Can Any Expected Contenders Escape The Early Holes They’ve Dug?
It's commonplace for at least one postseason hopeful to run into unexpected struggles early in the season. In the past, we've seen World Series aspirants and Wild Card hopefuls alike shoot themselves in the foot with sloppy April sequences that jeopardize their visions of October baseball. In some instances -- the 2022 Phillies, the 2024 Mets and, most notably, the 2019 Nationals -- teams are able to rally and make good on those playoff goals. For those 2019 Nats, they went so far as to win the whole thing. Nary a baseball fan in D.C. will ever forget the significance of the 19-31 record they faced roughly one-third of the way through the season.
More commonly, however, a disappointing April can prove to be a backbreaker. Fans need only look as far back as the 2025 Orioles to see a would-be contender whose awful early performance sunk their season before it ever had a chance to get going in earnest. The Orioles wrapped up April with a 12-18 record. By the midway mark of May, they were 15-27 -- buried by nine and a half games in the American League East and with their postseason hopes all but dashed.
There have been plenty of oddities so far in the 2026 season. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are the first pair of teammates in MLB history with active streaks of homers in four or more consecutive games. (Oh, and Miguel Vargas has gone deep in three straight.) We're about one-sixth of the way through the season and Mason Miller has fanned a superhuman 71% of his opponents through 11 1/3 innings. Tigers phenom Kevin McGonigle, who skipped Triple-A entirely and broke camp as a 21-year-old, ranks fourth in the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR or fifth in FanGraphs WAR, if you prefer.
But the strangest development of the 2026 doesn't focus on any one player's individual efforts. To see the most bizarre facet of the season's first month requires a step back and a more macro look at the league as a whole.
Entering play Thursday, the four worst teams in baseball weren't the Rockies, Nationals, Twins or any other widely expected cellar dweller. Instead, the bottom-four records belong to the Royals, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox -- four clubs that entered the season with clear designs on contending. Fifth-worst are the White Sox -- not terribly surprising -- followed by the sixth-worst Astros. One game up in the standings are the Blue Jays and Mariners, last year's ALCS opponents.
In any given year, seeing one or two of these clubs faceplant out of the gate wouldn't be all that remarkable. Teams fall short of expectations all the time -- often well short. But to see seven clubs who entered 2026 as win-now teams populate bottom-10 spots in the leaguewide standings with more than four weeks of the season in the books is fairly incredible.
Is the season lost for any of these clubs? Not quite yet, but the margin for error has all but eroded. For most of these clubs -- especially the bottom four -- it's going to take something close to .600 ball the rest of the way to end up in contention. Let's take a look at this year's most disappointing clubs at the season's one-month mark to see if there's a chance of a rebound and, if not, who they might have to begrudgingly listen on at this year's Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Royals Release Plans For New Stadium
The Royals announced plans for a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City, specifically in the Crown Center neighborhood. A joint venture with Hallmark Cards, the project will also featured mixed-use elements, including new headquarters for both the club and the company. It is expected to cost about $3 billion in total with the stadium itself accounting for about two thirds of that. It will be funded with a mix of private and public sources. Kacen Bayless and Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star and Dave Skretta of the Associated Press were among those to provide further details.
John Sherman purchased the Royals in 2019 and has been focused on getting funding for a new stadium for much of the interim. Kauffman Stadium opened in 1973 and is one of the five oldest ballparks in the league, with only Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium being older.
The path to a new stadium hit a setback a few years ago. The Royals and the NFL’s Chiefs were hoping to get public funding for new stadiums from Jackson County, where Kansas City, Missouri is located. However, voters rejected a sales tax measure in April of 2024. That seemingly played a part in the Chiefs leaving the state, as they plan to play in Kansas City, Kansas starting in 2031.
Unlike the Chiefs, the Royals are going to stay in Missouri. It’s still not clear if Jackson County will provide any of the funding but the project has money coming from other sources. The Royals announced that they would be the primary funders, with over $2 billion in private funding in total. The state of Missouri and the city of Kansas City are also providing some. Missouri passed a law last year which allows the state to fund up to 50% of major stadium construction projects. Last week, the city passed an ordinance authorizing the city manager to negotiate a deal with the Royals worth up to $600MM.
