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Archives for September 2009

Free Agent Market: Center Fielders

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Today let's review the upcoming free agent market for center fielders.

  • Scott Podsednik is your OBP leader at .352 (he's got 353 innings in center field this year).  Mike Cameron is next at .351.  Coco Crisp (.336, club option), Reed Johnson (.327), and Marlon Byrd (.324) follow.  Byrd, Johnson, and Crisp reached base more frequently last year.  Rick Ankiel was useful at .337.
  • Byrd's .476 SLG leads the group.  Cameron (.445) is the other power consideration.  Andruw Jones has not played center field this year, but he owns a .477 SLG in 303 plate appearances.  Last year, Ankiel's .506 SLG was second among all center fielders.  Dealing with groin and shoulder injuries, Ankiel has limped to a .233/.285/.392 line in 376 PAs this year.
  • Defensively, Crisp leads in UZR/150 in a limited sample.  Cameron comes up a positive, and Byrd about average.  Heading into the season, John Dewan of The Fielding Bible ranked Corey Patterson, Cameron, and Jones among his top ten defensive center fielders in the game.  Patterson hit .292/.333/.478 in 113 Triple A games this year.
  • Rocco Baldelli, Ankiel, Crisp, and Patterson are the youngest in this group.  Baldelli has played only 56 innings in center for the Red Sox.  He has a .456 SLG in his 149 PA sample.
  • Ankiel and Jones are represented by Scott Boras.
  • Byrd, Cameron, and Johnson profile as Type B free agents (there are no Type As).
  • He'll turn 37 in January, but Cameron appears to be the best all-around free agent center field option.  Ankiel might be interesting on a one-year deal.  Byrd has a respectable bat and can handle all three outfield positions.  Crisp has something to prove after undergoing surgery on both shoulders this summer.  The Royals will decide between his $8MM option and a $500K buyout, once they examine his medical records.

Hendrickson Hopes To Return To Orioles

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Orioles lefty Mark Hendrickson sports a 4.43 ERA, 55 strikeouts, and 27 walks in 83.3 innings this year.  He struggled in his seven starts, but has a 3.44 ERA out of the bullpen.  According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Hendrickson relishes his role as a leader on the young club and hopes to return in 2010.  Plus, he lives in York, Pennsylvania, about an hour from Camden Yards.    

Given the strong competition for spots in the Orioles' 2010 rotation, Hendrickson would probably fit as a reliever next year.  He earned $1.5MM in '09, a contract he signed on the last day of December.

Odds & Ends: Nationals’ Catcher, Brewers’ GM, Uggla

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Some food for thought, even though you shouldn't be snacking so close to bed…

  • With Jesus Flores undergoing surgery for a torn labrum, putting his 2010 start date into question, Washington manager Jim Riggleman said the Nationals may have to seek another catcher. According to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, Rod Barajas may be a good fit, "because he is an excellent handler of pitchers." Barajas also has a bit of power, and would be a decent fit. Phil Wood of MASN speculates that Brian Schneider could return to Washington, noting that Schneider is "just 32, and would likely have multiple offers", though anyone who has seen Schneider hit this season would assume those offers won't be to play baseball. A shame, since Schneider is one of the best clubhouse guys in the game, has been a tremendous mentor to the younger Mets' players, and will be a tremendous manager if he pursues it.
  • Brewers' owner Mark Attanasio strongly denied that General Manager Doug Melvin's job is in jeopardy. "It seems like a cop-out to me to blow everything up and start from scratch," Attanasio told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. "We've built this team around a good core of players now for five years and we took a step back [this year]. We'd like to take two steps forward next year."
  • Dan Uggla is sad that the Marlins are likely going to trade him this offseason.
  • Carl Crawford and Pat Burrell "had words" in Tampa Bay clubhouse, and not polite ones like "please" or "thank you."

What To Expect From Prince Fielder?

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The opinions range far and wide on what the Brewers should do with Prince Fielder, and with good reason. His positives are extremely positive, while the red flags are positively scarlet.

Let's start with the basics. Fielder is signed for $10.5MM in 2010, with the Brewers controlling his rights through 2011. Assuming he continues to hit like Prince Fielder, that means 2011 will likely be even more expensive than 2010 for the Brewers.

Fielder is having a tremendous 2009 season. He turned 25 in May, and has posted a line of .298/.410/.588 in 636 plate appearances entering Wednesday. By any standard, he is an elite offensive player.

But the concern most people have with Fielder is his size. Fielder is quite, shall we say, Rubenesque, and the worry is how such a player will both age and continue to play first base.

On the fielding side, the evidence we have is a bit surprising. Fielder's UZR actually improved significantly in 2009. After posting a -8.8 runs and -8.5 runs in 2007 and 2008, respectively, Fielder is at -0.7 in 2009- a stone's throw from average.

And should the Brewers decide to rip up his current deal and sign him long-term this winter, the contract would begin with his age-26 season. To get a sense of how someone with Fielder's body type will age, one need look no further than his father, Cecil. The elder Fielder, of course, returned from Japan for his age-26 season, and shocked the baseball world with 51 home runs. He hit 258 home runs over his age 26-32 seasons, playing primarily first base, not designated hitter.

In other words, if Prince is anything like his father, that's a lot of offense to give up, no matter how badly the Brewers need starting pitching.

Discussion: New York Yankees’ 2010 Rotation

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So let's say you're the New York Yankees. You've got to be feeling pretty good right now. The Yankees have the best record in baseball, a 6.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox, and all but have a ticket punched to the postseason.

But what to make of the 2010 outlook in the starting rotation? There's a lot of uncertainty there.

The top is set in stone, of course, with C.C. Sabathia signed for another six years of his seven-year, $161MM deal. And, like it or not, the mercurial A.J. Burnett has another four seasons left on his five-year, $82MM deal.

