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Orioles Notes: Henderson, Valdez, Astros

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Gunnar Henderson’s third full Major League season was another success, as the infielder hit .274/.349/.438 with 17 home runs over 651 plate appearances.  It was more or less a match for the 2023 season that earned Henderson AL Rookie of the Year honors — Henderson posted a 122 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR that year, and a 120 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR in 2025.

Last season’s numbers were, however, a step back from the 154 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR Henderson delivered in 2024.  Henderson missed most of Spring Training and the first week of regular-season action recovering from an intercostal strain, but the shortstop revealed Thursday that he also spent about “three-quarters of the year” dealing with a heretofore unknown shoulder impingement.

In an interview on WBAL’s Orioles Hot Stove Show (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Henderson said “I just wasn’t able to hold the plane and my body was adjusting to it, not feeling great, so that didn’t really set up me in the right spot to leverage the ball like I normally do.”  Despite his solid production, Henderson “could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse.  Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year.  Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”

The injury wasn’t serious enough to merit a trip to the injured list, or even any missed time, as Henderson played in 154 of 155 games after being activated from the IL on April 4.  Since the Orioles faded from contention pretty early in the season, the team certainly should’ve shut down Henderson or at least reduced his playing time if there was any real concern over his shoulder.

With Henderson now predicting good health for 2026, the shoulder impingement can probably just be written off as a yet another footnote within an injury-riddled season for the Orioles roster.  Getting the 2024 version of Henderson back would go a long way towards helping the O’s return to playoff contention after their disappointing 75-win campaign.

Having Framber Valdez in the rotation would also be a huge boost, and the possibility of a big rotation add remains alive since the Orioles have been linked to the free agent southpaw’s market.  This isn’t the first time Baltimore has looked to acquire Valdez, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that the left-hander was part of a four-player trade package the Astros were prepared to send to the O’s for Zack Britton at the 2017 trade deadline.

It was known at the time that a Britton trade fell apart at the last minute between the two sides, with the Orioles reportedly pulling out due to medical concerns over two of the players involved.  Houston’s side of the deal wasn’t known until now, as Rosenthal/Sammon report that the Astros were offering Valdez (then a somewhat unheralded Double-A prospect), J.D. Davis, Jason Martin, and Rogelio Armenteros for Britton, who was in the midst of an injury-shortened season but was arguably baseball’s best closer when healthy.

While initial reports said the Orioles took issue with the medical of both pitchers (Armenteros and Valdez) in the trade offer, Rosenthal/Sammon write that Baltimore’s issue was just with Armenteros.  Former Orioles owner Peter Angelos was somewhat notorious for his caution over pitcher health, leading to several trades or free agent signings that were renegotiated at the eleventh hour, or abandoned altogether.

Armenteros’ MLB career ended up consisting of five appearances for the Astros in 2019 and he missed the entire 2020 season due to surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow.  In this context, it’s hard to say the Orioles were incorrect in their concern, though Arementeros ended up being the least-accomplished of the four players Houston offered.  Beyond just Valdez, Davis became a very productive infielder once the Astros traded him to the Mets during the 2018-19 offseason, and that breakout could’ve very well happened in Baltimore rather than in New York.  Martin’s MLB career consisted of 85 games with the Pirates and Rangers from 2019-21, but Martin was one of the four players the Astros sent to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole prior to the 2018 season.

The Astros went onto win the 2017 World Series anyway without Britton, and Valdez ended up being a cornerstone piece of the team’s success over the last decade.  While Houston’s front office (which included current Orioles president of baseball ops Mike Elias at the time) was surely irritated when the Orioles pulled the plug on the Britton trade, the team came out on top in the long run, and it’s another example of how you just never know which prospect might end up as the key figure of a trade package.

In fairness to the O’s, there wasn’t much indication at the time that Valdez would turn into a frontline starter, and it is possible Valdez wouldn’t have developed as well as he did in Baltimore’s organization rather than in Houston.  The 2017 season was the first of five straight losing seasons for the Orioles as they entered a rebuilding period under Elias, and it is interesting to wonder how having Valdez (and Davis) around might’ve changed the trajectory of that rebuild.

Yankees Claim Kaleb Ort

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed right-hander Kaleb Ort off waivers from the Astros. The move was reported by Yankees Never Win prior to the official announcement. Houston recently designated Ort for assignment when they signed Tatsuya Imai. The Yanks had multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Ort, 34 in February, has pitched for the Red Sox and Astros over the past five seasons. He has shown some intriguing stuff but without fully harnessing it for good results. He averages in the upper 90s with his four-seamer while also throwing a cutter, slider and changeup.

