Poll: Who Will Win The NL East?
With the first game of the 2026 season already in the rearview mirror, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. In the NL West, the Dodgers predictably came out on top, while the the Cubs won a plurality (42%) of the votes in the NL Central. Today, we’ll round out this series of polls with a look at the NL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Philadelphia Phillies (96-66)
The Phillies won the NL East in dominant fashion last year, but repeating that feat figures to be a much taller order in 2026. That’s because Philadelphia’s biggest offseason moves were focused on the same core that they’ve used for the last several years. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto re-signed. Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo signed extensions. But none of that meaningfully pushes the ball forward relative to 2025. There were some external additions of note, like Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller, but the Phillies seem very comfortable banking on youngsters like Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter to pick up the slack left by departing All-Stars Ranger Suarez and Nick Castellanos. Will that be enough to keep them at the top of the NL East?
New York Mets (83-79)
The Mets completely overhauled their entire organization this offseason after missing the playoffs by a hair in 2025. Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil (among others) are gone. Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams and Luis Robert Jr. (among others) have arrived to replace them. The result is a completely overhauled lineup that offers the potential for a very impressive offense on paper but comes with real defensive questions as Bichette and Polanco are set to be tasked with learning new positions. With that said, the team’s biggest addition of the winter is surely Freddy Peralta, who will lead a rotation that also stands to get a full season from Nolan McLean this year. It was an unorthodox retool of the roster in Queens this offseason, but this year’s team built around Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor certainly has a chance to be a lot stronger than the one they leaned on last season.
Miami Marlins (79-83)
The Marlins surprised baseball fans in 2025 by nearly making it all the way back to .500, but that wasn’t enough to convince president of baseball operations Peter Bendix to call off the rebuild early. Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers were shipped out the door, while the team’s additions were fairly modest. Owen Caissie joined the team as part of the Cabrera trade return and could be a 30-homer bat in right field, mirroring 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers in left once the latter is healthy, but a team relying on Christopher Morel at first base and Chris Paddack to be your big free agent additions to the lineup and rotation doesn’t offer much reason for optimism about the club’s division chances. Pete Fairbanks was a strong addition to the bullpen, but Miami will need a big rebound from Sandy Alcantara plus significant steps forward from youngsters like Connor Norby, Max Meyer, and Agustin Ramirez if they’re going to compete for the East.
Atlanta Braves (76-86)
No team in baseball had a more disappointing season last year than the Braves. Virtually everything went wrong in Atlanta last season, as the entire roster struggled with injuries and under-performance outside of a few bright spots like Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson. The good news for Atlanta is, they still have a very talented core on paper. Ronald Acuna Jr. is a superstar with an MVP award on his mantle. Chris Sale is a future Hall of Famer. Spencer Strider and Austin Riley are certainly capable of bouncing back. Additions like Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski should be helpful, though Ha-Seong Kim is starting the season on the injured list after signing on to be their starting shortstop. The bones of a great team are certainly present, but it’s anyone’s guess whether Atlanta can perform up to that level this year.
Washington Nationals (66-96)
The Nationals enter 2026 with little reason for hope in the short-term. James Wood looks like a budding superstar, but MacKenzie Gore has been traded and CJ Abrams could follow suit later this year. Offseason additions like Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas in the rotation should help to eat innings but neither offers substantial upside. Fans in D.C. could hope for big years from players like Wood, Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Brady House, but even with those things going right, the best case scenario would be convincing newly-minted president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to try and make a more substantial effort to compete next year. It would take a minor miracle to get the Nationals into the postseason for 2026, much less as the champions of the NL East.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL East will play out this year? Will the Phillies hang on to win it again despite running it back? Will the Mets’ massive retool work out? Or will a team like the Marlins or Braves surprise and take the crown for themselves? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the NL East in 2026?