Some details are still not clear. The specific timing of the planned moved hasn’t been announced. The team’s lease at Kauffman runs through 2031, so they have time in that regard. As mentioned, it’s unclear if Jackson County will provide any funds. The exact amount contributed by the state of Missouri hasn’t been reported. Kansas City council still has to give final approval and it’s possible the council could push for a public vote.
“We are so far away from a done deal,” councilman Johnathan Duncan said to the Star this week. “We still need a development agreement. We need a TIF (tax increment financing) plan. We need a CID. And we need some type of actual plan from the Royals that says this is what we’re going to be using the $600 million of bonds for.”
A formal club announcement doesn’t necessarily mean everything will proceed as planned. For instance, the Rays previously announced plans for a new stadium in St. Petersburg on the same site as Tropicana Field. But hurricane damage to the Trop led to fighting about repairs and ultimately squashed the deal. That’s a rare example and it’s unlikely something like that will happen in Kansas City but it illustrates that they still have to dot some i’s and cross some t’s.
Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: Kevin McGonigle, The Padres’ Franchise Valuation, And Edwin Díaz To Miss Time
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Tigers signing Kevin McGonigle to an eight-year extension (1:30)
- José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones reportedly having an agreement in place to buy the Padres (13:10)
- Dodgers right-hander Edwin Díaz requiring elbow surgery (27:20)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Are the Braves for real? And what do they do once their injured guys get healthy? (32:20)
- If a salary cap is theoretically implemented, how would it work with the teams currently over the cap? (40:50)
- Can Michael Wacha of the Royals keep up his dominance? (45:50)
- What are the Reds going to do with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl? (48:15)
- Can the Nationals keep up this level of offense? And if so, should they have invested more in this year’s pitching staff? (52:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Lenyn Sosa Traded, And Injury Concerns For The Astros, Cubs And Orioles – listen here
- Previewing The 2026-27 Free-Agent Class – listen here
- Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Royals Place Jonathan India On IL With Shoulder Subluxation
The Royals announced that infielder Jonathan India has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 19th, due to a left shoulder subluxation. Infielder/outfielder Nick Loftin has been recalled as the corresponding move.
Per Anne Rogers of MLB.com, this is the same shoulder injury that India has battled in the past. On June 13th of 2025, he dove for a ground ball and clearly hurt himself, as seen in this clip from MLB.com. He suffered a subluxation at that time. He didn’t go on the IL for that shoulder but did occasionally miss time for the rest of the year.
India had a subpar season, though it doesn’t seem as though the shoulder injury explains the whole thing. He had a .249/.332/.336 line and 89 wRC+ through that June 13th game, followed by a .219/.315/.355 line and 89 wRC+ after it. He did have an IL stint in that latter section, but it was due to a left wrist sprain. He is out to a rough .167/.310/.313 start so far in 2026.
Whether it’s due to the injuries or not, the Royals surely hoped for more when they acquired India from the Reds ahead of the 2025 season. He slashed .253/.352/.412 with Cincinnati from 2021 to 2024, production which translated to a wRC+ of 108. After his rough 2025, he became a speculative non-tender candidate, but the Royals brought him back by signing him to an $8MM deal for this year.
So far, that investment hasn’t paid off. Ideally, India can get healthy and get back on track, though the next steps are unclear at this point. Per Rogers, India received an injection and will be seeing another doctor this week.
With India out of commission, the Royals will likely use some combination of Michael Massey and Loftin to cover second base. Massey started the season on the IL due to a calf strain and has hit .174/.208/.261 since coming back. That’s in a tiny sample of 24 plate appearances but he also hit .244/.268/.313 for a 57 wRC+ last year, so he hasn’t been in good form for quite a while. Loftin has 438 career plate appearances with a .220/.296/.323 line and 73 wRC+.
The Royals are out to a 7-15 start, tied with the Mets for the worst record in baseball. The team has a combined .218/.296/.339 batting line and 79 wRC+, which places them ahead of only the Reds among big league clubs. Though India has been struggling, it doesn’t appear that subtracting him from the lineup is likely to help matters.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Royals Recall Mason Black
Right-hander Mason Black is set for his Royals debut on Sunday. He’ll be joined by catcher Elias Diaz, who had his contract selected by the club. Right-hander Mitch Spence and infielder Tyler Tolbert were optioned to make room for Black and Diaz, the team announced. Right-hander James McArthur was moved to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man spot for Diaz.
