Atkins May Be Shopped For Pitching
Let’s take a look at Rockies first/third baseman Garrett Atkins. Atkins turns 29 in December and is disappointed by his .287/.331/.451 line in 632 plate appearances this year. His hitting away from Coors has been worrisome – .245/.305/.417 in 600 ABs the past two seasons.
The Rockies haven’t signed Atkins to a long-term deal, so he faces a possible $6.5-7MM arbitration reward for ’09. He’s under team control through 2010. Troy E. Renck writes of the "growing possibility" of a trade, with the Rockies aiming for frontline starting pitching.
Plenty of teams will be looking for corner infield help this winter – possibilities include the Giants, Yankees, White Sox, Twins, Indians, A’s, and Dodgers. But what if that road line holds up, and Atkins is basically a more expensive Kevin Millar?
Yanks To Let Abreu, Giambi Leave?
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post:
The general consensus appears that free agents Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi will be allowed to leave and that fits a logic: The Yanks are trying to get younger, trying to thin the herd of aging corner outfield/first base/DH types and trying to reduce the payroll where possible.
The Yanks would save more than $25MM by letting the pair leave. But as Sherman notes, they’d lose a couple of their top OBP guys. They’d also face a weak free agent market for first basemen, aside from Mark Teixeira. In the outfield, Xavier Nady could take over in right. Interesting note from Ken Davidoff – he says Giambi’s legacy to the Yankees may be his generosity toward the support staff.
Beyond Teixeira, the Yankees could attempt to trade for Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, or Adam LaRoche. As far as team control, Howard and Fielder have three years, LaRoche one. It’s tough to see the Phillies or Brewers making a deal without Phil Hughes. A couple of other possible trade candidates include Garrett Atkins, Lyle Overbay, Nick Johnson, and Todd Helton.
The Adam LaRoche Situation
Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche will be arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, and can expect to earn $7MM or so in 2009.
LaRoche has not been bad with the Pirates – .272/.345/.458 in ’07, .269/.340/.480 this year. The problem: he was useless in April both years, continuing a career trend. His lines look much better without April included – .296/.361/.492 in ’07 and .291/.358/.535 this year. That is the kind of production the Pirates expected when they traded Mike Gonzalez for him in January of ’07.
Clearly LaRoche has value, so non-tendering him is out of the question. In April of this year, the Pirates reached a possibly insurmountable impasse in multiyear extension talks with LaRoche. With the Pirates in a clear rebuilding phase, trading him this winter makes sense. Teams that could be in the market for a first baseman: the Yankees, Indians, Angels, A’s, Mariners, and Giants. LaRoche could be Plan B for GMs not willing to pony up the young players needed to acquire Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. Still, the Pirates do not have payroll problems and will not trade LaRoche just to unload salary.
Angels Intend To Hold Line On Payroll
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, Angels owner Arte Moreno has no intention of increasing 2009 payroll significantly beyond the current $123MM. Playoff success could add some flexibility, but not enough to retain all of the team’s free agents.
Interestingly, Moreno’s comments did not dispel the C.C. Sabathia speculation:
"We always try to stay very focused on pitching, and right now we think we have a solid one through four. But do you go out and get a No. 1, or do you look for a 2, 3 or 4? We have a wish list of things we think will improve the team. But what you go after could affect your flexibility."
DiGiovanna says the Angels should have about $87MM committed before dealing with free agents. So, the Angels might have around $38MM to spend.
There are scenarios where the Angels could sign two of the big three: Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, and C.C. Sabathia. Their best bet would probably be Tex and Sabathia. The Angels will have to be careful not to backload too heavily, since they’ll need to spend big bucks to extend Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey beyond 2009.
Meanwhile, it seems possible free agents such as Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Juan Rivera, and Darren Oliver move on.
Padres To Non-Tender Bard
According to MLB.com’s Corey Brock, the Padres plan to non-tender catcher Josh Bard this winter. They’ll use Nick Hundley as the starting catcher in ’09, and may add a veteran backup like Brad Ausmus.
Bard is out for the year with a strained triceps. He hit .202/.279/.270 in 198 plate appearances, also dealing with an ankle injury. The Padres would’ve had to pay him at least $1.79MM in ’09. It’s not a bad situation for Bard, though – he’ll reach free agency without putting in six years of service. He’ll be 30 in March as will join a weak free agent market for catchers. Small sample size, but in his last healthy season (2007) Bard hit .330/.386/.456 away from PETCO.
With Bard out of the picture, the Padres have $42.4MM committed for ’09 plus arbitration raises to Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Heath Bell, and Clay Hensley. It seems possible the Padres could exercise Brian Giles‘ option and re-sign Trevor Hoffman without going too far past a $50MM payroll. Giles is included in the $42.4MM figure.
Epstein Agrees To Extension
WEDNESDAY: Amalie Benjamin sifts through the murky statements regarding the Epstein negotiations. Regardless, it looks like he’s staying.
TUESDAY: According to Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has agreed to a contract extension. Some details still need to be hammered out though.
Epstein’s moves since winning the World Series last year:
- Re-signed Mike Lowell, Curt Schilling, and Mike Timlin.
- Exercised options on Julian Tavarez and Tim Wakefield.
- Offered arbitration to Eric Gagne; selected Bryan Price with compensation pick.
- June draft picks also included Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland.
- Acquired David Aardsma.
- Signed Bartolo Colon and Sean Casey.