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Philadelphia Phillies 40% (2,316)
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New York Mets 33% (1,894)
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Atlanta Braves 21% (1,198)
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Washington Nationals 4% (212)
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Miami Marlins 3% (152)
Total votes: 5,772
Marlins Sign Austin Slater To Major League Deal
March 25th: The Marlins announced today that Mazur has been placed on the 60-day injured list. In a separate announcement, the club made the Slater deal official. He’ll join Heriberto Hernandez as a righty outfielder off the bench behind Marsee, Caissie, and Conine.
March 24th: The Marlins are in agreement with outfielder Austin Slater on a major league deal, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid. He just opted out of a minor league deal with the Tigers a few days ago. He’ll make $1MM plus bonuses, per Kevin Barral of Fish on First. The Marlins will need to open a 40-man roster spot but that should be as easy as transferring right-hander Adam Mazur to the 60-day injured list. Mazur underwent Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago and will miss the entire season.
Slater, 33, just had a strong camp with the Tigers. He stepped to the plate 36 times in 15 games and slashed .267/.389/.467. Detroit’s roster is fairly crowded, however. They are going to carry prospect Kevin McGonigle on the Opening Day roster and have bumped outfielder Wenceel Pérez to the minors.
The Marlins will take advantage of that roster crunch by scooping up Slater. In his career, he has generally combined solid defense in all three outfield slots with strong offense against left-handed pitching. His overall batting line is .248/.336/.384. That’s almost exactly league average, translating to a 101 wRC+. That includes a .267/.357/.430 line and 119 wRC+ against southpaws, compared to a .227/.311/.329 slash and 80 wRC+ otherwise.
That profile should fit well in the Miami outfield. The Marlins are slated to begin the season with Kyle Stowers on the injured list, which will leave Jakob Marsee, Owen Caissie and Griffin Conine in the outfield. All four of those guys are lefties, so Slater should have plenty of chances to slot in against southpaw opponents.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The extension between the Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong (recorded prior to the numbers being reported) (2:20)
- The extension between the Phillies and Cristopher Sánchez (7:00)
- The Braves losing Spencer Strider to the injured list (14:00)
- Is there a trend of starting pitcher prospects being used in major league bullpens? (18:15)
- The Nationals optioning Dylan Crews and Harry Ford, with Josiah Gray landing on the 60-day IL (23:35)
- Carson Benge making the Mets‘ Opening Day roster (30:30)
- JJ Wetherholt making the Cardinals‘ Opening Day roster (35:40)
- The Pirates not breaking camp with Konnor Griffin (39:15)
- The Guardians not breaking camp with Travis Bazzana (44:40)
- The Blue Jays starting the season with José Berríos and Trey Yesavage on the injured list (49:20)
- The Marlins optioning Braxton Garrett (55:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
- Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More! – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images
Phillies Re-Sign Tim Mayza To MLB Deal, Return Zach McCambley To Marlins, Re-Assign Lou Trivino
4:47PM: The Phillies also re-assigned right-hander Lou Trivino to Triple-A. Like Mayza, Trivino is an Article XX(B) player with an opt-out in his minors contract this weekend. It isn’t yet clear if Trivino will trigger his clause and enter free agency, or if he’ll bide his time at Triple-A until his next opt-out date on May 1.
9:21AM: The Phillies announced this morning that left-hander Tim Mayza was re-signed to a major league contract after the lefty exercised his opt-out clause in his minor league deal and was granted his release by the organization yesterday. To make room for Mayza on the 40-man roster, right-handed Rule 5 selection Zach McCambley was returned to the Marlins. McCambley was evidently place on (and successfully cleared) waivers at some point prior to the move to return him to Miami.
Mayza, 34, is entering his ninth major league season. He’s spent the majority of his career to this point as a member of the Blue Jays, and after an uneven start to his career when he made his major league debut in 2017 through the end of the 2019 season, he emerged from a 2020 campaign lost to injury to become one of Toronto’s more steady relief arms. From 2021 through 2023, Mayza turned in high quality results for the Jays with a 2.67 ERA and a 3.20 FIP in 155 innings of work. Of course, it should be noted that those strong numbers came with a major platoon split. While his ERA against southpaws was just 0.67, his numbers against right-handers were far more pedestrian: he sported a 4.19 ERA, a 3.96 FIP, and a 24.7% strikeout rate across those three seasons.