Kansas City acquired Black from the Giants for right-hander Logan Martin in November. Black had some fanfare when he first came up with San Francisco in 2024, but he failed to provide consistent results. The righty finished his Giants tenure with a 6.47 ERA in 10 games over the past two seasons.
The 26-year-old Black was almost exclusively used as a starter in San Francisco, but he’s moved to a relief role with Kansas City. He has a 3.86 ERA over seven appearances at Triple-A this year. Black locked down the first two saves of his professional career with Omaha. Despite the full-time move to the bullpen, Black has just a 12.5% strikeout rate so far. Often, those numbers improve when starters make the change to relief work, as their stuff usually plays up in shorter outings.
Spence joined the organization in February following a trade from the Athletics. He didn’t break camp with the team, but came up in early April when right-hander Luinder Avila was sent down. Spence was tagged for six earned runs across four innings in mop-up duty against the Yankees on Saturday. He’ll head back to Triple-A after just the one big-league appearance.
Tolbert made the team out of camp, beating out Drew Waters for a roster spot. Michael Massey‘s calf strain in MLB Spring Training helped Tolbert and Nick Loftin earn roster spots. Loftin was sent down when Massey returned. Now, it’s Tolbert’s turn. He appeared in eight games with the Royals, with the majority of his work coming as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Tolbert managed a hit in five plate appearances.
McArthur missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing elbow surgery. He opened the 2026 campaign on the 15-day IL due to elbow inflammation. His return timeline is uncertain. The righty was a key member of Kansas City’s late-inning group when he last pitched, recording 18 saves in 2024.
Photo courtesy of Scott Sewell, Imagn Images
Royals To Select Contract Of Elias Díaz
The Royals are planning to call up catcher Elias Díaz from Triple-A, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. The ACES client is not on the 40-man roster, so corresponding moves will be needed.
Díaz, 35, signed a minor-league deal with Kansas City in late February and was invited to big-league Spring Training. While he batted .533/.533/.800 in six games there, he was mostly signed for depth given the presence of Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen. Starting the year at the Royals’ top affiliate, Díaz has so far batted .226/.294/.258 in 34 plate appearances. That’s admittedly a small sample, but it’s still pretty weak production even for the light-hitting veteran.
Instead, Díaz’s promotion could be about giving Perez a chance to rest and reset. Now in his age-36 season, the Royals’ captain has gotten out to a brutal start at the plate. In 81 PA across his first 20 games, Perez has batted just .160/.210/.307, which amounts to a meager 36 wRC+. His walk rate has mostly held constant from 2025, while his 21.0% strikeout rate is only a slight increase. Instead, Perez’s downturn has resulted from a drop in power as well as poor batted-ball luck. He posted a .209 isolated slugging percentage last year, but that has fallen to .147 so far in 2026. Of greater note is that Perez is batting just .161 on balls in play, which would easily be the worst mark of his career.
A look at Perez’s batted ball metrics offer some explanation. His average exit velocity has declined to 89.0 MPH, continuing a year-over-year decline since the 2024 season. Meanwhile, his soft and hard contact percentages have both trended in the wrong direction by about 7%. Obviously, it’s hard to draw conclusions from only 20 games’ worth of data, but the bottom line is that Perez has been a liability in the Royals’ offense to start the year. That led manager Matt Quatraro to give Perez a “mental breather” against the Yankees today by withholding him from the starting lineup (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Perez ultimately did not play in the game, which the Royals lost 13-4.
The fact that the Royals are bringing up Díaz despite his own lack of offense could signal a few more days off for Perez. In that scenario, the Royals would turn to Jensen as the starting catcher, with Díaz as the temporary backup. Jensen has a 97 wRC+ in 19 games as a DH and backup catcher to Perez. That’s a step down from the 159 wRC+ he posted last year, although that was also in a small sample of 69 PA. Nonetheless, Jensen has continued to hit for power, and his overall output is roughly average for catchers, so it makes sense to give him more playing time for now.
Meanwhile, Díaz joins the big-league club as a defensive backup. He was valued at -15 Defensive Runs Saved in 2022 for the Rockies, followed by -16 DRS in 2023. He’s mostly turned it around since then. Statcast gave him plus marks for his caught stealing rate, framing, and pop time in 2024, while his blocking graded out in the 61st percentile in 2025. Díaz hits from the right side, while Jensen hits from the left. Díaz has hit about the same against lefties and righties in his career, but he did better against righties in 2025. Jensen also hits righties better, so it’s unlikely the two will be used in a platoon arrangement. More likely is that Jensen starts every day while Díaz acts as a bench option until Perez is back in the lineup.
