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Archives for March 2007

2007 Seattle Mariners

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Obviously I’ve fallen a bit behind on these team outlooks, but I’ll keep them going even as they extend into the season.  Today we have the Mariners.

Bill Bavasi’s contract obligations:

C – Kenji Johjima – $5.2MM + $0.33MM signing bonus = $5.53MM + incentives
C – Rene Rivera – $0.38MM
1B – Richie Sexson – $14MM + 1.5MM signing bonus = 15.5MM
2B – Jose Lopez – $0.38MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $0.4MM + $0.3275MM signing bonus = $0.7275MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $11.5MM + 1.4MM signing bonus = $12.9MM
IF – Ben Broussard – $3.55MM
IF – Willie Bloomquist – $0.825MM + $0.05MM signing bonus = $0.875MM
LF – Raul Ibanez – $5.5MM
CF – Ichiro Suzuki – $11MM + $1.5MM signing bonus = $12.5MM + incentives
RF – Jose Guillen – $5MM + incentives
OF – Jeremy Reed – $0.38MM
DH – Jose Vidro – $7.5MM – $2MM from Nats = $5.5MM

SP – Felix Hernandez – $0.42MM
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $8.75MM
SP – Jeff Weaver – $8.325MM + incentives
SP – Miguel Batista – $8.33MM
SP – Horacio Ramirez – $2.65MM

RP – J.J. Putz – $2.2MM + $0.5MM signing bonus = $2.7MM
RP – Chris Reitsma – $1.35MM
RP – Julio Mateo – $1MM + $0.075MM signing bonus = $1.075MM
RP – George Sherrill – $0.38MM
RP – Jake Woods – $0.38MM
RP – Arthur Rhodes – $0.38MM
RP – Jon Huber – $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

RP – Mark Lowe – $0.38MM
RP – Aaron Small – $0.38MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $0.38MM
3B – Sean Burroughs – $0.45MM + incentives

Maybe someone can tell me whether signing bonuses are typically spread throughout the life of the contract.  That’s what I’ve done here (the Mariners seem to love signing bonuses).  By my calculations this is a $104MM Opening Day payroll.  You can’t call the team cheap.

The Ms offense was the second-worst in the league last year.  They made two change.  Jose Vidro, while a subpar DH and lousy acquisition, can’t help but improve upon the lackluster performance of Carl Everett and Co. last year.  And with Ichiro sticking in center, the Ms are essentially replacing the offense of Reed and Bloomquist with Guillen.  The offense appears to have the potential to reach the middle of the pack.

The Mariners have some trade candidates in Reed and Broussard, but given Bavasi’s track record, I’d be surprised if he made deals with them to improve the team.   

As for the rotation, not giving 25 starts to Joel Pineiro should help.  They’re going for a mostly groundball approach with this staff, and it should be better.  Last year’s starters posted a cumulative 4.88 ERA.  Lack of Pineiro and a step forward from Felix might be able to put them around 4.50.

Replacing Rafael Soriano with Chris Reitsma in the eighth inning will damage the club.  And it’s not a big deal yet, but lights out closer J.J. Putz is nursing a tender elbow this spring.  The pen could fall apart in a hurry.  Last year’s group had a 4.04 ERA.   

To me, the Mariners have very little chance of making the playoffs this year. I suppose they could pull off an upset with some career years in the rotation, no injuries, and great leaps forward from Lopez and Betancourt.  Still, the odds are stacked against them.

   

Shelton May Be Trade Bait

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Chris Shelton is 7 for 14 this spring, and the fine start could get him traded.  I’m not sure why the Tigers are dead set on the lifeless bat of Sean Casey instead, but here we are.  It appears Marcus Thames is the backup plan, leaving no room for Shelton.

With a .263/.352/.480 PECOTA, Shelton can still be an affordable league average first baseman.  And there’s a legitimate chance he bumps it up to a Mo Vaughn/Pat Burrell level for a few seasons.    

The problem for the Tigers is that it’s not terribly hard to find a 1B who can hit like this.  Guys like Josh Phelps are freely available, so I wouldn’t expect an impressive bounty for Shelton.  It may make sense to keep him at Triple A for a month or two and deal him once an injury creates a need for another club.

More On Rowand Rumors

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Just a few tidbits regarding yesterday’s Sun-Times story that the White Sox may reacquire Aaron Rowand.

The Philadelphia Inquirer says that the White Sox have been scouting recent Phillies games, though Rowand did not play yesterday.  Additionally, the Delco Times speculates that the availability of Rowand is directly related to the fine play of Greg Dobbs this spring.  The waiver pickup could platoon with Jayson Werth in right field, with Shane Victorino moving to center.

In a related topic, Buster Olney said today that any Lieber/Rios talks are dead but that the Rangers might make sense for Lieber.

Is Sosa A Mistake For Rangers?

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Josh Lile is a history major at the University of Texas.  I’ve brought him aboard as MLBTR’s Rangers correspondent.  For his first post, Josh weighs in on Sammy Sosa and the consequences of giving him a roster spot.

Sammy Sosa beat out an infield single in today’s game vs. the Cubs. Let me repeat that. Sammy Sosa beat out an infield single. The main point of contention behind Sosa coming to camp is Sammy turning into Juan Gonzalez part deux. Juan Gonzalez, in the minds and hearts of Rangers fans, is remembered as a guy who half-heartedly played the field, walked out infield contact, and barely put any effort into anything. The same reputation was earned in Texas by Alfonso Soriano. Somehow Sammy has been humbled by his year off, and he appears to be hungry enough to make some magic this year.