Even factoring in those lesser numbers against righties, however, Mayza’s fall from grace in 2024 was a shocking one. Across 50 appearances, the lefty’s ERA ballooned all the way up to 6.33, and while his 4.50 FIP suggests some of that was due to poor fortune on batted balls and sequencing he still struck out a paltry 14.4%. Ugly as those season long numbers are, however, Mayza did show some signs of returning to form after he was shipped to the Yankees midway through the season; in 18 innings of work with the Bombers, Mayza turned in a 4.00 ERA with a 3.94 FIP, though his strikeout rate still sat at a well-below average 16.2%.
That left Mayza in an uncertain place headed into 2025, and while he landed a big league deal with the Pirates he spent most of the season on the injured list due to a lat strain. He pitched just 15 total innings in the majors last year between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (who claimed him off waivers from the Pirates midseason). In that time, he posted a 3.78 ERA and 4.16 FIP that’s more or less in line with his work as a member of the Yankees. His strikeout rate did tick back up to a more respectable 20.3%, however, and that was enough to convince the Phillies to give him another shot on a minor league pact entering camp. Mayza’s 5.40 ERA in 8 1/3 spring innings isn’t exactly inspiring, but the big news from camp is that the strikeouts appear to be back. He’s punched out 27.0% of his opponents this spring, and that was enough to convince the Phillies to put him back on their roster for the 2026 season.
As for McCambley, the righty was a third-round pick by the Marlins back in 2020. Initially drafted as a starter, McCambley converted to relief during the 2022 season and climbed the rest of the minor league ladder as a reliever. He split the 2025 season between Triple-A and Double-A, and in that time posted a combined 2.90 ERA with a 33.1% strikeout rate in 62 innings of work. That was enough to catch Philadephia’s attention in the Rule 5 draft, but he walked (six) more hitters than he struck out (four) in his 7 1/3 innings of work with the Phillies during Spring Training. That lack of control was enough for the Phillies to decide to move on from McCambley, who now returns to the Marlins as a non-roster piece who could nonetheless be called upon to contribute out of the bullpen at some point this year.
Kyle Stowers, Esteury Ruiz To Open Season On Injured List
Marlins fans received tough news regarding their outfield mix today, as Christina De Nicola of MLB.com was among those to relay that star outfielder Kyle Stowers will open the season on the injured list. Stowers has been diagnosed with a grade 1 hamstring strain, an injury that comes with a timeline of between three and four weeks. Meanwhile, Craig Mish of SportsGrid reports that outfielder Esteury Ruiz is also headed to the injured list. Mish notes that Ruiz is suffering from an oblique strain and figures to be shelved for longer than Stowers.
It’s a brutal blow to Miami’s outfield depth, at least for the start of the season. Stowers’s diagnosis leaves open the possibility that he could be back on the field with the Marlins as soon as mid-April, but it could be longer than that if his recovery is on the longer end of that 3-4 week timeline and he winds up requiring a rehab assignment. Ruiz doesn’t have an exact timeline, but from Mish’s description of the situation it seems unlikely he’d be available to play in Miami before May at the earliest.
While Stowers will be back sooner, losing him is undoubtedly the bigger blow for the Marlins. The outfielder was the breakout star of the Marlins’ 2025 campaign as he hit .288/.368/.544 with a 149 wRC+ in 117 games. While a 27.4% strikeout rate is certainly cause for concern, Stowers’s big time power and 10.5% walk rate were more than enough to make him a middle-of-the-order threat for Miami last year. The club will need a similar performance from him this season if they’re going to have any hopes of making it to the postseason in a crowded NL East division, and this latest injury news will put even more pressure on him to perform when he does return to action.
