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Archives for June 2007

Pirates Inquire On Saltalamacchia

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According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have inquired regarding the availability of Braves catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. 

Kovacevic says the Braves want frontline pitching for Salty (ie, Mark Buehrle).  This makes a deal unlikely for the Bucs.  What would John Schuerholz want from the Pirates?  I can’t see how it would get done without Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelanny included.  A trade of either would be shocking.  Kovacevic mentions that multiple teams have an eye on Zach Duke, but he’s not comparable to the aforementioned pair.

Red Sox Emerge As Top Buehrle Suitor

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Here’s something we didn’t see coming.  According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Red Sox have emerged as the frontrunner for southpaw Mark Buehrle.  They’ve jumped ahead of the Braves and Mets on the strength of their farm system. 

Cowley says talks between Buehrle and the White Sox regarding an extension are basically dead.  Now Boston has taken center stage, even sending assistant GM Allard Baird to watch Buehrle’s last start (a typical fine effort from him). 

Cowley believes a major motivation for the Red Sox is keeping Buehrle away from the Yankees.  The Red Sox would apparently give him a five year extension.  Possible targets for Kenny Williams: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie.  In my opinion: two of those guys, done deal.  Buchholz is arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors, and would make White Sox fans forget about Buehrle fairly quickly. 

Williams plans to sit back and listen to all offers first, of course.  According to Cowley, at least seven teams have made serious contact.

Mark Teixeira Trade Rumors

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Kat O’Brien of Newsday has the latest Mark Teixeira trade rumors for our perusal.  According to O’Brien, the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Angels, and Braves as said to be interested in the first baseman.

We’ve seen the Angels connected to Teixeira plenty of times, and I still don’t get it.  Why would the Angels move Casey Kotchman, by all accounts a fine fielder, off first base?  The rumors persist, but this does not seem like a fit for the Halos.  They need a third baseman.

With the Yanks, I imagine the stumbling block remains finding a package good enough for Jon Daniels without including Phil Hughes.  I see this as a long shot, mainly because the Red Sox are not rumored to be after Teixeira.  And I just demonstrated why I don’t think the Angels will legitimately chase him.  So the Yankees wouldn’t be in competition with an AL contender for Teixeira (unless the Tigers get involved).  There is no pressing need to give up the farm, even the non-Hughes part of the farm.

The Braves are a dark horse; I think the Dodgers and Orioles will go head to head for Teixeira.  O’Brien mentions that at least eight or nine teams have expressed at least casual interest, so there are a few unknowns here.  If I had to guess, I’d say Teixeira becomes a Dodger or else stays put this summer.

Mailbag: Musical Chairs In Center Field

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Feel free to hit up the mailbag at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.

Rusty from San Diego writes:

Given the large list of potential free agent CFs for 2008, which teams do you think are likely to replace from within the organization, which ones are likely to retain their current guy with a new deal, and which are likely to sign one of the many free agents? Who is going to make the biggest splash in the CF market? Who is going to make the biggest mistake?

Interesting question.  First, a review of available players who can play center:

Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Eric Byrnes
Corey Patterson
Milton Bradley
Aaron Rowand
Mike Cameron
Kenny Lofton

At the least, we have to figure out what the Mariners, Braves, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, Padres, and Rangers will do in center field.  Other teams that could acquire a CF: Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, and Pirates.  About 9 CFs (if you count Byrnes and Patterson), anywhere from 7-13 teams with a possible need.  A lot of different combinations.

Mariners – Bring up Adam Jones to play center field; let Ichiro go.  Jones, hitting .318/.388/.594 in Triple A before his 22nd birthday, is the real deal.  The Ms could always retain Ichiro and use him in right field, but I see them as more likely to invest in pitching this offseason as a reaction to their current staff. 

Braves – Sign Cameron, let Andruw go.  This has been speculated by Ken Rosenthal and others, and it makes perfect sense to me.  For the Braves’ sake, hopefully a two-year contract.

Twins – Sign Lofton, let Hunter go.  The first part is just a guess, but the Twins are never big spenders and I don’t see anyone who can step up from within.  Bradley could be another option here.  The Twins are still in a pennant race, so they can’t afford to trade Hunter for a prospect-type CF.