Corresponding moves for Díaz have not been announced. Outfielder Isaac Collins is currently day to day with a right knee contusion, according to the Royals’ injury report. He went through a full pregame workout yesterday, so he seems likely to avoid the injured list. On the pitching side, Mitch Spence threw 84 pitches in a four-inning relief appearance today. He could be sent down for active roster space, leaving the club with 12 pitchers rather than 13 in the short term. Clearing room on the 40-man roster would require one of the club’s injured players to be transferred to the 60-day IL, or someone else to be designated for assignment.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
Kansas City Officials Propose Royals’ Stadium Plan
The Royals have spent a few years trying to secure public funding towards a new stadium. Those efforts seem closer to reality. Kansas City mayor Quinton Lucas announced this afternoon that his office has proposed an ordinance towards a $1.9 billion investment plan for a new stadium and surrounding infrastructure in the Washington Square Park area in downtown Kansas City. Sam McDowell and Kacen Bayless of The Kansas City Star first reported the news in a column which those in the area will want to read in full.
The proposal would authorize roughly $600MM in city funding towards the project. That’s independent of whatever money would come from the state. Last summer, Missouri passed a law that allows the state to fund up to 50% of major stadium construction projects.
That was geared not only towards the Royals but also the NFL’s Chiefs, who have sought a move out of Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs ultimately found what they consider a better deal with Kansas lawmakers. They announced in December they’ll proceed with plans to move over the state border in 2031 on a $3 billion domed stadium in Kansas City, Kansas.
Today’s news makes it seem there’s a decent chance the Royals will remain in Kansas City, Missouri. However, this is not any kind of binding arrangement. It’d still need approval from the City Council, to say nothing of an agreement from the Royals themselves.
The idea would be for the Royals to commit to a 30-year lease beginning in 2030. The team’s lease at Kauffman Stadium runs through 2030, but the mayor’s office evidently hopes to have the new stadium ready for play a year in advance. He told reporters this evening the hope is for construction to begin early in 2027.
The team has not formally weighed in on the terms. Owner John Sherman has generally voiced support for a downtown ballpark. The mayor tells The K.C. Star that this proposal was the result of “hours and hours of extensive discussion” with the team. Even if the Royals are on board with the city’s plans, the state’s contributions would still need to be sorted out. Notably, this proposal does not include plans for a public vote. In April 2024, Jackson County voters shot down a sales tax measure to fund Royals/Chiefs stadium projects via referendum.
The Royals have played at Kauffman Stadium since 1973. It’s the fifth-oldest active venue in MLB behind Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium, and Angel Stadium.
Royals Activate Michael Massey From IL, Option Nick Loftin
Second baseman Michael Massey is back with the Royals after missing the first three series of the year with a calf strain. The 28-year-old went down with the injury during MLB Spring Training in early March, but it was deemed minor at the time. Massey ultimately needed just three games at Triple-A to get back into playing shape. Nick Loftin was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.
Massey got off to a miserable start as Kansas City’s primary second baseman last season, posting a .479 OPS into early June. He hit the IL with an ankle sprain on June 10. Massey didn’t have an everyday job when he returned, but he made the most of limited opportunities. The lefty swinger slashed .375/.412/.484 in 21 games over the final five weeks of the season.
Jonathan India has handled the majority of reps at second base for Kansas City. After getting a taste of the outfielder in his first year with the club, the former Red is back on the dirt on a more regular basis, with trade acquisition Isaac Collins manning left field. Massey could factor in at the keystone against right-handed pitching, though it’s not an obvious pairing.
India has an identical 104 wRC+ against righties and lefties for his career, so he’s unlikely to slip into a short-side platoon role. Massey might be a slight upgrade on defense. India posted -2 Defensive Runs Saved at second base in 2025, which was actually his best mark since 2021. Massey posted 2 DRS in 495 innings at the position last season, though he hadn’t been a positive with the glove since his rookie year in 2022.