As for Ruiz, the 27-year-old was acquired from the Dodgers in trade over the offseason and is a career .241/.296/.343 hitter in the majors, and a middling defender in the outfield. Ruiz’s most notable tool is his speed. He turned in a 67-steal campaign for the A’s in 2023, but any hopes of racking up big stolen base totals with the Marlins this year are now put on hold indefinitely. He seemed likely to be part of Miami’s Opening Day roster in a bench/platoon capacity, offering a right-handed complement to the team’s lefty-heavy outfield mix.
With both Stowers and Ruiz out of commission, the Marlins’ Opening Day roster will look very different in the outfield. Youngsters Jakob Marsee and Owen Caissie were already poised to start in center and right field on Opening Day, respectively. Those two will now be joined by Griffin Conine in the outfield as Conine returns from a 2025 season mostly lost to injury. The now 28-year-old outfielder has an above average slash line of .261/.320/.435 for his career in the majors, though that amounts to just 54 games thanks to various injuries. This unproven outfield trio will be backed up by utility man Javier Sanoja, outfielder Heriberto Hernandez, and perhaps first baseman Christopher Morel, who has spent time in center field with the Cubs and left field with the Rays in the past despite poor defensive numbers.
Kyle Stowers, Esteury Ruiz Undergoing Testing For Injuries
Both Kyle Stowers and Esteury Ruiz left the Marlins’ Grapefruit League games on Friday due to injury concerns, with Stowers departing due to right hamstring tightness and Ruiz with a left oblique strain. Manager Clayton McCullough updated the media (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola) on the situation postgame, and today didn’t have any new information on the results of imaging tests on either player.
Stowers has been dealing with what McCullough described three weeks ago as a “very minor” strain in that same right hamstring, and the Marlins have mostly relegated the outfielder to live batting practice sessions rather than game action. Friday marked Stowers’ sixth Spring Training game, and he didn’t play at all over a two-week span from the end of February until his return to the field on March 14. On Friday, Stowers collected hits in his first two plate appearances before leaving the game in the bottom of the third.
While Stowers was playing in a split squad game against the Astros, Ruiz was playing on the other portion of Miami’s roster in a game against the Nationals, and Ruiz also left during the third inning after an awkward swing on a foul ball. Given that Ruiz’s injury has already been diagnosed as a strain, it would have to be a very minor strain for the outfielder to avoid a pretty lengthy stint on the IL, as even lighter oblique issues usually lead to at least a couple of weeks on the sidelines.
Ruiz was acquired from the Dodgers in a December trade, and the lightning-fast outfielder is looking to win a spot on the Marlins’ bench. After leading the AL with 67 stolen bases for the A’s in 2023, Ruiz has appeared in only 48 Major League games with the Athletics and Dodgers, due to both a lack of hitting and some knee problems. A huge Triple-A performance in 2025 perhaps indicates that Ruiz has unlocked something at the plate, though he hadn’t hit much in the small sample of 41 plate appearances during Miami’s camp.
If Ruiz’s injury simply impacts the back end of the Marlins’ bench, losing Stowers would have a much more negative impact on Miami’s season. Stowers is coming off an All-Star season that saw him hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 home runs over 457 PA, but (ironically, given Ruiz’s situation) Stowers’ breakout year was ended by an oblique strain in mid-August. Considering how the 79-83 Marlins finished only four games back of the Reds for the final NL wild card berth, it isn’t a reach to suggest that losing Stowers might’ve cost the Fish a playoff trip.
Should Stowers need to start 2026 on the 10-day IL, Javier Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, or perhaps Christopher Morel (slated for now as a first baseman) or Connor Norby (who has been getting some time as an outfielder) could all fill in for Stowers in left field. The Marlins are thin on other outfield options on their 40-man roster, so if a prospect isn’t added to the 40-man, Miami might also explore the trade or free agent market for outfield help as teams continue to make their late-camp cuts.
