Olney On The Free Agent Market
ESPN’s Buster Olney has a great blog post up today with his musings about this winter’s free agent market. Let’s take a look.
- Industry people believe the current state of the economy might temper offseason spending. We’ve already heard the rumblings that typically high-spending teams like the Angels, Tigers and Mariners backing off or holding the line on payroll.
- Olney feels C.C. Sabathia could draw a $140MM offer from the Yankees, but something more in the $90-100MM range from the Angels or Dodgers. So he may have to decide whether playing close to home is worth $30-50MM.
- Olney extols the virtues of Derek Lowe, who could get a deal comparable to Jason Schmidt‘s three years/$47MM. That was two years, ago though…I think Scott Boras gets Lowe $18MM a year.
- Olney considers this a strong market for starting pitching. Maybe so, but we might see a lot of multiyear deals for injury-risk hurlers after Sabathia and Lowe sign.
- Olney likes the match between the Cardinals and Brian Fuentes. Other teams that could consider Fuentes: the Rays, Indians, and Brewers.
- Olney is convinced the Yankees will offer Bobby Abreu arbitration but nothing more. Abreu is comfortably set to earn Type A status. If the Yanks offer arbitration, they’ll either get Abreu for one year and $16MM or so or they’ll get two draft picks. In contrast, Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman have said they expect the Yankees to let Abreu leave.
- Olney guesses the Red Sox will offer Jason Varitek two guaranteed years with a vesting option for 2011. The Boston Globe’s Amalie Benjamin wrote in August that she expects Varitek to re-sign.
Odds and Ends: Patterson, Lowry, Alvarez
Today’s linkage…
- Brewers fans, act quickly to snag free tickets to tonight’s game courtesy of Eric Gagne. Nice gesture.
- Of course Ned Colletti wants to re-sign Manny Ramirez. It’s just a question of dollars and years. Does Manny get the rumored 4/100 he might desire?
- The Jays locked manager Cito Gaston up through 2010.
- Richard Griffin says the Blue Jays will be better for it if they lose A.J. Burnett. Meanwhile, River Ave. Blues is open to the idea of the Yankees signing him.
- No, Corey Patterson is not dating Dusty Baker’s daughter. And Baker says he wasn’t behind the signing, either.
- The Reds might not be in the market for a catcher this winter, if they go with Ryan Hanigan as the starter in ’09.
- The Mariners officially founded the 100/100 club.
- Peter Abraham sees the Yankees going with Brett Gardner as the center fielder in 2009. Peter Gammons is "convinced he is going to be an everyday center fielder."
- Sam Mellinger discusses a way to drastically shake up the Royals: trade both Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria for loads of young, cheap players. As he notes, the strategy could work out but might cause a fan revolt.
- Andrew Baggarly wonders if Noah Lowry‘s injury problems could prevent a Matt Cain trade. Also, Baggarly sees a non-tender in Kevin Correia‘s future.
- Frank Coonelly suggested Pedro Alvarez‘s new deal is comparable in value to the original. Scott Boras then jumped on the conference call to say it was a favorable change, and much different from the original. Additionally, Coonelly contacted Baseball America’s Jim Callis to dispute the idea of a premeditated plan to negotiate with Alvarez after the deadline.
- The Marlins will focus on improving their defense this winter.
Yankees Or Retirement For Pettitte, Again
Andy Pettitte has been pitching through shoulder pain in recent months, and he’s finally been shut down. He told reporters yesterday he will choose between the Yankees and retirement for 2009. Pettitte added that the Yankees "pretty much let it be known they’d like to have me back."
Pettitte would probably not require the same $16MM he did this year (George King says a the Yankees want him back for "a lot less money.") If he’s willing to pitch for $12MM or so, I don’t know why the Yankees wouldn’t bring him back.
Snow To Retire A Giant
The Giants’ big announcement regarding J.T. Snow was not a managerial change. Instead, Snow signed a one-day Major League contract so he can retire a Giant. While it’s a real contract, Snow won’t actually play in Saturday’s game.
Snow had finished his career in 2006 with 53 plate appearances as a Red Sox. His finest season was 1997, when he hit .281/.387/.510 for the Giants.
Pedro Alvarez Grievance Resolved
5:47pm: Alvarez’s contract is signed.
3:26pm: MLB just issued a press release…the dispute has been resolved. Alvarez and Eric Hosmer are free to play ball.
