Cubs Rumors

Left-hander Shota Imanaga has become a free agent, according to a report from Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs declined their three-year, $57MM club option on Imanaga’s services for 2026-28, and Imanaga subsequently declined his $15MM player option for 2026.

It’s an outcome that would’ve seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. Signed out of Japan to a deal that was on paper a four-year, $53MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason that had the aforementioned complex option structure set to kick in after the 2025 campaign, Imanaga was nothing short of sensational for Chicago in his first year as an MLB pitcher last year. In 29 starts, he pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate across 173 1/3 innings of work that earned him an All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

While that strong rookie campaign seemed to portend a long stay near the front of Chicago’s rotation for Imanaga, things started to unravel this year. Early in the season, he managed to get strong results despite shoddy peripherals, with a 2.82 ERA through eight starts despite a 4.59 FIP and a strikeout rate that had plummeted to just 18.8%. His season was abruptly put on hold by a hamstring injury that cost him nearly two months, and when he returned his strikeout rate continued to dip. He did manage to fire off seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts during his first start after the All-Star break, but from there he began a downward spiral where his results started to match his lackluster peripherals.

From July 25 through the end of the season, Imanaga made 12 starts where he surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.42 FIP across 69 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, creeping back up to 23.2%, but he allowed an eye-popping 20 home runs in that stretch. Imanaga has always had trouble with the long ball, and even in his excellent 2024 campaign he allowed the tenth-most homers among qualified starters. This year, his 31 homers allowed were the fourth-most in all of baseball despite him pitching just 144 2/3 frames. That’s fewer innings than anyone else in the top 20 besides Tyler Anderson, who allowed 28 homers in 136 1/3 innings of work.

In spite of his lackluster season, a poll of MLBTR readers on September 10 suggested that more than 91% believed the Cubs should exercise his club option. From that point onward, what seemed at the time like a borderline call became more clear as he posted an 8.04 ERA in his final three regular season starts before posting an 8.10 ERA in the postseason and ultimately being passed over for a winner-take-all Game 5 start against the Brewers in the ALDS despite him being on regular rest. By that time, this outcome seemed far more likely. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took a guess at Imanaga’s future in our Offseason Outlook coverage of the Cubs on October 22, and settled on the sides both declining their options and Imanaga heading into free agency.

From the Cubs’ perspective, moving on from Imanaga is understandable for a handful of reasons. By picking up his option, the Cubs would be counting on Imanaga to rebound into at least mid-rotation form for his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. That might not seem like a bad bet to make, but it’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is notoriously fickle in terms of park factors thanks to the wind. In 2024, when Imanaga was at his best with the Cubs, Wrigley suppressed home runs at the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball according to Statcast. This year, that inverted to make the Friendly Confines the 11th-friendliest ballpark in baseball to home run hitters.

Perhaps Imanaga will be able to return to form elsewhere, particularly if he signs in a park with more consistent homer-suppressing tendencies, but it’s not hard to see why the Cubs wouldn’t want to commit to him long-term given that reality. That doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility that he’ll return to the Cubs at all; Rogers reports that it’s not yet clear if Chicago intends to extend Imanaga the qualifying offer. Recouping draft pick compensation for Imanaga if he departs would surely be attractive to the Cubs, and him accepting the QO may be preferable to having kept him on a three-year deal at a lower annual cost due to the short-term nature of the arrangement. With that said, the market has plenty of mid-rotation or better starters available this winter, and the Cubs might prefer to not risk Imanaga accepting the offer so they can reallocate those dollars to a starter they feel better fits their roster.