Marlins Name Janson Junk Fifth Starter, Option Braxton Garrett
The Marlins announced Friday that left-hander Braxton Garrett has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Manager Clayton McCullough confirmed to the team’s beat that righty Janson Junk will open the season as Miami’s fifth starter (via Kevin Barral of Fish On First).
Junk, 30, was always going to make the club’s roster, given last year’s solid showing and his lack of minor league options. The question was whether it’d be in the rotation or in a swing capacity. He pitched 110 innings with a 4.17 ERA, 17.2% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate and 40.6% grounder rate in 21 appearances last year (16 starts, five relief outings). That strikeout rate is well below average, but Junk’s walk rate was elite — the lowest among the 127 MLB pitchers who tossed at least 100 frames last year.
This spring, Junk allowed five runs in five official innings but punched out 26% of his opponents against a solid walk rate. Putting him in the rotation affords the Marlins more flexibility with regard to their bullpen composition and also gives Garrett some additional time to round back into form after missing the 2025 season due to injury.
Garrett, 28, was the No. 7 overall pick by the Marlins back in 2016. He never ranked as a top prospect and had done little to make good on that lofty draft status until a breakout showing in 2022-23. Garrett combined for 47 starts (247 2/3 innings) with a 3.63 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate across those two seasons, all but solidifying a long-term rotation spot for himself — or so it seemed.
In 2024, Garrett was limited to just seven starts, during which he struggled badly (5.35 ERA). A shoulder impingement and a flexor strain necessitated separate trips to the injured list that season, and his hopes for a 2025 rebound were dashed when he required UCL surgery last spring. Garrett didn’t pitch at all last year and has been built up judiciously thus far. He’s only pitched four official innings in Grapefruit League games, though he’s gotten side work on the back fields.
This is Garrett’s final minor league option year. He’s earning $1.53MM in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. As long as he spends even four days on the active roster this year (which seems like a given), he’ll be under club control through the 2028 season.
With Garrett opening the year in Jacksonville, Miami will begin the season with Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Chris Paddack, Max Meyer and Junk in the rotation. Between Garrett’s eventual return and the likely MLB debuts for top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling, there could be a fair bit of turnover on that staff this year. If Miami isn’t in contention this summer, both Alcantara and Paddack will stand as natural trade chips if they’re performing well.
Poll: How Will The Marlins Round Out Their Rotation?
While the Marlins enjoyed an encouraging season in 2025 with a 79-83 record that put them on the periphery of playoff race relevance, the club is nonetheless still engaged in a multi-year rebuilding effort. This offseason, that meant trades of controllable rotation pieces in order to bring more young talent into the system. Right-hander Edward Cabrera was dealt to the Cubs for a package headlined by outfielder Owen Caissie, while lefty Ryan Weathers was shipped to the Yankees in return for a package of four prospects. Those departures from the rotation mix would be damaging to any team, but the Marlins are in position to weather the losses thanks to their exceptional pitching depth. Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez both have ace-level ceilings at the front of the rotation. The Marlins believe Max Meyer is ready to take the step into full-time rotation work after parts of three seasons in the majors, and veteran Chris Paddack was brought in via free agency to eat innings.
That leaves four spots in the rotation accounted for. For much of the offseason the assumption had been that lefty Braxton Garrett would reclaim his spot in the rotation after missing out on the 2025 campaign due to injury. Recent reporting from Christina De Nicola of MLB.com suggests that might not be guaranteed, however. De Nicola writes that the Marlins could consider giving Garrett additional time to rehab and build up towards his return to the majors after last year’s Tommy John surgery. That could involve him beginning the year on the injured list, or even simply using his final remaining option year to send him to the minors. Garrett was incredibly impressive for Miami back in 2023, with a 3.66 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) and a solid 23.7% strikeout rate.