Orioles – Sign Andruw Jones, let Patterson go.  Could Andruw be the next face of the franchise?  Miguel Tejada may be on his way out, and acquiring/signing Mark Teixeira is no small task.  If the O’s get Matt Wieters signed, negotiating with Boras on a huge deal like Andruw’s seems more possible.  Plus, Andy MacPhail and the Cubs have never had issues with Boras.  I’ll call this one the biggest mistake.     

Phillies – Let Rowand go, fill internally.  The Phils have two solid center field candidates in Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino, so I think Rowand is a goner.

Padres – Sign Rowand, let Cameron go.  Just a guess here, I have to fit the pieces somehow.  We know the Padres have some interest in Rowand, and they seem unlikely to pony up for one of the Big Three.

Rangers – Sign Hunter, let Lofton go.  Will Jon Daniels use 2008 as a rebuilding year?  It seems unlikely to me, given some of the large unmovable contracts on the roster.  Why not add another in Hunter?  Vernon Wells is no longer an option, and the Rangers don’t have anyone in the pipeline.  Andruw could certainly make sense here too.

Red Sox – Continue using Crisp, promote Jacoby Ellsbury early in the season.  I think the pressure of being Boston’s Opening Day CF could be too much for Ellsbury, but waiting a month or two could alleviate the pressure.  That’s about the most the Sox could take of Crisp.  Slight chance of a stopgap insurance plan like Bradley or Lofton.

Yankees – Stick with Damon.  Not ideal, but the Yanks are locked in with Damon and may have much more pressing needs to fill this winter.

White Sox – Sign Ichiro.  This just seems right.  It would help bring some attention back to the South Side following what could be a very ugly second half.  Any kind of fire sale is going to leave fans bitter, and making a splash with Ichiro could help ease the pain of losing Mark Buehrle.  Of course, Rowand remains a strong option as well.  I’ll call this one the biggest splash.

Nationals – Sign Patterson.  Toolsy, Bowden’s type (assuming Bowden is still around).  My guess is that C-Patt’s awful ’07 coupled with the surplus of available CFs leaves him with a weak Ron Belliard type deal.  As a Boras client, he’ll probably be encouraging to sign for only one year as an attempt to re-establish value.

Marlins – Fill position without free agency.  It’s been a while since the Fish had a decent, regular CF.  I predict that by the end of this season, they’ll acquire a young player.  Could be Elijah Dukes, could be Matt Kemp via a Dontrelle Willis trade, who knows.

Pirates – I was going to conveniently slide Eric Byrnes in here, but that doesn’t make sense.  Byrnes is set to snag a three-year deal.  Let’s sidestep him by saying he signs on somewhere to play a corner position.  The Bucs will perhaps employ some sort of stopgap and hope Andrew McCutchen is ready by All-Star break ’08 or even sooner.  The kid needs to figure out Double A first though.  He’s only 20.

Weigh in below!  How would you sort this thing out?

Royals’ Bradley Trade Cancelled

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UPDATE: The trade of Bradley to the Royals has already fallen through.  Turns out Bradley had an oblique injury that neither team was aware of.  Maybe the GMs can still work something out, since Bradley could’ve been expected to have an oblique injury within a week or two anyway.

According to ESPN, the Royals have acquired Milton Bradley from the A’s for reliever Leo Nunez.  It’s a surprising move for Kansas City.

Nunez is a 23 year-old righty reliever.  He’s been compared to Julian Tavarez.  He’s got a decent hitter but his secondary pitches need work.  Nunez has been knocked around in 67 big league innings.  He’s pitching well in Double A this year but A) he probably belongs in Triple A and B) his strikeout rate is poor.

Bradley will presumably be the Royals’ regular left fielder, at least until he finds his way back to the DL.  If Dayton Moore doesn’t spin him off for something better than Nunez before the deadline, I don’t get the move.

Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up.  A summary appears below.

  • Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options.  That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
  • The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle.  Strictly a rental.  That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
  • The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira.  Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
  • Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks.  They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day.  The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters.  If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump.  Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
  • Barry Bonds’s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening.  Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate.  Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
  • Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley. 
  • Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him.  Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
  • Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere.  Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
  • The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth.  Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned.  The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons. 

Elijah Dukes Demoted

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We knew something was coming…the Devil Rays demoted outfielder Elijah Dukes today and also placed him on the temporary inactive list (ie, no pay).

A trade or release is forthcoming.  According to the Tampa Tribune, the Rays spent yesterday exploring potential deals.  You’d think with millions of dollars hanging in the balance, Dukes would just relax and focus on baseball with his new team.

Hafner Distracted By Contract Situation?

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Jim Ingraham of The Morning Journal out of Cleveland offers some thoughts on Travis Hafner’s season-long slump.  Pronk is hitting .257/.401/.432 on the season.  He’s walking more than ever, but the .432 SLG is a far cry from his usual .600 mark.

Ingraham believes Hafner has been distracted this year, with his contract situation weighing on his mind.  According to Ingraham’s sources, Hafner was either offered 5/70 or 4/60 from the Indians in the early weeks of the season.  Was he offended by the offer? 

Even as a DH, Hafner should be worth around $18-19MM a year over the next few seasons (according to Baseball Prospectus).  Only in 2010 is he expected to drop into the $13MM range.  So Hafner has a right to expect significantly more than $14-15MM annually, even if he’s offense-only.  The Tribe may be using David Ortiz’s 4/52 contract as a benchmark, but that was signed before the 2006 season.   

According to BP, Hafner’s top comparable is Willie McCovey.  Decline definitely set in for McCovey around his age 33 season.  Boog Powell is also high on the list; he also dropped off in his early 30s.  Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado, Mo Vaughn…this is why the Indians are reluctant to pay top dollar long-term for a player of Hafner’s type.

Hafner is incredibly underpaid at $3.75MM this season and $4.75MM in 2008.  He signed the deal in March of 2005, probably looking to set himself up for life with only one full season in the books.  You can’t blame him for signing, but it has to feel a little unfair right now.  Unfortunately the best business decision for the Tribe might be to just let him play out his contract. 

Cardinals Acquire Mike Maroth

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals have traded for Tigers lefty Mike Maroth.  Maroth, a 30 year-old southpaw, is most famous for his 21 loss season in 2003.

Maroth has always been hittable, but his normally fine control has been off this year.  He seems to be healthy following surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow over a year ago.  Maroth makes $2.95MM this year and won’t be a free agent until after 2008.  It’s a smart move by Walt Jocketty, who, by the way, could be looking to leave the Cardinals after this season or 2008.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the deal was finalized today and it’s for a player to be named later.

What About Other White Sox Pitchers?

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A couple of Chicago newspapers raised a logical possibility today: what if the impending White Sox fire sale extends beyond those who will become free agents?  Specifically, the Sox have three veteran starting pitchers under contract and any of them could be traded. 

Take Javier Vazquez.  He’s a fine addition to any team looking for a complementary, solid, healthy pitcher.  Vazquez is signed through 2010 at $11.5MM annually, about the market rate.  He’ll turn 31 soon, and has no health issues.  His strikeout rate is strong, his walk rate low.  Granted he’s HR prone and his ERA never quite seems to match his other stats, but he’s plenty valuable.

There’s Jon Garland, who’s only 27 and has quietly posted a 3.51 ERA.  I’m quite skeptical, because his strikeout rate is at a career low but his hit rate is too.  That’s not sustainable.  Nonetheless, he can really eat up innings and has been healthy for years aside from minor concerns this spring.  Garland makes $10MM this year and $12MM in ’08.   

Jose Contreras is the riskiest White Sox pitcher.  Contreras earns $9MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and $10MM in ’09.  His control this year has been his worst since ’04, and his strikeout rate is a career worst.  He’s 35 and looks like he’s 40.  He is compensating for his declining skills by getting more groundballs. 

Any of these three could be available in the coming weeks.  Williams might find that he can get much better prospects in return for pitchers who will not walk after 2007.  Imagine what he could get if he were to package two of them.  That would be almost unprecedented.

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