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Wolf Open To Astros Return

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Jose de Jesus Ortiz quotes Astros southpaw and Ed Wade favorite Randy Wolf:

A few weeks ago I had a short conversation with Ed and talked about what I thought of it here and if I’d be open to playing here.  Like I’ve said, I think…yes definitely.  The geography doesn’t really matter anymore.  I think first and foremost I want to be on a winning team and have the best possible chance to be where I’ve never been before, which is the playoffs.

It seems this was a consideration for Wade all along when he made the trade for Wolf.  Overall Wolf has a 4.30 ERA in 190.3 innings.  He made all his starts and posted a solid 7.6 K/9.  Wolf averaged 88.8 mph on his heater, showing more velocity than he had in recent years.

With a fair offer, the Astros might be able to sign Wolf before he hits the open market.  He earned $8.5MM this year, hitting all his incentives.  It might take three years and $30-35MM to sign him.  At the least, the Astros can offer Wolf arbitration and snag a draft pick since he’s a Type B free agent.

The Plus/Minus System For Defense

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I am a big fan of John Dewan’s plus/minus system for evaluating defense.  Read how it works – the system is logical and easy to understand, though the numbers require intense labor to compile.

Plus/minus stats for the current year are available at Bill James Online (sign up for $3 a month), and I’ve been tossing them around occasionally here at MLBTR.  I’m sure they’ll continue to come up with regard to this winter’s free agent class.  For instance Mark Ellis rates a +25 at second base, meaning he made 25 more plays than the average second baseman this year.

Free agent plus/minus leaders at each position:

  • First base: Mark Teixeira, +24
  • Second base: Mark Ellis, +25
  • Shortstop: Cesar Izturis, +17
  • Third base: Joe Crede, +13
  • Left field: Jay Payton, +3
  • Center field: Corey Patterson, +8
  • Right field: Brian Giles, +20, Brad Wilkerson, +4

Odds and Ends: Renteria, Francoeur, Pedro

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Today’s links…

Will Yanks Re-Sign Giambi?

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According to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

The Yankees have not ruled out a return from Jason Giambi in 2009, and general manager Brian Cashman has already reached out to Giambi to gauge his interest in playing in New York for another season. Giambi said that Cashman told him he would need to figure out his own situation first.

Giambi is finishing up a seven-year, $120MM contract signed in 2001.  He has a $22MM option for ’09 with a $5MM buyout.  Getting Giambi at one-year, $17MM isn’t that bad, but the Yankees are still expected to take the buyout.  They can probably get him back for less, and Giambi would love to stay.  However, he has his eye on a multiyear deal and the Yankees probably won’t do that.

Giambi, 38 in January, hit .251/.377/.513 in 551 plate appearances.  His defensive numbers at first base grade out poorly, and time will have to be spent at DH.  Possible fits: the Angels or Rangers.  However, the Rangers may focus on pitching even if Milton Bradley departs.  If the Angels lose Mark Teixeira and Garret Anderson, they might have room for Giambi.  They reportedly had interest in Giambi in May of last year.

White Sox Discussing Extension With Kenny Williams

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According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, White Sox GM Kenny Williams is discussing a multiyear extension with owner Jerry Reinsdorf.  It seems his current deal runs through 2009.

Williams has become one of the game’s best GMs.  Not too many folks were picking the Sox for first or second place in the AL Central before the season.  Recent highlights include the acquisitions of Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Alexei Ramirez.  And to be fair, I liked the Nick Swisher deal at the time.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their probable commitments for 2009:

C – Ryan Hanigan – $400K
C – Wilkin Castillo – $400K
1B – Joey Votto – $400K
2B – Brandon Phillips – $4.75MM
SS – Alex Gonzalez – $5.375MM
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $450K+
IF – Andy Phillips – $440K
IF – Jeff Keppinger – $403K
LF – Chris Dickerson – $400K
CF – Ryan Freel – $4MM
RF – Jay Bruce – $400K
OF – Norris Hopper – $403K
OF –

SP – Aaron Harang – $11MM
SP – Bronson Arroyo – $9.5MM
SP – Edinson Volquez – $400K
SP – Johnny Cueto – $400K
SP – Micah Owings – $402K

RP – Francisco Cordero – $12MM
RP – Jared Burton – $400K
RP – Mike Lincoln – $550K+
RP – Bill Bray – $400K
RP – Gary Majewski – $400K+
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $400K
RP – Nick Masset – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle – $1.25MM+

Other commitments: Yonder Alonso – $400K

Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson – $400K, Homer Bailey – $400K, Ramon Ramirez – $400K

The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski.  After that, they’ll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer).  The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.