Typically, it would be a shock to see the Marlins not simply go back to the once-effective southpaw for the final spot in their rotation. With that said, however, there are some indications that the club is giving a real consideration to Garrett starting the year in the minors. The lefty did struggle a bit in the seven starts he made during the 2024 campaign when he was healthy enough to take the mound, though some grace must be given considering that those starts came with solid peripherals and in the midst of an injury-marred campaign. On the other hand, De Nicola does note that the Marlins are hoping to have Garrett make changes to his approach this year and move into the strike zone a bit more often.
That’s a change that could take some getting used to for the lefty, and simultaneously changing his philosophy as a pitcher while also rehabbing could be a tall order for one Spring Training. If there are questions about Garrett’s ability to take on that workload, starting the season in the minors could make sense. That’s especially true given that Garrett’s return from Tommy John surgery has some similarities to that of Alcantara, who struggled badly upon his return last year. The Marlins are surely hoping to do a better job positioning Garrett for success when he returns than they did with the former Cy Young award winner, and that the lefty will be able to do a lot better this year than Alcantara’s 5.36 ERA in 31 starts last season.
If Garrett were to start the season in the minors, to whom could the Marlins turn? Perhaps the most obvious choice would be right-hander Janson Junk, who served as a swingman for the Marlins last year and posted a solid 4.17 ERA in 110 innings of work (including 16 starts) with even better peripherals. De Nicola notes that manager Clayton McCullough indicated that the club views Junk as a starter, and the team has worked to stretch him out this spring in order to keep him available as an option to start games. With that said, Junk pitched much better as a reliever (2.78 ERA) than as a starter (4.53 ERA) last season and has struggled a bit during camp this spring. Some of that can be attributed to poor sequencing considering Junk’s lackluster 62.2% strand rate in games he started last year, but his strikeout rate dropping from 22.5% in relief to 15.9% when starting games is surely no coincidence.
One other option could be top prospect Robby Snelling. Snelling would be something of a surprise pick for the Marlins, but the former first-rounder and current top-100 prospect is clearly poised to make his big league debut at some point this year. He turned in a dominant year between Double- and Triple-A last year, including 11 starts of 1.27 ERA baseball at the minors’ highest level. He struck out 30.3% of his opponents between both levels, and while he’s struggled in terms of run prevention (7.56 ERA) this spring his 32.5% strikeout rate during camp has been excellent. The Marlins have rarely allowed their young starters to stick in the majors for an entire wire-to-wire big league season during their rookie year, but if the team prefers to slow-play Garrett and keep Junk in a swing role then they might be best served starting Snelling in the majors and sending him down later in the year if he struggles or the rest of the staff is healthy when Garrett is ready.
How do MLBTR readers think the Marlins will ultimately handle the fifth spot in their rotation? Will they stick with Garrett to open the year even in spite of how things went with Alcantara last year? Will they overlook Junk’s lackluster numbers when starting last year and give him a shot? Or will they turn to top prospect Snelling in spite of his mixed performance during camp? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will open the 2026 season in the Marlins' final rotation spot?
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Braxton Garrett 51% (759)
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Janson Junk 34% (511)
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Robby Snelling 15% (225)
Total votes: 1,495
Marlins Option Joe Mack, Ryan Gusto
The Marlins announced their latest round of camp cuts this morning, and the most notable among that group were the decisions to option top catching prospect Joe Mack and right-hander Ryan Gusto to the minor leagues.
Mack, 23, is a consensus top-100 prospect and a first rounder from Miami’s 2021 draft class. After setting Double-A on fire for 13 games to open the year last season, Mack was promoted to Triple-A and hit a solid .250/.320/.459 with 18 homers, 18 doubles, and 2 triples in 100 games at the level. That was good for a 107 wRC+ at the level, which isn’t quite up to par for the typical top prospect but is nonetheless impressive considering his age and position. A 27.9% strikeout rate at Triple-A last year exacerbates concerns from scouts about Mack’s contact abilities, but the overall package is undoubtedly impressive.
