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Archives for March 2007

Lieber Showcase Goes Well

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One of the most likely players to be traded this spring is 37 year-old starter Jon Lieber.  He tossed a couple of scoreless frames yesterday in front of plenty of scouts.  Liebs makes $7.5MM in the last year of his deal.  If he can come up with 180 innings of 4.50 ball, he’s worth it as a fourth starter.  Were I the Phillies, I would not be in any rush to make a deal.  Use Adam Eaton out of the pen, sit on the surplus and enjoy it.  How many teams keep all five of their starters healthy the entire year?

A Lieber trade does appear inevitable though.  Aside from the Blue Jays, who else might be interested?  How about the Astros?  They’ve got a couple of decent relievers and the need for a solid starter.  The Rangers could get involved if Eric Gagne is healthy.  And the Twins might be a decent fit as well.

2007 New York Mets

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The Mets are featured today in our team outlooks.  You can click here to see past outlooks.

Omar Minaya’s contract obligations:

C – Paul LoDuca – $6.5MM
C – Ramon Castro – $0.85MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $14.5MM – $1.75MM from FLA = $12.75MM
2B – Jose Valentin – $3.8MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $2.5MM
3B – David Wright – $1MM
IF – Julio Franco – $1.1MM
IF – Damion Easley – $0.85MM
LF – Moises Alou – $7.5MM
CF – Carlos Beltran – $12MM
RF – Shawn Green – $9.45MM – 6.45MM from ARI = 3.05MM
OF – Endy Chavez – $1.725MM
OF – David Newhan – $0.575MM

SP – Tom Glavine – $7.5MM
SP – Orlando Hernandez – $4.5MM $0.5MM bonus = $5MM + incentives
SP – Oliver Perez – $2.325MM + incentives
SP – Chan Ho Park – $0.6MM + incentives
SP – John Maine – $0.38MM

RP – Billy Wagner – $10.5MM
RP – Scott Schoeneweis – $3.6MM
RP – Jorge Sosa – $1.25MM
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $0.85MM + incentives
RP – Aaron Heilman – $0.38MM
RP – Ambiorix Burgos – $0.38MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $0.38MM

Injured/Suspended/Minors:

SP – Pedro Martinez – $14MM (could return from rotator cuff surgery in July)
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.65MM
SP – Aaron Sele – $1MM + incentives
SP – Alay Soler – $0.93MM
RP – Guillermo Mota – $1.8MM – $0.55MM from steroid suspension = $1.25MM
RP – Dave Williams – $1.25MM (out til June from neck surgery)
RP – Jon Adkins – $0.38MM
RP – Juan Padilla – $0.38MM
OF – Ben Johnson – $0.38MM
OF – Lastings Milledge – $0.38MM

That’s my take, with the fifth outfielder job and perhaps last bullpen spot unsettled.  The payroll seems to be about $110MM, not terribly different than last year.

The Mets were third in runs scored in 2006, and that should continue.  Moises Alou replacing Cliff Floyd is a nice touch.

The defense looks pretty good overall, with only Delgado and Alou as the obvious weak spots at their offense-minded positions.

Much ado has been made about the Mets’ rotation, which appears to lack a "#1" starter.  I don’t see this as a big regular season problem given a strong offense and bullpen.  Rather than throw down a billion dollars on Barry Zito, Omar Minaya spread his risk among many starters.  He’s got low-upside Sele types but also the potential of Pelfrey and Perez.  If nothing’s working when July approaches, Lastings Milledge could make excellent trade bait.  Anything Pedro gives them late in the summer is gravy.

As I mentioned earlier, the bullpen looks deep. Even with Sanchez a question mark, the Mets will get through the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.  They’d love for Burgos to step in and be a lights out seventh inning option, and a step forward in control plus the National League could get his ERA under 4.

Right now I have a hard time picking the Mets or Phillies to win the NL East.  The Phils should have a better rotation and comparable offense.

Phils Covet Rios

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Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi was pretty clear on his intentions: "we’re not trading Rios."  But what else is he going to say?  Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail has a source that says despite that declaration, Pat Gillick still wants him for the Phillies.