Who's next? Well, assuming he returns to longer outings without any problem, Joba Chamberlain should be good to pitch a full season, finally, in 2010. No Joba rules, no pitch counts, just full-out Joba.

That's only three of five pitchers, however.

So what's to be done for slots four and five? Andy Pettitte has been solid this season, with a typical Pettitte season, 178 1/3 innings of a 4.14 ERA. He'll be a free agent in a winter with very little frontline starting pitching. Will the Yankees want to give Pettitte a multi-year deal if necessary? He'll be 38 next June.

For the fifth spot, Sergio Mitre is the answer, but only if the question is, "How do we improve the American League batting average next season?"

Phil Hughes is the most talented option, but he's thrown only 79 1/3 innings this season (98 2/3 including the minor leagues), and no more than 146 in a season (and that was in 2006).

So how should they fill out the rotation in The Bronx?

Free Agent Market: Left Fielders

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Looking to fill a left field vacancy?  Obviously this is where you'll find the mashers and the big bucks.  Here's a look at the free agent market…

  • OBP leaders: Manny Ramirez (.418, player option), Matt Holliday (.391), Jason Bay (.385), Gary Sheffield (.371), and Johnny Damon (.366).  Last year's left field OBP leaderboard looks very similar, except Sheff played only 47 innings in the field.  Bobby Abreu, mainly a right fielder, has a .398 OBP.
  • SLG leaders are the same: Manny (.552), Bay (.534), Holliday (.525), Damon (.497), and Sheffield (.457).  Marlon Byrd, more of a center fielder, checks in at .477. 
  • Carl Crawford is probably the best defensive left fielder, but no one expects the Rays to turn down his $10MM club option.  Reed Johnson, Holliday, and Damon made John Dewan's top ten list heading into the season.  UZR/150 likes Rick Ankiel, Randy Winn, Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark DeRosa, and Endy Chavez in limited left field duty this year.
  • Players such as Abreu, Sheffield, DeRosa, Byrd, Winn, Ankiel, Hideki Matsui, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye, Brian Giles, Vladimir Guerrero, and Xavier Nady could be considered left field candidates despite more time spent at other positions recently.
  • Bay, Abreu, Damon, Guerrero, Dye, Holliday, and Manny currently project as Type A free agents.  Nady, Byrd, Matsui, Giles, Garret Anderson, Winn, Fernando Tatis, Johnson, and Sheffield project as Bs.  Of course not all of these players will be offered arbitration.
  • Anderson, Damon, Holliday, Manny, Ankiel, Jones, and Nady are Scott Boras clients.
  • Wily Mo Pena, Holliday, Ankiel, and Austin Kearns (club option) are the youngest available left field candidates.

White Sox Release Bartolo Colon

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The White Sox released pitcher Bartolo Colon today, according to VP of communications Scott Reifert (via Twitter).  The big righty signed for $1MM in January and debuted late due to offseason surgery for bone chips in his elbow. A knee injury popped up in June, and Colon disappeared for a while instead of rehabbing in Charlotte.  He was activated in July, but the elbow starting barking soon after. 

Colon's make-good one-year deals with the White Sox and Red Sox were disappointments, so the 36-year-old will have to settle for a minor league contract next year.  He didn't pitch all that badly when he was out there, with a 4.09 ERA in those 19 starts.

Heyman’s Free Agent Predictions

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SI's Jon Heyman, an agent, and a GM predicted contracts of the top 24 free agents.

  • The agent's predictions seem to run high, except in the cases of Bobby Abreu and Billy Wagner.  I'm guessing the agent isn't Peter Greenberg or Bean Stringfellow.
  • On the flip side the GM seems light on several predictions – $80MM over five years for Matt Holliday, and $60MM over four years for John Lackey.  He found Rich Harden too unpredictable to even hazard a guess.
  • The agent predicted identical seven-year, $147MM contracts for Jason Bay and Holliday.  The agent thinks Bay will get $21MM a year, but the GM guesses $15MM. 
  • I have to disagree with Heyman's three-year, $36MM suggestion for Jarrod Washburn.  The other two suggest $18MM over two years for the Scott Boras client.
  • All three see Manny Ramirez picking up his $20MM player option.
  • The agent and the GM see one-year deals for Erik Bedard, Brett Myers, Adrian Beltre, and Rick Ankiel.  Could be some nice value there.

Odds & Ends: Chipper, Ordonez, Schultz

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Links for Wednesday…

Cubs Rumors: Piniella, Grabow, Johnson

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A few 2010 Cubs notes… 

  • ESPN's Buster Olney says Cubs manager Lou Piniella "has told others that one way or the other, 2010 will be his last season managing."  Olney wonders if Piniella may have just been speaking out of frustration.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says Piniella wants a "top-of-the-order speed guy" as well as a "middle-of-the-order run producer."  However, the Cubs' 2010 payroll under new owner Tom Ricketts is not yet known.  Wittenmyer says Piniella and GM Jim Hendry will be back next year.  Which players would you like them to target?
  • Wittenmyer says the Cubs want potential free agents John Grabow and Reed Johnson back on the right terms, but may be less inclined to retain pitchers Rich Harden and Kevin Gregg.  Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune has a headline saying Johnson wants to return next year, but doesn't address it in the body of his article.
  • Wittenmyer and Sullivan both reject the report from ESPN's Bruce Levine yesterday saying the Cubs have begun extension talks with Grabow.  Pet peeve: Wittenmyer and Sullivan elected not to cite Levine's report specifically.  Anyway, Sullivan says the Cubs "are expected to re-sign the left-hander to a two- or three-year deal" even if they're not talking yet.

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