Loftin broke camp with the team following the Massey IL placement. He and Tyler Tolbert were locked in a battle with Drew Waters for the final bench spots. Waters was designated for assignment two days before the season opener. With Massey healthy, it’ll be Loftin heading back to the minors. He started a pair of games at second base and one in left field. Loftin managed a pair of hits in nine at-bats. This is his final minor league option year.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
Injury Notes: Eflin, Kirk, Cleavinger, Falter
Orioles righty Zach Eflin didn’t travel with the team to Pittsburgh. He’s on the 15-day injured list due to an elbow issue, and manager Craig Albernaz told reporters prior to today’s series opener against the Pirates that Eflin is headed for a second opinion with orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). Eflin exited his first start of the season in the fourth inning due to elbow discomfort. The O’s sent him for imaging and placed him on the 15-day injured list the following day. Albernaz did not disclose the findings of the original MRI.
It’s an ominous scenario for the Orioles and for Eflin, who returned to Baltimore on a one-year, $10MM deal after undergoing back surgery in August. The 31-year-old righty (32 next week) wound up making it back from that surgery in time for Opening Day but now has a separate injury issue threatening his ability to contribute. Eflin was terrific with the Rays and O’s from 2023-24, pitching to a combined 3.54 ERA in 343 innings across the first two seasons of a three-year, $40MM deal originally signed with Tampa Bay. He was rocked for a 5.93 ERA in 14 starts last season while trying to pitch through lat and back injuries.
A few more injury situations of particular note from around the league…
- The Blue Jays are awaiting x-ray results on catcher Alejandro Kirk, writes Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The Toronto backstop left today’s loss to the White Sox in the bottom of the tenth with a left thumb injury. An Austin Hays foul tip struck Kirk awkwardly in his glove hand, and he left the game with trainers. Tyler Heineman came off the bench to finish the game (and showed some rust on a throwing error that allowed the tying run to score with two outs). Brandon Valenzuela is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Skipper John Schneider indicated he’d get his first major league call if Kirk misses time.
- Rays lefty Garrett Cleavinger landed on the 15-day injured list this morning due to tightness in his right calf, per the team. Right-hander Hunter Bigge was recalled from Triple-A Durham in his place. It certainly doesn’t sound like a serious injury, but any absence for Cleavinger is notable for Tampa Bay. Though he’s not a household name, the 31-year-old southpaw pitched to a 3.04 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate in 133 1/3 innings from 2023-25. He’s emerged as a key late-inning arm for skipper Kevin Cash, totaling six saves and 36 holds over the past two seasons.
- The Royals are also down a lefty reliever, as they placed swingman Bailey Falter on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. Luinder Avila is up from Triple-A and will start the first game of tomorrow’s doubleheader against Milwaukee. (Avila would have started tonight before the series opener was scrapped by weather.) Anne Rogers of MLB.com relays that Falter received an injection to treat valgus extension overload and will be shut down from throwing for a few days. The southpaw missed the final five weeks last season with biceps inflammation and has been tagged for five runs over 3 1/3 innings during his first two appearances.
Royals Place Carlos Estévez On Injured List
The Royals announced that right-hander Carlos Estévez has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to March 29th, with a left foot contusion. Right-hander Steven Cruz has been recalled as the corresponding move.
Estévez has made one appearance in the season so far and it was painful, in more ways than one. He was hit by a comebacker off the bat of Michael Harris II, as seen in this video from MLB.com. He stayed in the game and then gave up a walk-off grand slam to Dominic Smith. The next day, the righty had his foot in a boot, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
After a few days of evaluating the injury, the Royals have decided to put him on the shelf. They have backdated the IL move by the three-day maximum, which is allowed since Estévez didn’t pitch in the interim.
The IL placement might be about giving Estévez a reset, as much as anything. In the wake of that unfortunate outing against Atlanta, the Royals were considering moving Estévez out of the closer’s role. His velocity has been worryingly low this year. As of 2024, he was averaging almost 97 miles per hour with his four-seamer. That dropped below 96 mph last year as his strikeout rate also dipped by a few points. During spring training, he was below 90 mph. He ticked up in the game against Atlanta but only to 91.2.
Now that he’s on the IL, Estévez can heal up his foot and then spend some time trying to figure out a solution to his diminished stuff. A benefit of the IL placement is that he could do some tinkering in the minors. As a veteran with at least five years of service time, he can’t be optioned without his consent. But he can be sent on a minor league rehab assignment, which can last as long as 30 days. While Estévez is out, the Royals will likely give the save opportunities to Lucas Erceg, while guys like Matt Strahm and John Schreiber pitch in setup situations.
Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images