Blair says the Jays won’t trade Rios unless they’re getting Brett Myers or Cole Hamels in return. We’ll label that as educated speculation on Blair’s part.  Such a trade would make about as much sense as using Myers as closer.   

The much talked-about scenario involves the Phils somehow wresting Rios from the Jays without giving up either frontline starter, and then shipping Aaron Rowand to San Diego for Scott Linebrink.  I’m all for speculation, but the Jays know what they’ve got in Rios.  He doesn’t get traded if Jon Lieber is the centerpiece.

Interest In Pavano

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Yesterday I mentioned that Carl Pavano had his first healthy effort this spring, a major step towards a trade.  The Cards, Rockies, and Mariners have expressed interest in the past.

Today, a George King report indicates some other possible suitors.  King mentions that scouts from the Braves, Mets, and White Sox attended the game at which Pavano pitched.  Whether they were there to watch him is an open question, but it is reasonable.

A cross-town trade would be particularly interesting, although the Mets are not short on Pavano-like options.

Jason Hirsh Interview

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Rockies starter Jason Hirsh was recently ranked the 42nd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Recently, he was kind enough to answer some questions for MLB Trade Rumors via email.  Jason and his brother Matt maintain a website called Brothers In Arms; check it out.

It appears that you were nearly traded to the White Sox in early December for Jon Garland.  Did that possibility take you by surprise?  What are your feelings on the city of Chicago?

I had heard about the ChiSox rumor and then it was finally in USA today and I really didn't think anything of it.  I called my agent and asked him if he had heard anything and he said no, it was just a bunch of talk from the winter meetings that someone from the media got hold of and ran with it.  I thought Chicago would have been cool, everyone I know says the town is awesome and I know the fans are very loyal.

Did the near-White Sox trade give you a chance to prepare mentally for the eventual deal to Colorado about a week later?

I took the ChiSox deal with a grain of salt so I was completely blindsided by the deal to Colorado.  I don't think anything could have mentally prepared me for that bombshell when it was dropped on me.

The Rockies have an "organization guided by Christianity" (see article here).  Is this drastically different than your past clubhouses?  Do you feel comfortable in this environment as a member of the Jewish faith?   

Being in the clubhouse now for the last few weeks here in Spring Training I have never felt more comfortable around a group of guys in my professional career.  Everyone is very accepting of me and they are all friendly, even the seasoned vets.  I feel as though I've been with this organization my whole career so its definitely comforting to know that everyone gets along even though some of us come from different backgrounds.

Colorado has more starting pitching depth than ever…would you be disappointed not to make the starting rotation right away?  Are you comfortable in the bullpen?

I think I would be disappointed for sure if I didnt make the rotation out of Spring Training.  I was told when the trade went down that I was going to be a vital part of this rotation this year and then they went out and signed like 4 more starting pitchers.  I understand that they are trying to create competition and get the most bang for their buck, but I think that I can outdo them all and win a spot in this rotation.  I'm not very comfortable in the bullpen, I've  been raised as a starter my whole life/career so coming from the pen is not my cup of tea so to speak.  I have a difficult time getting loose and getting into the mindframe of a reliever, but if the pen is where I'm destined to go then so be it, but I believe I'm better suited for starting.

How do you feel about your changeup these days?  Do you have confidence to throw it at any time?

Personally I feel like my changeup is my second best pitch right now behind my fastball.  My confidence in it has swooned the last two years.  I've really got a feel for it and I'm definitely not afraid to throw it in any count to any hitter.

Do you think you'll ever get a chance to pitch against your brother Matt?

I hope that at some point down the line in my career that both Matt and I will have the opportunity to pitch against each other, but I know he still has a lot of development ahead of him, but I know he'll make it!

Fantasy Baseball – The Undrafted

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Take a look at some nifty draft dodgers over at RotoAuthority.  By that I mean players outside of Mock Draft Central’s Top 300 for a 12 team mixed league.

Unrelated note – I was able to increase the number of Recent Posts seen in the sidebar from 10 to 15.  Is 15 a good amount?  I can change it easily.