Sammy, after today’s game vs the Cubs, is hitting .500 in Spring Training games with two homers. His main competition is 26 year-old Jason Botts, a monster who dropped a .980 OPS in AAA Oklahoma last year. The outfield and DH spots are virtually set with Frank Catalanotto, Nelson Cruz, Brad Wilkerson, and Kenny Lofton as the other four.

The last spot will come down to Sosa and Botts. Coming into today Botts was hitting .400, so he isn’t playing himself out of the lineup. So if you have a 38 year-old coming off a year off after steroid rumors, or a 26 year old masher, who do you choose? Personally I think you have to go with Botts or risk him developing into Travis Hafner with another team.  However, Ron Washington seems to be drinking the Sosa Kool-Aid. Ron had this to say in Tom Singer’s article on at MLB.com: "People say he can’t do this or can’t do that, but he hasn’t showed me any of that. He can do anything. It’s his reward for working so hard."

So the question is this: which Sammy shows up if he makes the Opening Day roster? Do we get the slacker Sammy that will do his Juan Gonzalez impersonation, or do we get the hard-working Sammy who will come in and endear himself to Rangers fans? Since 2001 when John Hart blew $100 million on old corner infielders and relievers, the Rangers PR department has failed miserably and alienated many fans. If the hard-working Sammy shows up there is almost no chance Ron Washington keeps him off the roster, and the fans may start to come back.

Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal is in vintage form, cranking out the spring rumors and inside tidbits.  Check out his latest at FOX Sports.  Notable trade rumors within:

  • Akinori Otsuka could be a target of the Cardinals, but they haven’t discussed it with Texas and the Rangers need to have faith in Gagne and other relievers before dealing him.  I don’t know if any team really has a "surplus" of relievers, but the Nats have a couple of good ones they might want to peddle.
  • Chances of a Helton to Boston deal appear slim.  Many had speculated the two teams would revisit talks about now.
  • The Diamondbacks will probably look to trade Scott Hairston and/or Dave Krynzel, with no chance of Hairston hitting waivers.  I’m rooting for Hairston, a talented player who has endured some terrible luck and timing.  I think Kenny Williams should get on the phone with Josh Byrnes.  They’ve completed several deals in the past together, and Hairston is a perfect fit for left field on the Sox.
  • Rosenthal says the Dodgers are looking for bullpen help, though he thinks Marcus Thames or Kevin Mench would make sense for them.  Personally, it seems they already have a logjam of corner guys.  Rosenthal also thinks the Padres would do well to deal for Thames or Reggie Willits.

Braves Sign Mark Redman

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Braves have signed lefty starter Mark Redman to a minor league contract.  Mike Hampton could be out 4-6 weeks with an injury to his side, and the Braves needed a little depth in the rotation anyway.  Redman follows Steve Trachsel as this offseason’s direct beneficiaries of injuries.

Last year, Ozzie Guillen hooked Redman up by making him the Royals’ All-Star rep over Mark Grudzielanek.  Fortunately the Royals seem to have enough talent this year to get a real All-Star chosen.  Personally, I kind of like the one per team rule.  I’m amused when crappy players sneak onto the team.  As a Cubs fan when they were terrible (almost always), I really did watch the All-Star Game mainly to see Steve Trachsel or Jon Lieber get his inning, or Mark Grace get his AB.

Anyway, a return to the NL should help Redman; he should be able to pitch like a fifth starter typically does or even better.  Remember, the average fifth starter has an ERA over 6.  If Redman is under 5 that’s not bad at all.

White Sox May Reacquire Rowand

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Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Sox GM Kenny Williams has been in talks with Pat Gillick regarding Aaron Rowand.  This is not the first time such a possibility has surfaced.  Southpaw Boone Logan may be among the relievers going to Philadelphia.

Even after the Freddy Garcia trade, a Philadelphia Inquirer article mentioned that Rowand remained a favorite of White Sox management.  If they can’t trade for him, there’s a chance they sign him as a free agent after the season.  Center field and left field are definitely holes for Chicago this season, but I don’t expect the Sox to rely on Erstad/Sweeney/Anderson/Podsednik all year long.

Given that a Rowand for Scott Linebrink trade was seriously under consideration, I wonder if the Sox would have to surrender a closing-worthy reliever like Mike MacDougal to seal the deal.

Hampton Injury May Force Trade

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Mike Hampton injured his side this morning and could miss all of April or more.  At the bottom of his article, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman mentions that the injury may prompt the Braves to scour the trade market for a starting pitcher.  Right now the front four are Smoltz, Hudson, James, and Davies.  Lance Cormier could fill in for Hampton if Schuerholz doesn’t find a reasonable trade.

One available starter might be the Cubs’ Wade Miller, assuming he is healthy but does not win the fifth starter job.  I imagine the Phils won’t send Jon Lieber over to the Braves.  Brad Penny’s stock seems down lately, and he could be an option.  And don’t forget that the Braves may have had someone on hand to watch Carl Pavano pitch a few days ago. 

The Tigers might have a small surplus with Zach Miner apparently pushed out of the rotation by Mike Maroth.  The Braves sent Miner to the Tigers for Kyle Farnsworth in July of ’05.  Paul Byrd is another former Brave who might be available.  And I’m sure Shawn Chacon could be had for a decent-sized bag of peanuts.  Plus there’s the Rockies, with Josh Fogg or Byung-Hyun Kim seen as expendable.  Finally, as mentioned in the comments, Mark Redman is still a free agent.

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