10:06am: According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Pedro Alvarez and Scott Boras are in downtown Pittsburgh this morning. The union’s grievance might be dropped today (testimony has been postponed), and Alvarez should take his physical and sign the contract soon.
A few questions to ponder. If Alvarez wins ROY in 2010, will all be forgiven in Pittsburgh? And will the Pirates be willing to use their early first-round pick next year on a Boras client?
Odds and Ends: Santos, Blalock, Lo Duca
Let’s dig through today’s rumor bin…
- The Jays claimed southpaw Reid Santos off waivers from the Indians. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince says the Indians are clearing room on their 40-man roster in preparation for the winter.
- Dejan Kovacevic has yet to observe why new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche is so highly regarded.
- Jamey Newberg feels Hank Blalock‘s $6.2MM option for ’09 is an easy call to exercise.
- J.C. Bradbury sees a rift within the Braves organization.
- Craig Calcaterra dismisses the silly idea of Frank McCourt suing Andruw Jones.
- Paul Lo Duca would prefer a non-guaranteed deal next year if he gets a chance to compete for a starting job.
- Ian O’Connor doesn’t see Alex Rodriguez finishing his contract as a Yankee.
- C.C. Sabathia just wants to be happy in his next destination.
- Will the Braves re-sign Mike Hampton this winter? Is it possible both he and Carl Pavano are useful pitchers in 2009?
Todd Jones Retires
Stan McNeal of Sporting News says reliever Todd Jones plans to announce his retirement tomorrow. He pitched for eight teams, racking up 319 saves in 1,072 innings.
Mariners Rumors: Johjima, Washburn, Ibanez
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times has all sorts of good Mariners info today.
- Kenji Johjima‘s three-year, $24MM extension was mandated by Japanese ownership. Johjima has an opt-out clause after the ’09 season, but only in the event of a serious family issue. The extension looks like a sunk cost for Seattle before it even begins.
- Backup catcher Jamie Burke is a free agent after the season. He would like to return but needs to discuss playing time with the Ms.
- The Mariners’ direction remains unclear – is 2009 a rebuilding year? If so, why didn’t they swap Jarrod Washburn and his contract for a young Twins pitcher? Even if ’09 isn’t a rebuilding year that would’ve made sense.
- The Mariners still have interest in re-signing Raul Ibanez. He may prefer to sign with a contender, leaving the Mariners with even less power.
- Baker believes that with Erik Bedard‘s injury (and possible non-tender), the team should focus on contending around 2011. After the ’11 season, Felix Hernandez will reach free agency.
Rockies’ Hampton Buyout Prefunded
Gerry Fraley wrote about Mike Hampton in the Rocky Mountain News a few weeks ago. One notable statement:
"The Rockies will be free of a financial obligation once they pay the $6 million buyout on his option for 2009 – a sum that was prefunded so it won’t impact Rockies finances."
In my Rockies Offseason Outlook, the $6MM was included when I said the team had $77.6MM committed before arbitration raises.
Since the buyout won’t impact finances, the Rox actually have about $71.6MM committed before possible arbitration raises to Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Willy Taveras, Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Grilli, and Cory Sullivan. So figure the Rockies will come in a bit under $80MM to keep their current players (aside from free agents).
Even going from this year’s $68.6MM to $80MM in ’09 would be a 16.6% increase in payroll. To add players, they’ll have to go even higher or perhaps trade Atkins. The Rockies drew over 2.65MM fans this year, up from last year’s 2.38MM.
Will Marlins Trade Hermida?
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post spoke to Marlins right fielder Jeremy Hermida yesterday. Hermida knows the Marlins will be active this winter, and he could be on the trading block again.
Hermida will turn 25 in January. With three-plus years of service time under his belt, he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Instead of $400K, Hermida will earn perhaps $2-4MM in 2009. Trade rumors first surfaced this summer, when Hermida nearly became a Pirate in a three-team Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay deal.
2007 was a very promising year for Hermida – he hit .338/.403/.559 over the season’s final three months. An MVP-caliber 2008 seemed possible. Instead, Hermida struggled to a .245/.319/.405 line in a career-high 550 plate appearances. He’s been particularly bad since August. Defensively, he’s been slightly above average.
Trading Hermida now will be selling low, but the Marlins could save a few million. Still, three years of Hermida won’t come cheap. Tossing out a few possible suitors: the Mariners, Nationals, Mets, and Braves.