Archives for September 2009

The Mariners have agreed to sit down with Felix Hernandez's agent after the season to discuss a multiyear contract extension, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  Felix's agent, Alan Nero, stressed the lack of urgency since Hernandez is already under team control through 2011.  Nero certainly knows that Hernandez's maximum payday would come from going year-to-year two more times and then putting a 25 year-old ace on the free agent market.

Baker speculates that Hernandez's 2010 salary will shoot into the $10MM range, since it's the pitcher's second arbitration year and he's finishing a breakout season.  Baker notes:

If Hernandez and the Mariners do reach a long-term deal, buying out his final two arbitration years and extending him three to five beyond that, he could become Seattle's first $100MM player.  The Mariners say they want a deal, but have previously implied that Hernandez's camp is reluctant to sign beyond 2011. So far, the two sides have yet to even hammer out parameters for their talks.

If Baker's read is accurate, it means Hernandez is willing to sacrifice financial security and gamble that he'll remain relatively healthy for the next two seasons.  Most promising young starting pitchers have not chosen that route.  If Felix does, his free agent contract may be historic.  C.C. Sabathia owns the record free agent contract for a pitcher: $161MM over seven years, signed in December of last year when Sabathia was 28.

One positive for the Mariners is that Nero also represents Jon Lester, who signed an extension with the Red Sox in March buying out all of his arbitration years and one free agent year while giving a club option on a second. 

As for Hernandez's 2010 salary, I believe the current record for a pitcher in his second arbitration year is Cole Hamels' $6.65MM salary for 2010.  It's an imperfect comparable since Hamels was a Super Two player and that salary comes in the middle of a three-year contract.

There are few young pitchers in the majors today more talented than Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, and the Mariners know it. There has been talk that the team intends to make a strong effort this offseason to sign Hernandez to an extension, but they did listen to trade offers for the right-hander in July. The M's have Hernandez under team control until 2011, when he becomes eligible for free agency for the first time.

The 23-year-old is a Cy Young candidate this season, posting a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 224.1 IP, while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Considering his age, his production to date, and his affordable contract (at least for two more years), it's hard to think of many players whose trade value will be higher this winter.

This brings us to tonight's discussion question: should the Mariners be shopping Felix after the season? They're set to finish in just third place in the AL West this year, but they've made strides after winning only 61 games in 2008. The Angels potentially could lose some of their main contributors (John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero) via free agency, and the Rangers' ownership uncertainty raises questions about their financial flexibility for 2010. Next season could be a prime opportunity for the Mariners to make a playoff run, rather than to deal their best player for rebuilding pieces.

On the other hand, without a couple of new bats in 2010, the Mariners' offense, which this season ranks dead last in the American League in OBP and SLG, won't give Felix and the rest of the staff the support they need to contend. Plus, the haul Seattle could demand in exchange for Hernandez would be massive.

So what should the Mariners' next move be? How much do they offer Hernandez to stay in Seattle? And if he turns down their best offer, do they open the floodgates for trade proposals?