Those questions are perhaps why it was reported last month that, while Mack would get the opportunity to fight his way onto the MLB roster, the team’s preference was for him to begin the season at Triple-A and hand catching duties over to the combination of Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez. Hicks was a pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft who enjoyed a solid rookie season for the Marlins last year. He turned in a 98 wRC+ in 119 games behind the plate, though lackluster defensive metrics left him to be worth just 1.0 fWAR and 1.3 bWAR. Ramirez was also a rookie last year, and was the prize of the team’s Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade with the Yankees at the 2024 trade deadline. Ramirez slugged 21 homers in 136 games but got on base at just a .287 clip, leaving him with a 91 wRC+. He split time between catcher, first base, and DH in his first year as a big leaguer without showing strong defense at any of those positions.
There’s little doubt that Mack will be the long-term answer for the Marlins behind the plate as long as he hits at an even close to league average clip. He’s a well-regarded defender behind the plate who has been lauded for his strong arm and is far and a way the best defender of the team’s three young catchers according to scouts. With that being said, Mack is still young enough with enough questions about his hitting that it’s somewhat understandable that the Marlins would be interested in giving him more time to develop in the minor leagues. That’s all the more true after a tough spring at the plate, where he went just 3-for-24 with seven strikeouts. There’s little doubt that Mack will make his MLB debut at some point this year so long as he stays healthy, but in the meantime Christina De Nicola of MLB.com writes that the Marlins are encouraging him to work on his approach at the plate and spend more time getting familiar with the ABS strike zone while he waits for that opportunity at Triple-A.
As for Gusto, the right-hander was a key piece of the return for Jesus Sanchez at last year’s trade deadline. Gusto made his big league debut with the Astros just last year and was a solid swing man for Houston, posting a 4.92 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 86 innings split between ten starts and 14 relief appearances. After being dealt to the Marlins, however, Gusto struggled badly. He made three starts in Miami and allowed 17 runs on 19 hits (including four home runs) and walked (8) nearly as many batters as he struck out (10), ending with a 9.77 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work. He struggled just as badly at Triple-A, and while he looked a bit better this spring he’s still ultimately squeezed out of a crowded Marlins rotation and better serves the Marlins as stretched-out depth than converting to a short relief role in the bullpen.
Which Top Prospects Could Be On 2026 Opening Day Rosters?
In the not-too-distant past, it was relatively rare for organizations to break camp with their very best prospects on the roster. It still happened at times, but MLB's service time structure was set up such that keeping a top prospect in the minors for even two weeks to begin the season effectively ensured that he'd be controllable for seven years rather than the standard six. There were obvious exceptions to this thinking -- Atlanta fans surely remember Jason Heyward breaking camp as a 20-year-old and belting a three-run homer on Opening Day -- but there were far more cases of keeping a player in the minors to buy the extra year. Kris Bryant, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others were all called to the majors just when they'd spent enough time in the minors to give their clubs an extra year of control. There was nothing inherently nefarious about the gambit; teams were operating within the collectively bargained rules and making business decisions.
The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement sought to implement some real incentives for teams to bring their best players north to begin the season, however, and by and large they've been effective. With the Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI), any prospect who appears on two recognized top-100 lists and is called up early enough to earn a full service year can net his team a bonus draft pick, either in that season's Rookie of the Year voting or in MVP/Cy Young voting over the next three seasons.
There's also a disincentive to holding a player down. For those same qualified top prospects, a top-two finish in either league's Rookie of the Year voting will net a full year of major league service time, regardless of when they were called up. Said prospects still have around 90% of a season in such instances, which is more than enough time to turn in a ROY-worthy performance.
Teams now know that holding a player down for 15 days or so might lead to him getting a full year of service anyhow and comes with the disadvantage of rendering that player ineligible for future PPI picks. As such, it's become increasingly common for touted prospects to break camp on their teams' rosters.
With that in mind, and with fewer than two weeks to go until Opening Day, it seems worth running through a slate of top prospects who could factor into their teams' Opening Day plans.
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