- Traded Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss; received Jason Bay.
- Acquired Mark Kotsay and Paul Byrd.
Blue Jays To Retain Barajas, Not Zaun
According to Robert MacLeod of The Globe and Mail, the Blue Jays plan to exercise Rod Barajas‘ option while allowing Gregg Zaun to leave as a free agent.
Barajas has a $2.4MM option with a $500K buyout, so it’s a net cost of $2.1MM. He’s hitting .249/.294/.410 in 377 plate appearances, fluctuating quite a bit month-to-month. Meanwhile Zaun is hitting .222/.332/.344 in 262 PAs while earning $3.75MM. At this point he does not qualify as a Type B free agent, so there’s no point in offering arbitration.
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics
Next up in the Offseason Outlook series, the A’s. Here’s how they might line up in 2009:
C – Kurt Suzuki -$400K
C – Rob Bowen – $410K+
1B – Daric Barton – $400K
2B – Eric Patterson – $400K
SS – Bobby Crosby – $5.25MM
3B – Eric Chavez – $11MM
IF – Jack Hannahan – $400K
IF – Cliff Pennington – $400K
LF – Aaron Cunningham – $400K
CF – Carlos Gonzalez – $400K
RF – Ryan Sweeney – $400K
OF – Rajai Davis – $400K
DH – Jack Cust – $410K+
SP – Justin Duchscherer – $1.2MM+
SP – Greg Smith – $400K
SP – Sean Gallagher – $400K
SP – Dana Eveland – $400K
SP – Dallas Braden – $400K
RP – Huston Street – $3.3MM+
RP – Brad Ziegler – $400K
RP – Joey Devine – $400K
RP – Santiago Casilla – $400K
RP – Andrew Brown – $400K
RP – Jerry Blevins – $400K
RP – Josh Outman – $400K
Other outfielders: Travis Buck – $400K, Chris Denorfia – $400K, Matt Murton – $400K
Other starters: Gio Gonzalez – $400K, Dan Meyer – $400K, Vince Mazzaro – $400K, Trevor Cahill – $400K, Brett Anderson – $400K
The A’s opened the ’08 season with a $48MM payroll, down $31MM from the year before. They have roughly $29MM committed for ’09, plus arbitration raises to Bowen, Cust, Duchscherer, and Street. They’ll surely come in under $40MM, and could trade Duke or Street.
Oakland’s pitching has been strong once again, and their fourth-ranked ERA holds up even after you subtract Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, and Chad Gaudin. Lack of offense is the problem – the A’s are dead last in baseball in OBP, SLG, and runs scored.
Cust and Suzuki made positive contributions offensively; Sweeney was OK. The infield could be an area to upgrade this winter (second base would require a stopgap solution due to the minor league depth). Chavez will figure in if he can come back from shoulder surgery, but he may be incapable of playing third base. The A’s have tons of outfielders, but no real trade surplus. Given Billy Beane’s success developing and finding pitching, that’s the surplus. He could deal Duchscherer or Street or attempt to swap young pitching for young hitting.
The A’s could target third basemen such as Edwin Encarnacion or Kevin Kouzmanoff, though neither player is an offensive monster. Young shortstops are more difficult to find via trade. Dan Uggla could be an interesting target for second or third base. The A’s probably aren’t in the market for a first baseman, though Prince Fielder might be available. That’d make for an amusing story. Mike Jacobs could be a more feasible target.
Shrewd free agent signings might be a better and more likely path – Jason Giambi, Rafael Furcal, and Casey Blake could help. The outfield market is strong, if the A’s don’t mind pushing various youngsters further down the depth chart.
Odds and Ends: Alvarez, Williams, Tazawa
Today’s links…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Great stuff on the Pedro Alvarez situation from Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. Goldstein’s source says the union will claim that the Pirates and MLB engaged in a premeditated conspiracy, perhaps designed to take Scott Boras out of the picture by negotiating past midnight. The article is subscription-only. At $40 a year, BP is well worth it.
- It seems that Type B status is slipping away for Tigers reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Ivan Rodriguez recently fell from A to B, but the Yankees may choose not to offer him arbitration.
- Baseball America’s Jim Callis says Mariners top draft pick Joshua Fields wants $2MM, while the team is holding firm at $1.5MM. Fields is advised by Scott Boras.
- Interesting note from last week…Bernie Williams is training and does not consider himself retired.
- Patrick Newman discusses the Junichi Tazawa situation in-depth. He says NPB’s commissioner plans to meet with Bud Selig. One reason MLB looks extra-appealing to Tazawa: NPB limits draft pick bonuses to $1MM.
- Geoff Baker discusses Jose Guillen.
Holliday On Rockies’ Contract Offer
Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News spoke to Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday regarding the team’s contract offer. Holliday revealed that the Rockies offered four years without a no-trade clause. He is not looking to test the free agent market after the ’09 season, but doesn’t consider the Rockies’ offer close to market value. Holliday knows he could get eight years on the open market, but it seems that six or seven years with a no-trade clause might do the trick for Colorado. That’d still be a discount.
Unless the Rockies drastically change their offer, Holliday is a goner after ’09. That doesn’t mean they can’t hang on to him and let him play out the season. That’s a viable option that would’ve worked for the Twins with Johan Santana, in hindsight. It’s not an ideal offseason to shop Holliday – the free agent market features several big-name sluggers.