The A’s would make another good speculative fit, but Rosenthal reports that they have no intention of trading Shea Langeliers. He adds that even even with Drake Baldwin ascending in Atlanta, a Sean Murphy trade over the next four weeks isn’t likely.

There are some bubble teams who could eventually have catching depth to spare, but it’s not yet clear whether any of those teams will sell. The Reds only control Tyler Stephenson through the 2026 campaign, and fellow catcher Jose Trevino’s recent three-year extension (plus a club option) gives them a bit more stability long-term. Similarly, the Twins and Rangers only have Ryan Jeffers and Jonah Heim under club control through 2026, although the latter is having a particularly down season at the plate. If the Orioles wind up selling, old friend Gary Sanchez would be a logical trade chip, as an impending free agent whose bat is heating up in recent weeks.

On top of the likely lack of supply, the Padres will presumably have financial limitations. San Diego was known to be low on spending power late in the offseason, hence the creative structure of Nick Pivetta’s four-year deal and the bargain-bin additions at catcher (Diaz, Maldonado), in left field (Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Gavin Sheets) and for the pitching staff (Kyle Hart). The Padres are well into luxury tax territory — an estimated $263MM worth of obligations, per RosterResource, puts them in the second tier of penalty — so any additions would come with an additional 30% tax on top of their remaining annual salary.

The Padres also have needs in the outfield corners — neither Joe nor Heyward is still with the club — and could use some additional rotation help with Michael King on the shelf and Yu Darvish yet to make his season debut. Juggling all those needs, with potentially limited financial flexibility and a farm system that has been thinned by years of aggressive win-now trades, could prove a tall order.

The fact that San Diego is both reported to covet catching help and using Diaz and Maldonado exclusively also speaks to the manner in which former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen out of favor in the organization. The 26-year-old is hitting .315/.432/.613 in 224 Triple-A plate appearances but hasn’t gotten much of a look in the majors this year. He’s struggled on both sides of the ball in the past, hitting .241/.295/.374 in 589 major league plate appearances while posting sub-par defensive grades. Campusano feels like a change-of-scenery candidate who could be on the move between now and the end of the month.

Padres To Select Eduarniel Nunez

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The Padres will call up reliever Eduarniel Núñez for tomorrow’s doubleheader in Philadelphia, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Matt Waldron is being optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. The Padres will be able to recall another player tomorrow as the 27th man for the twin bill. They’ll need to select Nuñez onto the 40-man roster and already have an opening after designating Logan Gillaspie for assignment yesterday.

It’s the first MLB call for the 26-year-old Núñez. The 6’2″ righty is a former Cubs prospect who joined the Friars as a minor league free agent last offseason. He has spent the bulk of the season in Double-A, working to a 3.57 earned run average over 22 2/3 innings. He struck out more than 40% of opposing hitters while getting swinging strikes on 21% of his pitches. That earned him a bump to Triple-A El Paso in the middle of June. Núñez has rattled off 7 1/3 scoreless frames with 11 more punchouts over seven appearances.

Núñez is now up to a combined 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with a 41.9% strikeout percentage on the season. That’s elite swing-and-miss ability backed up by high-octane stuff. Núñez has averaged north of 99 MPH on his heater since getting bumped to Triple-A. He has been a two-pitch pitcher this season, using the fastball slightly more often than he turns to his upper-80s breaking ball. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him the #32 prospect in the San Diego system last month, crediting him with plus or better grades on both offerings.

That it nevertheless took him parts of eight minor league seasons to get an MLB look reflects his well below-average control. Núñez has walked nearly 15% of opponents over his professional career. He has been a little better in that regard this season, cutting the free passes to a somewhat more manageable 12% clip. He’ll be a volatile but intriguing middle innings option for skipper Mike Shildt.

MLBTR Podcast: The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Matthew Boyd has already surpassed his highest innings total since 2019. How far do the Cubs push him over the remainder of the season? (32:05)
  • The Padres and Royals have pitching they could trade but should they? (38:20)
  • The Reds don’t have long-term answers at first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter. Is there a path to bring in players from outside the organization? (45:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images

Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

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