Through the end of the 2023 season, he had thrown 51 2/3 innings for the Red Sox with a 6.27 earned run average. Boston put him on waivers in October of 2023 and he bounced around the league that winter, going to the Mariners, Marlins, Phillies and Orioles via waivers or cash deals. Baltimore kept him on optional assignment early in 2024, exhausting Ort’s final option year in the process. They put him in waivers in May of that year, which is when the Astros grabbed him.

He had his best run of major league success with the Astros. After that claim, he gave Houston 22 innings with a 2.55 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate. That impressed the Astros enough that Ort held a roster spot through 2025 despite being out of options, but he couldn’t keep the results at that level. He tossed 46 innings last year with a 4.89 ERA. His 25.3% strikeout rate was still good but he gave out free passes at a 13.9% clip. He spent most of September on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation.

For the Yankees, there’s no real harm in a waiver claim for now. As mentioned, they had multiple open roster spots. Ort still doesn’t have enough service time to have qualified for arbitration. They can bring him into camp to compete for a bullpen spot.

It’s also possible they put him back on waivers later, after they make more moves and fill out the roster. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, they could keep him in a non-roster capacity. Ort doesn’t have a previous career outright and is shy of three years of service time, meaning he doesn’t have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images

18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.

There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

  • Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM

Astros

  • Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
  • Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM

Blue Jays

  • Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)

Braves

  • Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM

Brewers

Marlins

Mariners

  • Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM

Nationals

Orioles

  • Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
  • Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM

Rays

  • Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM

Reds

Royals

Tigers

Twins

  • Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM

MLBTR Podcast: Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros, Christian Roa Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros reached a minor league agreement with right-hander Christian Roa, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. It’s a homecoming for the Houston native and Texas A&M product.

Roa was a second-round pick of the Reds in 2020. Cincinnati added him to the 40-man roster three years later to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Roa struggled in Triple-A during the ’24 season. He sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in August without reaching the majors. The Reds tried to sneak him through waivers at year’s end, but the Marlins stepped in with a claim.

Miami succeeded in getting Roa through waivers a couple weeks later. The 26-year-old spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A Jacksonville. He had a nice year, working to a 2.60 earned run average while striking out 26.1% of batters faced. Miami called him up in the final few weeks. Roa got into his first two big league contests, tossing three scoreless innings. He struck out and walked three batters apiece. The Fish outrighted him again at the end of the season, leading him to elect minor league free agency.

Roa has a four-seam fastball and sinker that each sit around 96 MPH on average. He leans mostly on the heaters and a mid-80s slider, only sporadically mixing in a changeup. Roa had starting experience early in his minor league career but has been a full-time bullpen arm for the last two seasons. His command never developed to a passable level to start. Last year’s 11.4% walk percentage was still an issue but represented a step forward from his 14-17% marks of the previous three seasons.

Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown

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The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.

“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”

It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.

Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.

RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.

Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.

Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.

“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”

Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.

“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”

The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.

Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.

Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.

Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”

It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.

What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.

A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros Haven’t Discussed Extension With Manager Joe Espada, GM Dana Brown

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Astros manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown are entering the final seasons of their respective contracts. It’ll be Espada’s third season in the role and Brown’s fourth year running baseball operations.

Many clubs prefer not to have their manager and front office heads on lame duck contracts. Astros owner Jim Crane has been more willing to do that than most of his counterparts, and it appears that both Brown and Espada may need to work on expiring deals in 2026. Crane said on Monday morning that there had been no extension conversations with either the GM or skipper, nor did the owner seem interested in doing that this offseason.

“I think we’ll go through this year like we always do, evaluate it and then make the decision at the end of the year,” Crane said (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “We won’t probably do any extensions now. But I’m not saying that’s impossible. We haven’t talked about it yet. We’ve been focused on getting what we need to compete this next year.”

That doesn’t necessarily indicate any kind of dissatisfaction on Crane’s part with the team’s direction. Dusty Baker managed the Astros on a series of one-year contracts before retiring after the 2023 season. Houston also allowed former GM James Click to work through the end of his contract in ’22. That was driven partially by personal discord between Click and Crane that led the Astros to move on from him even though the team won the World Series. There’s no suggestion of such issue between Crane and his current staff.

The Astros narrowly missed the playoffs last season, snapping an eight-year run of postseason appearances in the process. Their 87-75 record was only marginally worse than the 88-win showing that was enough to claim an AL West title one year earlier. Houston was in control of the division at the All-Star Break last year, but they played at a slightly below-.500 pace in the final three months of the season. That was enough to not only drop behind the Mariners but also fall back of the Guardians, who rode a September hot streak into an improbable playoff berth to bump Houston from the field.