Also, coming tomorrow morning: Rockies starter Jason Hirsh answered some questions for MLBTR from camp.

First Step Toward Pavano Trade

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As George King writes, Carl Pavano had the chance today to show all the pitching-starved teams in baseball that he’s finally healthy.  If the Yanks will swallow $15MM or so of Pavano’s $23MM over the next two seasons, they can clear a spot for Phil Hughes and pick up a prospect.

Pavano didn’t embarrass himself or get injured facing the tough Phillies lineup this afternoon.  He faced off with Cole Hamels, allowing one run in two innings of work.  The Cardinals and Rockies have shown interest in the past, though the Rockies don’t need him with their current depth.

Tim’s take: Chance of Pavano staying healthy and getting traded by July – 40%.

A Little Help: Rangers

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More rumors, news, and analysis is always a good thing, and I really like the early work of Jacob Burch as our Dodgers correspondent.  If I do this right we can really expand the quality content at MLBTradeRumors.com over the next couple of months.  Today I’m looking for someone to represent the Texas Rangers.

What am I looking for in this person?

  • Solid writing skills and a style that fits with MLBTradeRumors.  Basically, I’ll know it when I see it.  I’m looking for the same type of analysis you see here every day.
  • Someone who can post up-to-the-minute Rangers rumors as they surface.  I want a person who follows the Rangers religiously and will have every source (traditional newspapers, high quality blogs, radio) covered.  Would make sense to have all the pertinent websites on an RSS reader.  You should be near a computer most times and able to hop on and write a post if something happens.
  • While this person is probably a Rangers fan, objective analysis is preferred.  Additionally it would be nice to provide the local vibe/sentiment that people might otherwise not know about.  That might sound contradictory but I don’t think it is.
  • The benefit to you: a decent-sized audience and a chance to do a little sportswriting.  It could be a nice resume-builder and I would be happy to serve as a reference for you.  And I will give you some insight on how I do what I do, for what that’s worth.
  • Email me at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com if this interests you and explain why you’re the best candidate.  I’ll choose one person and unfortunately won’t be able to reply to all.  A sample post of a rumor/signing (whether fake or true) might help make your case.  Note: long-winded posts are not my style! Brevity is a plus – I like 3-4 paragraph posts.

NOTE: Please don’t contact me about doing this for other teams.  I just want a Rangers person at the moment.

Ms Could Sign Felix Long-Term

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I mentioned yesterday that Felix Hernandez had been hoping for a long-term deal rather than the renewal he received.  Apparently the Mariners do not consider it too early to talk – the Tacoma News Tribune reports that the Mariners are "deep in negotiations on a long-term deal" with Felix’s agent.

Both sides should be happy with four years and $10MM guaranteed, with a fifth year option.  The Ms should pounce if Felix’s agent is anywhere in this ballpark.

I’ve projected a 3.39 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for Hernandez in my 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Guide.

Tribe Has Decisions To Make

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Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has a well thought out column up today regarding the possible market value of Jake Westbrook, Travis Hafner, and C.C. Sabathia.  Westbrook would hit free agency after this season; the other two after ’08.

His take on Westbrook: four or five years at $12.5MM annually.  Westbrook’s agent has yet to speak with Mark Shapiro.  Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon-Journal weighs in at five years and $15MM annually.

You can bet Travis Hafner wouldn’t be underrated on the open market, even as a DH.  Pronk could hit 50 HR this year.  Hoynes thinks it would require five or six years at $12-17MM annually for him.  I think he would get at least $15MM for the AAV.  Teams that might need a DH in 2009: Baltimore, Toronto, L.A., Seattle, and Texas (where it all began).  Of the three, Hafner probably makes the least sense for Cleveland to sign long-term. Ocker sees him getting 100/6.

Sabathia is another guy whose best season could be 2007.  Carlos Zambrano’s deal, whether reached now or after the ’07 season, could serve as a framework.  Sure, Sabathia is heavy, but he’s also young and very good.  I’m thinking five years, $75MM.  Ocker counters with $135MM over seven seasons.

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