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Archives for March 2007

Helton Meets With Rockies’ Owner

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Take it for what it’s worth – Rockies first baseman Todd Helton met with team owner Charlie Monfort on Thursday but declined to comment on the nature of the conversation.  In the opinion of Buster Olney:

"If the Red Sox and Rockies rekindled trade talks, getting a deal done might take about 3.4 seconds, because there was already a structure in place and both sides would have great reason to be motivated to get this done."

And Ken Davidoff of Newsday mentioned today:

"The widespread industry belief is that the Red Sox and Rockies will re-ignite trade discussions involving Todd Helton. The two clubs remain stalled in a game of chicken. Boston doesn’t want to give up any young players with potential, with only expensive veterans Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez on the table, and the Rockies don’t want to hand over Helton in a straight salary dump."

The Red Sox remain in the catbird seat with this potential deal, as Helton is not a strong need for them in any way. They can just sit back and see if the Rockies cave and pay $40-45MM of his contract to get Manny Delcarmen.

Will Royals Trade Mike Sweeney?

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For years, Mike Sweeney may have been the only Royal a casual fan was able to name.  Gil Meche, Alex Gordon, and others are changing that these days.  Sweeney is on his last leg, finally reaching the contract year of his painful five-year, $55MM deal.  (I’m surprised the Royals didn’t do 5/54 with Meche just to block out the Sweeney contract).

Sweeney is earning $11MM this year to DH for the Royals.  This time around, he’s all about yoga and the health vibe remains positive.  It’s all his back.  He’s spent about 30% of the last three seasons on the disabled list.  I’m sure the Royals would love to keep him relatively healthy and effective leading up to the break and send him packing.  There was some talk of the Angels acquiring him in seasons past but it never went too far, mostly because the Royals were asking for too much.

Let’s say Sweeney was a free agent this year instead of next.  I think the most he could command is $4MM guaranteed as someone’s DH. That would make him worth $2MM tops at the deadline, so the Royals would have to eat $9MM.  Might be worth it to allow Billy Butler (BA’s #25 prospect) a half-season trial in the bigs and get a prospect back.  Of course, the more likely scenario is that Butler is granted his chance when Sweeney hits the DL.

Tim’s take: Chance of a midseason trade of Mike Sweeney – 20%.

Alberto Callaspo Drawing Interest

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It was revealed this morning in the Arizona Republic that one of the Diamondbacks’ most asked-about players recently has been infielder Alberto Callaspo.  Callaspo is set to back up at second, short, and third this year for the big club.  Josh Byrnes stole him a year ago for a mere Jason Bulger.

Callaspo is notoriously hard to strike out – he whiffed in only 6% of his ABs in Triple A last year en route to a .337 average.  His Major League equivalent came to .280/.337/.395 in 2006, so yes, he could start for many teams.  Baseball America doesn’t go in-depth about his defense, saying just that he can "play anywhere on the field."  They liked him enough to rate him the 82nd best prospect in the game and fourth best D’Back.

A quick aside to take a fantasy point of view – without power or stolen bases, Callaspo’s value will be limited to his batting average and runs scored.  Those in keeper leagues can take note.  He’ll probably get those runs as someone’s #2 hitter one day.

Callaspo was careful when asked if he’d welcome a trade to become a full-timer.  The Diamondbacks will probably make every effort to keep him; his development may make Orlando Hudson expendable.

A-Rod Not Headed To Cubs

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I spent a good amount of time speculating on possible new teams for Alex Rodriguez in 2008, especially the Cubs.  I even assigned the Cubs’ chances at 15%.  However, Rodriguez was fairly frank yesterday about that idea:

"Whoever writes that couldn’t be more wrong."

He loves the American League, the Yankees, and the nonstop media buzz.  I do think Chicago is a top below New York and Boston for media insanity.  We’ve got just two major newspapers here, and only Jay Mariotti can be counted on for something offensive on a regular basis.

Meanwhile, David Wright professed his willingness to move off third base if the Mets could acquire Rodriguez.  The only alternative for Wright in ’08 would be left field, followed by first base after that.

Florida Teams Talking Trade?

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Here’s a rumor I missed from Jayson Stark’s column on Friday.  Stark notes:

"Despite talk of the Marlins and Devil Rays reviving their long-rumored deal involving Rocco Baldelli, Florida actually appears to be more focused on the younger (and cheaper) B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes as center field possibilities."

That makes sense, but what would Florida give up at this point?  Scott Olsen has to be off-limits.  Josh Johnson is hurting.  Anibal Sanchez’s shoulder inflammation has died down, but he’s still a risk.  Ricky Nolasco might be reasonable, though it would chip away at the team’s strength.  Nolasco for Dukes seems fair.  Nolasco has maybe a 20% chance at becoming a star, while Dukes hovers around 40-50% (based on BP’s Stars and Scrubs charts).  Dukes’s off the field stuff would even out the trade.

Meanwhile, Peter Gammons wrote on February 28th:

"[The Marlins] are not trading any of their good young pitchers to fill center field. They know every good team has flaws, and it’s a lot more difficult to get by with a pitching hole than with a center fielder like Eric Reed who, at worst, runs down balls."

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus mentions another lower-cost possibility for Florida – Cory Sullivan of Colorado.

2007 Minnesota Twins

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Next up we have the Twins, who have an uphill battle in a tough division.