Houston’s focus this winter has been on the rotation with Framber Valdez hitting free agency. They’ve added Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai as mid-rotation arms behind ace Hunter Brown. The roster is probably close to what they’ll have on Opening Day, but they’re looking for a backup catching upgrade behind Yainer Diaz and could try to land a better left-handed hitting outfielder than Jesús Sánchez.

Astros Could Open Season With Six-Man Rotation

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The Astros officially introduced Tatsuya Imai at Daikin Park this morning. The surprising three-year deal continues what has been a pitching-focused offseason for a Houston team losing Framber Valdez to free agency. The Astros also acquired Mike Burrows in a trade that cost two of their better prospects while adding potential back-end starters Ryan Weiss and Nate Pearson on cheap one-year deals.

Manager Joe Espada said at Imai’s press conference that the club is likely to lean on a six-man rotation frequently throughout the season (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That could be the case from day one, as the skipper indicated they may begin the year with an extra starter. Espada pointed to the team’s heavy early-season workload. The Astros only have two off days between Opening Day on March 26 and April 22. Barring rainouts, they’ll play 26 games in their first 28 days.

Hunter Brown is the clear #1 starter with Valdez expected to head elsewhere. Imai and Burrows slot into the middle of the rotation, while Cristian Javier is lined up for a spot somewhere in that 2-4 mix. Options for the final rotation spot or two include Weiss, Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, Lance McCullers Jr. and prospect Miguel Ullola. Weiss, who signed for $2.6MM after pitching to a 2.87 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate in Korea, probably enters camp at the top of that group.

There are durability and/or experience questions with everyone who slots behind Brown. Javier has been a quality starter at his best but was up-and-down upon his return from Tommy John surgery in the second half of 2025. This will be Burrows’ first full season in the big leagues. Neither Imai nor Weiss have pitched in MLB. Arrighetti and McCullers slogged through injuries last year and were ineffective when healthy. Blubaugh has three career starts. Alexander, J.P. France and Colton Gordon all look more like depth arms than rotation stalwarts.

Given the innings questions for almost everyone after Brown, it’s sensible to ease their early-season workloads. That would leave one fewer spot in the bullpen given the 13-pitcher limit, however. Houston has six relievers who are either slam dunks or near-locks for the MLB roster if healthy: Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, Bryan King and Enyel De Los Santos. They’re also bringing Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz to camp and would need to carry him on the MLB roster to keep his contractual rights. Spring Training injuries and any late-offseason additions will change the picture.

Kona Takahashi To Return To NPB For 2026 Season

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2:20PM: Feinsand reports that Takahashi had offers from three Major League clubs.  7 News Boston’s Ari Alexander heard during the Winter Meetings that the Astros were interested in Takahashi, but it isn’t known if Houston was one of the teams who made the righty a formal offer.

1:30PM: Kona Takahashi’s 45-day posting window for finding a contract with MLB teams closes tomorrow, but The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the right-hander will instead return to Japan and the Seibu Lions.

There wasn’t much buzz about Takahashi’s bid to join a big league team, and reports began to emerge a few days ago that returning to Nippon Professional Baseball was a distinct possibility for the 28-year-old.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy reported that Takahashi received just one offer from a Major League team, and it apparently wasn’t enticing enough for the righty to make the jump.

Takahashi doesn’t yet qualify for full international free agency.  Feinsand and Murphy suggested that he could pursue a multi-year deal with the Lions that includes an opt-out clause next winter, so Takahashi could freely pursue another contract with a Major League team.  Sammon writes that Takahashi and the Lions are indeed discussing such a contract — though the Lions still control Takahashi’s rights, the club was already willing to post him this offseason, so a longer-term deal with opt-outs somewhat formalizes the situation.  It does mean that the Lions wouldn’t be able to receive a posting fee, which would’ve been 20% of any contract worth $25MM of less in guaranteed money.

The general expectation was that Takahashi’s foray into the posting system was going to result in a low-level guarantee at best, or perhaps even a contract without any guaranteed money.  Takahashi has a solid 3.39 ERA over 1199 career innings with the Lions, and achieved success by inducing grounders at roughly a 50 percent rate and limiting walks.  The big red flag for MLB scouts was undoubtedly Takahashi’s lackluster 17.17% career strikeout rate.

It might take a particularly strong 2026 NPB season for Takahashi to elevate his stock in the eyes of big league scouts, but he’ll still be relatively young (turning 30 in February 2027) in advance of what would be his first MLB campaign.  With another year of good results and eating innings, Takahashi might draw more attention as a back-end rotation arm or perhaps as a multi-inning reliever next winter, should he end up opting out of his next contract.

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

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