The Reds had a below-average offense this year, and the losses of Adam Dunn and perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. may make things worse.  On the other hand, the Reds won’t give 1,200 plate appearances to Keppinger, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako again.

Top two positions of concern: shortstop and center field.  After missing all of this season due to a knee compression fracture, can Gonzalez return to his ’07 form?  For lack of a better option, I have Freel penciled in at center.  However, he’s injury-prone and already on thin ice.  Maybe Drew Stubbs deserves a look.  Or the Reds could sign a free agent, maybe someone like Jim Edmonds (who can be useful if he doesn’t face southpaws).  Mark Kotsay could also work. A simpler solution, as many commenters below have noted, would be Dickerson in center and a free agent left fielder signed.

Encarnacion’s defense at third base is not pretty.  I would love to see Walt Jocketty make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre.  I’ll let you speculate on scenarios.

The Reds’ rotation has a chance to be excellent next year without outside additions.  Arroyo, Harang, and Cueto all posted ERAs above 4.60 in ’08.  However, Arroyo and Harang finished strong and Cueto was solid for a rookie.  Throw in Volquez and a healthy Owings and the Reds could be tough one through five.  Thompson and Bailey provide more depth than most teams can boast.

Bailey could be trade bait, perhaps offered to Texas for a catcher.  But the Reds intend to give Hanigan a shot, and I like that plan.  As for the excess cash, where to spend it?  I don’t see needs beyond a backup catcher and veteran center fielder.  I suppose some dough can be spent to re-sign or replace Jeremy Affeldt as the go-to lefty.  And maybe Hairston will re-up at a reasonable rate.  But if I’m Walt Jocketty, I’m only tinkering in my first winter as Reds GM (aside from the Beltre idea).  This team has sleeper potential.

Another Year For Ricciardi

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9/25/08: Griffin was correct; the Gaston extension implied another year for GM J.P. Ricciardi.  Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Godfrey announced today that Ricciardi will be back for the ’09 season.  You have to figure he’s gone if the Jays don’t reach the playoffs next year.  Will Ricciardi’s job status affect his offseason plans?

9/17/08: According to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, the Blue Jays will announce an extension for manager Cito Gaston soon.  Griffin believes that the timing of the announcement indicates that GM J.P. Ricciardi will be back for the 2009 season.  The team’s recent success apparently convinced the Jays to give Ricciardi one more chance.

If he does stay, Ricciardi will have to find a starting shortstop and decide whether to offer more money/years to A.J. Burnett.

Will Mike Mussina Retire?

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Roch Kubatko recently spoke to Hall of Famer Jim Palmer, who recently spoke to Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina.  When Palmer asked Mussina if he’d play in 2009, Mussina replied, "I don’t think so."

Everything I’ve read says Mussina doesn’t care about 300 wins.  With 31 more to go, the plateau may require three more seasons.  Regardless, it’d be a shame to see Moose retire when he’s clearly not finished as a pitcher.  It’d also throw a wrench in the Yankees’ plans, as they’d probably like to bring him back on a one-year deal at $12-14MM.

Harsh Comments From Orlando Cabrera

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In case there was any doubt Orlando Cabrera will not re-sign with the White Sox this winter, he made all kinds of critical comments about his teammates on the radio recently.  The Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley is opinionated in the piece, basically saying Cabrera has no right to question his teammates’ attitude.

Cabrera, 34 in November, once again hits free agency at an excellent time.  The market for shortstops is thin.  Cabrera’s hitting .283/.336/.369 in 702 plate appearances.  Defensively, the Fielding Bible’s plus/minus system says he’s made two more plays than the average shortstop this year.  That’s about middle of the pack.  Cabrera is earning $9MM this year.

Mariners Rumors: Ibanez, Beltre, Ichiro

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More fine work from Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times as he takes a look at the future of the Mariners.  A few notes:

  • Raul Ibanez names winning as his top priority, like most players.  He’ll still entertain a possible return to Seattle, but it seems likely a more competitive team will make a solid offer.
  • Adrian Beltre doesn’t like the idea of playing for a rebuilding club in ’09, but he’s under contract with the Ms at a reasonable $12MM.  Does it make sense to trade him and let Ibanez walk, opting for a full-out rebuild?  Or do the Mariners need to keep Beltre around to avoid further embarrassment?
  • Ichiro Suzuki is not well-liked in the clubhouse.  Is he a selfish player, or is he being treated unfairly because of the language barrier?
  • The Mariners have questions about their middle-infield tandem of Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt.  Lopez has defensive issues; Betancourt isn’t much with the bat.  Actually Betancourt may have defensive problems as well, in particular going to his left.

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