Terry Ryan’s contract obligations:

C – Joe Mauer – $3.75MM
C – Mike Redmond – $0.95MM
1B – Justin Morneau – $4.5MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $5.75MM
SS – Jason Bartlett – $0.38MM
3B – Nick Punto – $1.8MM
IF – Jeff Cirillo – $1.5MM + incentives
IF – Luis Rodriguez – $0.38MM
LF – Rondell White – $2.5MM
CF – Torii Hunter – $12MM
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $3.575MM
OF – Lew Ford – $0.985MM
DH – Jason Kubel – $0.38MM

SP – Johan Santana – $12MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $4MM
SP – Ramon Ortiz – $3.1MM
SP – Sidney Ponson – $1MM + incentives
SP – Boof Bonser – $0.38MM

RP – Joe Nathan – $5.25MM
RP – Juan Rincon – $2MM
RP – Dennys Reyes – $1MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $0.5MM
RP – Pat Neshek – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $0.38MM
RP – J.D. Durbin – $0.38MM

They have about $69MM worth of players on this projected 25-man roster, up about $5MM from last year’s Opening Day payroll.

I think the offense will probably be about average, with a chance to be a touch better if Kubel comes through.  I don’t have big concerns about Mauer and Morneau dropping off.  They’re not getting adequate production at power positions like 3B, LF, or DH though.

If you’re going to beat the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox with an average offense, you’ll need above average starting pitching and defense.  As presently constructed, the Twins don’t have this.  Teams like the Indians and White Sox will knock the non-Santana starters around.  My off-the-cuff review says the defense is decent but not spectacular.

The ridiculous part is that the Twins are again going with veteran crap instead of their kids, and it will cost them wins again.  Said Aaron Gleeman:

"It’s possible that the rotation at Triple-A Rochester will include Garza, Baker, Perkins, and Slowey, which has a good chance of being a better foursome that the non-Santana starters the Twins leave spring training with."

I don’t get this. The games in April and May count, right?

The bullpen can at least make up for the rotation’s misgivings.  It looks to be quite strong again.  I went with Guerrier and Durbin for the last two spots at the advice of Seth Stohs.  Seth mentions that Durbin is out of options, increasing the chances the Twins carry him.  He also notes that the team could go with 11 pitchers.

If Kubel breaks out, the rotation turns over quickly, and the Twins trade for Adam Dunn at the deadline, the could win the division.  More likely to me is that they’re out of struggling to stay in contention in July and are faced with trading Torii Hunter.

Healthy Larry Bigbie as Trade Bait

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The biggest story so far out of Dodgers’ Spring Training is the resurgence of Larry Bigbie. In two and a half games, Bigbie is 5-5 with 6 RBIs and two HRs (three including an intra-squad game). While the sampling size is extremely miniscule, it’s enough to show that he’s healthy and draw interest from scouts in the stands.

Bigbie, a former first-round draft pick for Baltimore, signed a minor-league contract early in February which includes an opt-out clause if the Dodgers keep him in the minors. Unless Marlon Anderson’s elbow injury creates a hole for Bigbie on the opening day roster, he could become trade bait for any club looking for a left-handed OF bat off the bench.

By Jacob Burch

Looking For A Comment Moderator

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A common refrain in my recent survey was the need for some moderation of the comments here at MLBTradeRumors.com.  No one is interested in childish or profane comments.

My policy has typically been one of minimal censorship, so this is new for me.  I do see the need at this point.  Back in the day, I didn’t even require logging in – it was ten times worse under that structure but I fought logging in for a while anyway.

Drop me a line at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com if you would like to be the comment moderator.  I’m just looking for one person who can use good judgment but not over-censor things.  You would have to read every comment.  You would then have power to delete comments as well as ban people if necessary.  If this interests you please email me and let me know why you’d be the best choice.  Thanks. 

Howard Looking For Pujols Money?

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Jim Thome’s contract forced the Phillies to keep Ryan Howard in the minors after he had proven he was ready for the big leagues.  The situation is currently paying off, as they are capturing Howard’s peak seasons very cheaply. 

Yesterday they handed the zero-leverage Howard a record-tying contract, and he does not sound happy.  If you read between the lines of his comments, it’s obvious he feels he deserved more money.  Howard’s rejection of a one-year deal for more than $900K (as opposed to the renewal sans incentives he received) sends a bitter message.  Randy Miller, unlike some of the other Philly papers, snagged a more direct quote:

"Go ask them," Howard blurted out in a raised voice. "They’re the ones with all the money." 

Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer notes that Howard is probably looking to exceed the seven-year, $100MM deal Albert Pujols has (which is a bargain for him).  Howard’s agent Casey Close told Baseball America they expect to surpass Chase Utley’s 7/85 contract if they go long-term.

Howard is an offensive superstar, no doubt, but there seems to be an unjustified sense of entitlement here.  Whether it’s driven by his agent or Howard is uncertain, but agents work for players.  Players with 1.5 seasons in the bigs have to pay their dues; the reward is being overpaid upon reaching free agency.  My gut says Howard will not sign a long-term deal or be a Phillie five years from now.

That’s not to say the Phillies shouldn’t consider locking him up despite the fact that Howard turned 27 last November.  They just have to be careful about projecting the 2014 performance of a player whose top comparables are Mo Vaughn (large decline at age 31, out of baseball at 35) and Travis Hafner (a DH).  Howard can become a free agent after the 2011 season, when he’s 31.

One final thought: I think the Phillies should’ve renewed Howard at $1.5-2MM; it would’ve sent him and the public a much better message about getting a long-term deal done.  $900K might tie a record, but only if you ignore inflation.  Jim Salisbury agrees, saying even another $100K would’ve made a symbolic difference.

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